@article {1114, title = {Variants in ZFHX3 are associated with atrial fibrillation in individuals of European ancestry.}, journal = {Nat Genet}, volume = {41}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Aug}, pages = {879-81}, abstract = {

We conducted meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for atrial fibrillation (AF) in participants from five community-based cohorts. Meta-analyses of 896 prevalent (15,768 referents) and 2,517 incident (21,337 referents) AF cases identified a new locus for AF (ZFHX3, rs2106261, risk ratio RR = 1.19; P = 2.3 x 10(-7)). We replicated this association in an independent cohort from the German AF Network (odds ratio = 1.44; P = 1.6 x 10(-11); combined RR = 1.25; combined P = 1.8 x 10(-15)).

}, keywords = {Atrial Fibrillation, Chromosomes, Human, Pair 16, European Continental Ancestry Group, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genome-Wide Association Study, Homeodomain Proteins, Humans, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Mutation, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Reproducibility of Results}, issn = {1546-1718}, doi = {10.1038/ng.416}, author = {Benjamin, Emelia J and Rice, Kenneth M and Arking, Dan E and Pfeufer, Arne and van Noord, Charlotte and Smith, Albert V and Schnabel, Renate B and Bis, Joshua C and Boerwinkle, Eric and Sinner, Moritz F and Dehghan, Abbas and Lubitz, Steven A and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Lumley, Thomas and Ehret, Georg B and Heeringa, Jan and Aspelund, Thor and Newton-Cheh, Christopher and Larson, Martin G and Marciante, Kristin D and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Wang, Thomas J and Eiriksdottir, Gudny and Levy, Daniel and Psaty, Bruce M and Li, Man and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Hofman, Albert and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Harris, Tamara B and Rotter, Jerome I and Kao, W H Linda and Agarwal, Sunil K and Stricker, Bruno H Ch and Wang, Ke and Launer, Lenore J and Smith, Nicholas L and Chakravarti, Aravinda and Uitterlinden, Andr{\'e} G and Wolf, Philip A and Sotoodehnia, Nona and K{\"o}ttgen, Anna and van Duijn, Cornelia M and Meitinger, Thomas and Mueller, Martina and Perz, Siegfried and Steinbeck, Gerhard and Wichmann, H-Erich and Lunetta, Kathryn L and Heckbert, Susan R and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Alonso, Alvaro and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Ellinor, Patrick T and Witteman, Jacqueline C M} } @article {5878, title = {Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {2}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Mar 18}, pages = {e000102}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19\% African Americans, 81\% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95\% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95\% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95\% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95\% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95\% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.

CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Iceland, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Netherlands, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Smoking, United States}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.112.000102}, author = {Alonso, Alvaro and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Stepas, Katherine A and Pencina, Michael J and Moser, Carlee B and Sinner, Moritz F and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Ellinor, Patrick T and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Benjamin, Emelia J} } @article {6601, title = {B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein in the prediction of atrial fibrillation risk: the CHARGE-AF Consortium of community-based cohort studies.}, journal = {Europace}, volume = {16}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Oct}, pages = {1426-33}, abstract = {

AIMS: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95\% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95\% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5\%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95\% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS.

CONCLUSION: B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Europe, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1532-2092}, doi = {10.1093/europace/euu175}, author = {Sinner, Moritz F and Stepas, Katherine A and Moser, Carlee B and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Wang, Thomas J and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Franco, Oscar H and Yin, Xiaoyan and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Astor, Brad C and Ballantyne, Christie M and Hoogeveen, Ron C and Arai, Andrew E and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Ellinor, Patrick T and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Pencina, Michael J and Benjamin, Emelia J and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {6820, title = {Novel genetic markers associate with atrial fibrillation risk in Europeans and Japanese.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {63}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Apr 1}, pages = {1200-10}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify nonredundant atrial fibrillation (AF) genetic susceptibility signals and examine their cumulative relations with AF risk.

BACKGROUND: AF-associated loci span broad genomic regions that may contain multiple susceptibility signals. Whether multiple signals exist at AF loci has not been systematically explored.

METHODS: We performed association testing conditioned on the most significant, independently associated genetic markers at 9 established AF loci using 2 complementary techniques in 64,683 individuals of European ancestry (3,869 incident and 3,302 prevalent AF cases). Genetic risk scores were created and tested for association with AF in Europeans and an independent sample of 11,309 individuals of Japanese ancestry (7,916 prevalent AF cases).

RESULTS: We observed at least 4 distinct AF susceptibility signals on chromosome 4q25 upstream of PITX2, but not at the remaining 8 AF loci. A multilocus score comprised 12 genetic markers demonstrated an estimated 5-fold gradient in AF risk. We observed a similar spectrum of risk associated with these markers in Japanese. Regions containing AF signals on chromosome 4q25 displayed a greater degree of evolutionary conservation than the remainder of the locus, suggesting that they may tag regulatory elements.

CONCLUSIONS: The chromosome 4q25 AF locus is architecturally complex and harbors at least 4 AF susceptibility signals in individuals of European ancestry. Similar polygenic AF susceptibility exists between Europeans and Japanese. Future work is necessary to identify causal variants, determine mechanisms by which associated loci predispose to AF, and explore whether AF susceptibility signals classify individuals at risk for AF and related morbidity.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Asian Continental Ancestry Group, Atrial Fibrillation, Chromosome Mapping, Chromosomes, Human, Pair 4, Europe, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Genetic Markers, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Homeodomain Proteins, Humans, Japan, Male, Middle Aged, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Transcription Factors}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2013.12.015}, author = {Lubitz, Steven A and Lunetta, Kathryn L and Lin, Honghuang and Arking, Dan E and Trompet, Stella and Li, Guo and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Chasman, Daniel I and Barnard, John and Kleber, Marcus E and D{\"o}rr, Marcus and Ozaki, Kouichi and Smith, Albert V and M{\"u}ller-Nurasyid, Martina and Walter, Stefan and Agarwal, Sunil K and Bis, Joshua C and Brody, Jennifer A and Chen, Lin Y and Everett, Brendan M and Ford, Ian and Franco, Oscar H and Harris, Tamara B and Hofman, Albert and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Mahida, Saagar and Kathiresan, Sekar and Kubo, Michiaki and Launer, Lenore J and Macfarlane, Peter W and Magnani, Jared W and McKnight, Barbara and McManus, David D and Peters, Annette and Psaty, Bruce M and Rose, Lynda M and Rotter, Jerome I and Silbernagel, Guenther and Smith, Jonathan D and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Stott, David J and Taylor, Kent D and Tomaschitz, Andreas and Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko and Uitterlinden, Andr{\'e} G and Van Wagoner, David R and V{\"o}lker, Uwe and V{\"o}lzke, Henry and Murabito, Joanne M and Sinner, Moritz F and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Felix, Stephan B and M{\"a}rz, Winfried and Chung, Mina and Albert, Christine M and Stricker, Bruno H and Tanaka, Toshihiro and Heckbert, Susan R and Jukema, J Wouter and Alonso, Alvaro and Benjamin, Emelia J and Ellinor, Patrick T} } @article {6950, title = {Association of Smoking, Alcohol, and Obesity with Cardiovascular Death and Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS).}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {11}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {e0147065}, abstract = {

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke and cardiovascular (CV) death. Whether modifiable lifestyle risk factors are associated with these CV outcomes in AF is unknown. Among Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants with incident AF, we estimated the risk of composite endpoint of ischemic stroke or CV death associated with candidate modifiable risk factor (smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, or high body mass index [BMI]), and computed the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of incorporating each factor into the CHA2DS2-VASc. Among 1222 ARIC (mean age: 63.4) and 756 CHS (mean age: 79.1) participants with incident AF, during mean follow-up of 6.9 years and 5.7 years, there were 332 and 335 composite events respectively. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had a higher incidence of the composite endpoint in ARIC [HR: 1.65 (1.21-2.26)] but not in CHS [HR: 1.05 (0.69-1.61)]. In ARIC, the addition of current smoking did not improve risk prediction over and above the CHA2DS2-VASc. No significant associations were observed with alcohol consumption or BMI with CVD outcomes in AF patients from either cohort. Smoking is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke or CV death in ARIC, which comprised mostly middle-aged to young-old (65-74 years), but not in CHS, which comprised mostly middle-old or oldest-old (>=75 years) adults with AF. However, addition of smoking to the CHA2DS2-VASc score did not improve risk prediction of these outcomes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Alcohol Drinking, Atrial Fibrillation, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Smoking, Stroke}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0147065}, author = {Kwon, Younghoon and Norby, Faye L and Jensen, Paul N and Agarwal, Sunil K and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Lip, Gregory Y H and Longstreth, W T and Alonso, Alvaro and Heckbert, Susan R and Chen, Lin Y} } @article {7135, title = {Global Electric Heterogeneity Risk Score for Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death in the General Population: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Cardiovascular Health (CHS) Studies.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {133}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 Jun 7}, pages = {2222-34}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic individuals account for the majority of sudden cardiac deaths (SCDs). Development of effective, low-cost, and noninvasive SCD risk stratification tools is necessary.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and Cardiovascular Health Study (n=20 177; age, 59.3{\textpm}10.1 years; age range, 44-100 years; 56\% female; 77\% white) were followed up for 14.0 years (median). Five ECG markers of global electric heterogeneity (GEH; sum absolute QRST integral, spatial QRST angle, spatial ventricular gradient [SVG] magnitude, SVG elevation, and SVG azimuth) were measured on standard 12-lead ECGs. Cox proportional hazards and competing risks models evaluated associations between GEH electrocardiographic parameters and SCD. An SCD competing risks score was derived from demographics, comorbidities, and GEH parameters. SCD incidence was 1.86 per 1000 person-years. After multivariable adjustment, baseline GEH parameters and large increases in GEH parameters over time were independently associated with SCD. Final SCD risk scores included age, sex, race, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, and GEH parameters as continuous variables. When GEH parameters were added to clinical/demographic factors, the C statistic increased from 0.777 to 0.790 (P=0.008), the risk score classified 10-year SCD risk as high (>5\%) in 7.2\% of participants, 10\% of SCD victims were appropriately reclassified into a high-risk category, and only 1.4\% of SCD victims were inappropriately reclassified from high to intermediate risk. The net reclassification index was 18.3\%.

CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal electrophysiological substrate quantified by GEH parameters is independently associated with SCD in the general population. The addition of GEH parameters to clinical characteristics improves SCD risk prediction.

}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.116.021306}, author = {Waks, Jonathan W and Sitlani, Colleen M and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Kabir, Muammar and Ghafoori, Elyar and Biggs, Mary L and Henrikson, Charles A and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Biering-S{\o}rensen, Tor and Agarwal, Sunil K and Siscovick, David S and Post, Wendy S and Solomon, Scott D and Buxton, Alfred E and Josephson, Mark E and Tereshchenko, Larisa G} } @article {6807, title = {Orthostatic Hypotension and Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in 2 Cohort Studies.}, journal = {Am J Hypertens}, volume = {29}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 May}, pages = {634-40}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Although venous stasis is a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE) and orthostatic hypotension (OH) can cause venous stasis, to our knowledge no study has examined the relationship between OH and VTE risk. We sought to quantify the association between OH and VTE (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) using data from 2 large, prospective cohort studies: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. We hypothesized that OH was positively associated with incident VTE.

METHODS: We measured OH-defined as a drop in systolic blood pressure (SBP) of at least 20 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of at least 10 mm Hg within 3 minutes of standing-in participants aged 45-64 years in ARIC (n = 12,480) and >=65 years in CHS (n = 5,027) at baseline visits (1987-1989 in ARIC; 1989-1990 and 1992-1993 in CHS), and followed participants for incident VTE (n = 568 in ARIC through 2011 and n = 148 in CHS through 2001). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95\% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident VTE in relation to OH status.

RESULTS: In CHS, there was a positive association between OH status and incident VTE (HR for VTE = 1.74 (95\% CI: 1.20-2.51)). In contrast, there was no association between OH and VTE in the ARIC study (HR for VTE = 0.97 (95\% CI: 0.70-1.33)).

CONCLUSIONS: Community-dwelling older adults with OH had a moderately increased risk of VTE. These results were not seen in a population-based middle-aged cohort.

}, issn = {1941-7225}, doi = {10.1093/ajh/hpv151}, author = {Bell, Elizabeth J and Agarwal, Sunil K and Cushman, Mary and Heckbert, Susan R and Lutsey, Pamela L and Folsom, Aaron R} }