@article {1357, title = {Predicting late-life disability and death by the rate of decline in physical performance measures.}, journal = {Age Ageing}, volume = {41}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Mar}, pages = {155-61}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: the rate of performance decline may influence the risk of disability or death.

METHODS: for 4,182 Cardiovascular Health Study participants, we used multinomial Poisson log-linear models to assess the contribution of physical performance in 1998-99, and the rate of performance change between 1992-93 and 1998-99, to the risk of death or disability in 2005-06 in three domains: mobility, upper-extremity function (UEF) and activities of daily living (ADL). We evaluated performance in finger-tapping, grip strength, stride length, gait speed and chair stands separately and together for each outcome, adjusting for age, gender, race and years of disability in that outcome between 1992-93 and 1998-99.

RESULTS: participants{\textquoteright} age averaged 79.4 in 1998-99; 1,901 died over 7 years. Compared with the lowest change quintile in stride length, the highest quintile had a 1.32 relative risk (RR) of ADL disability (95\% CI: 1.16 -1.96) and a 1.27 RR of death (95\% CI: 1.07 -1.51). The highest change quintile for grip strength increased the risk of ADL disability by 35\% (95\% CI: 1.13 -1.61) and death by 31\% (95\% CI: 1.16 -1.49), compared with the lowest quintile. The annual change in stride length and grip strength also predicted disability in mobility and UEF.

CONCLUSION: performance trajectories independently predict death and disability.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Disability Evaluation, Disabled Persons, Female, Geriatric Assessment, Hand Strength, Health Surveys, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Mobility Limitation, Mortality, Motor Skills, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Survival Analysis, Time Factors, United States, Upper Extremity, Walking}, issn = {1468-2834}, doi = {10.1093/ageing/afr151}, author = {Hirsch, Calvin Hayes and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Robbins, John A and Patel, Kushang V and Newman, Anne B} }