@article {1138, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is a major predictor of the development of atrial fibrillation: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {120}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Nov 03}, pages = {1768-74}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac rhythm abnormality, is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenditures. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure, AF, and mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The relation between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and AF was studied in 5445 Cardiovascular Health Study participants with the use of relative risk regression for predicting prevalent AF and Cox proportional hazards for predicting incident AF. NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with prevalent AF, with an unadjusted prevalence ratio of 128 for the highest quintile (95\% confidence interval, 17.9 to 913.3; P<0.001) and adjusted prevalence ratio of 147 for the highest quintile (95\% confidence interval, 20.4 to 1064.3; P<0.001) compared with the lowest. After a median follow-up of 10 years (maximum of 16 years), there were 1126 cases of incident AF (a rate of 2.2 per 100 person-years). NT-proBNP was highly predictive of incident AF, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 5.2 (95\% confidence interval, 4.3 to 6.4; P<0.001) for the development of AF for the highest quintile compared with the lowest; for the same contrast, NT-proBNP remained the strongest predictor of incident AF after adjustment for an extensive number of covariates, including age, sex, medication use, blood pressure, echocardiographic parameters, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.0 (95\% confidence interval, 3.2 to 5.0; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based population of older adults, NT-proBNP was a remarkable predictor of incident AF, independent of any other previously described risk factor.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Humans, Immunoassay, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.873265}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Ellinor, Patrick T and Heckbert, Susan R and Christenson, Robert H and DeFilippi, Christopher and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {1242, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with sudden cardiac death risk: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {8}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Feb}, pages = {228-33}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD), the cause of 250,000-450,000 deaths per year, is a major public health problem. The majority of those affected do not have a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure and mortality as well as with sudden death in women.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and SCD in the Cardiovascular Health Study population.

METHODS: The risk of SCD associated with baseline NT-proBNP was examined in 5,447 participants. Covariate-adjusted Cox model regressions were used to estimate the hazard ratios of developing SCD as a function of baseline NT-proBNP.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.5 years (maximum 16), there were 289 cases of SCD. Higher NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with SCD, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 4.2 (95\% confidence interval [2.9, 6.1]; P <.001) in the highest quintile compared with in the lowest. NT-proBNP remained associated with SCD even after adjustment for numerous clinical characteristics and risk factors (age, sex, race, and other associated conditions), with an adjusted hazard ratio for the fifth versus the first quintile of 2.5 (95\% confidence interval [1.6, 3.8]; P <.001).

CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP provides information regarding the risk of SCD in a community-based population of older adults, beyond other traditional risk factors. This biomarker may ultimately prove useful in targeting the population at risk with aggressive medical management of comorbid conditions.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution, Time Factors, United States}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2010.10.038}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Sotoodehnia, Nona and DeFilippi, Christopher and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {6071, title = {Cardiomyocyte injury assessed by a highly sensitive troponin assay and sudden cardiac death in the community: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {62}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Dec 03}, pages = {2112-20}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the association between markers of cardiomyocyte injury in ambulatory subjects and sudden cardiac death (SCD).

BACKGROUND: The pathophysiology of SCD is complex but is believed to be associated with an abnormal cardiac substrate in most cases. The association between biomarkers of cardiomyocyte injury in ambulatory subjects and SCD has not been investigated.

METHODS: Levels of cardiac troponin T, a biomarker of cardiomyocyte injury, were measured by a highly sensitive assay (hsTnT) in 4,431 ambulatory participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a longitudinal community-based prospective cohort study. Serial measures were obtained in 3,089 subjects. All deaths, including SCD, were adjudicated by a central events committee.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 13.1 years, 246 participants had SCD. Baseline levels of hsTnT were significantly associated with SCD (hazard ratio [HR] for +1 log(hsTnT): 2.04, 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78 to 2.34]. This association persisted in covariate-adjusted Cox analyses accounting for baseline risk factors (HR: 1.30, 95\% CI: 1.05 to 1.62), as well as for incident heart failure and myocardial infarction (HR: 1.26, 95\% CI: 1.01 to 1.57). The population was also categorized into 3 groups based on baseline hsTnT levels and SCD risk [fully adjusted HR: 1.89 vs. 1.55 vs. 1 (reference group) for hsTnT >=12.10 vs. 5.01 to 12.09 vs. <= 5.00 pg/ml, respectively; p trend = 0.005]. On serial measurements, change in hsTnT levels was also associated with SCD risk (fully adjusted HR for +1 pg/ml per year increase from baseline: 1.03, 95\% CI: 1.01 to 1.06).

CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest an association between cardiomyocyte injury in ambulatory subjects and SCD risk beyond that of traditional risk factors.

}, keywords = {Aged, Ambulatory Care, Biomarkers, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Heart Arrest, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardium, Myocytes, Cardiac, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Troponin T}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2013.07.049}, author = {Hussein, Ayman A and Gottdiener, John S and Bartz, Traci M and Sotoodehnia, Nona and DeFilippi, Christopher and Dickfeld, Timm and Deo, Rajat and Siscovick, David and Stein, Phyllis K and Lloyd-Jones, Donald} } @article {5993, title = {Inflammation and sudden cardiac death in a community-based population of older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Oct}, pages = {1425-32}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is linked to adverse cardiovascular events, but its association with sudden cardiac death (SCD) has been controversial. Older subjects, who are at particular risk for SCD, were underrepresented in previous studies addressing this issue.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to study the association between inflammation and SCD in a community-based population of older adults.

METHODS: In the Cardiovascular Health Study, 5806 and 5382 participants had measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL6), respectively, and were followed for up to 17 years. SCD risk as a function of baseline IL-6 and CRP was assessed in the overall population and in a group of participants without known prevalent cardiac disease.

RESULTS: In univariate analyses, both IL-6 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.79 for 1+ log IL-6, 95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.50-2.13; 5th vs 1st quintile HR 3.36, 95\% CI 2.24-5.05) and CRP (HR 1.31 for 1+ log CRP, 95\% CI 1.18-1.45; 5th vs 1st quintile HR 2.00, 95\% CI 1.40-2.87) were associated with SCD risk. In covariate-adjusted analyses, accounting for baseline risk factors, incident myocardial infarction, and heart failure, the association with SCD risk persisted for IL-6 (HR 1.26 for 1+ log IL-6, 95\% CI 1.02-1.56; 5th vs 1st quintile HR 1.63, 95\% CI 1.03-2.56) but was significantly attenuated for CRP (HR 1.13 for 1+ log CRP, 95\% CI 1.00-1.28; 5th vs 1st quintile HR 1.34, 95\% CI 0.88-2.05). Similar findings were observed in participants without prevalent cardiac disease.

CONCLUSION: Greater burden of inflammation, assessed by IL-6 levels, is associated with SCD risk beyond traditional risk factors, incident myocardial infarction, and heart failure.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Inflammation, Interleukin-6, Male, Risk Factors}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2013.07.004}, author = {Hussein, Ayman A and Gottdiener, John S and Bartz, Traci M and Sotoodehnia, Nona and DeFilippi, Christopher and See, Vincent and Deo, Rajat and Siscovick, David and Stein, Phyllis K and Lloyd-Jones, Donald} } @article {6589, title = {Subclinical vascular disease burden and longer survival.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {62}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Sep}, pages = {1692-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To determine the contribution of gradations of subclinical vascular disease (SVD) to the likelihood of longer survival and to determine what allows some individuals with SVD to live longer.

DESIGN: Cohort study.

SETTING: Cardiovascular Health Study.

PARTICIPANTS: Individuals born between June 30, 1918, and June 30, 1921 (N~=~2,082; aged 70-75 at baseline (1992-93)).

MEASUREMENTS: A SVD index was scored as 0 for no abnormalities, 1 for mild abnormalities, and 2 for severe abnormalities on ankle-arm index, electrocardiogram, and common carotid intima-media thickness measured at baseline. Survival groups were categorized as 80 and younger, 81 to 84, 85 to 89, and 90 and older.

RESULTS: A 1-point lower SVD score was associated with 1.22 greater odds (95\% confidence interval~=~1.14-1.31) of longer survival, independent of potential confounders. This association was unchanged after adjustment for intermediate incident cardiovascular events. There was suggestion of an interaction between kidney function, smoking, and C-reactive protein and SVD; the association between SVD and longer survival appeared to be modestly greater in persons with poor kidney function, inflammation, or a history of smoking.

CONCLUSION: A lower burden of SVD is associated with longer survival, independent of intermediate cardiovascular events. Abstinence from smoking, better kidney function, and lower inflammation may attenuate the effects of higher SVD and promote longer survival.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, C-Reactive Protein, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Cohort Studies, Cystatin C, Depression, Diabetes Mellitus, Electrocardiography, Female, Humans, Inflammation, Kidney Diseases, Male, Smoking, Survival Analysis, United States, Vascular Diseases}, issn = {1532-5415}, doi = {10.1111/jgs.13018}, author = {Odden, Michelle C and Yee, Laura M and Arnold, Alice M and Sanders, Jason L and Hirsch, Calvin and DeFilippi, Christopher and Kizer, Jorge R and Inzitari, Marco and Newman, Anne B} } @article {6661, title = {NT-proBNP and troponin T and risk of rapid kidney function decline and incident CKD in elderly adults.}, journal = {Clin J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {10}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Feb 6}, pages = {205-14}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Elevations in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T are associated with poor cardiovascular outcomes. Whether elevations in these cardiac biomarkers are associated with decline in kidney function was evaluated.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, \& MEASUREMENTS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin T were measured at baseline in 3752 participants free of heart failure in the Cardiovascular Health Study. eGFR was determined from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation using serum cystatin C. Rapid decline in kidney function was defined as decline in serum cystatin C eGFR>=30\%, and incident CKD was defined as the onset of serum cystatin C eGFR<60 among those without CKD at baseline (n=2786). Cox regression models were used to examine the associations of each biomarker with kidney function decline adjusting for demographics, baseline serum cystatin C eGFR, diabetes, and other CKD risk factors.

RESULTS: In total, 503 participants had rapid decline in serum cystatin C eGFR over a mean follow-up time of 6.41 (1.81) years, and 685 participants developed incident CKD over a mean follow-up time of 6.41 (1.74) years. Participants in the highest quartile of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (>237 pg/ml) had an 67\% higher risk of rapid decline and 38\% higher adjusted risk of incident CKD compared with participants in the lowest quartile (adjusted hazard ratio for serum cystatin C eGFR rapid decline, 1.67; 95\% confidence interval, 1.25 to 2.23; hazard ratio for incident CKD, 1.38; 95\% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.76). Participants in the highest category of troponin T (>10.58 pg/ml) had 80\% greater risk of rapid decline compared with participants in the lowest category (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95\% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.40). The association of troponin T with incident CKD was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95\% confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.50).

CONCLUSIONS: Elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin T are associated with rapid decline of kidney function and incident CKD. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the mechanisms that may explain this association.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aging, Biomarkers, Cystatin C, Disease Progression, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Incidence, Kidney, Linear Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Troponin T, United States, Up-Regulation}, issn = {1555-905X}, doi = {10.2215/CJN.04910514}, author = {Bansal, Nisha and Katz, Ronit and Dalrymple, Lorien and de Boer, Ian and DeFilippi, Christopher and Kestenbaum, Bryan and Park, Meyeon and Sarnak, Mark and Seliger, Stephen and Shlipak, Michael} } @article {6735, title = {Older Adults, "Malignant" Left Ventricular Hypertrophy, and Associated Cardiac-Specific Biomarker Phenotypes to Identify the Differential Risk of New-Onset Reduced Versus Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure: CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {JACC Heart Fail}, volume = {3}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jun}, pages = {445-55}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study hypothesized that biomarkers of subclinical myocardial injury (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T [hs-cTnT]) and hemodynamic stress (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) would differentiate heart~failure (HF) risk among older adults with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH).

BACKGROUND: The natural history of LVH, an important risk factor for HF, is heterogeneous.

METHODS: NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were measured at baseline and after 2 to 3 years in older adults without prior HF or myocardial infarction in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study). LVH and left ventricular ejection fraction were determined by echocardiography. HF events were adjudicated over a median of 13.1 years and classified as preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF]). Adjusted risk of HF by LVH and biomarker tertiles, and by LVH and longitudinal increase in each biomarker was estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS: Prevalence of LVH was 12.5\% among 2,347 participants with complete measures. Adjusted risk of HF (N~=~643 events) was approximately 3.8-fold higher among participants with LVH and in the highest biomarker tertile, compared with those with low biomarker levels without LVH (NT-proBNP, hazard ratio [HR]: 3.78; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 2.78 to 5.15 and hs-cTnT, HR: 3.86; 95\% CI: 2.84 to 5.26). The adjusted risk of HFrEF was 7.8 times higher among those with the highest tertile of hs-cTnT and LVH (HR: 7.83; 95\% CI: 4.43 to 13.83). Those with LVH and longitudinal increases in hs-cTnT or NT-proBNP were approximately 3-fold more likely to develop HF, primarily HFrEF, compared with those without LVH and with stable biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS: The combination of LVH with greater hs-cTnT or NT-proBNP levels, and their longitudinal increase, identifies older adults at highest risk for symptomatic HF, especially HFrEF. These biomarkers may characterize sub-phenotypes in the transition from LVH to HF and suggest modifiable targets for prevention.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Echocardiography, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Phenotype, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Troponin T}, issn = {2213-1787}, doi = {10.1016/j.jchf.2014.12.018}, author = {Seliger, Stephen L and de Lemos, James and Neeland, Ian J and Christenson, Robert and Gottdiener, John and Drazner, Mark H and Berry, Jarett and Sorkin, John and DeFilippi, Christopher} } @article {6702, title = {Serial measures of cardiac troponin T levels by a highly sensitive assay and incident atrial fibrillation in a prospective cohort of ambulatory older adults.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {12}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 May}, pages = {879-85}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Various mechanisms in cardiac remodeling related to atrial fibrillation (AF) lead to elevated circulating cardiac troponin levels, but little is known about such elevations upstream to AF onset.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to study the association between circulating troponin levels as assessed by a highly sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) assay and incident atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS: In a large prospective cohort of ambulatory older adults [the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS)], hs-cTnT levels were measured in sera that were collected at enrollment from 4262 participants without AF (2871 with follow-up measurements). Incident AF was identified by electrocardiograms during CHS visits, hospital discharge diagnoses, and Medicare files, including outpatient and physician claims diagnoses.

RESULTS: Over median follow-up of 11.2 years (interquartile range 6.1-16.5), 1363 participants (32.0\%) developed AF. Higher baseline levels of hs-cTnT were associated with incident AF in covariate-adjusted analyses accounting for demographics, traditional risk factors, and incident heart failure in time-dependent analyzes (hazard ratio for 3rd tertile vs undetectable 1.75, 95\% confidence interval 1.48-2.08). This association was statistically significant in analyses that additionally adjusted for biomarkers of inflammation and hemodynamic strain (hazard ratio for 3rd tertile vs undetectable 1.38, 95\% confidence interval 1.16-1.65). Significant associations were also found when hs-cTnT levels were treated as a continuous variable and when examining change from baseline of hs-cTnT levels and incident AF.

CONCLUSION: The findings show a significant association of circulating troponin levels in ambulatory older adults with incident AF beyond that of traditional risk factors, incident heart failure, and biomarkers of inflammation and hemodynamic strain.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, Electrocardiography, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Outpatients, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Statistics as Topic, Troponin T, United States}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2015.01.020}, author = {Hussein, Ayman A and Bartz, Traci M and Gottdiener, John S and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Heckbert, Susan R and Lloyd-Jones, Donald and Kizer, Jorge R and Christenson, Robert and Wazni, Oussama and DeFilippi, Christopher} } @article {8095, title = {Galectin-3 and Soluble ST2 and Kidney Function Decline in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS).}, journal = {Am J Kidney Dis}, volume = {67}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 06}, pages = {994-6}, keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Creatinine, Cystatin C, Female, Galectin 3, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Interleukin-1 Receptor-Like 1 Protein, Logistic Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Prognosis, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic}, issn = {1523-6838}, doi = {10.1053/j.ajkd.2015.12.022}, author = {Bansal, Nisha and Katz, Ronit and Seliger, Stephen and DeFilippi, Christopher and Sarnak, Mark J and Delaney, Joseph A and Christenson, Robert and de Boer, Ian H and Kestenbaum, Bryan and Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne and Ix, Joachim H and Shlipak, Michael G} } @article {8567, title = {Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis.}, journal = {Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol}, volume = {4}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 10}, pages = {840-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment.

METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5\%, 5\% to <7{\textperiodcentered}5\%, and >=7{\textperiodcentered}5\%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1{\textperiodcentered}76 (95\% CI 1{\textperiodcentered}56-1{\textperiodcentered}98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2{\textperiodcentered}00 (1{\textperiodcentered}77-2{\textperiodcentered}26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0{\textperiodcentered}012 (0{\textperiodcentered}010-0{\textperiodcentered}014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0{\textperiodcentered}027 (0{\textperiodcentered}019-0{\textperiodcentered}036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0{\textperiodcentered}019 (0{\textperiodcentered}016-0{\textperiodcentered}022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0{\textperiodcentered}028 (0{\textperiodcentered}019-0{\textperiodcentered}038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention.

FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment}, issn = {2213-8595}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(16)30196-6}, author = {Willeit, Peter and Kaptoge, Stephen and Welsh, Paul and Butterworth, Adam and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Spackman, Sarah and Pennells, Lisa and Gao, Pei and Burgess, Stephen and Freitag, Daniel and Sweeting, Michael and Wood, Angela and Cook, Nancy and Judd, Suzanne and Trompet, Stella and Nambi, Vijay and Olsen, Michael and Everett, Brendan and Kee, Frank and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Salomaa, Veikko and Levy, Daniel and Kauhanen, Jussi and Laukkanen, Jari and Kavousi, Maryam and Ninomiya, Toshiharu and Casas, Juan-Pablo and Daniels, Lori and Lind, Lars and Kistorp, Caroline and Rosenberg, Jens and Mueller, Thomas and Rubattu, Speranza and Panagiotakos, Demosthenes and Franco, Oscar and de Lemos, James and Luchner, Andreas and Kizer, Jorge and Kiechl, Stefan and Salonen, Jukka and Goya Wannamethee, S and de Boer, Rudolf and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge and Andersson, Jonas and J{\o}rgensen, Torben and Melander, Olle and Ballantyne, Christie and DeFilippi, Christopher and Ridker, Paul and Cushman, Mary and Rosamond, Wayne and Thompson, Simon and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Sattar, Naveed and Danesh, John and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele} }