@article {8526,
	title = {{Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies},
	journal = {Eur Heart J},
	volume = {40},
	year = {2019},
	month = {02},
	pages = {621{\textendash}631},
	abstract = {There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after {\textquoteright}recalibration{\textquoteright}, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.\ Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at {\textquoteright}high{\textquoteright} 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10\%, 52\%, and 41\%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10\%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39\% of individuals aged {\^a}{\textperthousand}{\textyen}40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24\% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.\ Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.},
	author = {Pennells, L. and Kaptoge, S. and Wood, A. and Sweeting, M. and Zhao, X. and White, I. and Burgess, S. and Willeit, P. and Bolton, T. and Moons, K. G. M. and van der Schouw, Y. T. and Selmer, R. and Khaw, K. T. and Gudnason, V. and Assmann, G. and Amouyel, P. and Salomaa, V. and Kivimaki, M. and Nordestgaard, B. G. and Blaha, M. J. and Kuller, L. H. and Brenner, H. and Gillum, R. F. and Meisinger, C. and Ford, I. and Knuiman, M. W. and Rosengren, A. and Lawlor, D. A. and V?lzke, H. and Cooper, C. and Mar?n Iba?ez, A. and Casiglia, E. and Kauhanen, J. and Cooper, J. A. and Rodriguez, B. and Sundstr?m, J. and Barrett-Connor, E. and Dankner, R. and Nietert, P. J. and Davidson, K. W. and Wallace, R. B. and Blazer, D. G. and Bj?rkelund, C. and Donfrancesco, C. and Krumholz, H. M. and Nissinen, A. and Davis, B. R. and Coady, S. and Whincup, P. H. and J?rgensen, T. and Ducimetiere, P. and Trevisan, M. and Engstr?m, G. and Crespo, C. J. and Meade, T. W. and Visser, M. and Kromhout, D. and Kiechl, S. and Daimon, M. and Price, J. F. and G?mez de la C?mara, A. and Wouter Jukema, J. and Lamarche, B. and Onat, A. and Simons, L. A. and Kavousi, M. and Ben-Shlomo, Y. and Gallacher, J. and Dekker, J. M. and Arima, H. and Shara, N. and Tipping, R. W. and Roussel, R. and Brunner, E. J. and Koenig, W. and Sakurai, M. and Pavlovic, J. and Gansevoort, R. T. and Nagel, D. and Goldbourt, U. and Barr, E. L. M. and Palmieri, L. and Nj?lstad, I. and Sato, S. and Monique Verschuren, W. M. and Varghese, C. V. and Graham, I. and Onuma, O. and Greenland, P. and Woodward, M. and Ezzati, M. and Psaty, B. M. and Sattar, N. and Jackson, R. and Ridker, P. M. and Cook, N. R. and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, R. B. and Thompson, S. G. and Danesh, J. and Di Angelantonio, E. and Tipping, R. W. and Simpson, L. M. and Pressel, S. L. and Couper, D. J. and Nambi, V. and Matsushita, K. and Folsom, A. R. and Shaw, J. E. and Magliano, D. J. and Zimmet, P. Z. and Knuiman, M. W. and Whincup, P. H. and Wannamethee, S. G. and Willeit, J. and Santer, P. and Egger, G. and Casas, J. P. and Amuzu, A. and Ben-Shlomo, Y. and Gallacher, J. and Tikhonoff, V. and Casiglia, E. and Sutherland, S. E. and Nietert, P. J. and Cushman, M. and Psaty, B. M. and S?gaard, A. J. and H?heim, L. L. and Ariansen, I. and Tybj?rg-Hansen, A. and Jensen, G. B. and Schnohr, P. and Giampaoli, S. and Vanuzzo, D. and Panico, S. and Palmieri, L. and Balkau, B. and Bonnet, F. and Marre, M. and de la C?mara, A. G. and Rubio Herrera, M. A. and Friedlander, Y. and McCallum, J. and McLachlan, S. and Guralnik, J. and Phillips, C. L. and Khaw, K. T. and Wareham, N. and Sch?ttker, B. and Saum, K. U. and Holleczek, B. and Nissinen, A. and Tolonen, H. and Giampaoli, S. and Donfrancesco, C. and Vartiainen, E. and Jousilahti, P. and Harald, K. and D?Agostino, R. B. and Massaro, J. M. and Pencina, M. and Vasan, R. and Kayama, T. and Kato, T. and Oizumi, T. and Jespersen, J. and M?ller, L. and Bladbjerg, E. M. and Chetrit, A. and Rosengren, A. and Wilhelmsen, L. and Bj?rkelund, C. and Lissner, L. and Nagel, D. and Dennison, E. and Kiyohara, Y. and Ninomiya, T. and Doi, Y. and Rodriguez, B. and Nijpels, G. and Stehouwer, C. D. A. and Sato, S. and Kazumasa, Y. and Iso, H. and Goldbourt, U. and Salomaa, V. and Vartiainen, E. and Kurl, S. and Tuomainen, T. P. and Salonen, J. T. and Visser, M. and Deeg, D. J. H. and Meade, T. W. and Nilsson, P. M. and Hedblad, B. and Melander, O. and De Boer, I. H. and DeFilippis, A. P. and Verschuren, W. M. M. and Sattar, N. and Watt, G. and Meisinger, C. and Koenig, W. and Rosengren, A. and Kuller, L. H. and Tverdal, A. and Gillum, R. F. and Cooper, J. A. and Kirkland, S. and Shimbo, D. and Shaffer, J. and Sato, S. and Kazumasa, Y. and Iso, H. and Ducimetiere, P. and Bakker, S. J. L. and van der Harst, P. and Hillege, H. L. and Crespo, C. J. and Amouyel, P. and Dallongeville, J. and Assmann, G. and Schulte, H. and Trompet, S. and Smit, R. A. J. and Stott, D. J. and van der Schouw, Y. T. and Despr?s, J. P. and Cantin, B. and Dagenais, G. R. and Laughlin, G. and Wingard, D. and Trevisan, M. and Aspelund, T. and Eiriksdottir, G. and Gudmundsson, E. F. and Ikram, A. and van Rooij, F. J. A. and Franco, O. H. and Rueda-Ochoa, O. L. and Muka, T. and Glisic, M. and Tunstall-Pedoe, H. and V?lzke, H. and Howard, B. V. and Zhang, Y. and Jolly, S. and Gallacher, J. and Davey-Smith, G. and Can, G. and Y?ksel, H. and Nakagawa, H. and Morikawa, Y. and Miura, K. and Nj?lstad, I. and Ingelsson, M. and Giedraitis, V. and Ridker, P. M. and Gaziano, J. M. and Kivimaki, M. and Shipley, M. and Brunner, E. J. and Arndt, V. and Brenner, H. and Cook, N. and Ridker, P. M. and Ford, I. and Sattar, N. and Iba?ez, A. M. and Geleijnse, J. M.}
}
@article {9460,
	title = {{Trans Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: Pooled Analysis of 12 Prospective Cohort Studies in the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE)},
	journal = {Diabetes Care},
	volume = {45},
	year = {2022},
	month = {Apr},
	pages = {854{\textendash}863},
	abstract = {Trans fatty acids (TFAs) have harmful biologic effects that could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but evidence remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of TFA biomarkers and T2D by conducting an individual participant-level pooled analysis.\ 18 years without prevalent diabetes. Each cohort conducted de novo harmonized analyses using a prespecified protocol, and findings were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by prespecified between-study and within-study characteristics.\ 0.1).\ Circulating individual trans-18:2 TFA biomarkers were not associated with risk of T2D, while trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated. Findings may reflect the influence of mixed TFA sources (industrial vs. natural ruminant), a general decline in TFA exposure due to policy changes during this period, or the relatively limited range of TFA levels.},
	author = {Lai, H. T. M. and Imamura, F. and Korat, A. V. A. and Murphy, R. A. and Tintle, N. and Bassett, J. K. and Chen, J. and ger, J. and Chien, K. L. and Senn, M. and Wood, A. C. and Forouhi, N. G. and Schulze, M. B. and Harris, W. S. and Vasan, R. S. and Hu, F. and Giles, G. G. and Hodge, A. and Djousse, L. and Brouwer, I. A. and Qian, F. and Sun, Q. and Wu, J. H. Y. and Marklund, M. and Lemaitre, R. N. and Siscovick, D. S. and Fretts, A. M. and Shadyab, A. H. and Manson, J. E. and Howard, B. V. and Robinson, J. G. and Wallace, R. B. and Wareham, N. J. and Chen, Y. I. and Rotter, J. I. and Tsai, M. Y. and Micha, R. and Mozaffarian, D.}
}
