@article {967, title = {Association of carotid artery intima-media thickness, plaques, and C-reactive protein with future cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {116}, year = {2007}, month = {2007 Jul 03}, pages = {32-8}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Carotid atherosclerosis, measured as carotid intima-media thickness or as characteristics of plaques, has been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. We investigated the relationship between carotid atherosclerosis and CRP and their joint roles in CVD prediction.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 5888 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, an observational study of adults aged > or = 65 years, 5020 without baseline CVD were included in the analysis. They were followed up for as long as 12 years for CVD incidence and all-cause mortality after baseline ultrasound and CRP measurement. When CRP was elevated (> 3 mg/L) among those with detectable atherosclerosis on ultrasound, there was a 72\% (95\% CI, 1.46 to 2.01) increased risk for CVD death and a 52\% (95\% CI, 1.37 to 1.68) increased risk for all-cause mortality. Elevated CRP in the absence of atherosclerosis did not increase CVD or all-cause mortality risk. The proportion of excess risk attributable to the interaction of high CRP and atherosclerosis was 54\% for CVD death and 79\% for all-cause mortality. Addition of CRP or carotid atherosclerosis to conventional risk factors modestly increased in the ability to predict CVD, as measured by the c statistic.

CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, elevated CRP was associated with increased risk for CVD and all-cause mortality only in those with detectable atherosclerosis based on carotid ultrasound. Despite the significant associations of CRP and carotid atherosclerosis with CVD, these measures modestly improve the prediction of CVD outcomes after one accounts for the conventional risk factors.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Aged, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Artery Diseases, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Diabetes Mellitus, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hyperlipidemias, Hypertension, Incidence, Inflammation, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Mass Screening, Mortality, Myocardial Infarction, Obesity, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, ROC Curve, Smoking, Stroke, Survival Analysis, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media, Ultrasonography, United States}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.645606}, author = {Cao, Jie J and Arnold, Alice M and Manolio, Teri A and Polak, Joseph F and Psaty, Bruce M and Hirsch, Calvin H and Kuller, Lewis H and Cushman, Mary} } @article {6220, title = {Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {45}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Feb}, pages = {403-12}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors.

METHODS: The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged >=55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke.

RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3{\texttimes}10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7{\texttimes}10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)).

CONCLUSIONS: The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Area Under Curve, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genome-Wide Association Study, Genotype, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, ROC Curve, Sex Factors, Stroke}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.113.003044}, author = {Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A and Fornage, Myriam and Bis, Joshua C and Choi, Seung Hoan and Psaty, Bruce M and Meigs, James B and Rao, Madhu and Nalls, Mike and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Christopher J and Kathiresan, Sekar and Ehret, Georg B and Fox, Caroline S and Malik, Rainer and Dichgans, Martin and Schmidt, Helena and Lahti, Jari and Heckbert, Susan R and Lumley, Thomas and Rice, Kenneth and Rotter, Jerome I and Taylor, Kent D and Folsom, Aaron R and Boerwinkle, Eric and Rosamond, Wayne D and Shahar, Eyal and Gottesman, Rebecca F and Koudstaal, Peter J and Amin, Najaf and Wieberdink, Renske G and Dehghan, Abbas and Hofman, Albert and Uitterlinden, Andr{\'e} G and DeStefano, Anita L and Debette, Stephanie and Xue, Luting and Beiser, Alexa and Wolf, Philip A and DeCarli, Charles and Ikram, M Arfan and Seshadri, Sudha and Mosley, Thomas H and Longstreth, W T and van Duijn, Cornelia M and Launer, Lenore J} }