@article {738, title = {The association between time since last meal and blood pressure in older adults: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {51}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Jun}, pages = {824-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate a postprandial hypotensive (PPH) phenomenon in older adults.

DESIGN: Observational, prospective cohort study composed of baseline and nine follow-up visits.

SETTING: Cardiovascular Health Study, an epidemiological study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in older adults.

PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred eighty-eight community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older.

MEASUREMENTS: Blood pressure and time since last meal were recorded synchronously at baseline and at follow-up clinic visits. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations between time since last meal and blood pressure and to adjust variance estimates to account for repeated blood pressure measures within subjects across fasting times.

RESULTS: Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were lower in the first hour after the last meal and were progressively higher through the fourth hour after the last meal than blood pressures measured immediately after the last meal (0 hour: 133.7/68.8 mmHg; 1st hour: 130.1/66.6 mmHg; 4th hour: 136.5/71.1 mmHg). Changes were significant for systolic and diastolic measures (P <.001 for both). Exploratory analyses suggested that the systolic PPH association was more pronounced in women. Little evidence was found that the degree of systolic or diastolic PPH varied by age, race, prevalent cardiovascular disease, heart rate, ejection fraction, treated hypertension or diabetes mellitus, or body mass index.

CONCLUSION: These data support previous observations that there is a significant drop in blood pressure within 1 hour after a meal in older adults. Time since last meal may be an important factor to consider when measuring blood pressure in older adults, and perhaps national standards need to be set.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Eating, Female, Humans, Hypotension, Male, Postprandial Period, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2389.2003.51264.x}, author = {Smith, Nicholas L and Psaty, Bruce M and Rutan, Gale H and Lumley, Thomas and Yanez, David and Chaves, Paulo H M and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {741, title = {C-reactive protein, carotid intima-media thickness, and incidence of ischemic stroke in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {108}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Jul 15}, pages = {166-70}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Increased carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) are both associated with the occurrence of stroke. We investigated whether elevated CRP is a risk factor for ischemic stroke independent of carotid IMT and studied the interaction between CRP and IMT.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 5417 participants aged 65 years or older without preexisting stroke or chronic atrial fibrillation who were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The hazard ratio of incident ischemic stroke was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression. During 10.2 years of follow-up, 469 incident ischemic strokes occurred. The adjusted hazard ratios for ischemic stroke in the 2nd to 4th quartiles of baseline CRP, relative to the 1st quartile, were 1.19 (95\% CI 0.92 to 1.53), 1.05 (95\% CI 0.81 to 1.37), and 1.60 (95\% CI 1.23 to 2.08), respectively. With additional adjustment for carotid IMT, there was little confounding. The association of CRP with stroke was significantly different depending on IMT (P<0.02), with no association of CRP with stroke among those in the lowest IMT tertile and a significant association among those with higher levels of IMT.

CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that elevated CRP is a risk factor for ischemic stroke, independent of atherosclerosis severity as measured by carotid IMT. The association of CRP with stroke is more apparent in the presence of a higher carotid IMT. CRP and carotid IMT may each be independent integrals in determining the risk of ischemic stroke.

}, keywords = {Aged, Brain Ischemia, C-Reactive Protein, California, Carotid Arteries, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Maryland, North Carolina, Odds Ratio, Pennsylvania, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media, Ultrasonography}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/01.CIR.0000079160.07364.6A}, author = {Cao, Jie J and Thach, Chau and Manolio, Teri A and Psaty, Bruce M and Kuller, Lewis H and Chaves, Paulo H M and Polak, Joseph F and Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim and Herrington, David M and Price, Thomas R and Cushman, Mary} } @article {740, title = {Hormone replacement therapy and the risk of incident congestive heart failure: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Womens Health (Larchmt)}, volume = {12}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 May}, pages = {341-50}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The development of congestive heart failure (CHF) in older persons is related to a variety of mechanisms. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) affects several of the pathways that may be important in the development of CHF. We hypothesized that HRT would be associated with a decreased risk of incident CHF.

METHODS: Using Cox proportional-hazards regression, we assessed the risk of incident CHF (n = 304) associated with time-dependent past and current use of HRT compared to never use. The Cardiovascular Health Study is a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older. This analysis included female participants without a history of CHF at baseline (n = 3223).

RESULTS: At baseline, 62\% were never users, 26\% were past users, and 12\% were current users of HRT. Compared with never users, the multivariable relative risk (RR) of CHF was 1.01 (95\% confidence interval [95\% CI] 0.76,1.34) for past users and 1.34 (0.93,1.94) for current users. Results were similar among most treatment and clinical subgroups, except that the association of current HRT with CHF appeared to depend on body mass index (BMI) or osteoporosis status. The RR was 0.82 (0.43,1.60) for normal weight women, 1.65 (0.95,2.88) for overweight women, and 2.22 (1.06,4.67) for obese women (p = 0.01 for interaction). Similarly, the RR was 0.15 (0.04,0.65) for women with osteoporosis and 1.82 (1.25,2.65) for women without osteoporosis (p = 0.001 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, HRT was not associated with the risk of incident CHF, although BMI and osteoporosis appeared to modify the association of HRT with CHF. The risk of CHF was lower in patients with lower BMI or osteoporosis.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Estrogen Replacement Therapy, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Life Style, Middle Aged, Multivariate Analysis, Obesity, Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk, Risk Factors, United States, Women{\textquoteright}s Health}, issn = {1540-9996}, doi = {10.1089/154099903765448853}, author = {Rea, Thomas D and Psaty, Bruce M and Heckbert, Susan R and Cushman, Mary and Meilahn, Elaine and Olson, Jean L and Lemaitre, Rozenn N and Smith, Nicholas L and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Chaves, Paulo H M} } @article {804, title = {Risk of congestive heart failure in an elderly population treated with peripheral alpha-1 antagonists.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {52}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Oct}, pages = {1648-54}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of congestive heart failure (CHF) in elderly individuals treated with any peripheral alpha-1 antagonist for hypertension with any thiazide, test whether the risk persists in subjects without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, and examine CHF risk in normotensive men with prostatism treated with alpha antagonists.

DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.

SETTING: Four U.S. sites: Washington County, Maryland; Allegheny County, Pennsylvania; Sacramento County, California; and Forsyth County, North Carolina.

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5,888 community-dwelling subjects aged 65 and older.

MEASUREMENTS: Adjudicated incident CHF.

RESULTS: The 3,105 participants with treated hypertension were at risk for CHF; 22\% of men and 8\% of women took alpha antagonists during follow-up. The age-adjusted risk of CHF in those receiving monotherapy treated with alpha antagonists was 1.90 (95\% confidence interval=1.03-3.50) compared with thiazides. In subjects without CVD at baseline receiving monotherapy, women taking an alpha antagonist had a 3.6 times greater age-adjusted risk of CHF, whereas men had no difference in risk. Adjustment for systolic blood pressure attenuated statistical differences in risk. There were 930 men without hypertension at risk for CHF; 5\% used alpha antagonists during follow-up, with no observed increase in CHF risk.

CONCLUSION: Subjects receiving alpha antagonist monotherapy for hypertension had a two to three times greater risk of incident CHF, also seen in lower-risk subjects, but differences in blood pressure control partly explained this.

}, keywords = {Adrenergic alpha-Antagonists, Aged, Antihypertensive Agents, Benzothiadiazines, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Diuretics, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Risk Factors, Sodium Chloride Symporter Inhibitors, United States}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52456.x}, author = {Bryson, Chris L and Smith, Nicholas L and Kuller, Lewis H and Chaves, Paulo H M and Manolio, Teri A and Lewis, William and Boyko, Edward J and Furberg, Curt D and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {865, title = {Kidney function as a predictor of noncardiovascular mortality.}, journal = {J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {16}, year = {2005}, month = {2005 Dec}, pages = {3728-35}, abstract = {

Chronic kidney disease is associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular mortality, as well as all-cause mortality. Whether chronic kidney disease is a predictor of noncardiovascular mortality is less clear. To further explore the latter, the association of kidney function with total noncardiovascular mortality and cause-specific mortality was assessed in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a community-based cohort of older individuals. Kidney disease was assessed using cystatin C and estimated GFR in 4637 participants in 1992 to 1993. Participants were followed until June 30, 2001. Deaths were adjudicated as cardiovascular or noncardiovascular disease by committee, and an underlying cause of death was assigned. The associations of kidney function with total noncardiovascular mortality and cause-specific mortality were analyzed by proportional hazards regression. Noncardiovascular mortality rates increased with higher cystatin C quartiles (16.8, 17.1, 21.6, and 50.0 per 1000 person-years). The association of cystatin C with noncardiovascular mortality persisted after adjustment for demographic factors; the presence of diabetes, C-reactive protein, hemoglobin, and prevalent cardiovascular disease; and measures of atherosclerosis (hazard ratio 1.69; 95\% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.15, for the fourth quartile versus the first quartile). Results for estimated GFR were similar. The risk for noncardiac deaths attributed to pulmonary disease, infection, cancer, and other causes was similarly associated with cystatin C levels. Kidney function predicts noncardiovascular mortality from multiple causes in the elderly. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms and evaluate interventions to reduce the high mortality rate in chronic kidney disease.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Creatinine, Cystatin C, Cystatins, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Kidney Function Tests, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Probability, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Severity of Illness Index, Survival Analysis, United States}, issn = {1046-6673}, doi = {10.1681/ASN.2005040384}, author = {Fried, Linda F and Katz, Ronit and Sarnak, Mark J and Shlipak, Michael G and Chaves, Paulo H M and Jenny, Nancy Swords and Stehman-Breen, Catherine and Gillen, Dan and Bleyer, Anthony J and Hirsch, Calvin and Siscovick, David and Newman, Anne B} } @article {1075, title = {Long-term function in an older cohort--the cardiovascular health study all stars study.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {57}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Mar}, pages = {432-40}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate shared and unique risk factors for maintaining physical and cognitive function into the ninth decade and beyond.

DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING: Four U.S. communities.

PARTICIPANTS: One thousand six hundred seventy-seven participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study All Stars Study, assessed in 2005/06. Median age was 85 (range 77-102), 66.5\% were women, and 16.6\% were black.

MEASUREMENTS: Intact function was defined as no difficulty with any activities of daily living and a score of 80 or higher on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination. Baseline characteristics assessed in 1992/93 included demographics, behavioral health factors, chronic disease history, subclinical disease markers, cardiovascular risk factors, and inflammatory markers. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare risk for physical disability, cognitive impairment,and combined impairments with no functional impairment.

RESULTS: Of the 1,677 participants evaluated in both domains, 891 (53\%) were functionally intact. Continuous measures of function, including the Digit Symbol Substitution Test and gait speed, showed that all groups, including the most functional, had declined over time. The functional group had less decline but also tended to have higher starting values. Functional individuals had a higher baseline health profile than those with either or cognitive impairment or both impairments combined. Women and individuals with greater weight had higher rates of physical impairment but not cognitive impairment. Risk factors common to both types of impairment included cardiovascular disease and hypertension.

CONCLUSION: Intact function was found in only approximately half of these older adults in the ninth decade and beyond. High baseline function and low vascular disease risk characterized functional aging.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Attention, Cardiovascular Diseases, Chronic Disease, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Gait, Geriatric Assessment, Hand Strength, Health Surveys, Humans, Male, Memory, Short-Term, Mental Status Schedule, Proportional Hazards Models, Psychometrics, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1532-5415}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2008.02152.x}, author = {Newman, Anne B and Arnold, Alice M and Sachs, Michael C and Ives, Diane G and Cushman, Mary and Strotmeyer, Elsa S and Ding, Jingzhong and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Chaves, Paulo H M and Fried, Linda P and Robbins, John} } @article {1214, title = {Change in circulating adiponectin in advanced old age: determinants and impact on physical function and mortality. The Cardiovascular Health Study All Stars Study.}, journal = {J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci}, volume = {65}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Nov}, pages = {1208-14}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional studies show that adiponectin is higher in older than in younger adults but long-term change in adiponectin, its determinants, and its relationship to functional decline or survival in the elderly population have not been evaluated.

METHODS: We investigated predictors of longitudinal change in adiponectin, and the association of this adipokine or its antecedent change with physical deterioration and all-cause mortality in 988 participants in a population-based study who completed examinations in 1996-1997 and 2005-2006, had serial adiponectin measurements and underwent follow-up through June 2009.

RESULTS: Adiponectin level rose significantly during follow-up, but the increase was smaller in blacks, was associated with declining weight or fasting glucose and, in men, lower albumin, and was affected by medications. Adiponectin was independently associated with greater physical decline, but the relationship for adiponectin change was driven by concomitant weight decrease. Both adiponectin and its change independently predicted mortality, even after adjustment for weight change. The association for adiponectin and mortality was observed in whites but not in blacks and only for levels in the upper range (hazard ratio = 1.85, 95\% confidence interval = 1.36-2.52 per SD >= 20 mg/L), whereas that for adiponectin change was linear throughout in both racial groups (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95\% confidence interval = 1.10-1.52 per SD).

CONCLUSIONS: Adiponectin levels increase over time in long-lived adults and are associated with greater physical disability and mortality. Such increases may occur in response to age-related homeostatic dysregulation. Additional investigation is required to define the underlying mechanisms and whether this represents a marker or causal factor for mortality in this age group.

}, keywords = {Adiponectin, Age Factors, Aged, Aging, Analysis of Variance, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Chi-Square Distribution, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Health Status, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Physical Fitness, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Time Factors, United States}, issn = {1758-535X}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glq122}, author = {Kizer, Jorge R and Arnold, Alice M and Strotmeyer, Elsa S and Ives, Diane G and Cushman, Mary and Ding, Jingzhong and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Chaves, Paulo H M and Hirsch, Calvin H and Newman, Anne B} } @article {1338, title = {Surrogate screening models for the low physical activity criterion of frailty.}, journal = {Aging Clin Exp Res}, volume = {23}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Jun}, pages = {209-16}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Low physical activity, one of five criteria in a validated clinical phenotype of frailty, is assessed by a standardized, semiquantitative questionnaire on up to 20 leisure time activities. Because of the time demanded to collect the interview data, it has been challenging to translate to studies other than the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), for which it was developed. Considering subsets of activities, we identified and evaluated streamlined surrogate assessment methods and compared them to one implemented in the Women{\textquoteright}s Health and Aging Study (WHAS).

METHODS: Using data on men and women ages 65 and older from the CHS, we applied logistic regression models to rank activities by "relative influence" in predicting low physical activity.We considered subsets of the most influential activities as inputs to potential surrogate models (logistic regressions). We evaluated predictive accuracy and predictive validity using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves and assessed criterion validity using proportional hazards models relating frailty status (defined using the surrogate) to mortality.

RESULTS: Walking for exercise and moderately strenuous household chores were highly influential for both genders. Women required fewer activities than men for accurate classification. The WHAS model (8 CHS activities) was an effective surrogate, but a surrogate using 6 activities (walking, chores, gardening, general exercise, mowing and golfing) was also highly predictive.

CONCLUSIONS: We recommend a 6 activity questionnaire to assess physical activity for men and women. If efficiency is essential and the study involves only women, fewer activities can be included.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Cohort Studies, Exercise, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Frail Elderly, Geriatric Assessment, Humans, Leisure Activities, Logistic Models, Male, Motor Activity, Prospective Studies, Surveys and Questionnaires, Women{\textquoteright}s Health}, issn = {1594-0667}, author = {Eckel, Sandrah P and Bandeen-Roche, Karen and Chaves, Paulo H M and Fried, Linda P and Louis, Thomas A} } @article {1366, title = {Long-term assessment of inflammation and healthy aging in late life: the Cardiovascular Health Study All Stars.}, journal = {J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci}, volume = {67}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Sep}, pages = {970-6}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Associations of inflammation with age-related pathologies are documented; however, it is not understood how changes in inflammation over time impact healthy aging.

METHODS: We examined associations of long-term change in C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) with concurrent onset of physical and cognitive impairment, subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality in 1,051 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study All Stars Study. Biomarkers were measured in 1996-1997 and 2005-2006.

RESULTS: In 2005-2006, median age was 84.9 years, 63\% were women and 17\% non-white; 21\% had at least a doubling in CRP over time and 23\% had at least a doubling in IL-6. Adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, and 1996-1997 CRP level, each doubling in CRP change over 9 years was associated with higher risk of physical or cognitive impairment (odds ratio 1.29; 95\% confidence interval 1.15, 1.45). Results were similar for IL-6 (1.45; 1.20, 1.76). A doubling in IL-6 change over time, but not CRP, was associated with incident CVD events; hazard ratio (95\% confidence interval) 1.34 (1.03, 1.75). Doubling in change in each biomarker was individually associated with mortality (CRP: 1.12 [1.03, 1.22]; IL-6 1.39 [1.16, 1.65]). In models containing both change and 2005-2006 level, only level was associated with CVD events and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Although increases in inflammation markers over 9 years were associated with higher concurrent risk of functional impairment and subsequent CVD events and mortality, final levels of each biomarker appeared to be more important in determining risk of subsequent events than change over time.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, C-Reactive Protein, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cognition, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Inflammation, Inflammation Mediators, Interleukin-6, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Risk Factors, Vermont}, issn = {1758-535X}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glr261}, author = {Jenny, Nancy S and French, Benjamin and Arnold, Alice M and Strotmeyer, Elsa S and Cushman, Mary and Chaves, Paulo H M and Ding, Jingzhong and Fried, Linda P and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Rifkin, Dena E and Sarnak, Mark J and Newman, Anne B} } @article {8626, title = {Performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Estimate Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Body Mass Index.}, journal = {JAMA Netw Open}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 10 01}, pages = {e2023242}, abstract = {

Importance: Obesity is a global health challenge and a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASVCD). Performance of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) for ASCVD risk by body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is unknown.

Objective: To assess performance of the PCE across clinical BMI categories.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used pooled individual-level data from 8 community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort studies with 10-year ASCVD event follow-up from 1996 to 2016. We included all adults ages 40 to 79 years without baseline ASCVD or statin use, resulting in a sample size of 37 311 participants. Data were analyzed from August 2017 to July 2020.

Exposures: Participant BMI category: underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5 to <25), overweight (25 to <30), mild obesity (30 to <35), and moderate to severe obesity (>=35).

Main Outcomes and Measures: Discrimination (Harrell C statistic) and calibration (Nam-D{\textquoteright}Agostino χ2 goodness-of-fit test) of the PCE across BMI categories. Improvement in discrimination and net reclassification with addition of BMI, waist circumference, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) to the PCE.

Results: Among 37 311 participants (mean [SD] age, 58.6 [11.8] years; 21 897 [58.7\%] women), 380 604 person-years of follow-up were conducted. Mean (SD) baseline BMI was 29.0 (6.2), and 360 individuals (1.0\%) were in the underweight category, 9937 individuals (26.6\%) were in the normal weight category, 13 601 individuals (36.4\%) were in the overweight category, 7783 individuals (20.9\%) were in the mild obesity category, and 5630 individuals (15.1\%) were in the moderate to severe obesity category. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) 10-year estimated ASCVD risk was 7.1\% (2.5\%-15.4\%), and 3709 individuals (9.9\%) developed ASCVD over a median (IQR) 10.8 [8.5-12.6] years. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk in the overall cohort (estimated/observed [E/O] risk ratio, 1.22; 95\% CI, 1.18-1.26) and across all BMI categories except the underweight category. Calibration was better near the clinical decision threshold in all BMI groups but worse among individuals with moderate or severe obesity (E/O risk ratio, 1.36; 95\% CI, 1.25-1.47) and among those with the highest estimated ASCVD risk >=20\%. The PCE C statistic overall was 0.760 (95\% CI, 0.753-0.767), with lower discrimination in the moderate or severe obesity group (C statistic, 0.742; 95\% CI, 0.721-0.763) compared with the normal-range BMI group (C statistic, 0.785; 95\% CI, 0.772-0.798). Waist circumference (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95\% CI, 1.03-1.11) and hsCRP (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95\% CI, 1.05-1.09), but not BMI, were associated with increased ASCVD risk when added to the PCE. However, these factors did not improve model performance (C statistic, 0.760; 95\% CI, 0.753-0.767) with or without added metrics.

Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the PCE had acceptable model discrimination and were well calibrated at clinical decision thresholds but overestimated risk of ASCVD for individuals in overweight and obese categories, particularly individuals with high estimated risk. Incorporation of the usual clinical measures of obesity did not improve risk estimation of the PCE. Future research is needed to determine whether incorporation of alternative high-risk obesity markers (eg, weight trajectory or measures of visceral or ectopic fat) into the PCE may improve risk prediction.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Body Mass Index, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Correlation of Data, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors}, issn = {2574-3805}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.23242}, author = {Khera, Rohan and Pandey, Ambarish and Ayers, Colby R and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Greenland, Philip and Ndumele, Chiadi E and Nambi, Vijay and Seliger, Stephen L and Chaves, Paulo H M and Safford, Monika M and Cushman, Mary and Xanthakis, Vanessa and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Mentz, Robert J and Correa, Adolfo and Lloyd-Jones, Donald M and Berry, Jarett D and de Lemos, James A and Neeland, Ian J} }