@article {6559, title = {Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {311}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Mar 26}, pages = {1225-33}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5\%), intermediate (5\% to <7.5\%), and high (>= 7.5\%) risk.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95\% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.

}, keywords = {Aged, C-Reactive Protein, Cholesterol, HDL, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Glycated Hemoglobin A, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Stroke}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.1873}, author = {Di Angelantonio, Emanuele and Gao, Pei and Khan, Hassan and Butterworth, Adam S and Wormser, David and Kaptoge, Stephen and Kondapally Seshasai, Sreenivasa Rao and Thompson, Alex and Sarwar, Nadeem and Willeit, Peter and Ridker, Paul M and Barr, Elizabeth L M and Khaw, Kay-Tee and Psaty, Bruce M and Brenner, Hermann and Balkau, Beverley and Dekker, Jacqueline M and Lawlor, Debbie A and Daimon, Makoto and Willeit, Johann and Nj{\o}lstad, Inger and Nissinen, Aulikki and Brunner, Eric J and Kuller, Lewis H and Price, Jackie F and Sundstr{\"o}m, Johan and Knuiman, Matthew W and Feskens, Edith J M and Verschuren, W M M and Wald, Nicholas and Bakker, Stephan J L and Whincup, Peter H and Ford, Ian and Goldbourt, Uri and G{\'o}mez-de-la-C{\'a}mara, Agust{\'\i}n and Gallacher, John and Simons, Leon A and Rosengren, Annika and Sutherland, Susan E and Bj{\"o}rkelund, Cecilia and Blazer, Dan G and Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia and Onat, Altan and Mar{\'\i}n Iba{\~n}ez, Alejandro and Casiglia, Edoardo and Jukema, J Wouter and Simpson, Lara M and Giampaoli, Simona and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge G and Selmer, Randi and Wennberg, Patrik and Kauhanen, Jussi and Salonen, Jukka T and Dankner, Rachel and Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth and Kavousi, Maryam and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Evans, Denis and Wallace, Robert B and Cushman, Mary and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Umans, Jason G and Kiyohara, Yutaka and Nakagawa, Hidaeki and Sato, Shinichi and Gillum, Richard F and Folsom, Aaron R and van der Schouw, Yvonne T and Moons, Karel G and Griffin, Simon J and Sattar, Naveed and Wareham, Nicholas J and Selvin, Elizabeth and Thompson, Simon G and Danesh, John} } @article {6811, title = {Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {314}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jul 7}, pages = {52-60}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.

EXPOSURES: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.

RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95\% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95\% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95\% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95\% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95\% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95\% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95\% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Comorbidity, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Myocardial Infarction, Risk Factors, Stroke}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2015.7008}, author = {Di Angelantonio, Emanuele and Kaptoge, Stephen and Wormser, David and Willeit, Peter and Butterworth, Adam S and Bansal, Narinder and O{\textquoteright}Keeffe, Linda M and Gao, Pei and Wood, Angela M and Burgess, Stephen and Freitag, Daniel F and Pennells, Lisa and Peters, Sanne A and Hart, Carole L and H{\r a}heim, Lise Lund and Gillum, Richard F and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge G and Psaty, Bruce M and Yeap, Bu B and Knuiman, Matthew W and Nietert, Paul J and Kauhanen, Jussi and Salonen, Jukka T and Kuller, Lewis H and Simons, Leon A and van der Schouw, Yvonne T and Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth and Selmer, Randi and Crespo, Carlos J and Rodriguez, Beatriz and Verschuren, W M Monique and Salomaa, Veikko and Sv{\"a}rdsudd, Kurt and van der Harst, Pim and Bj{\"o}rkelund, Cecilia and Wilhelmsen, Lars and Wallace, Robert B and Brenner, Hermann and Amouyel, Philippe and Barr, Elizabeth L M and Iso, Hiroyasu and Onat, Altan and Trevisan, Maurizio and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Cooper, Cyrus and Kavousi, Maryam and Welin, Lennart and Roussel, Ronan and Hu, Frank B and Sato, Shinichi and Davidson, Karina W and Howard, Barbara V and Leening, Maarten J G and Leening, Maarten and Rosengren, Annika and D{\"o}rr, Marcus and Deeg, Dorly J H and Kiechl, Stefan and Stehouwer, Coen D A and Nissinen, Aulikki and Giampaoli, Simona and Donfrancesco, Chiara and Kromhout, Daan and Price, Jackie F and Peters, Annette and Meade, Tom W and Casiglia, Edoardo and Lawlor, Debbie A and Gallacher, John and Nagel, Dorothea and Franco, Oscar H and Assmann, Gerd and Dagenais, Gilles R and Jukema, J Wouter and Sundstr{\"o}m, Johan and Woodward, Mark and Brunner, Eric J and Khaw, Kay-Tee and Wareham, Nicholas J and Whitsel, Eric A and Nj{\o}lstad, Inger and Hedblad, Bo and Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia and Engstr{\"o}m, Gunnar and Rosamond, Wayne D and Selvin, Elizabeth and Sattar, Naveed and Thompson, Simon G and Danesh, John} }