@article {8626, title = {Performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Estimate Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Body Mass Index.}, journal = {JAMA Netw Open}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 10 01}, pages = {e2023242}, abstract = {

Importance: Obesity is a global health challenge and a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASVCD). Performance of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) for ASCVD risk by body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is unknown.

Objective: To assess performance of the PCE across clinical BMI categories.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used pooled individual-level data from 8 community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort studies with 10-year ASCVD event follow-up from 1996 to 2016. We included all adults ages 40 to 79 years without baseline ASCVD or statin use, resulting in a sample size of 37 311 participants. Data were analyzed from August 2017 to July 2020.

Exposures: Participant BMI category: underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5 to <25), overweight (25 to <30), mild obesity (30 to <35), and moderate to severe obesity (>=35).

Main Outcomes and Measures: Discrimination (Harrell C statistic) and calibration (Nam-D{\textquoteright}Agostino χ2 goodness-of-fit test) of the PCE across BMI categories. Improvement in discrimination and net reclassification with addition of BMI, waist circumference, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) to the PCE.

Results: Among 37 311 participants (mean [SD] age, 58.6 [11.8] years; 21 897 [58.7\%] women), 380 604 person-years of follow-up were conducted. Mean (SD) baseline BMI was 29.0 (6.2), and 360 individuals (1.0\%) were in the underweight category, 9937 individuals (26.6\%) were in the normal weight category, 13 601 individuals (36.4\%) were in the overweight category, 7783 individuals (20.9\%) were in the mild obesity category, and 5630 individuals (15.1\%) were in the moderate to severe obesity category. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) 10-year estimated ASCVD risk was 7.1\% (2.5\%-15.4\%), and 3709 individuals (9.9\%) developed ASCVD over a median (IQR) 10.8 [8.5-12.6] years. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk in the overall cohort (estimated/observed [E/O] risk ratio, 1.22; 95\% CI, 1.18-1.26) and across all BMI categories except the underweight category. Calibration was better near the clinical decision threshold in all BMI groups but worse among individuals with moderate or severe obesity (E/O risk ratio, 1.36; 95\% CI, 1.25-1.47) and among those with the highest estimated ASCVD risk >=20\%. The PCE C statistic overall was 0.760 (95\% CI, 0.753-0.767), with lower discrimination in the moderate or severe obesity group (C statistic, 0.742; 95\% CI, 0.721-0.763) compared with the normal-range BMI group (C statistic, 0.785; 95\% CI, 0.772-0.798). Waist circumference (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95\% CI, 1.03-1.11) and hsCRP (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95\% CI, 1.05-1.09), but not BMI, were associated with increased ASCVD risk when added to the PCE. However, these factors did not improve model performance (C statistic, 0.760; 95\% CI, 0.753-0.767) with or without added metrics.

Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the PCE had acceptable model discrimination and were well calibrated at clinical decision thresholds but overestimated risk of ASCVD for individuals in overweight and obese categories, particularly individuals with high estimated risk. Incorporation of the usual clinical measures of obesity did not improve risk estimation of the PCE. Future research is needed to determine whether incorporation of alternative high-risk obesity markers (eg, weight trajectory or measures of visceral or ectopic fat) into the PCE may improve risk prediction.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Body Mass Index, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Correlation of Data, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors}, issn = {2574-3805}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.23242}, author = {Khera, Rohan and Pandey, Ambarish and Ayers, Colby R and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Greenland, Philip and Ndumele, Chiadi E and Nambi, Vijay and Seliger, Stephen L and Chaves, Paulo H M and Safford, Monika M and Cushman, Mary and Xanthakis, Vanessa and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Mentz, Robert J and Correa, Adolfo and Lloyd-Jones, Donald M and Berry, Jarett D and de Lemos, James A and Neeland, Ian J} } @article {8703, title = {Association of Midlife Cardiovascular Risk Factors With the Risk of Heart Failure Subtypes Later in Life.}, journal = {J Card Fail}, volume = {27}, year = {2021}, month = {2021 Apr}, pages = {435-444}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Independent associations between cardiovascular risk factor exposures during midlife and later life development of heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) versus reduced EF (HFrEF) have not been previously studied.

METHODS: We pooled data from 4 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Cardiovascular Health, Health , Aging and Body Composition, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and imputed annual risk factor trajectories for body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose starting from age 40 years. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during midlife and later life were calculated and analyzed for associations with the development of HFpEF or HFrEF.

RESULTS: A total of 23,861 participants were included (mean age at first in-person visit, 61.8 {\textpm}1 0.2 years; 56.6\% female). During a median follow-up of 12 years, there were 3666 incident HF events, of which 51\% had EF measured, including 934 with HFpEF and 739 with HFrEF. A high midlife systolic blood pressure and low midlife high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with HFrEF, and a high midlife body mass index, systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and glucose were associated with HFpEF. After adjusting for later life exposures, only midlife pulse pressure remained independently associated with HFpEF.

CONCLUSIONS: Midlife exposure to cardiovascular risk factors are differentially associated with HFrEF and HFpEF later in life. Having a higher pulse pressure during midlife is associated with a greater risk for HFpEF but not HFrEF, independent of later life exposures.

}, issn = {1532-8414}, doi = {10.1016/j.cardfail.2020.11.008}, author = {Cohen, Laura P and Vittinghoff, Eric and Pletcher, Mark J and Allen, Norrina B and Shah, Sanjiv J and Wilkins, John T and Chang, Patricia P and Ndumele, Chiadi E and Newman, Anne B and Ives, Diane and Maurer, Mathew S and Oelsner, Elizabeth C and Moran, Andrew E and Zhang, Yiyi} } @article {9000, title = {Associations of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference in Young Adulthood with Later Life Incident Diabetes.}, journal = {J Clin Endocrinol Metab}, volume = {106}, year = {2021}, month = {2021 11 19}, pages = {e5011-e5020}, abstract = {

CONTEXT: The independent contribution of young adult exposure to overweight and obesity to later-life incident diabetes is not well studied.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of exposures to elevated body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in young adulthood (ages 18-39 years) with incident diabetes later in life (>=40 years).

DESIGN: Pooled data from 6 US prospective cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Cardiovascular Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, (4) Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort, (5) Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, and (6) Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

SETTING: Population-based cohort studies.

PARTICIPANTS: 30 780 participants (56.1\% female, 69.8\% non-Hispanic white) without a diagnosis of diabetes by age 40.

INTERVENTIONS: We imputed BMI and WC trajectories from age 18 for every participant and estimated time-weighted average exposures to BMI or WC during young adulthood and later life.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Incident diabetes defined as fasting glucose >=126 mg/dL, nonfasting glucose >=200 mg/dL, or use of diabetes medications.

RESULTS: During a 9-year median follow-up, 4323 participants developed incident diabetes. Young adult BMI and WC were associated with later-life incident diabetes after controlling for later-life exposures [hazard ratios (HR) 1.99 for BMI >= 30 kg/m2 and 2.13 for WC > 88cm (women)/>102cm (men) compared to normal ranges]. Young adult homeostatic model of insulin resistance mediated 49\% and 44\% of the association between BMI and WC with later-life incident diabetes. High-density lipoproteins and triglycerides mediated a smaller proportion of these associations.

CONCLUSIONS: Elevated BMI and WC during young adulthood were independently associated with later-life incident diabetes. Insulin resistance may be a key mediator.

}, keywords = {Adolescent, Adult, Biomarkers, Body Mass Index, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Obesity, Overweight, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States, Waist Circumference, Young Adult}, issn = {1945-7197}, doi = {10.1210/clinem/dgab551}, author = {Nair, Nandini and Vittinghoff, Eric and Pletcher, Mark J and Oelsner, Elizabeth C and Allen, Norrina B and Ndumele, Chiadi E and West, Nancy A and Strotmeyer, Elsa S and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Siscovick, David S and Biggs, Mary L and Laferr{\`e}re, Blandine and Moran, Andrew E and Zhang, Yiyi} } @article {9637, title = {Development and Validation of the American Heart Association{\textquoteright}s PREVENT Equations.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {149}, year = {2024}, month = {2024 Feb 06}, pages = {430-449}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD.

METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets.

RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean{\textpm}SD age was 53{\textpm}12 years, and 56\% were women. Over a mean{\textpm}SD follow-up of 4.8{\textpm}3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; =0.01).

CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Albumins, American Heart Association, Atherosclerosis, Cardiovascular Diseases, Creatinine, Female, Glycated Hemoglobin, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626}, author = {Khan, Sadiya S and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Sang, Yingying and Ballew, Shoshana H and Grams, Morgan E and Surapaneni, Aditya and Blaha, Michael J and Carson, April P and Chang, Alexander R and Ciemins, Elizabeth and Go, Alan S and Gutierrez, Orlando M and Hwang, Shih-Jen and Jassal, Simerjot K and Kovesdy, Csaba P and Lloyd-Jones, Donald M and Shlipak, Michael G and Palaniappan, Latha P and Sperling, Laurence and Virani, Salim S and Tuttle, Katherine and Neeland, Ian J and Chow, Sheryl L and Rangaswami, Janani and Pencina, Michael J and Ndumele, Chiadi E and Coresh, Josef} } @article {9705, title = {High Throughput Plasma Proteomics and Risk of Heart Failure and Frailty in Late Life.}, journal = {JAMA Cardiol}, volume = {9}, year = {2024}, month = {2024 Jul 01}, pages = {649-658}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: Heart failure (HF) and frailty frequently coexist and may share a common pathobiology, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding these mechanisms may provide guidance for preventing and treating both conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To identify shared pathways between incident HF and frailty in late life using large-scale proteomics.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, 4877 aptamers (Somascan v4) were measured among participants in the community-based longitudinal Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) cohort study at visit 3 (V3; 1993-1995; n = 10 638) and at visit 5 (V5; 2011-2013; n = 3908). Analyses were externally replicated among 3189 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Data analysis was conducted from February 2022 to June 2023.

EXPOSURES: Protein aptamers, measured at study V3 and V5.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Outcomes assessed included incident HF hospitalization after V3 and after V5, prevalent frailty at V5, and incident frailty between V5 and visit 6 (V6; 2016-2017; n = 4131). Frailty was assessed using the Fried criteria. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race, field center, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, prevalent coronary heart disease, prevalent atrial fibrillation, and history of myocardial infarction. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to assess potential causal effects of candidate proteins on HF and frailty.

RESULTS: A total of 4877 protein aptamers were measured among 10 638 participants at V3 (mean [SD] age, 60 [6] years; 4886 [46\%] men). Overall, 286 proteins were associated with incident HF after V3 (822 events; P < 1.0 {\texttimes} 10-5), 83 of which were also associated with incident after V5 (336 events; P < 1.7 {\texttimes} 10-4). Among HF-free participants at V5 (n = 3908; mean [SD] age, 75 [5] years; 1861 [42\%] men), 48 of 83 HF-associated proteins were associated with prevalent frailty (223 cases; P < 6.0 {\texttimes} 10-4), 18 of which were also associated with incident frailty at V6 (152 cases; P < 1.0 {\texttimes} 10-3). These proteins enriched fibrosis and inflammation pathways and demonstrated stronger associations with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) than HF with reduced ejection fraction. All 18 proteins were associated with both prevalent frailty and incident HF in CHS. MR identified potential causal effects of several proteins on frailty and HF.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, the proteins associated with risk of HF and frailty enrich for pathways related to inflammation and fibrosis as well as risk of HFpEF. Several of these proteins could potentially contribute to the shared pathophysiology of frailty and HF.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Female, Frailty, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Proteomics, Risk Factors}, issn = {2380-6591}, doi = {10.1001/jamacardio.2024.1178}, author = {Ramonfaur, Diego and Buckley, Leo F and Arthur, Victoria and Yang, Yimin and Claggett, Brian L and Ndumele, Chiadi E and Walker, Keenan A and Austin, Thomas and Odden, Michelle C and Floyd, James S and Sanders-van Wijk, Sandra and Njoroge, Joyce and Kizer, Jorge R and Kitzman, Dalane and Konety, Suma H and Schrack, Jennifer and Liu, Fangyu and Windham, B Gwen and Palta, Priya and Coresh, Josef and Yu, Bing and Shah, Amil M} }