@article {9586,
	title = {Machine learning models for blood pressure phenotypes combining multiple polygenic risk scores.},
	journal = {medRxiv},
	year = {2023},
	month = {2023 Dec 14},
	abstract = {<p>We construct non-linear machine learning (ML) prediction models for systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) using demographic and clinical variables and polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We developed a two-model ensemble, consisting of a baseline model, where prediction is based on demographic and clinical variables only, and a genetic model, where we also include PRSs. We evaluate the use of a linear versus a non-linear model at both the baseline and the genetic model levels and assess the improvement in performance when incorporating multiple PRSs. We report the ensemble model{\textquoteright}s performance as percentage variance explained (PVE) on a held-out test dataset. A non-linear baseline model improved the PVEs from 28.1\% to 30.1\% (SBP) and 14.3\% to 17.4\% (DBP) compared with a linear baseline model. Including seven PRSs in the genetic model computed based on the largest available GWAS of SBP/DBP improved the genetic model PVE from 4.8\% to 5.1\% (SBP) and 4.7\% to 5\% (DBP) compared to using a single PRS. Adding additional 14 PRSs computed based on two independent GWASs further increased the genetic model PVE to 6.3\% (SBP) and 5.7\% (DBP). PVE differed across self-reported race/ethnicity groups, with primarily all non-White groups benefitting from the inclusion of additional PRSs.</p>},
	doi = {10.1101/2023.12.13.23299909},
	author = {Hrytsenko, Yana and Shea, Benjamin and Elgart, Michael and Kurniansyah, Nuzulul and Lyons, Genevieve and Morrison, Alanna C and Carson, April P and Haring, Bernhard and Mitchel, Braxton D and Psaty, Bruce M and Jaeger, Byron C and Gu, C Charles and Kooperberg, Charles and Levy, Daniel and Lloyd-Jones, Donald and Choi, Eunhee and Brody, Jennifer A and Smith, Jennifer A and Rotter, Jerome I and Moll, Matthew and Fornage, Myriam and Simon, Noah and Castaldi, Peter and Casanova, Ramon and Chung, Ren-Hua and Kaplan, Robert and Loos, Ruth J F and Kardia, Sharon L R and Rich, Stephen S and Redline, Susan and Kelly, Tanika and O{\textquoteright}Connor, Timothy and Zhao, Wei and Kim, Wonji and Guo, Xiuqing and Der Ida Chen, Yii and Sofer, Tamar}
}
