@article {7923, title = {Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies.}, journal = {Eur Heart J}, year = {2018}, month = {2018 Nov 22}, abstract = {

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after {\textquoteright}recalibration{\textquoteright}, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.

Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at {\textquoteright}high{\textquoteright} 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10\%, 52\%, and 41\%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10\%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39\% of individuals aged >=40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24\% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.

Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

}, issn = {1522-9645}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehy653}, author = {Pennells, Lisa and Kaptoge, Stephen and Wood, Angela and Sweeting, Mike and Zhao, Xiaohui and White, Ian and Burgess, Stephen and Willeit, Peter and Bolton, Thomas and Moons, Karel G M and van der Schouw, Yvonne T and Selmer, Randi and Khaw, Kay-Tee and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Assmann, Gerd and Amouyel, Philippe and Salomaa, Veikko and Kivimaki, Mika and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge G and Blaha, Michael J and Kuller, Lewis H and Brenner, Hermann and Gillum, Richard F and Meisinger, Christa and Ford, Ian and Knuiman, Matthew W and Rosengren, Annika and Lawlor, Debbie A and V{\"o}lzke, Henry and Cooper, Cyrus and Mar{\'\i}n Iba{\~n}ez, Alejandro and Casiglia, Edoardo and Kauhanen, Jussi and Cooper, Jackie A and Rodriguez, Beatriz and Sundstr{\"o}m, Johan and Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth and Dankner, Rachel and Nietert, Paul J and Davidson, Karina W and Wallace, Robert B and Blazer, Dan G and Bj{\"o}rkelund, Cecilia and Donfrancesco, Chiara and Krumholz, Harlan M and Nissinen, Aulikki and Davis, Barry R and Coady, Sean and Whincup, Peter H and J{\o}rgensen, Torben and Ducimetiere, Pierre and Trevisan, Maurizio and Engstr{\"o}m, Gunnar and Crespo, Carlos J and Meade, Tom W and Visser, Marjolein and Kromhout, Daan and Kiechl, Stefan and Daimon, Makoto and Price, Jackie F and G{\'o}mez de la C{\'a}mara, Agustin and Wouter Jukema, J and Lamarche, Beno{\^\i}t and Onat, Altan and Simons, Leon A and Kavousi, Maryam and Ben-Shlomo, Yoav and Gallacher, John and Dekker, Jacqueline M and Arima, Hisatomi and Shara, Nawar and Tipping, Robert W and Roussel, Ronan and Brunner, Eric J and Koenig, Wolfgang and Sakurai, Masaru and Pavlovic, Jelena and Gansevoort, Ron T and Nagel, Dorothea and Goldbourt, Uri and Barr, Elizabeth L M and Palmieri, Luigi and Nj{\o}lstad, Inger and Sato, Shinichi and Monique Verschuren, W M and Varghese, Cherian V and Graham, Ian and Onuma, Oyere and Greenland, Philip and Woodward, Mark and Ezzati, Majid and Psaty, Bruce M and Sattar, Naveed and Jackson, Rod and Ridker, Paul M and Cook, Nancy R and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Thompson, Simon G and Danesh, John and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele} }