@article {927, title = {African ancestry, socioeconomic status, and kidney function in elderly African Americans: a genetic admixture analysis.}, journal = {J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {17}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Dec}, pages = {3491-6}, abstract = {

Kidney disease is a major public health problem in the United States that affects African Americans disproportionately. The relative contribution of environmental and genetic factors to the increased burden of kidney disease among African Americans is unknown. The associations of genetic African ancestry and socioeconomic status with kidney function were studied cross-sectionally and longitudinally among 736 community-dwelling African Americans who were aged >65 yr and participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Genetic African ancestry was determined by genotyping 24 biallelic ancestry-informative markers and combining this information statistically to generate an estimate of ancestry for each individual. Kidney function was evaluated by cystatin C and estimated GFR (eGFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation. Longitudinal changes in serum creatinine and eGFR were estimated using baseline and follow-up values. In cross-sectional analyses, there was no association between genetic African ancestry and either measure of kidney function (P = 0.36 for cystatin C and 0.68 for eGFR). African ancestry was not associated with change in serum creatinine > or =0.05 mg/dl per yr (odds ratio [OR] 0.94; 95\% confidence interval [CI] 0.83 to 1.06) or with change in eGFR > or =3 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per yr (OR 1.02; 95\% CI 0.92 to 1.13). In contrast, self reported African-American race was strongly associated with increased risk for kidney disease progression compared with white individuals for change in creatinine (OR 1.77; 95\% CI 1.33 to 2.36) and for change in eGFR (OR 3.21; 95\% CI 2.54 to 4.06). Among self-identified African Americans, low income (< US dollars 8000/yr) was strongly associated with prevalent kidney dysfunction by cystatin C >1.29 g/dl (adjusted OR 2.7; 95\% CI 1.0 to 7.5) or by eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (adjusted OR 3.2; 95\% CI 1.1 to 9.4) compared with those with incomes >US dollars 35,000/yr. Alleles that are known to be present more frequently in the African ancestral group were not associated with kidney dysfunction or kidney disease progression. Rather, kidney dysfunction in elderly African Americans seems more attributable to differences in environmental and social factors.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Aged, Creatinine, Cross-Sectional Studies, Cystatin C, Cystatins, Disease Progression, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Diseases, Linear Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Social Class}, issn = {1046-6673}, doi = {10.1681/ASN.2006050493}, author = {Peralta, Carmen A and Ziv, Elad and Katz, Ronit and Reiner, Alex and Burchard, Esteban Gonz{\'a}lez and Fried, Linda and Kwok, Pui-Yan and Psaty, Bruce and Shlipak, Michael} } @article {1348, title = {Antihypertensive medication use and change in kidney function in elderly adults: a marginal structural model analysis.}, journal = {Int J Biostat}, volume = {7}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {Article 34}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The evidence for the effectiveness of antihypertensive medication use for slowing decline in kidney function in older persons is sparse. We addressed this research question by the application of novel methods in a marginal structural model.

METHODS: Change in kidney function was measured by two or more measures of cystatin C in 1,576 hypertensive participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study over 7 years of follow-up (1989-1997 in four U.S. communities). The exposure of interest was antihypertensive medication use. We used a novel estimator in a marginal structural model to account for bias due to confounding and informative censoring.

RESULTS: The mean annual decline in eGFR was 2.41 {\textpm} 4.91 mL/min/1.73 m(2). In unadjusted analysis, antihypertensive medication use was not associated with annual change in kidney function. Traditional multivariable regression did not substantially change these estimates. Based on a marginal structural analysis, persons on antihypertensives had slower declines in kidney function; participants had an estimated 0.88 (0.13, 1.63) ml/min/1.73 m(2) per year slower decline in eGFR compared with persons on no treatment. In a model that also accounted for bias due to informative censoring, the estimate for the treatment effect was 2.23 (-0.13, 4.59) ml/min/1.73 m(2) per year slower decline in eGFR.

CONCLUSION: In summary, estimates from a marginal structural model suggested that antihypertensive therapy was associated with preserved kidney function in hypertensive elderly adults. Confirmatory studies may provide power to determine the strength and validity of the findings.

}, keywords = {Aged, Antihypertensive Agents, Cystatin C, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Hypertension, Kidney, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Models, Statistical}, issn = {1557-4679}, doi = {10.2202/1557-4679.1320}, author = {Odden, Michelle C and Tager, Ira B and van der Laan, Mark J and Delaney, Joseph A C and Peralta, Carmen A and Katz, Ronit and Sarnak, Mark J and Psaty, Bruce M and Shlipak, Michael G} } @article {1256, title = {Cystatin C identifies chronic kidney disease patients at higher risk for complications.}, journal = {J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {22}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Jan}, pages = {147-55}, abstract = {

Although cystatin C is a stronger predictor of clinical outcomes associated with CKD than creatinine, the clinical role for cystatin C is unclear. We included 11,909 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and assessed risks for death, cardiovascular events, heart failure, and ESRD among persons categorized into mutually exclusive groups on the basis of the biomarkers that supported a diagnosis of CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)): creatinine only, cystatin C only, both, or neither. We used CKD-EPI equations to estimate GFR from these biomarkers. In MESA, 9\% had CKD by the creatinine-based equation only, 2\% had CKD by the cystatin C-based equation only, and 4\% had CKD by both equations; in CHS, these percentages were 12, 4, and 13\%, respectively. Compared with those without CKD, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality in MESA were: 0.80 (95\% CI 0.50 to 1.26) for CKD by creatinine only; 3.23 (95\% CI 1.84 to 5.67) for CKD by cystatin C only; and 1.93 (95\% CI 1.27 to 2.92) for CKD by both; in CHS, the adjusted HR were 1.09 (95\% CI 0.98 to 1.21), 1.78 (95\% CI 1.53 to 2.08), and 1.74 (95\% CI 1.58 to 1.93), respectively. The pattern was similar for cardiovascular disease (CVD), heart failure, and kidney failure outcomes. In conclusion, among adults diagnosed with CKD using the creatinine-based CKD-EPI equation, the adverse prognosis is limited to the subset who also have CKD according to the cystatin C-based equation. Cystatin C may have a role in identifying persons with CKD who have the highest risk for complications.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Chronic Disease, Creatinine, Cystatin C, Disease Progression, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Heart Failure, Humans, Kidney Diseases, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors}, issn = {1533-3450}, doi = {10.1681/ASN.2010050483}, author = {Peralta, Carmen A and Katz, Ronit and Sarnak, Mark J and Ix, Joachim and Fried, Linda F and de Boer, Ian and Palmas, Walter and Siscovick, David and Levey, Andrew S and Shlipak, Michael G} } @article {1327, title = {Genetic association for renal traits among participants of African ancestry reveals new loci for renal function.}, journal = {PLoS Genet}, volume = {7}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Sep}, pages = {e1002264}, abstract = {

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an increasing global public health concern, particularly among populations of African ancestry. We performed an interrogation of known renal loci, genome-wide association (GWA), and IBC candidate-gene SNP association analyses in African Americans from the CARe Renal Consortium. In up to 8,110 participants, we performed meta-analyses of GWA and IBC array data for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and microalbuminuria (UACR >30 mg/g) and interrogated the 250 kb flanking region around 24 SNPs previously identified in European Ancestry renal GWAS analyses. Findings were replicated in up to 4,358 African Americans. To assess function, individually identified genes were knocked down in zebrafish embryos by morpholino antisense oligonucleotides. Expression of kidney-specific genes was assessed by in situ hybridization, and glomerular filtration was evaluated by dextran clearance. Overall, 23 of 24 previously identified SNPs had direction-consistent associations with eGFR in African Americans, 2 of which achieved nominal significance (UMOD, PIP5K1B). Interrogation of the flanking regions uncovered 24 new index SNPs in African Americans, 12 of which were replicated (UMOD, ANXA9, GCKR, TFDP2, DAB2, VEGFA, ATXN2, GATM, SLC22A2, TMEM60, SLC6A13, and BCAS3). In addition, we identified 3 suggestive loci at DOK6 (p-value = 5.3{\texttimes}10(-7)) and FNDC1 (p-value = 3.0{\texttimes}10(-7)) for UACR, and KCNQ1 with eGFR (p = 3.6{\texttimes}10(-6)). Morpholino knockdown of kcnq1 in the zebrafish resulted in abnormal kidney development and filtration capacity. We identified several SNPs in association with eGFR in African Ancestry individuals, as well as 3 suggestive loci for UACR and eGFR. Functional genetic studies support a role for kcnq1 in glomerular development in zebrafish.

}, keywords = {Adaptor Proteins, Vesicular Transport, Adult, African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Animals, Female, Gene Knockdown Techniques, Genetic Association Studies, Genetic Loci, Genome-Wide Association Study, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, KCNQ1 Potassium Channel, Kidney, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasm Proteins, Phenotype, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Zebrafish}, issn = {1553-7404}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgen.1002264}, author = {Liu, Ching-Ti and Garnaas, Maija K and Tin, Adrienne and K{\"o}ttgen, Anna and Franceschini, Nora and Peralta, Carmen A and de Boer, Ian H and Lu, Xiaoning and Atkinson, Elizabeth and Ding, Jingzhong and Nalls, Michael and Shriner, Daniel and Coresh, Josef and Kutlar, Abdullah and Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten and Siscovick, David and Akylbekova, Ermeg and Wyatt, Sharon and Astor, Brad and Mychaleckjy, Josef and Li, Man and Reilly, Muredach P and Townsend, Raymond R and Adeyemo, Adebowale and Zonderman, Alan B and de Andrade, Mariza and Turner, Stephen T and Mosley, Thomas H and Harris, Tamara B and Rotimi, Charles N and Liu, Yongmei and Kardia, Sharon L R and Evans, Michele K and Shlipak, Michael G and Kramer, Holly and Flessner, Michael F and Dreisbach, Albert W and Goessling, Wolfram and Cupples, L Adrienne and Kao, W Linda and Fox, Caroline S} } @article {1349, title = {Kidney function decline in the elderly: impact of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2).}, journal = {Am J Nephrol}, volume = {34}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {512-8}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Whether lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) levels are associated with kidney function decline has not been well studied.

METHODS: We investigated associations of Lp-PLA(2) antigen and activity with kidney function decline and rapid decline over 5.7 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study (n = 4,359). We estimated kidney function by cystatin C (eGFRcys) in repeated measures, and defined rapid decline as >=3 ml/min/1.73 m(2) per year. We stratified by baseline preserved GFR (>=60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)).

RESULTS: Mean age was 72 {\textpm} 5 years. Average eGFRcys decline was -1.79 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (SD = 2.60) per year. Among persons with preserved GFR, compared to the lowest quartile of Lp-PLA(2) antigen, eGFRcys decline was faster among persons in the second, β -0.31 (95\% CI -0.52, -0.10), third -0.19 (-0.41, 0.02) and fourth quartiles -0.26 (-0.48, -0.04) after full adjustment. Persons in the highest quartile of Lp-PLA(2) antigen had increased odds of rapid decline 1.34 (1.03, 1.75), compared to the lowest. There was no significant association between levels of Lp-PLA(2) activity and eGFRcys decline or rapid decline. Associations were not statistically significant among persons with low eGFR (<60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) at baseline.

CONCLUSION: Higher levels of Lp-PLA(2) antigen but not activity were significantly associated with faster rates of kidney function decline. These findings may suggest a novel vascular pathway for kidney disease progression.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Creatinine, Cystatin C, Disease Progression, Female, Geriatrics, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney, Kidney Diseases, Male, Middle Aged, Phospholipases A2, Risk Factors, Treatment Outcome}, issn = {1421-9670}, doi = {10.1159/000333045}, author = {Peralta, Carmen A and Katz, Ronit and Shlipak, Michael and Dubin, Ruth and DeBoer, Ian and Jenny, Nancy and Fitzpatrick, Annette and Koro, Carol and Kestenbaum, Bryan and Ix, Joachim and Sarnak, Mark and Cushman, Mary} } @article {1372, title = {Insulin resistance, cystatin C, and mortality among older adults.}, journal = {Diabetes Care}, volume = {35}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Jun}, pages = {1355-60}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: Insulin resistance is a risk factor for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases. Impaired kidney function is linked with insulin resistance and may affect relationships of insulin resistance with health outcomes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a cohort study of 3,138 Cardiovascular Health Study participants (age >= 65 years) without diabetes. Insulin sensitivity index (ISI) was calculated from fasting and 2-h postload insulin and glucose concentrations. Associations of ISI and fasting insulin concentration with all-cause mortality were tested using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for demographic variables, prevalent cardiovascular disease, lifestyle variables, waist circumference, and LDL cholesterol. Subsequent models were additionally adjusted for or stratified by glomerular filtration rate estimated using serum cystatin C (eGFR).

RESULTS: A total of 1,810 participants died during the 14.7-year median follow-up. Compared with the highest quartile of ISI, the lowest quartile (most insulin resistant) was associated with 21\% (95\% CI 6-41) and 11\% (-3 to 29) higher risks of death without and with adjustment for eGFR, respectively. Compared with the lowest quartile of fasting insulin concentration, the highest quartile was associated with 22\% (4-43) and 4\% (-12 to 22) higher risks of death without and with adjustment for eGFR, respectively. Similar attenuation by eGFR was observed when blood pressure, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, and C-reactive protein were included in models.

CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance measured as ISI or fasting insulin concentration is associated with increased risk of death among older adults, adjusting for conventional confounding characteristics. Impaired kidney function may mediate or confound this relationship.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Glucose, Blood Pressure, C-Reactive Protein, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cholesterol, HDL, Cholesterol, LDL, Cohort Studies, Cystatin C, Fasting, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Insulin Resistance, Life Style, Male, Mortality, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Renal Insufficiency, Risk Factors, Triglycerides, Waist Circumference}, issn = {1935-5548}, doi = {10.2337/dc11-1657}, author = {de Boer, Ian H and Katz, Ronit and Chonchol, Michel B and Fried, Linda F and Ix, Joachim H and Kestenbaum, Bryan and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Peralta, Carmen A and Siscovick, David S} } @article {1395, title = {Kidney function and mortality in octogenarians: Cardiovascular Health Study All Stars.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {60}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Jul}, pages = {1201-7}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between kidney function and all-cause mortality in octogenarians.

DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.

SETTING: Community.

PARTICIPANTS: Serum creatinine and cystatin C were measured in 1,053 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) All Stars participants.

MEASUREMENTS: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was determined using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine (eGFR(CR) ) and cystatin C one-variable (eGFR(CYS) ) equations. The association between quintiles of kidney function and all-cause mortality was analyzed using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS: Mean age of the participants was 85, 64\% were female, 66\% had hypertension, 14\% had diabetes mellitus, and 39\% had prevalent cardiovascular disease. There were 154 deaths over a median follow-up of 2.6 years. The association between eGFR(CR) and all-cause mortality was U-shaped. In comparison with the reference quintile (64-75 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) ), the highest (>= 75 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) ) and lowest (<= 43 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) ) quintiles of eGFR(CR) were independently associated with mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.49, 95\% confidence interval (CI) = 1.36-4.55; HR = 2.28, 95\% CI = 1.26-4.10, respectively). The association between eGFR(CYS) and all-cause mortality was linear in those with eGFR(CYS) of less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) , and in the multivariate analyses, the lowest quintile of eGFR(CYS) (<52 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) ) was significantly associated with mortality (HR = 2.04, 95\% CI = 1.12-3.71) compared with the highest quintile (>0.88 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) ).

CONCLUSION: Moderate reduction in kidney function is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in octogenarians. The association between eGFR(CR) and all-cause mortality differed from that observed with eGFR(CYS) ; the relationship was U-shaped for eGFR(CR) , whereas the risk was primarily present in the lowest quintile for eGFR(CYS) .

}, keywords = {Aged, 80 and over, Analysis of Variance, Cardiovascular Diseases, Chi-Square Distribution, Creatinine, Cystatin C, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Hypertension, Kidney Diseases, Male, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1532-5415}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2012.04046.x}, author = {Shastri, Shani and Katz, Ronit and Rifkin, Dena E and Fried, Linda F and Odden, Michelle C and Peralta, Carmen A and Chonchol, Michel and Siscovick, David and Shlipak, Michael G and Newman, Anne B and Sarnak, Mark J} } @article {5999, title = {Blood pressure components and decline in kidney function in community-living older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Am J Hypertens}, volume = {26}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Aug}, pages = {1037-44}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Although hypertension contributes to kidney dysfunction in the general population, the contributions of elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and pulse pressure (PP) to kidney function decline in community-dwelling older adults are unknown.

METHODS: We used linear and logistic regression to examine the separate and combined associations of SBP, DBP, and PP at baseline with kidney function decline among 4,365 older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We used cystatin C to estimate glomerular filtration rate on 3 occasions over 7 years of follow-up. We defined rapid decline >= 3ml/min/year.

RESULTS: Average age was 72.2 and mean (standard deviation) SBP, DBP, and PP were 135 (21), 71 (11), and 65 (18) mm Hg, respectively. SBP and PP, rather than DBP, were most significantly associated with kidney function decline. In adjusted linear models, each 10-mm Hg increment in SBP and PP was associated with 0.13ml/min/year (-0.19, -0.08, P < 0.001) and 0.15-ml/min/year faster decline (-0.21, -0.09, P < 0.001), respectively. Each 10-mm Hg increment in DBP was associated with a nonsignificant 0.10-ml/min/year faster decline (95\% confidence interval, -0.20, 0.01). In adjusted logistic models, SBP had the strongest associations with rapid decline, with 14\% increased hazard of rapid decline (95\% confidence interval, 10\% to 17\%, P < 0.01) per 10mm Hg. In models combining BP components, only SBP consistently had independent associations with rapid decline.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that elevated BP, particularly SBP, contributes to declining kidney function in older adults.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Cystatin C, Diastole, Disease Progression, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Hypertension, Logistic Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Pulse, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Systole}, issn = {1941-7225}, doi = {10.1093/ajh/hpt067}, author = {Rifkin, Dena E and Katz, Ronit and Chonchol, Michel and Shlipak, Michael G and Sarnak, Mark J and Fried, Linda F and Newman, Anne B and Siscovick, David S and Peralta, Carmen A} } @article {6295, title = {Relative risks of chronic kidney disease for mortality and end-stage renal disease across races are similar.}, journal = {Kidney Int}, volume = {86}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Oct}, pages = {819-27}, abstract = {

Some suggest race-specific cutpoints for kidney measures to define and stage chronic kidney disease (CKD), but evidence for race-specific clinical impact is limited. To address this issue, we compared hazard ratios of estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and albuminuria across races using meta-regression in 1.1 million adults (75\% Asians, 21\% Whites, and 4\% Blacks) from 45 cohorts. Results came mainly from 25 general population cohorts comprising 0.9 million individuals. The associations of lower eGFR and higher albuminuria with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were largely similar across races. For example, in Asians, Whites, and Blacks, the adjusted hazard ratios (95\% confidence interval) for eGFR 45-59 versus 90-104 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) were 1.3 (1.2-1.3), 1.1 (1.0-1.2), and 1.3 (1.1-1.7) for all-cause mortality, 1.6 (1.5-1.7), 1.4 (1.2-1.7), and 1.4 (0.7-2.9) for cardiovascular mortality, and 27.6 (11.1-68.7), 11.2 (6.0-20.9), and 4.1 (2.2-7.5) for ESRD, respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio 30-299 mg/g or dipstick 1+ versus an albumin-to-creatinine ratio under 10 or dipstick negative were 1.6 (1.4-1.8), 1.7 (1.5-1.9), and 1.8 (1.7-2.1) for all-cause mortality, 1.7 (1.4-2.0), 1.8 (1.5-2.1), and 2.8 (2.2-3.6) for cardiovascular mortality, and 7.4 (2.0-27.6), 4.0 (2.8-5.9), and 5.6 (3.4-9.2) for ESRD, respectively. Thus, the relative mortality or ESRD risks of lower eGFR and higher albuminuria were largely similar among three major races, supporting similar clinical approach to CKD definition and staging, across races.

}, keywords = {Adult, African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Albuminuria, Asian Continental Ancestry Group, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Creatinine, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Odds Ratio, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk Factors}, issn = {1523-1755}, doi = {10.1038/ki.2013.553}, author = {Wen, Chi Pang and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Coresh, Josef and Iseki, Kunitoshi and Islam, Muhammad and Katz, Ronit and McClellan, William and Peralta, Carmen A and Wang, Haiyan and de Zeeuw, Dick and Astor, Brad C and Gansevoort, Ron T and Levey, Andrew S and Levin, Adeera} } @article {6659, title = {Development and validation of a model to predict 5-year risk of death without ESRD among older adults with CKD.}, journal = {Clin J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {10}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Mar 6}, pages = {363-71}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: CKD is associated with mortality. Accurate prediction tools for mortality may guide clinical decision-making, particularly among elderly persons with CKD.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, \& MEASUREMENTS: A prediction equation was developed for 5-year risk of mortality among participants with CKD in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Sixteen candidate predictor variables were explored, which included demographics, physical examination measures, comorbidity, medication use, and kidney function measures (eGFR calculated from serum creatinine and the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio). Models were developed using Cox regression and evaluated using c statistics. A final parsimonious model was externally validated in an independent cohort of community-living elders with CKD in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study.

RESULTS: The development cohort included 828 participants who had a mean age of 80 ({\textpm}5.6) years and an eGFR of 47 ({\textpm}11) ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 13 (interquartile range 6-51) mg/g. The validation cohort included 789 participants who had a mean age of 74 ({\textpm}2.8) years and an eGFR of 50 ({\textpm}9) ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 13 (interquartile range 6-42) mg/g. The final model for 5-year mortality risk included age, sex, race, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of heart failure and stroke (c statistic=0.72; 95\% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.74). When a point-based system was assigned for each of nine variables in the equation, the estimated risk of death within 5 years ranged from 3.8\% among participants with the lowest scores to 83.6\% among participants with nine points. The model performed fair in external validation (c statistic=0.69; 95\% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.74).

CONCLUSIONS: A simple prediction tool using nine readily available clinical variables can assist in predicting 5-year mortality risk in elderly patients with CKD, which may be useful in counseling patients and guiding clinical decision making.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Albuminuria, Continental Population Groups, Creatinine, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Proportional Hazards Models, Regression Analysis, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Smoking, Stroke}, issn = {1555-905X}, doi = {10.2215/CJN.04650514}, author = {Bansal, Nisha and Katz, Ronit and de Boer, Ian H and Peralta, Carmen A and Fried, Linda F and Siscovick, David S and Rifkin, Dena E and Hirsch, Calvin and Cummings, Steven R and Harris, Tamara B and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Sarnak, Mark J and Shlipak, Michael G and Ix, Joachim H} }