@article {5850, title = {Atrial fibrillation and the risk of sudden cardiac death: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study and cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {JAMA Intern Med}, volume = {173}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Jan 14}, pages = {29-35}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the general population. This association was examined in 2 population-based cohorts.

METHODS: In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we analyzed data from 15 439 participants (baseline age, 45-64 years; 55.2\% women; and 26.6\% black) from baseline (1987-1989) through December 31, 2001. In the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), we analyzed data from 5479 participants (baseline age, >=65 years; 58.2\% women; and 15.4\% black) from baseline (first cohort, 1989-1990; second cohort, 1992-1993) through December 31, 2006. The main outcome was physician-adjudicated SCD, defined as death from a sudden, pulseless condition presumed to be due to a ventricular tachyarrhythmia. The secondary outcome was non-SCD (NSCD), defined as coronary heart disease death not meeting SCD criteria. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between AF and SCD/NSCD, adjusting for baseline demographic and cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS: In the ARIC Study, 894 AF, 269 SCD, and 233 NSCD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years). The crude incidence rates of SCD were 2.89 per 1000 person-years (with AF) and 1.30 per 1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) (95\% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 3.26 (2.17-4.91) and 2.43 (1.60-3.71), respectively. In the CHS, 1458 AF, 292 SCD, and 581 NSCD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years). The crude incidence rates of SCD were 12.00 per 1000 person-years (with AF) and 3.82 per 1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable HRs (95\% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 2.14 (1.60-2.87) and 3.10 (2.58-3.72), respectively. The meta-analyzed HRs (95\% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 2.47 (1.95-3.13) and 2.98 (2.52-3.53), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Incident AF is associated with an increased risk of SCD and NSCD in the general population. Additional research to identify predictors of SCD in patients with AF is warranted.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Cardiovascular Diseases, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Demography, Ethnic Groups, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, United States}, issn = {2168-6114}, doi = {10.1001/2013.jamainternmed.744}, author = {Chen, Lin Y and Sotoodehnia, Nona and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Lopez, Faye L and Yee, Laura M and Heckbert, Susan R and Prineas, Ronald and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Adabag, Selcuk and Konety, Suma and Folsom, Aaron R and Siscovick, David and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {5998, title = {The QT interval and risk of incident atrial fibrillation.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Oct}, pages = {1562-8}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF.

METHODS: We examined a prolonged QT interval corrected by using the Framingham formula (QT(Fram)) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by using other formulas.

RESULTS: Among 14,538 ARIC study participants, a prolonged QT(Fram) predicted a roughly 2-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05; 95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-2.96; P < .001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in Cardiovascular Health Study and Health, Aging, and Body Composition study and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in the ARIC study, each 10-ms increase in QT(Fram) was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14; 95\% CI 1.10-1.17; P < .001) and adjusted (HR 1.11; 95\% CI 1.07-1.14; P < .001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT interval were inconsistent across cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS: A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Electrocardiography, Female, Humans, Incidence, Long QT Syndrome, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2013.07.023}, author = {Mandyam, Mala C and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Alonso, Alvaro and Dewland, Thomas A and Heckbert, Susan R and Vittinghoff, Eric and Cummings, Steven R and Ellinor, Patrick T and Chaitman, Bernard R and Stocke, Karen and Applegate, William B and Arking, Dan E and Butler, Javed and Loehr, Laura R and Magnani, Jared W and Murphy, Rachel A and Satterfield, Suzanne and Newman, Anne B and Marcus, Gregory M} } @article {5878, title = {Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {2}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Mar 18}, pages = {e000102}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19\% African Americans, 81\% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95\% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95\% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95\% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95\% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95\% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.

CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Iceland, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Netherlands, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Smoking, United States}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.112.000102}, author = {Alonso, Alvaro and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Stepas, Katherine A and Pencina, Michael J and Moser, Carlee B and Sinner, Moritz F and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Ellinor, Patrick T and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Benjamin, Emelia J} } @article {6543, title = {Association of sick sinus syndrome with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {9}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, pages = {e109662}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Sick sinus syndrome (SSS) is a common indication for pacemaker implantation. Limited information exists on the association of sick sinus syndrome (SSS) with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.

METHODS: We studied 19,893 men and women age 45 and older in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), two community-based cohorts, who were without a pacemaker or atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline. Incident SSS cases were validated by review of medical charts. Incident CVD and mortality were ascertained using standardized protocols. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the association of incident SSS with selected outcomes.

RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 17 years, 213 incident SSS events were identified and validated (incidence, 0.6 events per 1,000 person-years). After adjustment for confounders, SSS incidence was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39, 95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.70), coronary heart disease (HR 1.72, 95\%CI 1.11-2.66), heart failure (HR 2.87, 95\%CI 2.17-3.80), stroke (HR 1.56, 95\%CI 0.99-2.46), AF (HR 5.75, 95\%CI 4.43-7.46), and pacemaker implantation (HR 53.7, 95\%CI 42.9-67.2). After additional adjustment for other incident CVD during follow-up, SSS was no longer associated with increased mortality, coronary heart disease, or stroke, but remained associated with higher risk of heart failure (HR 2.00, 95\%CI 1.51-2.66), AF (HR 4.25, 95\%CI 3.28-5.51), and pacemaker implantation (HR 25.2, 95\%CI 19.8-32.1).

CONCLUSION: Individuals who develop SSS are at increased risk of death and CVD. The mechanisms underlying these associations warrant further investigation.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Atherosclerosis, Cohort Studies, Continental Population Groups, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Residence Characteristics, Risk, Sex Distribution, Sick Sinus Syndrome}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0109662}, author = {Alonso, Alvaro and Jensen, Paul N and Lopez, Faye L and Chen, Lin Y and Psaty, Bruce M and Folsom, Aaron R and Heckbert, Susan R} } @article {6601, title = {B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein in the prediction of atrial fibrillation risk: the CHARGE-AF Consortium of community-based cohort studies.}, journal = {Europace}, volume = {16}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Oct}, pages = {1426-33}, abstract = {

AIMS: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95\% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95\% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5\%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95\% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS.

CONCLUSION: B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Europe, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1532-2092}, doi = {10.1093/europace/euu175}, author = {Sinner, Moritz F and Stepas, Katherine A and Moser, Carlee B and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Wang, Thomas J and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Franco, Oscar H and Yin, Xiaoyan and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Astor, Brad C and Ballantyne, Christie M and Hoogeveen, Ron C and Arai, Andrew E and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Ellinor, Patrick T and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Pencina, Michael J and Benjamin, Emelia J and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {6187, title = {Height and risk of sudden cardiac death: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health studies.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {24}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Mar}, pages = {174-179.e2}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an important cause of mortality in the adult population. Height has been associated with cardiac hypertrophy and an increased risk of arrhythmias but also with decreased risk of coronary heart disease, suggesting a complex association with SCD.

METHODS: We examined the association of adult height with the risk of physician-adjudicated SCD in two large population-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

RESULTS: Over an average follow-up time of 11.7 years in Cardiovascular Health Study, there were 199 (3.6\%) cases of SCD among 5556 participants. In Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, over 12.6 years, there were 227 (1.5\%) cases of SCD among 15,633 participants. In both cohorts, there was a trend toward decreased SCD with taller height. In fixed effects meta-analysis, the pooled hazard ratio per 10 cm of height was 0.84; 95\% confidence interval, 0.73-0.98; P~= .03. The association of increased height with lower risk of SCD was slightly attenuated after inclusion of risk factors associated with height, such as hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy. The association appeared stronger among men than women in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS: In two population-based prospective cohorts of different ages, greater height was associated with lower risk of SCD.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Atherosclerosis, Body Height, Coronary Disease, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Population Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors}, issn = {1873-2585}, doi = {10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.11.008}, author = {Rosenberg, Michael A and Lopez, Faye L and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Adabag, Selcuk and Chen, Lin Y and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Kronmal, Richard A and Siscovick, David S and Alonso, Alvaro and Buxton, Alfred and Folsom, Aaron R and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6572, title = {Incidence of and risk factors for sick sinus~syndrome in the general population.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {64}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Aug 12}, pages = {531-8}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence of and risk factors for sick sinus syndrome (SSS), a common indication for pacemaker implantation.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to describe the epidemiology of SSS.

METHODS: This analysis included 20,572 participants (mean baseline age 59 years, 43\% male) in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), who at baseline were free of prevalent atrial fibrillation and pacemaker therapy, had a heart rate of >= 50 beats/min unless using beta blockers, and were identified as of white or black race. Incident SSS cases were identified by hospital discharge International Classification of Disease-revision 9-Clinical Modification code 427.81 and validated by medical record review.

RESULTS: During an average 17 years of follow-up, 291 incident SSS cases were identified (unadjusted rate 0.8 per 1,000 person-years). Incidence increased with age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.73; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.05 per 5-year increment), and blacks had a 41\% lower risk of SSS than whites (HR: 0.59; 95\% CI: 0.37 to 0.98). Incident SSS was associated with greater baseline body mass index, height, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and cystatin C, with longer QRS interval, with lower heart rate, and with prevalent hypertension, right bundle branch block, and cardiovascular disease. We project that the annual number of new SSS cases in the United States will increase from 78,000 in 2012 to 172,000 in 2060.

CONCLUSIONS: Blacks have a lower risk of SSS than whites, and several cardiovascular risk factors were associated with incident SSS. With the aging of the population, the number of Americans with SSS will increase dramatically over the next 50 years.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Population Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sick Sinus Syndrome}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2014.03.056}, author = {Jensen, Paul N and Gronroos, Noelle N and Chen, Lin Y and Folsom, Aaron R and deFilippi, Chris and Heckbert, Susan R and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {9001, title = {Epigenetic Age and the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {144}, year = {2021}, month = {2021 12 14}, pages = {1899-1911}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The most prominent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) is chronological age; however, underlying mechanisms are unexplained. Algorithms using epigenetic modifications to the human genome effectively predict chronological age. Chronological and epigenetic predicted ages may diverge in a phenomenon referred to as epigenetic age acceleration (EAA), which may reflect accelerated biological aging. We sought to evaluate for associations between epigenetic age measures and incident AF.

METHODS: Measures for 4 epigenetic clocks (Horvath, Hannum, DNA methylation [DNAm] PhenoAge, and DNAm GrimAge) and an epigenetic predictor of PAI-1 (plasminogen activator inhibitor-1) levels (ie, DNAm PAI-1) were determined for study participants from 3 population-based cohort studies. Cox models evaluated for associations with incident AF and results were combined via random-effects meta-analyses. Two-sample summary-level Mendelian randomization analyses evaluated for associations between genetic instruments of the EAA measures and AF.

RESULTS: Among 5600 participants (mean age, 65.5 years; female, 60.1\%; Black, 50.7\%), there were 905 incident AF cases during a mean follow-up of 12.9 years. Unadjusted analyses revealed all 4 epigenetic clocks and the DNAm PAI-1 predictor were associated with statistically significant higher hazards of incident AF, though the magnitudes of their point estimates were smaller relative to the associations observed for chronological age. The pooled EAA estimates for each epigenetic measure, with the exception of Horvath EAA, were associated with incident AF in models adjusted for chronological age, race, sex, and smoking variables. After multivariable adjustment for additional known AF risk factors that could also potentially function as mediators, pooled EAA measures for 2 clocks remained statistically significant. Five-year increases in EAA measures for DNAm GrimAge and DNAm PhenoAge were associated with 19\% (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.19 [95\% CI, 1.09-1.31]; <0.01) and 15\% (adjusted HR, 1.15 [95\% CI, 1.05-1.25]; <0.01) higher hazards of incident AF, respectively. Mendelian randomization analyses for the 5 EAA measures did not reveal statistically significant associations with AF.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified adjusted associations between EAA measures and incident AF, suggesting that biological aging plays an important role independent of chronological age, though a potential underlying causal relationship remains unclear. These aging processes may be modifiable and not constrained by the immutable factor of time.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aging, Atrial Fibrillation, DNA Methylation, Epigenesis, Genetic, Epigenomics, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Mendelian Randomization Analysis, Middle Aged, Models, Cardiovascular, Models, Genetic}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.056456}, author = {Roberts, Jason D and Vittinghoff, Eric and Lu, Ake T and Alonso, Alvaro and Wang, Biqi and Sitlani, Colleen M and Mohammadi-Shemirani, Pedrum and Fornage, Myriam and Kornej, Jelena and Brody, Jennifer A and Arking, Dan E and Lin, Honghuang and Heckbert, Susan R and Prokic, Ivana and Ghanbari, Mohsen and Skanes, Allan C and Bartz, Traci M and Perez, Marco V and Taylor, Kent D and Lubitz, Steven A and Ellinor, Patrick T and Lunetta, Kathryn L and Pankow, James S and Par{\'e}, Guillaume and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Benjamin, Emelia J and Horvath, Steve and Marcus, Gregory M} }