@article {961, title = {Longitudinal association between depressive symptoms and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in older adults: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {167}, year = {2007}, month = {2007 Apr 23}, pages = {802-7}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Prospective studies indicate that a single self-report of high depressive symptoms is associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS: We tested whether a single report of high depressive symptoms, an increase in depressive symptoms, or persistently high depressive symptoms over time were associated with the development of diabetes in adults 65 years and older. Participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study completed the 10-item Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D) annually from 1989 to 1999. A single report of high depressive symptoms (CES-D score, >/=8), an increase in symptoms during follow-up (>/=5 from baseline), and persistently high symptoms (2 consecutive scores >/=8) were each studied in relation to incident diabetes, defined by initiation of diabetes control medications among participants who were free from diabetes at baseline (n = 4681).

RESULTS: The mean CES-D score at baseline was 4.5 (SD, 4.5). The incidence rate of diabetes was 4.4 per 1000 person-years. Following adjustment for baseline demographic characteristics and measures of physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, and C-reactive protein during follow-up, each measure of depressive symptoms was significantly associated with incident diabetes (high baseline CES-D score: hazard ratio, 1.6 [95\% confidence interval, 1.1-2.3]; CES-D score increase: hazard ratio, 1.5 [95\% confidence interval, 1.1-2.2]; and persistently high symptoms: hazard ratio, 1.5 [95\% confidence interval, 1.1-2.3]).

CONCLUSION: Older adults who reported higher depressive symptoms were more likely to develop diabetes than their counterparts; this association was not fully explained by risk factors for diabetes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Body Mass Index, C-Reactive Protein, Depression, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Drinking, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Smoking}, issn = {0003-9926}, doi = {10.1001/archinte.167.8.802}, author = {Carnethon, Mercedes R and Biggs, Mary L and Barzilay, Joshua I and Smith, Nicholas L and Vaccarino, Viola and Bertoni, Alain G and Arnold, Alice and Siscovick, David} } @article {1210, title = {Association between adiposity in midlife and older age and risk of diabetes in older adults.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {303}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Jun 23}, pages = {2504-12}, abstract = {

CONTEXT: Adiposity is a well-recognized risk factor for type 2 diabetes among young and middle-aged adults, but the relationship between body composition and type 2 diabetes is not well described among older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between adiposity, changes in adiposity, and risk of incident type 2 diabetes in adults 65 years of age and older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort study (1989-2007) of 4193 men and women 65 years of age and older in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Measures of adiposity were derived from anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance data at baseline and anthropometry repeated 3 years later.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident diabetes was ascertained based on use of antidiabetic medication or a fasting glucose level of 126 mg/dL or greater.

RESULTS: Over median follow-up of 12.4 years (range, 0.9-17.8 years), 339 cases of incident diabetes were ascertained (7.1/1000 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95\% confidence interval [CI]) of type 2 diabetes for participants in the highest quintile of baseline measures compared with those in the lowest was 4.3 (95\% CI, 2.9-6.5) for body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]), 3.0 (95\% CI, 2.0-4.3) for BMI at 50 years of age, 4.2 (95\% CI, 2.8-6.4) for weight, 4.0 (95\% CI, 2.6-6.0) for fat mass, 4.2 (95\% CI, 2.8-6.2) for waist circumference, 2.4 (95\% CI, 1.6-3.5) for waist-hip ratio, and 3.8 (95\% CI, 2.6-5.5) for waist-height ratio. However, when stratified by age, participants 75 years of age and older had HRs approximately half as large as those 65 to 74 years of age. Compared with weight-stable participants (+/-2 kg), those who gained the most weight from 50 years of age to baseline (> or = 9 kg), and from baseline to the third follow-up visit (> or = 6 kg), had HRs for type 2 diabetes of 2.8 (95\% CI, 1.9-4.3) and 2.0 (95\% CI, 1.1-3.7), respectively. Participants with a greater than 10-cm increase in waist size from baseline to the third follow-up visit had an HR of type 2 diabetes of 1.7 (95\% CI, 1.1-2.8) compared with those who gained or lost 2 cm or less.

CONCLUSION: Among older adults, overall and central adiposity, and weight gain during middle age and after the age of 65 years are associated with risk of diabetes.

}, keywords = {Adiposity, Age Factors, Aged, Body Mass Index, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States, Weight Gain}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2010.843}, author = {Biggs, Mary L and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Luchsinger, Jos{\'e} A and Ix, Joachim H and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Newman, Anne B and de Boer, Ian H and Strotmeyer, Elsa S and Mozaffarian, Dariush and Siscovick, David S} } @article {1207, title = {Diabetes and coronary heart disease as risk factors for mortality in older adults.}, journal = {Am J Med}, volume = {123}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Jun}, pages = {556.e1-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes has been described as a coronary heart disease (CHD) "risk equivalent." We tested whether cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates were similar between participants with prevalent CHD vs diabetes in an older adult population in whom both glucose disorders and preexisting atherosclerosis are common.

METHODS: The Cardiovascular Health Study is a longitudinal study of men and women (n=5784) aged > or =65 years at baseline who were followed from baseline (1989/1992-1993) through 2005 for mortality. Diabetes was defined by fasting plasma glucose > or =7.0 mmol/L or use of diabetes control medications. Prevalent CHD was determined by confirmed history of myocardial infarction, angina, or coronary revascularization.

RESULTS: Following multivariable adjustment for other cardiovascular disease risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis, CHD mortality risk was similar between participants with CHD alone vs diabetes alone (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.30). The proportion of mortality attributable to prevalent diabetes (population-attributable risk percent=8.4\%) and prevalent CHD (6.7\%) was similar in women, but the proportion of mortality attributable to CHD (16.5\%) as compared with diabetes (6.4\%) was markedly higher in men. Patterns were similar for cardiovascular disease mortality. By contrast, the adjusted relative hazard of total mortality was lower among participants with CHD alone (HR 0.85, 95\% CI, 0.75-0.96) as compared with those who had diabetes alone.

CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, diabetes alone confers a risk for cardiovascular mortality similar to that from established clinical CHD. The public health burden of both diabetes and CHD is substantial, particularly among women.

}, keywords = {Aged, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Risk Factors, Sex Distribution, Survival Rate, Time Factors, United States}, issn = {1555-7162}, doi = {10.1016/j.amjmed.2009.11.023}, author = {Carnethon, Mercedes R and Biggs, Mary L and Barzilay, Joshua and Kuller, Lewis H and Mozaffarian, Dariush and Mukamal, Kenneth and Smith, Nicholas L and Siscovick, David} } @article {1193, title = {Parity and the association with diabetes in older women.}, journal = {Diabetes Care}, volume = {33}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Aug}, pages = {1778-82}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of parity with diabetes and markers of glucose homeostasis in older women.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from the female participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a longitudinal cohort of adults aged >or=65 years. These data included an assessment of parity (baseline) and fasting serum levels of glucose, insulin, and medication use (baseline and follow-up). We estimated both the cross-sectional relationship of parity with baseline diabetes and the relationship of parity with incident diabetes.

RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, women with grand multiparity (>or=5 live births) had a higher prevalence of diabetes at baseline compared with those with fewer births and with nulliparous women (25 vs. 12 vs. 15\%; P < 0.001). In regression models controlling for age and race, grand multiparity was associated with increased prevalence of diabetes (prevalence ratio 1.57 [95\% CI 1.20-2.06]); with addition of demographic and clinical factors to the model, the association was attenuated (1.33 [1.00-1.77]). In final models that included body anthropometrics, the association was no longer significant (1.21 [0.86-1.49]). In those without diabetes at baseline, parity was not associated with incident diabetes or with fasting glucose; however, there was a modest association of parity with fasting insulin and homeostasis assessment model of insulin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS: Grand multiparity is associated with diabetes in elderly women in cross-sectional analyses. This relationship seems to be confounded and/or mediated by variation in body weight and sociodemographic factors by parity status. In older nondiabetic women, higher parity does not pose an ongoing risk of developing diabetes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Body Weight, Cross-Sectional Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Parity, Pregnancy, Socioeconomic Factors}, issn = {1935-5548}, doi = {10.2337/dc10-0015}, author = {Fowler-Brown, Angela G and de Boer, Ian H and Catov, Janet M and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Kamineni, Aruna and Kuller, Lewis H and Siscovick, David S and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {1339, title = {Fasting and post-glucose load measures of insulin resistance and risk of ischemic stroke in older adults.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {42}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Dec}, pages = {3347-51}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Few studies have assessed post-glucose load measures of insulin resistance and ischemic stroke risk, and data are sparse for older adults. We investigated whether fasting and post-glucose load measures of insulin resistance were related to incident ischemic stroke in nondiabetic, older adults.

METHODS: Participants were men and women in the Cardiovascular Health Study, age 65+ years and without prevalent diabetes or stroke at baseline, followed for 17 years for incident ischemic stroke. The Gutt insulin sensitivity index was calculated from baseline body weight and from fasting and 2-hour postload insulin and glucose; a lower Gutt index indicates higher insulin resistance.

RESULTS: Analyses included 3442 participants (42\% men) with a mean age of 73 years. Incidence of ischemic stroke was 9.8 strokes per 1000 person-years. The relative risk (RR) for lowest quartile versus highest quartile of Gutt index was 1.64 (95\% CI, 1.24-2.16), adjusted for demographics and prevalent cardiovascular and kidney disease. Similarly, the adjusted RR for highest quartile versus lowest quartile of 2-hour glucose was 1.84 (95\% CI, 1.39-2.42). In contrast, the adjusted RR for highest quartile versus lowest quartile of fasting insulin was 1.10 (95\% CI, 0.84-1.46).

CONCLUSIONS: In nondiabetic, older adults, insulin resistance measured by Gutt index or 2-hour glucose, but not by fasting insulin, was associated with risk of incident ischemic stroke.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Glucose, Body Mass Index, Brain Ischemia, Fasting, Female, Humans, Incidence, Insulin Resistance, Male, Risk, Stroke}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.620773}, author = {Thacker, Evan L and Psaty, Bruce M and McKnight, Barbara and Heckbert, Susan R and Longstreth, W T and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Meigs, James B and de Boer, Ian H and Boyko, Edward J and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Kizer, Jorge R and Tracy, Russell P and Smith, Nicholas L and Siscovick, David S} } @article {1402, title = {Association of weight status with mortality in adults with incident diabetes.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {308}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Aug 08}, pages = {581-90}, abstract = {

CONTEXT: Type 2 diabetes in normal-weight adults (body mass index [BMI] <25) is a representation of the metabolically obese normal-weight phenotype with unknown mortality consequences.

OBJECTIVE: To test the association of weight status with mortality in adults with new-onset diabetes in order to minimize the influence of diabetes duration and voluntary weight loss on mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Pooled analysis of 5 longitudinal cohort studies: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, 1990-2006; Cardiovascular Health Study, 1992-2008; Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, 1987-2011; Framingham Offspring Study, 1979-2007; and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 2002-2011. A total of 2625 participants with incident diabetes contributed 27,125 person-years of follow-up. Included were men and women (age >40 years) who developed incident diabetes based on fasting glucose 126 mg/dL or greater or newly initiated diabetes medication and who had concurrent measurements of BMI. Participants were classified as normal weight if their BMI was 18.5 to 24.99 or overweight/obese if BMI was 25 or greater.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS: The proportion of adults who were normal weight at the time of incident diabetes ranged from 9\% to 21\% (overall 12\%). During follow-up, 449 participants died: 178 from cardiovascular causes and 253 from noncardiovascular causes (18 were not classified). The rates of total, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality were higher in normal-weight participants (284.8, 99.8, and 198.1 per 10,000 person-years, respectively) than in overweight/obese participants (152.1, 67.8, and 87.9 per 10,000 person-years, respectively). After adjustment for demographic characteristics and blood pressure, lipid levels, waist circumference, and smoking status, hazard ratios comparing normal-weight participants with overweight/obese participants for total, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality were 2.08 (95\% CI, 1.52-2.85), 1.52 (95\% CI, 0.89-2.58), and 2.32 (95\% CI, 1.55-3.48), respectively.

CONCLUSION: Adults who were normal weight at the time of incident diabetes had higher mortality than adults who are overweight or obese.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Body Mass Index, Body Weight, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Overweight, United States}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2012.9282}, author = {Carnethon, Mercedes R and De Chavez, Peter John D and Biggs, Mary L and Lewis, Cora E and Pankow, James S and Bertoni, Alain G and Golden, Sherita H and Liu, Kiang and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Campbell-Jenkins, Brenda and Dyer, Alan R} } @article {1547, title = {Physical activity, change in biomarkers of myocardial stress and injury, and subsequent heart failure risk in older adults.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {60}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Dec 18}, pages = {2539-47}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between physical activity and changes in levels of highly sensitive troponin T (cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and the subsequent risk of the development of heart failure (HF) in community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: Higher baseline levels of cTnT and NT-proBNP and increases over time correlate with the risk of HF in older adults. Factors modifying these levels have not been identified.

METHODS: NT-proBNP and cTnT were measured at baseline and 2 to 3 years later in adults 65 years of age and older free of HF participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Self-reported physical activity and walking pace were combined into a composite score. An increase was prespecified for NT-proBNP as a >25\% increment from baseline to >=190 pg/ml and for cTnT as a >50\% increment from baseline in participants with detectable levels (>=3 pg/ml).

RESULTS: A total of 2,933 participants free of HF had NT-proBNP and cTnT measured at both time points. The probability of an increase in biomarker concentrations between baseline and follow-up visits was inversely related to the physical activity score. Compared with participants with the lowest score, those with the highest score had an odds ratio of 0.50 (95\% confidence interval: 0.33 to 0.77) for an increase in NT-proBNP and an odds ratio of 0.30 (95\% confidence interval: 0.16 to 0.55) for an increase in cTnT, after adjusting for comorbidities and baseline levels. A higher activity score associated with a lower long-term incidence of HF. Moreover, at each level of activity, an increase in either biomarker still identified those at higher risk.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that moderate physical activity has protective effects on early heart failure phenotypes, preventing cardiac injury and neurohormonal activation.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Motor Activity, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Risk Assessment, Troponin}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2012.08.1006}, author = {deFilippi, Christopher R and de Lemos, James A and Tkaczuk, Andrew T and Christenson, Robert H and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Seliger, Stephen L} } @article {6210, title = {The influence of sex on cardiovascular outcomes associated with diabetes among older black and white adults.}, journal = {J Diabetes Complications}, volume = {28}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 May-Jun}, pages = {316-22}, abstract = {

AIMS: It is unknown whether sex differences in the association of diabetes with cardiovascular outcomes vary by race. We examined sex differences in the associations of diabetes with incident congestive heart failure (CHF) and coronary heart disease (CHD) between older black and white adults.

METHODS: We analyzed data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling individuals aged >=65 from four US counties. We included 4817 participants (476 black women, 279 black men, 2447 white women and 1625 white men). We estimated event rates and multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHF, CHD, and all-cause mortality by Cox regression and competing risk analyses.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.5years, diabetes was more strongly associated with CHF among black women (HR, 2.42 [95\% CI, 1.70-3.40]) than black men (1.39 [0.83-2.34]); this finding did not reach statistical significance (P for interaction=0.08). Female sex conferred a higher risk for a composite outcome of CHF and CHD among black participants (2.44 [1.82-3.26]) vs. (1.44 [0.97-2.12]), P for interaction=0.03). There were no significant sex differences in the HRs associated with diabetes for CHF among whites, or for CHD or all-cause mortality among blacks or whites. The three-way interaction between sex, race, and diabetes on risk of cardiovascular outcomes was not significant (P=0.07).

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, sex did not modify the cardiovascular risk associated with diabetes among older black or white adults. However, our results suggest that a possible sex interaction among older blacks merits further study.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Complications, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Prospective Studies, Regression Analysis, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Survival Rate}, issn = {1873-460X}, doi = {10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2013.12.004}, author = {Vimalananda, Varsha G and Biggs, Mary L and Rosenzweig, James L and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Meigs, James B and Thacker, Evan L and Siscovick, David S and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6561, title = {Variation in resting heart rate over 4 years and the risks of myocardial infarction and death among older adults.}, journal = {Heart}, volume = {101}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jan}, pages = {132-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: Resting heart rate (RHR) is an established predictor of myocardial infarction (MI) and mortality, but the relationship between variation in RHR over a period of several years and health outcomes is unclear. We evaluated the relationship between long-term variation in RHR and the risks of incident MI and mortality among older adults.

METHODS: 1991 subjects without cardiovascular disease from the Cardiovascular Health Study were included. RHR was taken from resting ECGs at the first five annual study visits. RHR mean, trend and variation were estimated with linear regression. Subjects were followed for incident MI and death until December 2010. HRs for RHR mean, trend and variation are reported for differences of 10 bpm, 2 bpm/year and 2 bpm, respectively.

RESULTS: 262 subjects had an incident MI event (13\%) and 1326 died (67\%) during 12 years of median follow-up. In primary analyses adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, RHR mean (HR 1.12; 95\% CI 1.05 to 1.20) and variation (HR 1.08; 95\% CI 1.03 to 1.13) were associated with the risk of death while trend was not. None of the RHR variables were significantly associated with the risk of incident MI events; however, CIs were wide and the MI associations with RHR variables were not significantly different from the mortality associations. Adjusting for additional variables did not affect estimates, and there were no significant interactions with sex.

CONCLUSIONS: Variation in RHR over a period of several years represents a potential predictor of long-term mortality among older persons free of cardiovascular disease.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Rate, Humans, Incidence, Linear Models, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Outcome Assessment (Health Care), Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Rest, Risk Factors, Time, Washington}, issn = {1468-201X}, doi = {10.1136/heartjnl-2014-306046}, author = {Floyd, James S and Sitlani, Colleen M and Wiggins, Kerri L and Wallace, Erin and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Abbasi, Siddique A and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Siscovick, David S and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Heckbert, Susan R and McKnight, Barbara and Rice, Kenneth M and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {8626, title = {Performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Estimate Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Body Mass Index.}, journal = {JAMA Netw Open}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 10 01}, pages = {e2023242}, abstract = {

Importance: Obesity is a global health challenge and a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASVCD). Performance of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) for ASCVD risk by body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is unknown.

Objective: To assess performance of the PCE across clinical BMI categories.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used pooled individual-level data from 8 community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort studies with 10-year ASCVD event follow-up from 1996 to 2016. We included all adults ages 40 to 79 years without baseline ASCVD or statin use, resulting in a sample size of 37 311 participants. Data were analyzed from August 2017 to July 2020.

Exposures: Participant BMI category: underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5 to <25), overweight (25 to <30), mild obesity (30 to <35), and moderate to severe obesity (>=35).

Main Outcomes and Measures: Discrimination (Harrell C statistic) and calibration (Nam-D{\textquoteright}Agostino χ2 goodness-of-fit test) of the PCE across BMI categories. Improvement in discrimination and net reclassification with addition of BMI, waist circumference, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) to the PCE.

Results: Among 37 311 participants (mean [SD] age, 58.6 [11.8] years; 21 897 [58.7\%] women), 380 604 person-years of follow-up were conducted. Mean (SD) baseline BMI was 29.0 (6.2), and 360 individuals (1.0\%) were in the underweight category, 9937 individuals (26.6\%) were in the normal weight category, 13 601 individuals (36.4\%) were in the overweight category, 7783 individuals (20.9\%) were in the mild obesity category, and 5630 individuals (15.1\%) were in the moderate to severe obesity category. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) 10-year estimated ASCVD risk was 7.1\% (2.5\%-15.4\%), and 3709 individuals (9.9\%) developed ASCVD over a median (IQR) 10.8 [8.5-12.6] years. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk in the overall cohort (estimated/observed [E/O] risk ratio, 1.22; 95\% CI, 1.18-1.26) and across all BMI categories except the underweight category. Calibration was better near the clinical decision threshold in all BMI groups but worse among individuals with moderate or severe obesity (E/O risk ratio, 1.36; 95\% CI, 1.25-1.47) and among those with the highest estimated ASCVD risk >=20\%. The PCE C statistic overall was 0.760 (95\% CI, 0.753-0.767), with lower discrimination in the moderate or severe obesity group (C statistic, 0.742; 95\% CI, 0.721-0.763) compared with the normal-range BMI group (C statistic, 0.785; 95\% CI, 0.772-0.798). Waist circumference (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95\% CI, 1.03-1.11) and hsCRP (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95\% CI, 1.05-1.09), but not BMI, were associated with increased ASCVD risk when added to the PCE. However, these factors did not improve model performance (C statistic, 0.760; 95\% CI, 0.753-0.767) with or without added metrics.

Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the PCE had acceptable model discrimination and were well calibrated at clinical decision thresholds but overestimated risk of ASCVD for individuals in overweight and obese categories, particularly individuals with high estimated risk. Incorporation of the usual clinical measures of obesity did not improve risk estimation of the PCE. Future research is needed to determine whether incorporation of alternative high-risk obesity markers (eg, weight trajectory or measures of visceral or ectopic fat) into the PCE may improve risk prediction.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Body Mass Index, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Correlation of Data, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors}, issn = {2574-3805}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.23242}, author = {Khera, Rohan and Pandey, Ambarish and Ayers, Colby R and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Greenland, Philip and Ndumele, Chiadi E and Nambi, Vijay and Seliger, Stephen L and Chaves, Paulo H M and Safford, Monika M and Cushman, Mary and Xanthakis, Vanessa and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Mentz, Robert J and Correa, Adolfo and Lloyd-Jones, Donald M and Berry, Jarett D and de Lemos, James A and Neeland, Ian J} }