@article {676, title = {A stroke prediction score in the elderly: validation and Web-based application.}, journal = {J Clin Epidemiol}, volume = {55}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Feb}, pages = {129-36}, abstract = {

The objective of this study was to construct a prediction model for predicting stroke in an elderly U.S. population, and to assess the accuracy in this population of other previously published prediction models. The subjects were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study: 2,495 men and 3,393 women age 65 years and older at baseline, and followed for 6.3 years. Among 5,711 participants free of baseline stroke, 399 strokes occurred. Sex-specific prediction equations were constructed using study variables that were most importantly related to incident stroke: age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, ECG diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or left ventricular hypertrophy, confirmed history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, time to walk 15 ft, and serum creatinine. The prediction rule was implemented as a risk score and in a Web-based interactive Java applet. Overall, the model predicted 5-year stroke risks ranging from less than 1 to 59\%. The 20\% of subjects in the highest predicted risk group had a 5-year actual stroke incidence rate of 15\%, while the 20\% lowest risk group had a 1\% incidence. Risk scores from two other studies performed well in these study participants. Effective discrimination between low and high stroke risk in the elderly was possible in this cohort with data that are easy to obtain. Evaluation of the generalizability and clinical usefulness of this prediction model requires further research.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Models, Cardiovascular, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, ROC Curve, Stroke, United States}, issn = {0895-4356}, doi = {10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00434-6}, author = {Lumley, Thomas and Kronmal, Richard A and Cushman, Mary and Manolio, Teri A and Goldstein, Steven} } @article {766, title = {Cognitive impairment and decline are associated with carotid artery disease in patients without clinically evident cerebrovascular disease.}, journal = {Ann Intern Med}, volume = {140}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Feb 17}, pages = {237-47}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Whether carotid artery disease is a cause of cognitive impairment in persons who have not had stroke is unknown. If this is the case, diminished performance on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination should be more common in persons with left carotid artery disease than in those with right carotid artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether left carotid artery disease is associated with cognitive impairment.

DESIGN: Cross-sectional and cohort study.

SETTING: Four U.S. communities participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

PATIENTS: 4006 right-handed men and women 65 years of age or older without history of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or carotid endarterectomy.

MEASUREMENTS: Internal carotid artery stenosis and intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery were assessed by using duplex ultrasonography. Cognitive impairment was defined as a score less than 80 on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, and cognitive decline was defined as an average decrease of more than 1 point annually in Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score during up to 5 years of follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk for cognitive impairment and decline associated with left internal carotid artery stenosis and intima-media thickness, after adjustment for measures of right-sided disease and risk factors for vascular disease.

RESULTS: After adjustment for right-sided stenosis, high-grade (> or =75\% narrowing of diameter) stenosis of the left internal carotid artery (32 patients) was associated with cognitive impairment (odds ratio, 6.7 [95\% CI, 2.4 to 18.1] compared with no stenosis) and cognitive decline (odds ratio, 2.6 [CI, 1.1 to 6.3]). Intima-media thickness of the left common carotid artery was associated with cognitive impairment and decline in univariate analysis, but this effect did not persist after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive impairment and decline are associated with asymptomatic high-grade stenosis of the left internal carotid artery. The persistence of the association after adjustment for right-sided stenosis indicates that the association is not due to underlying vascular risk factors or atherosclerosis in general.

}, keywords = {Aged, Carotid Stenosis, Cognition Disorders, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Neuropsychological Tests, Odds Ratio, Risk Factors, Tunica Intima}, issn = {1539-3704}, doi = {10.7326/0003-4819-140-4-200402170-00005}, author = {Johnston, S Claiborne and O{\textquoteright}Meara, Ellen S and Manolio, Teri A and Lefkowitz, David and O{\textquoteright}Leary, Daniel H and Goldstein, Steven and Carlson, Michelle C and Fried, Linda P and Longstreth, W T} }