@article {1194, title = {Validation of the health ABC heart failure model for incident heart failure risk prediction: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circ Heart Fail}, volume = {3}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Jul}, pages = {495-502}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The recently developed and internally validated Health ABC HF model uses 9 routinely available clinical variables to determine incident heart failure risk. In this study, we sought to externally validate the Health ABC HF model.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Observed 5-year incidence of heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for new-onset heart failure, was compared with 5-year risk estimates derived from the Health ABC HF model among participants without heart failure at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up, 400 of 5335 (7.5\%) participants developed heart failure over 5 years versus 364 (6.8\%) predicted by the Health ABC HF model (predicted-to-observed ratio, 0.90). Observed versus predicted 5-year heart failure probabilities were 3.2\% versus 2.8\%, 9.0\% versus 7.0\%, 15.9\% versus 13.7\%, and 24.6\% versus 30.8\% for the <5\%, 5\% to 10\%, 10\% to 20\%, and >20\% 5-year risk categories, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) was 14.72 (degrees of freedom, 10; P=0.14), and the C index was 0.74 (95\% CI, 0.72 to 0.76). Calibration and discrimination demonstrated adequate performance across sex and race overall; however, risk was underestimated in white men, especially in the 5\% to 10\% risk category. Model performance was optimal when participants with normal left ventricular function at baseline were assessed separately. Performance was consistent across age groups. Analyses with death as a competing risk yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS: The Health ABC HF model adequately predicted 5-year heart failure risk in a large community-based study, providing support for the external validity of the model. This tool may be used to identify individuals to whom to target heart failure prevention efforts.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Disease Progression, Echocardiography, Doppler, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Severity of Illness Index, Sex Distribution, Survival Analysis, United States}, issn = {1941-3297}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.109.904300}, author = {Kalogeropoulos, Andreas and Psaty, Bruce M and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki and Smith, Andrew L and Smith, Nicholas L and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Wilson, Peter W F and Newman, Anne B and Harris, Tamara B and Butler, Javed} } @article {7573, title = {Exome-wide association study of plasma lipids in >300,000 individuals.}, journal = {Nat Genet}, volume = {49}, year = {2017}, month = {2017 Dec}, pages = {1758-1766}, abstract = {

We screened variants on an exome-focused genotyping array in >300,000 participants (replication in >280,000 participants) and identified 444 independent variants in 250 loci significantly associated with total cholesterol (TC), high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and/or triglycerides (TG). At two loci (JAK2 and A1CF), experimental analysis in mice showed lipid changes consistent with the human data. We also found that: (i) beta-thalassemia trait carriers displayed lower TC and were protected from coronary artery disease (CAD); (ii) excluding the CETP locus, there was not a predictable relationship between plasma HDL-C and risk for age-related macular degeneration; (iii) only some mechanisms of lowering LDL-C appeared to increase risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D); and (iv) TG-lowering alleles involved in hepatic production of TG-rich lipoproteins (TM6SF2 and PNPLA3) tracked with higher liver fat, higher risk for T2D, and lower risk for CAD, whereas TG-lowering alleles involved in peripheral lipolysis (LPL and ANGPTL4) had no effect on liver fat but decreased risks for both T2D and CAD.

}, keywords = {Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Exome, Genetic Association Studies, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genetic Variation, Genotype, Humans, Lipids, Macular Degeneration, Phenotype, Risk Factors}, issn = {1546-1718}, doi = {10.1038/ng.3977}, author = {Liu, Dajiang J and Peloso, Gina M and Yu, Haojie and Butterworth, Adam S and Wang, Xiao and Mahajan, Anubha and Saleheen, Danish and Emdin, Connor and Alam, Dewan and Alves, Alexessander Couto and Amouyel, Philippe and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele and Arveiler, Dominique and Assimes, Themistocles L and Auer, Paul L and Baber, Usman and Ballantyne, Christie M and Bang, Lia E and Benn, Marianne and Bis, Joshua C and Boehnke, Michael and Boerwinkle, Eric and Bork-Jensen, Jette and Bottinger, Erwin P and Brandslund, Ivan and Brown, Morris and Busonero, Fabio and Caulfield, Mark J and Chambers, John C and Chasman, Daniel I and Chen, Y Eugene and Chen, Yii-Der Ida and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christensen, Cramer and Chu, Audrey Y and Connell, John M and Cucca, Francesco and Cupples, L Adrienne and Damrauer, Scott M and Davies, Gail and Deary, Ian J and Dedoussis, George and Denny, Joshua C and Dominiczak, Anna and Dub{\'e}, Marie-Pierre and Ebeling, Tapani and Eiriksdottir, Gudny and Esko, T{\~o}nu and Farmaki, Aliki-Eleni and Feitosa, Mary F and Ferrario, Marco and Ferrieres, Jean and Ford, Ian and Fornage, Myriam and Franks, Paul W and Frayling, Timothy M and Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth and Fritsche, Lars G and Frossard, Philippe and Fuster, Valentin and Ganesh, Santhi K and Gao, Wei and Garcia, Melissa E and Gieger, Christian and Giulianini, Franco and Goodarzi, Mark O and Grallert, Harald and Grarup, Niels and Groop, Leif and Grove, Megan L and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Hansen, Torben and Harris, Tamara B and Hayward, Caroline and Hirschhorn, Joel N and Holmen, Oddgeir L and Huffman, Jennifer and Huo, Yong and Hveem, Kristian and Jabeen, Sehrish and Jackson, Anne U and Jakobsdottir, Johanna and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and Jensen, Gorm B and J{\o}rgensen, Marit E and Jukema, J Wouter and Justesen, Johanne M and Kamstrup, Pia R and Kanoni, Stavroula and Karpe, Fredrik and Kee, Frank and Khera, Amit V and Klarin, Derek and Koistinen, Heikki A and Kooner, Jaspal S and Kooperberg, Charles and Kuulasmaa, Kari and Kuusisto, Johanna and Laakso, Markku and Lakka, Timo and Langenberg, Claudia and Langsted, Anne and Launer, Lenore J and Lauritzen, Torsten and Liewald, David C M and Lin, Li An and Linneberg, Allan and Loos, Ruth J F and Lu, Yingchang and Lu, Xiangfeng and M{\"a}gi, Reedik and M{\"a}larstig, Anders and Manichaikul, Ani and Manning, Alisa K and M{\"a}ntyselk{\"a}, Pekka and Marouli, Eirini and Masca, Nicholas G D and Maschio, Andrea and Meigs, James B and Melander, Olle and Metspalu, Andres and Morris, Andrew P and Morrison, Alanna C and Mulas, Antonella and M{\"u}ller-Nurasyid, Martina and Munroe, Patricia B and Neville, Matt J and Nielsen, Jonas B and Nielsen, Sune F and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge G and Ordovas, Jose M and Mehran, Roxana and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Christoper J and Orho-Melander, Marju and Molony, Cliona M and Muntendam, Pieter and Padmanabhan, Sandosh and Palmer, Colin N A and Pasko, Dorota and Patel, Aniruddh P and Pedersen, Oluf and Perola, Markus and Peters, Annette and Pisinger, Charlotta and Pistis, Giorgio and Polasek, Ozren and Poulter, Neil and Psaty, Bruce M and Rader, Daniel J and Rasheed, Asif and Rauramaa, Rainer and Reilly, Dermot F and Reiner, Alex P and Renstrom, Frida and Rich, Stephen S and Ridker, Paul M and Rioux, John D and Robertson, Neil R and Roden, Dan M and Rotter, Jerome I and Rudan, Igor and Salomaa, Veikko and Samani, Nilesh J and Sanna, Serena and Sattar, Naveed and Schmidt, Ellen M and Scott, Robert A and Sever, Peter and Sevilla, Raquel S and Shaffer, Christian M and Sim, Xueling and Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh and Small, Kerrin S and Smith, Albert V and Smith, Blair H and Somayajula, Sangeetha and Southam, Lorraine and Spector, Timothy D and Speliotes, Elizabeth K and Starr, John M and Stirrups, Kathleen E and Stitziel, Nathan and Strauch, Konstantin and Stringham, Heather M and Surendran, Praveen and Tada, Hayato and Tall, Alan R and Tang, Hua and Tardif, Jean-Claude and Taylor, Kent D and Trompet, Stella and Tsao, Philip S and Tuomilehto, Jaakko and Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne and van Zuydam, Natalie R and Varbo, Anette and Varga, Tibor V and Virtamo, Jarmo and Waldenberger, Melanie and Wang, Nan and Wareham, Nick J and Warren, Helen R and Weeke, Peter E and Weinstock, Joshua and Wessel, Jennifer and Wilson, James G and Wilson, Peter W F and Xu, Ming and Yaghootkar, Hanieh and Young, Robin and Zeggini, Eleftheria and Zhang, He and Zheng, Neil S and Zhang, Weihua and Zhang, Yan and Zhou, Wei and Zhou, Yanhua and Zoledziewska, Magdalena and Howson, Joanna M M and Danesh, John and McCarthy, Mark I and Cowan, Chad A and Abecasis, Goncalo and Deloukas, Panos and Musunuru, Kiran and Willer, Cristen J and Kathiresan, Sekar} } @article {9176, title = {Large-scale genome-wide association study of coronary artery disease in genetically diverse populations.}, journal = {Nat Med}, volume = {28}, year = {2022}, month = {2022 08}, pages = {1679-1692}, abstract = {

We report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of coronary artery disease (CAD) incorporating nearly a quarter of a million cases, in which existing studies are integrated with data from cohorts of white, Black and Hispanic individuals from the Million Veteran Program. We document near equivalent heritability of CAD across multiple ancestral groups, identify 95 novel loci, including nine on the X chromosome, detect eight loci of genome-wide significance in Black and Hispanic individuals, and demonstrate that two common haplotypes at the 9p21 locus are responsible for risk stratification in all populations except those of African origin, in which these haplotypes are virtually absent. Moreover, in the largest GWAS for angiographically derived coronary atherosclerosis performed to date, we find 15 loci of genome-wide significance that robustly overlap with established loci for clinical CAD. Phenome-wide association analyses of novel loci and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) augment signals related to insulin resistance, extend pleiotropic associations of these loci to include smoking and family history, and precisely document the markedly reduced transferability of existing PRSs to Black individuals. Downstream integrative analyses reinforce the critical roles of vascular endothelial, fibroblast, and smooth muscle cells in CAD susceptibility, but also point to a shared biology between atherosclerosis and oncogenesis. This study highlights the value of diverse populations in further characterizing the genetic architecture of CAD.

}, keywords = {Coronary Artery Disease, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genome-Wide Association Study, Humans, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Risk Factors}, issn = {1546-170X}, doi = {10.1038/s41591-022-01891-3}, author = {Tcheandjieu, Catherine and Zhu, Xiang and Hilliard, Austin T and Clarke, Shoa L and Napolioni, Valerio and Ma, Shining and Lee, Kyung Min and Fang, Huaying and Chen, Fei and Lu, Yingchang and Tsao, Noah L and Raghavan, Sridharan and Koyama, Satoshi and Gorman, Bryan R and Vujkovic, Marijana and Klarin, Derek and Levin, Michael G and Sinnott-Armstrong, Nasa and Wojcik, Genevieve L and Plomondon, Mary E and Maddox, Thomas M and Waldo, Stephen W and Bick, Alexander G and Pyarajan, Saiju and Huang, Jie and Song, Rebecca and Ho, Yuk-Lam and Buyske, Steven and Kooperberg, Charles and Haessler, Jeffrey and Loos, Ruth J F and Do, Ron and Verbanck, Marie and Chaudhary, Kumardeep and North, Kari E and Avery, Christy L and Graff, Mariaelisa and Haiman, Christopher A and Le Marchand, Lo{\"\i}c and Wilkens, Lynne R and Bis, Joshua C and Leonard, Hampton and Shen, Botong and Lange, Leslie A and Giri, Ayush and Dikilitas, Ozan and Kullo, Iftikhar J and Stanaway, Ian B and Jarvik, Gail P and Gordon, Adam S and Hebbring, Scott and Namjou, Bahram and Kaufman, Kenneth M and Ito, Kaoru and Ishigaki, Kazuyoshi and Kamatani, Yoichiro and Verma, Shefali S and Ritchie, Marylyn D and Kember, Rachel L and Baras, Aris and Lotta, Luca A and Kathiresan, Sekar and Hauser, Elizabeth R and Miller, Donald R and Lee, Jennifer S and Saleheen, Danish and Reaven, Peter D and Cho, Kelly and Gaziano, J Michael and Natarajan, Pradeep and Huffman, Jennifer E and Voight, Benjamin F and Rader, Daniel J and Chang, Kyong-Mi and Lynch, Julie A and Damrauer, Scott M and Wilson, Peter W F and Tang, Hua and Sun, Yan V and Tsao, Philip S and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Christopher J and Assimes, Themistocles L} } @article {9870, title = {The impact of common and rare genetic variants on bradyarrhythmia development.}, journal = {Nat Genet}, volume = {57}, year = {2025}, month = {2025 Jan}, pages = {53-64}, abstract = {

To broaden our understanding of bradyarrhythmias and conduction disease, we performed common variant genome-wide association analyses in up to 1.3 million individuals and rare variant burden testing in 460,000 individuals for sinus node dysfunction (SND), distal conduction disease (DCD) and pacemaker (PM) implantation. We identified 13, 31 and 21 common variant loci for SND, DCD and PM, respectively. Four well-known loci (SCN5A/SCN10A, CCDC141, TBX20 and CAMK2D) were shared for SND and DCD, while others were more specific for SND or DCD. SND and DCD showed a moderate genetic correlation (r = 0.63). Cardiomyocyte-expressed genes were enriched for contributions to DCD heritability. Rare-variant analyses implicated LMNA for all bradyarrhythmia phenotypes, SMAD6 and SCN5A for DCD and TTN, MYBPC3 and SCN5A for PM. These results show that variation in multiple genetic pathways (for example, ion channel function, cardiac developmental programs, sarcomeric structure and cellular homeostasis) appear critical to the development of bradyarrhythmias.

}, keywords = {Bradycardia, Cardiac Conduction System Disease, Female, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genetic Variation, Genome-Wide Association Study, Humans, Male, Pacemaker, Artificial, Phenotype, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Sick Sinus Syndrome}, issn = {1546-1718}, doi = {10.1038/s41588-024-01978-2}, author = {Weng, Lu-Chen and R{\"a}m{\"o}, Joel T and Jurgens, Sean J and Khurshid, Shaan and Chaffin, Mark and Hall, Amelia Weber and Morrill, Valerie N and Wang, Xin and Nauffal, Victor and Sun, Yan V and Beer, Dominik and Lee, Simon and Nadkarni, Girish N and Duong, ThuyVy and Wang, Biqi and Czuba, Tomasz and Austin, Thomas R and Yoneda, Zachary T and Friedman, Daniel J and Clayton, Anne and Hyman, Matthew C and Judy, Renae L and Skanes, Allan C and Orland, Kate M and Treu, Timothy M and Oetjens, Matthew T and Alonso, Alvaro and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Lin, Honghuang and Lunetta, Kathryn L and van der Pals, Jesper and Issa, Tariq Z and Nafissi, Navid A and May, Heidi T and Leong-Sit, Peter and Roselli, Carolina and Choi, Seung Hoan and Khan, Habib R and Knight, Stacey and Karlsson Linn{\'e}r, Richard and Bezzina, Connie R and Ripatti, Samuli and Heckbert, Susan R and Gaziano, J Michael and Loos, Ruth J F and Psaty, Bruce M and Smith, J Gustav and Benjamin, Emelia J and Arking, Dan E and Rader, Daniel J and Shah, Svati H and Roden, Dan M and Damrauer, Scott M and Eckhardt, Lee L and Roberts, Jason D and Cutler, Michael J and Shoemaker, M Benjamin and Haggerty, Christopher M and Cho, Kelly and Palotie, Aarno and Wilson, Peter W F and Ellinor, Patrick T and Lubitz, Steven A} }