@article {791, title = {The association of fasting glucose levels with congestive heart failure in diabetic adults > or =65 years: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {43}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Jun 16}, pages = {2236-41}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine if fasting glucose levels are an independent risk factor for congestive heart failure (CHF) in elderly individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) with or without coronary heart disease (CHD).

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus and CHF frequently coexist in the elderly. It is not clear whether fasting glucose levels in the setting of DM are a risk factor for incident CHF in the elderly.

METHODS: A cohort of 829 diabetic participants, age > or =65 years, without prevalent CHF, was followed for five to eight years. The Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to determine the risk of CHF by fasting glucose levels. The cohort was categorized by the presence or absence of prevalent CHD.

RESULTS: For a 1 standard deviation (60.6 mg/dl) increase in fasting glucose, the adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHF among participants without CHD at baseline, with or without an incident myocardial infarction (MI) or CHD event on follow-up, was 1.41 (95\% confidence interval 1.24 to 1.61; p < 0.0001). Among those with prevalent CHD at baseline, with or without another incident MI or CHD event on follow-up, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratio was 1.27 (95\% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.58; p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults with DM, elevated fasting glucose levels are a risk factor for incident CHF. The relationship of fasting glucose to CHF differs somewhat by the presence or absence of prevalent CHD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Blood Glucose, Blood Pressure, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Diabetic Angiopathies, Fasting, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Statistics as Topic, Stroke Volume, Ventricular Function, Left}, issn = {0735-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2003.10.074}, author = {Barzilay, Joshua I and Kronmal, Richard A and Gottdiener, John S and Smith, Nicholas L and Burke, Gregory L and Tracy, Russell and Savage, Peter J and Carlson, Michelle} } @article {843, title = {Fish intake and risk of incident heart failure.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {45}, year = {2005}, month = {2005 Jun 21}, pages = {2015-21}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to investigate the relation between fish consumption and incidence of congestive heart failure (CHF).

BACKGROUND: The incidence and health burden of CHF are rising, particularly in older persons. Although n-3 fatty acids have effects that could favorably influence risk of CHF, the relation between fish intake and CHF incidence is unknown.

METHODS: Among 4,738 adults age > or =65 years and free of CHF at baseline in 1989-90, usual dietary intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. In a participant subsample, consumption of tuna or other broiled or baked fish, but not fried fish, correlated with plasma phospholipid n-3 fatty acids. Incidence of CHF was prospectively adjudicated.

RESULTS: During 12 years{\textquoteright} follow-up, 955 participants developed CHF. In multivariate-adjusted analyses, tuna/other fish consumption was inversely associated with incident CHF, with 20\% lower risk with intake 1 to 2 times/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80, 95\% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.99), 31\% lower risk with intake 3 to 4 times/week (HR = 0.69, 95\% CI = 0.52 to 0.91), and 32\% lower risk with intake > or =5 times/week (HR = 0.68, 95\% CI = 0.45 to 1.03), compared with intake <1 time/month (p trend = 0.009). In similar analyses, fried fish consumption was positively associated with incident CHF (p trend = 0.01). Dietary long-chain n-3 fatty acid intake was also inversely associated with CHF (p trend = 0.009), with 37\% lower risk in the highest quintile of intake (HR = 0.73, 95\% CI = 0.57 to 0.94) compared with the lowest.

CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, consumption of tuna or other broiled or baked fish, but not fried fish, is associated with lower incidence of CHF. Confirmation in additional studies and evaluation of potential mechanisms is warranted.

}, keywords = {Aged, Animals, Cohort Studies, Cooking, Diet, Diet Surveys, Disease-Free Survival, Female, Fishes, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0735-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2005.03.038}, author = {Mozaffarian, Dariush and Bryson, Chris L and Lemaitre, Rozenn N and Burke, Gregory L and Siscovick, David S} } @article {1247, title = {Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {170}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Nov 22}, pages = {1909-17}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.

METHODS: We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2\%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.

RESULTS: We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95\% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95\% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0\% (AGES) and 63.6\% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64\% of risk.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Algorithms, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Pressure, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Electrocardiography, Europe, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Systole, United States}, issn = {1538-3679}, doi = {10.1001/archinternmed.2010.434}, author = {Schnabel, Renate B and Aspelund, Thor and Li, Guo and Sullivan, Lisa M and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Harris, Tamara B and Pencina, Michael J and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Levy, Daniel and Kannel, William B and Wang, Thomas J and Kronmal, Richard A and Wolf, Philip A and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Psaty, Bruce M and Benjamin, Emelia J and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R} } @article {5878, title = {Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {2}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Mar 18}, pages = {e000102}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19\% African Americans, 81\% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95\% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95\% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95\% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95\% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95\% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.

CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Iceland, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Netherlands, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Smoking, United States}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.112.000102}, author = {Alonso, Alvaro and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Stepas, Katherine A and Pencina, Michael J and Moser, Carlee B and Sinner, Moritz F and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Ellinor, Patrick T and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Benjamin, Emelia J} } @article {6768, title = {Burden of Comorbidities and Functional and Cognitive Impairments in Elderly Patients at the Initial Diagnosis of Heart Failure and Their Impact on Total Mortality: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {JACC Heart Fail}, volume = {3}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jul}, pages = {542-50}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of clinically relevant comorbidities and measures of physical and cognitive impairment in elderly persons with incident heart failure (HF).

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities and functional and cognitive impairments are common in the elderly and often associated with greater mortality risk.

METHODS: We examined the prevalence of 9 comorbidities and 4 measures of functional and cognitive impairments in 558 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study who developed incident HF between 1990 and 2002. Participants were followed prospectively until mid-2008 to determine their mortality risk.

RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 79.2 {\textpm} 6.3 years with 52\% being men. Sixty percent of participants had >=3 comorbidities, and only 2.5\% had none. Twenty-two percent and 44\% of participants had >=1 activity of daily living (ADL) and >=1 instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) impaired respectively. Seventeen percent of participants had cognitive impairment (modified mini-mental state exam score <80, scores range between 0 and 100). During follow up, 504 participants died, with 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality rates of 19\%, 56\%, and 83\%, respectively. In a multivariable-adjusted model, the following were significantly associated with greater total mortality risk: diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.64; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 2.03), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.32; 95\% CI: 1.07 to 1.62 for moderate disease; HR: 3.00; 95\% CI: 1.82 to 4.95 for severe), cerebrovascular disease (HR: 1.53; 95\% CI: 1.22 to 1.92), depression (HR: 1.44; 95\% CI: 1.09 to 1.90), functional impairment (HR: 1.30; 95\% CI: 1.04 to 1.63 for 1 IADL impaired; HR: 1.49; 95\% CI: 1.07 to 2.04 for >=2 IADL impaired), and cognitive impairment (HR: 1.33; 95\% CI: 1.02 to 1.73). Other comorbidities (hypertension, coronary heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation, and obstructive airway disease) and measures of functional impairments (ADLs and 15-ft walk time) were not associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Elderly patients with incident HF have a high burden of comorbidities and functional and cognitive impairments. Some of these conditions are associated with greater mortality risk.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cognition Disorders, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Coronary Disease, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Peripheral Arterial Disease, Physical Fitness, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive}, issn = {2213-1787}, doi = {10.1016/j.jchf.2015.03.004}, author = {Murad, Khalil and Goff, David C and Morgan, Timothy M and Burke, Gregory L and Bartz, Traci M and Kizer, Jorge R and Chaudhry, Sarwat I and Gottdiener, John S and Kitzman, Dalane W} }