@article {648, title = {M-mode echocardiographic predictors of six- to seven-year incidence of coronary heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure, and mortality in an elderly cohort (the Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Am J Cardiol}, volume = {87}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 May 01}, pages = {1051-7}, abstract = {

Previous studies have identified a number of echocardiographic variables that predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality, but have not focused on a large elderly cohort. The purpose of this study was to determine whether M-mode echocardiographic variables predicted all-cause mortality, incident coronary heart disease (CHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), and stroke in a large prospective, multicenter, population-based study. In the Cardiovascular Health Study, a biracial cohort of 5,888 men and women (mean age 73 years) underwent 2-dimensional M-mode echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular (LV) internal dimensions, wall thickness, mass and geometry, as well as measurement of left atrial dimension and assessment for mitral annular calcium. Participants were followed for 6 to 7 years for incident events; analyses excluded subjects with prevalent disease. One or more echocardiographic measurements were independent predictors of all-cause mortality and incident CHD, CHF, and stroke. After adjustment for anthropometric and traditional CVD risk factors, LV mass was significantly related to incident CHD, CHF, and stroke. The highest quartile of LV mass conferred a hazards ratio of 3.36, compared with the lowest quartile, for incident CHF. Furthermore, incident CHF-free survival was significantly lower for participants with LV mass in the highest versus the 2 lowest quartiles (86\% vs 97\%, respectively, at 2,500 days). Eccentric and concentric LV hypertrophy, respectively, conferred adjusted hazards ratios, compared with normal LV geometry, of 2.05 and 1.61 for incident CHD, and 2.95 and 3.32 for incident CHF. Thus, in an elderly biracial population, selected 2-dimensional M-mode echocardiographic measurements were important markers of subclinical disease and conferred independent prognostic information for incident CVD events, especially CHF and CHD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Analysis of Variance, Coronary Disease, Echocardiography, Doppler, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke}, issn = {0002-9149}, doi = {10.1016/s0002-9149(01)01460-6}, author = {Gardin, J M and McClelland, R and Kitzman, D and Lima, J A and Bommer, W and Klopfenstein, H S and Wong, N D and Smith, V E and Gottdiener, J} } @article {642, title = {Predictive value of systolic and diastolic function for incident congestive heart failure in the elderly: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {37}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 Mar 15}, pages = {1042-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the ability of echocardiographic indices of systolic and diastolic function to predict incident congestive heart failure (CHF).

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive indices of subclinical systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction that can be used to identify patients in a transition phase between normal cardiac function and clinical CHF would be valuable. Though midwall shortening and Doppler mitral inflow patterns are seemingly well suited to predict subsequent CHF, the predictive value of these indices has not been investigated.

METHODS: We studied 2,671 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study who were free of coronary heart disease, CHF or atrial fibrillation. Clinical and quantitative echocardiographic data were obtained in all participants.

RESULTS: At a mean follow-up of 5.2 years (range 0 to 6 years), 170 participants (6.4\% of the cohort) developed CHF. Although 96\% of these participants had normal or borderline ejection fraction (EF) at baseline, only 57\% had normal or borderline EF at the time of hospitalization. In multivariate modeling, fractional shortening at the endocardium (relative risk [RR] 1.85 per 10-unit decrease, confidence interval [CI] 1.27 to 2.39), fractional shortening at the midwall (RR 1.29 per five-unit decrease, 95\% CI 1.11-1.51) and peak Doppler peak E (RR 1.15 for each 0.1 M/s increment; CI 1.02 to 1.21) independently predicted incident CHF. Both high and low Doppler E/A ratios were predictive of incident CHF.

CONCLUSIONS: Roughly half the occurrences of CHF in this population are associated with normal or borderline EF. Echocardiographic findings suggestive of subclinical contractile dysfunction and diastolic filling abnormalities are both predictive of subsequent CHF. The standard (FSendo) and refined (FSmw) parameters of systolic function performed similarly in this regard, though subjects with left ventricular hypertrophy and depressed FSmw are at particularly high risk for subsequent CHF.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Diastole, Echocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Myocardial Contraction, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Systole}, issn = {0735-1097}, doi = {10.1016/s0735-1097(01)01110-x}, author = {Aurigemma, G P and Gottdiener, J S and Shemanski, L and Gardin, J and Kitzman, D} }