@article {1246, title = {Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident hip fracture in older adults.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {170}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Nov 22}, pages = {1876-83}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction is common in older adults and affects bone metabolism, but its effects on fracture risk have not been reported. We sought to determine prospectively whether older men and women with subclinical hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism have an increased risk of hip fracture.

METHODS: Prospective cohort of 3567 US community-dwelling adults, 65 years or older, with biochemically defined subclinical thyroid dysfunction or euthyroidism was enrolled from June 10, 1989, through May 30, 1990, and followed up through 2004. Main outcome measures included incidence and hazard ratios (HRs), with 95\% confidence intervals (CIs), of confirmed incident hip fractures for groups with subclinical hypothyroidism, subclinical hyperthyroidism, and euthyroidism as defined at baseline.

RESULTS: During 39 952 person-years (median follow-up, 13 years), hip fracture incidence (per 1000 men-years) was 13.65 in men with subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 29) and 10.27 in men with subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 184), both greater than 5.0 in men with euthyroidism (n = 1159). Men with subclinical hypothyroidism had a multivariable-adjusted HR of 2.31 (95\% CI, 1.25-4.27); those with subclinical hyperthyroidism, 3.27 (0.99-11.30). After excluding those with baseline use of thyroid-altering medications, men with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism had a higher HR of 4.91 (95\% CI, 1.13-21.27), as did men with endogenous subclinical hypothyroidism (2.45, 1.27-4.73). Hip fracture incidence (per 1000 women-years) was 8.93 in women with subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 359) and 10.90 in women with subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 142) compared with 10.18 in women with euthyroidism (n = 1694). No clear association between subclinical dysfunction and fracture was observed in women.

CONCLUSIONS: Older men with subclinical hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism are at increased risk for hip fracture. Whether treatment of the subclinical syndrome reduces this risk is unknown.

}, keywords = {Aged, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hip Fractures, Humans, Hyperthyroidism, Hypothyroidism, Incidence, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sex Distribution, Thyrotropin, United States}, issn = {1538-3679}, doi = {10.1001/archinternmed.2010.424}, author = {Lee, Jennifer S and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Fink, Howard A and Vu, Joseph and Carbone, Laura and Chen, Zhao and Cauley, Jane and Bauer, Doug C and Cappola, Anne R and Robbins, John} } @article {6193, title = {Epidemiology and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors for pneumonia in community-dwelling older Americans: analysis of three cohorts.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {144}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Sep}, pages = {1008-1017}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals.

METHODS: This was a cohort study in three population-based cohorts of community-dwelling individuals. A derivation cohort (n = 16,260) was used to determine incidence and survival and develop a risk prediction model. The prediction model was validated in two cohorts (n = 8,495). The primary outcome was 10-year risk of pneumonia hospitalization.

RESULTS: The crude and age-adjusted incidences of pneumonia were 6.71 and 9.43 cases/1,000 person-years (10-year risk was 6.15\%). The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 16.5\% and 31.5\%. Although age was the most important risk factor (range of crude incidence rates, 1.69-39.13 cases/1,000 person-years for each 5-year increment from 45-85 years), 38\% of pneumonia cases occurred in adults \< 65 years of age. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 12.5\% and 25.7\% in those \< 65 years of age. Although most comorbidities were associated with higher risk of pneumonia, reduced lung function was the most important risk factor (relative risk = 6.61 for severe reduction based on FEV1 by spirometry). A clinical risk prediction model based on age, smoking, and lung function predicted 10-year risk (area under curve [AUC] = 0.77 and Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] C statistic = 0.12). Model discrimination and calibration were similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC = 0.77; HL C statistic, 0.65) but lower in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.62; HL C statistic, 0.45). The model also calibrated well in blacks and younger adults. C-reactive protein and IL-6 were associated with higher pneumonia risk but did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonia hospitalization is common and associated with high mortality, even in younger healthy adults. Long-term risk of pneumonia can be predicted in community-dwelling adults with a simple clinical risk prediction model.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Community-Acquired Infections, Comorbidity, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hospitalization, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Survival Rate, Time Factors}, issn = {1931-3543}, doi = {10.1378/chest.12-2818}, author = {Yende, Sachin and Alvarez, Karina and Loehr, Laura and Folsom, Aaron R and Newman, Anne B and Weissfeld, Lisa A and Wunderink, Richard G and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Mukamal, Kenneth J and London, Stephanie J and Harris, Tamara B and Bauer, Doug C and Angus, Derek C} }