@article {1357, title = {Predicting late-life disability and death by the rate of decline in physical performance measures.}, journal = {Age Ageing}, volume = {41}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Mar}, pages = {155-61}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: the rate of performance decline may influence the risk of disability or death.

METHODS: for 4,182 Cardiovascular Health Study participants, we used multinomial Poisson log-linear models to assess the contribution of physical performance in 1998-99, and the rate of performance change between 1992-93 and 1998-99, to the risk of death or disability in 2005-06 in three domains: mobility, upper-extremity function (UEF) and activities of daily living (ADL). We evaluated performance in finger-tapping, grip strength, stride length, gait speed and chair stands separately and together for each outcome, adjusting for age, gender, race and years of disability in that outcome between 1992-93 and 1998-99.

RESULTS: participants{\textquoteright} age averaged 79.4 in 1998-99; 1,901 died over 7 years. Compared with the lowest change quintile in stride length, the highest quintile had a 1.32 relative risk (RR) of ADL disability (95\% CI: 1.16 -1.96) and a 1.27 RR of death (95\% CI: 1.07 -1.51). The highest change quintile for grip strength increased the risk of ADL disability by 35\% (95\% CI: 1.13 -1.61) and death by 31\% (95\% CI: 1.16 -1.49), compared with the lowest quintile. The annual change in stride length and grip strength also predicted disability in mobility and UEF.

CONCLUSION: performance trajectories independently predict death and disability.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Disability Evaluation, Disabled Persons, Female, Geriatric Assessment, Hand Strength, Health Surveys, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Mobility Limitation, Mortality, Motor Skills, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Survival Analysis, Time Factors, United States, Upper Extremity, Walking}, issn = {1468-2834}, doi = {10.1093/ageing/afr151}, author = {Hirsch, Calvin Hayes and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Robbins, John A and Patel, Kushang V and Newman, Anne B} } @article {6363, title = {Prognostic implications of microvascular and macrovascular abnormalities in older adults: cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci}, volume = {69}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Dec}, pages = {1495-502}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Microvascular and macrovascular abnormalities are frequently found on noninvasive tests performed in older adults. Their prognostic implications on disability and life expectancy have not been collectively assessed.

METHODS: This prospective study included 2,452 adults (mean age: 79.5 years) with available measures of microvascular (brain, retina, kidney) and macrovascular abnormalities (brain, carotid, coronary, peripheral artery) in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The burden of microvascular and macrovascular abnormalities was examined in relation to total, activity-of-daily-living disability-free, and severe disability-free life expectancies in the next 10 years (1999-2009).

RESULTS: At 75 years, individuals with low burden of both abnormalities lived, on average, 8.71 years (95\% confidence interval: 8.29, 9.12) of which 7.67 years (7.16, 8.17) were without disability. In comparison, individuals with high burden of both abnormalities had shortest total life expectancy (6.95 years [6.52, 7.37]; p < .001) and disability-free life expectancy (5.60 years [5.10, 6.11]; p < .001). Although total life expectancy was similarly reduced for those with high burden of either type of abnormalities (microvascular: 7.96 years [7.50, 8.42] vs macrovascular: 8.25 years [7.80, 8.70]; p = .10), microvascular abnormalities seemed to have larger impact than macrovascular abnormalities on disability-free life expectancy (6.45 years [5.90, 6.99] vs 6.96 years [6.43, 7.48]; p = .016). These results were consistent for severe disability-free life expectancy and in individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS: Considering both microvascular and macrovascular abnormalities from multiple noninvasive tests may provide additional prognostic information on how older adults spend their remaining life. Optimal clinical use of this information remains to be determined.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Ankle Brachial Index, Disability Evaluation, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Forecasting, Humans, Life Expectancy, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Microcirculation, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Vascular Malformations}, issn = {1758-535X}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glu074}, author = {Kim, Dae Hyun and Grodstein, Francine and Newman, Anne B and Chaves, Paulo H M and Odden, Michelle C and Klein, Ronald and Sarnak, Mark J and Patel, Kushang V and Lipsitz, Lewis A} }