@article {1247, title = {Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {170}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Nov 22}, pages = {1909-17}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.

METHODS: We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2\%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.

RESULTS: We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95\% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95\% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0\% (AGES) and 63.6\% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64\% of risk.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Algorithms, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Pressure, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Electrocardiography, Europe, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Systole, United States}, issn = {1538-3679}, doi = {10.1001/archinternmed.2010.434}, author = {Schnabel, Renate B and Aspelund, Thor and Li, Guo and Sullivan, Lisa M and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Harris, Tamara B and Pencina, Michael J and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Levy, Daniel and Kannel, William B and Wang, Thomas J and Kronmal, Richard A and Wolf, Philip A and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Psaty, Bruce M and Benjamin, Emelia J and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R} } @article {6603, title = {Gene expression in thiazide diuretic or statin users in relation to incident type 2 diabetes.}, journal = {Int J Mol Epidemiol Genet}, volume = {5}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, pages = {22-30}, abstract = {Thiazide diuretics and statins are used to improve cardiovascular outcomes, but may also cause type 2 diabetes (T2DM), although mechanisms are unknown. Gene expression studies may facilitate understanding of these associations. Participants from ongoing population-based studies were sampled for these longitudinal studies of peripheral blood microarray gene expression, and followed to incident diabetes. All sampled subjects were statin or thiazide users. Those who developed diabetes during follow-up comprised cases (44 thiazide users; 19 statin users), and were matched to drug-using controls who did not develop diabetes on several factors. Supervised normalization, surrogate variable analyses removed technical bias and confounding. Differentially-expressed genes were those with a false discovery rate Q-value<0.05. Among thiazide users, diabetes cases had significantly different expression of CCL14 (down-regulated 6\%, Q-value=0.0257), compared with controls. Among statin users, diabetes cases had marginal but insignificantly different expression of ZNF532 (up-regulated 15\%, Q-value=0.0584), CXORF21 (up-regulated 11\%, Q-value=0.0584), and ZNHIT3 (up-regulated 19\%, Q-value=0.0959), compared with controls. These genes comprise potential targets for future expression or mechanistic research on medication-related diabetes development.}, issn = {1948-1756}, author = {Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Heckbert, Susan R and Smith, Nicholas L and McKnight, Barbara and Rotter, Jerome I and Chen, Yd Ida and Psaty, Bruce M and Enquobahrie, Daniel A} } @article {6561, title = {Variation in resting heart rate over 4 years and the risks of myocardial infarction and death among older adults.}, journal = {Heart}, volume = {101}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jan}, pages = {132-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: Resting heart rate (RHR) is an established predictor of myocardial infarction (MI) and mortality, but the relationship between variation in RHR over a period of several years and health outcomes is unclear. We evaluated the relationship between long-term variation in RHR and the risks of incident MI and mortality among older adults.

METHODS: 1991 subjects without cardiovascular disease from the Cardiovascular Health Study were included. RHR was taken from resting ECGs at the first five annual study visits. RHR mean, trend and variation were estimated with linear regression. Subjects were followed for incident MI and death until December 2010. HRs for RHR mean, trend and variation are reported for differences of 10 bpm, 2 bpm/year and 2 bpm, respectively.

RESULTS: 262 subjects had an incident MI event (13\%) and 1326 died (67\%) during 12 years of median follow-up. In primary analyses adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, RHR mean (HR 1.12; 95\% CI 1.05 to 1.20) and variation (HR 1.08; 95\% CI 1.03 to 1.13) were associated with the risk of death while trend was not. None of the RHR variables were significantly associated with the risk of incident MI events; however, CIs were wide and the MI associations with RHR variables were not significantly different from the mortality associations. Adjusting for additional variables did not affect estimates, and there were no significant interactions with sex.

CONCLUSIONS: Variation in RHR over a period of several years represents a potential predictor of long-term mortality among older persons free of cardiovascular disease.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Rate, Humans, Incidence, Linear Models, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Outcome Assessment (Health Care), Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Rest, Risk Factors, Time, Washington}, issn = {1468-201X}, doi = {10.1136/heartjnl-2014-306046}, author = {Floyd, James S and Sitlani, Colleen M and Wiggins, Kerri L and Wallace, Erin and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Abbasi, Siddique A and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Siscovick, David S and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Heckbert, Susan R and McKnight, Barbara and Rice, Kenneth M and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {8286, title = {Cholesterol Variability and Cranial Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {51}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 Jan}, pages = {69-74}, abstract = {

Background and Purpose- Serum cholesterol variability, independent of mean, has been associated with stroke, white matter hyperintensities on cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and other cardiovascular events. We sought to assess the relationship between total serum cholesterol (TC) variability and cranial MRI findings of subclinical or covert vascular brain injury in a longitudinal, population-based cohort study of older adults. Methods- In the Cardiovascular Health Study, we assessed associations between intraindividual TC mean, trend, and variability over ≈5 years with covert brain infarction (CBI) and white matter grade (WMG) on cranial MRI. Mean TC was calculated for each study participant from 4 annual TC measurements between 2 MRI scans. TC trend was calculated as the slope of the linear regression of the TC measurements, and TC variability was calculated as the SD of the residuals from the linear regression. We evaluated the association of intraindividual TC variability with incident CBI and worsening WMG between 2 MRI scans in primary analyses and with prevalent CBI number and WMG on the follow-up MRI scan in secondary analyses. Results- Among participants who were eligible for the study and free of clinical stroke before the follow-up MRI, 17.9\% of 1098 had incident CBI, and 27.8\% of 1351 had worsening WMG on the follow-up MRI. Mean, trend, and variability of TC were not associated with these outcomes. TC variability, independent of mean and trend, was significantly associated with the number of CBI (β=0.009 [95\% CI, 0.003-0.016] =0.004; N=1604) and was associated with WMG (β, 0.009 [95\% CI, -0.0002 to 0.019] =0.055; N=1602) on the follow-up MRI. Conclusions- Among older adults, TC variability was not associated with incident CBI or worsening WMG but was associated with the number of prevalent CBI on cranial MRI. More work is needed to validate and to clarify the mechanisms underlying such associations.

}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.119.026698}, author = {Kalani, Rizwan and Bartz, Traci M and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Elkind, Mitchell S V and Psaty, Bruce M and Leung, Lester Y and Rice, Kenneth and Tirschwell, David and Longstreth, W T} }