@article {7489, title = {Ectopy on a Single 12-Lead ECG, Incident Cardiac Myopathy, and Death in the Community.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {6}, year = {2017}, month = {2017 Aug 03}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation and heart failure are 2 of the most common diseases, yet ready means to identify individuals at risk are lacking. The 12-lead ECG is one of the most accessible tests in medicine. Our objective was to determine whether a premature atrial contraction observed on a standard 12-lead ECG would predict atrial fibrillation and mortality and whether a premature ventricular contraction would predict heart failure and mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We utilized the CHS (Cardiovascular Health) Study, which followed 5577 participants for a median of 12~years, as the primary cohort. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study), the replication cohort, captured data from 15~792 participants over a median of 22~years. In the CHS, multivariable analyses revealed that a baseline 12-lead ECG premature atrial contraction predicted a 60\% increased risk of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95\% CI, 1.3-2.0; P<0.001) and a premature ventricular contraction predicted a 30\% increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95\% CI, 1.0-1.6; P=0.021). In the negative control analyses, neither predicted incident myocardial infarction. A premature atrial contraction was associated with a 30\% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95\% CI, 1.1-1.5; P=0.008) and a premature ventricular contraction was associated with a 20\% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95\% CI, 1.0-1.3; P=0.044). Similarly statistically significant results for each analysis were also observed in ARIC.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on a single standard ECG, a premature atrial contraction predicted incident atrial fibrillation and death and a premature ventricular contraction predicted incident heart failure and death, suggesting that this commonly used test may predict future disease.

}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.117.006028}, author = {Nguyen, Kaylin T and Vittinghoff, Eric and Dewland, Thomas A and Dukes, Jonathan W and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Stein, Phyllis K and Gottdiener, John S and Alonso, Alvaro and Chen, Lin Y and Psaty, Bruce M and Heckbert, Susan R and Marcus, Gregory M} }