@article {9409, title = {A self-report risk index to predict occurrence of dementia in three independent cohorts of older adults: the ANU-ADRI.}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {9}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, pages = {e86141}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Australian National University AD Risk Index (ANU-ADRI, http://anuadri.anu.edu.au) is a self-report risk index developed using an evidence-based medicine approach to measure risk of Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s disease (AD). We aimed to evaluate the extent to which the ANU-ADRI can predict the risk of AD in older adults and to compare the ANU-ADRI to the dementia risk index developed from the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study for middle-aged cohorts.

METHODS: This study included three validation cohorts, i.e., the Rush Memory and Aging Study (MAP) (n = 903, age >=53 years), the Kungsholmen Project (KP) (n = 905, age >=75 years), and the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study (CVHS) (n = 2496, age >=65 years) that were each followed for dementia. Baseline data were collected on exposure to the 15 risk factors included in the ANU-ADRI of which MAP had 10, KP had 8 and CVHS had 9. Risk scores and C-statistics were computed for individual participants for the ANU-ADRI and the CAIDE index.

RESULTS: For the ANU-ADRI using available data, the MAP study c-statistic was 0{\textperiodcentered}637 (95\% CI 0{\textperiodcentered}596-0{\textperiodcentered}678), for the KP study it was 0{\textperiodcentered}740 (0{\textperiodcentered}712-0{\textperiodcentered}768) and for the CVHS it was 0{\textperiodcentered}733 (0{\textperiodcentered}691-0{\textperiodcentered}776) for predicting AD. When a common set of risk and protective factors were used c-statistics were 0.689 (95\% CI 0.650-0.727), 0.666 (0.628-0.704) and 0.734 (0.707-0.761) for MAP, KP and CVHS respectively. Results for CAIDE ranged from c-statistics of 0.488 (0.427-0.554) to 0.595 (0.565-0.625).

CONCLUSION: A composite risk score derived from the ANU-ADRI weights including 8-10 risk or protective factors is a valid, self-report tool to identify those at risk of AD and dementia. The accuracy can be further improved in studies including more risk factors and younger cohorts with long-term follow-up.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Dementia, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Risk, ROC Curve, Self Report}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0086141}, author = {Anstey, Kaarin J and Cherbuin, Nicolas and Herath, Pushpani M and Qiu, Chengxuan and Kuller, Lewis H and Lopez, Oscar L and Wilson, Robert S and Fratiglioni, Laura} }