@article {676, title = {A stroke prediction score in the elderly: validation and Web-based application.}, journal = {J Clin Epidemiol}, volume = {55}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Feb}, pages = {129-36}, abstract = {

The objective of this study was to construct a prediction model for predicting stroke in an elderly U.S. population, and to assess the accuracy in this population of other previously published prediction models. The subjects were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study: 2,495 men and 3,393 women age 65 years and older at baseline, and followed for 6.3 years. Among 5,711 participants free of baseline stroke, 399 strokes occurred. Sex-specific prediction equations were constructed using study variables that were most importantly related to incident stroke: age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, ECG diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or left ventricular hypertrophy, confirmed history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, time to walk 15 ft, and serum creatinine. The prediction rule was implemented as a risk score and in a Web-based interactive Java applet. Overall, the model predicted 5-year stroke risks ranging from less than 1 to 59\%. The 20\% of subjects in the highest predicted risk group had a 5-year actual stroke incidence rate of 15\%, while the 20\% lowest risk group had a 1\% incidence. Risk scores from two other studies performed well in these study participants. Effective discrimination between low and high stroke risk in the elderly was possible in this cohort with data that are easy to obtain. Evaluation of the generalizability and clinical usefulness of this prediction model requires further research.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Models, Cardiovascular, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, ROC Curve, Stroke, United States}, issn = {0895-4356}, doi = {10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00434-6}, author = {Lumley, Thomas and Kronmal, Richard A and Cushman, Mary and Manolio, Teri A and Goldstein, Steven} } @article {734, title = {The prevalence and risk factors of retinal microvascular abnormalities in older persons: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Ophthalmology}, volume = {110}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Apr}, pages = {658-66}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of retinal microvascular characteristics and their associations with atherosclerosis in elderly, nondiabetic persons.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based, cross-sectional study comprising 2050 men and women aged 69 to 97 years without diabetes, living in four communities.

METHODS: Participants underwent retinal photography and standardized grading of retinal microvascular characteristics, including retinopathy (e.g., microaneurysms, retinal hemorrhages), focal arteriolar narrowing, and arteriovenous nicking. In addition, calibers of retinal arterioles and venules were measured on digitized photographs to obtain an estimate of generalized arteriolar narrowing. Atherosclerosis and its risk factors were obtained from clinical examination and laboratory investigations.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of retinal microvascular abnormalities and their associations with measures of atherosclerosis.

RESULTS: The prevalence of retinal microvascular abnormalities was 8.3\% for retinopathy, 9.6\% for focal arteriolar narrowing, and 7.7\% for arteriovenous nicking. All retinal lesions were associated with hypertension (odds ratios [OR] were 1.8 for retinopathy, 2.1 for focal arteriolar narrowing, 1.5 for arteriovenous nicking, and 1.7 for generalized arteriolar narrowing). After controlling for age, gender, race, mean arterial blood pressure, and antihypertensive medication use, retinopathy was associated with prevalent coronary heart disease (OR, 1.7), prevalent myocardial infarction (OR, 1.7), prevalent stroke (OR, 2.0), presence of carotid artery plaque (OR, 1.9), and increased intima-media thickness of the common carotid (OR, 2.3; fourth vs. first quartile) and internal carotid (OR, 1.8; fourth vs. first quartile) arteries. In contrast, focal arteriolar narrowing, arteriovenous nicking, and generalized arteriolar narrowing were not associated with any measures of atherosclerosis.

CONCLUSIONS: Retinal microvascular abnormalities are common in older persons without diabetes and are related to hypertension. Retinopathy is associated with prevalent coronary heart disease, stroke, and carotid artery thickening, but focal and generalized arteriolar narrowing and arteriovenous nicking are not related to most measures of atherosclerosis. These data suggest that retinal microvascular abnormalities reflect processes associated with hypertension but distinct from atherosclerosis.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Coronary Artery Disease, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Prevalence, Retinal Diseases, Retinal Vessels, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0161-6420}, doi = {10.1016/S0161-6420(02)01931-0}, author = {Wong, Tien Yin and Klein, Ronald and Sharrett, A Richey and Manolio, Teri A and Hubbard, Larry D and Marino, Emily K and Kuller, Lewis and Burke, Gregory and Tracy, Russell P and Polak, Joseph F and Gottdiener, John S and Siscovick, David S} } @article {804, title = {Risk of congestive heart failure in an elderly population treated with peripheral alpha-1 antagonists.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {52}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Oct}, pages = {1648-54}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of congestive heart failure (CHF) in elderly individuals treated with any peripheral alpha-1 antagonist for hypertension with any thiazide, test whether the risk persists in subjects without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, and examine CHF risk in normotensive men with prostatism treated with alpha antagonists.

DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.

SETTING: Four U.S. sites: Washington County, Maryland; Allegheny County, Pennsylvania; Sacramento County, California; and Forsyth County, North Carolina.

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5,888 community-dwelling subjects aged 65 and older.

MEASUREMENTS: Adjudicated incident CHF.

RESULTS: The 3,105 participants with treated hypertension were at risk for CHF; 22\% of men and 8\% of women took alpha antagonists during follow-up. The age-adjusted risk of CHF in those receiving monotherapy treated with alpha antagonists was 1.90 (95\% confidence interval=1.03-3.50) compared with thiazides. In subjects without CVD at baseline receiving monotherapy, women taking an alpha antagonist had a 3.6 times greater age-adjusted risk of CHF, whereas men had no difference in risk. Adjustment for systolic blood pressure attenuated statistical differences in risk. There were 930 men without hypertension at risk for CHF; 5\% used alpha antagonists during follow-up, with no observed increase in CHF risk.

CONCLUSION: Subjects receiving alpha antagonist monotherapy for hypertension had a two to three times greater risk of incident CHF, also seen in lower-risk subjects, but differences in blood pressure control partly explained this.

}, keywords = {Adrenergic alpha-Antagonists, Aged, Antihypertensive Agents, Benzothiadiazines, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Diuretics, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Risk Factors, Sodium Chloride Symporter Inhibitors, United States}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52456.x}, author = {Bryson, Chris L and Smith, Nicholas L and Kuller, Lewis H and Chaves, Paulo H M and Manolio, Teri A and Lewis, William and Boyko, Edward J and Furberg, Curt D and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {917, title = {Blood pressure level and outcomes in adults aged 65 and older with prior ischemic stroke.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {54}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Sep}, pages = {1309-16}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between blood pressure (BP) levels and long-term stroke outcomes in elderly stroke survivors.

DESIGN: Observational study.

SETTING: The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) of 5,888 community-dwelling adults.

PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred fifty-four adults aged 65 and older (mean age 78.6) who sustained a nonfatal first ischemic stroke.

MEASUREMENTS: BP levels assessed at prestroke and poststroke CHS visits were examined as predictors of stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease (CHD), combined vascular events (CVEs), and mortality.

RESULTS: Higher poststroke BP level, assessed 261.6 days (mean) after stroke, was associated with higher risk of stroke recurrence over 5.4 years (mean) of follow-up. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio for stroke recurrence was 1.42 (95\% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03-1.99) per standard deviation (SD) of systolic BP (P = .04) and 1.39 (95\% CI = 1.01-1.91) per SD of diastolic BP (P = .04). Mortality was significantly greater in patients with low or high poststroke BP than in those with intermediate BP. Poststroke BP was not associated with risk of CHD or CVE, although further analyses suggested that high systolic BP predicted CHD and CVE in younger but not older subjects. Prestroke BP did not predict poststroke outcomes.

CONCLUSION: In this observational study of adults aged 65 and older assessed approximately 8 months after stroke, low BP was associated with favorable risk of recurrent stroke, although high and low poststroke BP levels were associated with greater mortality. Long-term antihypertensive trials in older stroke survivors would increase knowledge about the benefits of lowering BP in this population.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Brain Ischemia, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Outcome Assessment, Health Care, Prospective Studies, Recurrence, Stroke, Survival Rate}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2006.00838.x}, author = {Kaplan, Robert C and Tirschwell, David L and Longstreth, W T and Manolio, Teri A and Heckbert, Susan R and LeValley, Aaron J and Lefkowitz, David and El-Saed, Aiman and Psaty, Bruce M} }