@article {897, title = {The Cardiovascular Health Study: design and rationale.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {1}, year = {1991}, month = {1991 Feb}, pages = {263-76}, abstract = {

The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) is a population-based, longitudinal study of coronary heart disease and stroke in adults aged 65 years and older. The main objective of the study is to identify factors related to the onset and course of coronary heart disease and stroke. CHS is designed to determine the importance of conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in older adults, and to identify new risk factors in this age group, especially those that may be protective and modifiable. The study design called for enrollment of 1250 men and women in each of four communities: Forsyth County, North Carolina; Sacramento County, California; Washington County, Maryland; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Eligible participants were sampled from Medicare eligibility lists in each area. Extensive physical and laboratory evaluations were performed at baseline to identify the presence and severity of CVD risk factors such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and glucose intolerance; subclinical disease such as carotid artery atherosclerosis, left ventricular enlargement, and transient ischemia; and clinically overt CVD. These examinations in CHS permit evaluation of CVD risk factors in older adults, particularly in groups previously under-represented in epidemiologic studies, such as women and the very old. The first of two examination cycles began in June 1989. A second comprehensive examination will be repeated three years later. Periodic interim contacts are scheduled to ascertain and verify the incidence of CVD events, the frequency of recurrent events, and the sequellae of CVD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Coronary Disease, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Health Status, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Physical Examination, Research Design, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1047-2797}, doi = {10.1016/1047-2797(91)90005-w}, author = {Fried, L P and Borhani, N O and Enright, P and Furberg, C D and Gardin, J M and Kronmal, R A and Kuller, L H and Manolio, T A and Mittelmark, M B and Newman, A} } @article {749, title = {Distribution and correlates of sonographically detected carotid artery disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The CHS Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {23}, year = {1992}, month = {1992 Dec}, pages = {1752-60}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This article describes the prevalence of extracranial carotid atherosclerosis assessed by ultrasonography, its association with risk factors, and its relation to symptomatic coronary disease and stroke in men and women aged > or = 65 years.

METHODS: Maximum percent stenosis, maximum common carotid artery wall thickness, and maximum internal carotid artery wall thickness were assessed using duplex ultrasound in 5,201 men and women aged > or = 65 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a study of the risk factors and natural history of cardiovascular disease in the elderly. Existing coronary disease and stroke were assessed by physical examination and participant history.

RESULTS: Detectable carotid stenosis was present in 75\% of men and 62\% of women, although the prevalence of > or = 50\% stenosis was low, 7\% in men and 5\% in women. Maximum stenosis and maximum wall thickness measurements increased with age and were uniformly greater at all ages in men than in women (p < 0.00001). Established risk factors for atherosclerosis (hypertension, smoking, diabetes) and indications of vascular disease (left ventricular hypertrophy, major electrocardiographic abnormality, bruits, and history of heart disease or stroke) related to all three carotid artery measures in the elderly. Of the three ultrasound measures, the best correlate for a history of coronary disease was maximum internal carotid artery wall thickness. For stroke the best correlate was common carotid artery wall thickness. Multiple logistic regression models of prevalent coronary heart disease and stroke that included the ultrasound findings indicated, after adjustment for age and sex, that maximum internal wall thickness and maximum common carotid wall thickness were significant correlates of both. Maximum stenosis did not add significantly to the correlation.

CONCLUSIONS: In the elderly the incidence of carotid atherosclerosis was high, although the frequency of severe disease was low. The prevalence and severity of carotid atherosclerosis continued to increase with age even in the late decades of life, and more disease was found in men than in women at all ages. Known risk factors for atherosclerosis continued to relate to carotid abnormalities in the later decades of life, both in symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects.

}, keywords = {Aged, Arteriosclerosis, Cardiomegaly, Carotid Artery Diseases, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Coronary Disease, Female, Humans, Male, Medical Records, Prevalence, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0039-2499}, doi = {10.1161/01.str.23.12.1752}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Polak, J F and Kronmal, R A and Kittner, S J and Bond, M G and Wolfson, S K and Bommer, W and Price, T R and Gardin, J M and Savage, P J} } @article {1447, title = {Properties of the random zero sphygmomanometer.}, journal = {Hypertension}, volume = {21}, year = {1993}, month = {1993 May}, pages = {632-7}, abstract = {

The random zero sphygmomanometer is widely used in studies involving blood pressure measurement because it is believed to eliminate digit preference and reduce measurement error. We performed blood pressure measurements sequentially using random zero and standard sphygmomanometers in random order in 1,356 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Despite adherence to the manufacturer{\textquoteright}s instructions, we observed a substantially nonuniform distribution of zero levels generated by the random zero sphygmomanometer and a disturbing correlation between the zero level and blood pressures taken with the standard sphygmomanometer. With the random zero device, the pooled estimated slopes for the regression of standard systolic and diastolic pressures on the zero level were -0.71 and -0.17, respectively (both p < 0.0001). The only plausible explanation for this relation between the random zero device and the standard device is that by some unknown mechanism the subject{\textquoteright}s blood pressure is influencing the zero level. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures measured with the random zero device were, respectively, 1.65 and 1.84 mm Hg lower (both p < 0.0001) than standard blood pressures. Digit preference was detectable in the uncorrected blood pressure and zero level measured with the random zero device but was eliminated after calculation of the corrected blood pressure. For most epidemiological studies, the random zero sphygmomanometer offers no significant advantage over the standard sphygmomanometer. It may still be useful in those epidemiological studies and clinical trials where blinding is important.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Blood Pressure Determination, Cohort Studies, Diastole, Humans, Regression Analysis, Systole}, issn = {0194-911X}, author = {Kronmal, R A and Rutan, G H and Manolio, T A and Borhani, N O} } @article {1448, title = {Smoking and lung function in elderly men and women. The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {269}, year = {1993}, month = {1993 Jun 02}, pages = {2741-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationships between cigarette smoking and pulmonary function in elderly men and women.

DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a prospective, population-based study of risk factors, preclinical, and overt cardiovascular and pulmonary disease.

SETTING: Defined communities in Forsyth County, North Carolina; Pittsburgh, Pa; Sacramento County, California; and Washington County, Maryland.

POPULATION: A total of 5201 noninstitutionalized men and women 65 years of age and older.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pulmonary function; means of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity and prevalence of low FEV1 levels.

RESULTS: Prevalence of cigarette smoking was 10\% to 20\% and higher in women than men and in blacks than whites. Forced vital capacity and FEV1 levels were related positively to height and white race and negatively to age and waist girth. Age- and height-adjusted FEV1 means were 23\% and 18\% lower in male and female current smokers, respectively, than in never smokers but not reduced in never smokers currently living with a smoker. Smokers who quit before age 40 years had FEV1 levels similar to never smokers, but FEV1 levels were lower by 7\% and 14\% in smokers who quit at ages 40 to 60 years and older than 60 years, respectively. Lung function was related inversely to pack-years of cigarette use. Prevalence rates of impaired lung function were highest in current smokers and lowest in never smokers. Regression coefficients for the smoking variables were smaller in persons without cardiovascular or respiratory conditions than in the total cohort.

CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette smoking is associated with reduced pulmonary function in elderly men and women. However, smokers who quit, even after age 60 years, have better pulmonary function than continuing smokers.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Anthropometry, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cross-Sectional Studies, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Humans, Lung Diseases, Male, Prevalence, Prospective Studies, Reference Values, Respiratory Function Tests, Risk Factors, Smoking, United States, Vital Capacity}, issn = {0098-7484}, author = {Higgins, M W and Enright, P L and Kronmal, R A and Schenker, M B and Anton-Culver, H and Lyles, M} } @article {1440, title = {Sonographic evaluation of carotid artery atherosclerosis in the elderly: relationship of disease severity to stroke and transient ischemic attack.}, journal = {Radiology}, volume = {188}, year = {1993}, month = {1993 Aug}, pages = {363-70}, abstract = {

Doppler and real-time ultrasound (US) were performed to evaluate the extent of atherosclerotic changes in the carotid artery and to assess their relationship to prevalent cerebrovascular disease. Real-time US scans and Doppler measurements of the carotid arteries were analyzed in 5,201 subjects aged 65 years or older. Severity of atherosclerotic lesions was associated with increased frequencies of hyperechoic, irregular, and heterogeneous textured lesions (P < .0001). The severity of internal carotid artery stenosis was associated with thickening of the intima-media layer of the common carotid artery wall (r = .37, P < .0001). A history of stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) was more likely when hyperechoic, heterogeneous, and irregular lesions were seen in the carotid artery. Internal carotid artery stenosis correlated better with prevalent stroke and TIA than did sonographic descriptions of plaque texture. However, the prevalence of hyperechoic, heterogeneous, and irregular lesions increased as the degree of internal carotid stenosis increased. On real-time images alone, the average of the internal carotid artery maximal wall thickness is the sonographic measure of atherosclerosis that enables the best prediction of prevalent stroke and TIA.

}, keywords = {Aged, Arteriosclerosis, Carotid Artery Diseases, Carotid Artery, Internal, Carotid Stenosis, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Female, Humans, Ischemic Attack, Transient, Male, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0033-8419}, doi = {10.1148/radiology.188.2.8327679}, author = {Polak, J F and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Kronmal, R A and Wolfson, S K and Bond, M G and Tracy, R P and Gardin, J M and Kittner, S J and Price, T R and Savage, P J} } @article {1444, title = {Spirometry reference values for women and men 65 to 85 years of age. Cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am Rev Respir Dis}, volume = {147}, year = {1993}, month = {1993 Jan}, pages = {125-33}, abstract = {

Pulmonary function was assessed by spirometry in 5,201 ambulatory elderly participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study, sampled from four communities. A stringent quality assurance program exceeded American Thoracic Society (ATS) recommendations for spirometry. Less than 6\% of the participants were unable to perform three acceptable spirometry maneuvers. A "healthy" subgroup of 777 women and men 65 to 85 yr of age was identified by excluding smokers and those with lung disease and other factors determined to independently, significantly, and negatively influence the FEV1. Results from black participants were examined separately. Reference equations and normal ranges for FEV1, FVC, and the FEV1/FVC ratio were determined from the healthy group. The results demonstrate differences in predicted values as great as 20\% (0.5 to 1 L) for elderly patients when compared with the spirometry reference equations that are most commonly used in the United States.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Humans, Male, Reference Values, Smoking, Spirometry, Vital Capacity}, issn = {0003-0805}, doi = {10.1164/ajrccm/147.1.125}, author = {Enright, P L and Kronmal, R A and Higgins, M and Schenker, M and Haponik, E F} } @article {1437, title = {Correlates of blood pressure in community-dwelling older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study. Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Hypertension}, volume = {23}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Jan}, pages = {59-67}, abstract = {

Although elevated blood pressure is an important predictor of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the elderly, little information exists on the distribution and risk factor correlates of blood pressure in this group. As part of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort study of 5201 men and women aged 65 to 101 years, we investigated correlates of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Multiple regression analyses were conducted for all participants and a subgroup of 2482 without coronary heart disease and not on antihypertensive therapy (the "healthier" subgroup). In the total group, independent predictors of diastolic blood pressure included heart rate, aortic root dimension, creatinine, hematocrit, alcohol use, and black race (positive associations) and internal carotid artery wall thickness, mitral early/late peak flow velocity, white blood cell count, cigarette smoking, and age (negative associations). Positive predictors of systolic blood pressure included mitral late peak flow velocity, left ventricular mass, common carotid artery wall thickness, serum albumin, factor VII, diabetes, alcohol use, and age; negative predictors were coronary heart disease, uric acid, height, and smoking. In the healthier subgroup, positive predictors of diastolic blood pressure included heart rate, hematocrit, serum albumin, creatinine, and body weight, whereas mitral early/late peak flow velocity, serum potassium, smoking, and age inversely related to diastolic pressure. For the same group, common carotid artery wall thickness, left ventricular mass, serum albumin, factor VII, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and age were directly related to systolic blood pressure, whereas serum potassium was inversely related. Both systolic and diastolic pressures varied considerably by geographic site.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Regression Analysis, United States}, issn = {0194-911X}, author = {Tell, G S and Rutan, G H and Kronmal, R A and Bild, D E and Polak, J F and Wong, N D and Borhani, N O} } @article {1438, title = {Magnetic resonance abnormalities and cardiovascular disease in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {25}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Feb}, pages = {318-27}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cerebral magnetic resonance imaging often detects abnormalities whose significance is unknown. The prevalence and correlates of findings such as ventricular enlargement, sulcal widening, and increased white matter signal intensity were examined in 303 men and women aged 65 to 95 years participating in a multicenter study of cardiovascular disease.

METHODS: Cerebral magnetic resonance imaging was performed and interpreted according to a standard protocol, and findings were correlated with measures of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors.

RESULTS: Measures of cerebral atrophy increased with age and were greater in men than in women (each P < .01). Ventricular enlargement and sulcal widening were associated with prior stroke, hypertension, diabetes, and white race (each P < .03). Extent of white matter hyperintensity was associated with age, prior stroke, hypertension, and use of diuretics (each P < .004). On multivariate analysis, age, male gender, white race, and prior stroke retained strong associations with increased ventricular and sulcal scores. After adjustment for age, prior stroke, and other risk factors, white matter hyperintensity was associated with atherosclerosis as measured by increased internal carotid artery thickness on ultrasound.

CONCLUSIONS: Cerebral atrophy and white matter hyperintensity are common in the elderly and are associated with age, prior stroke, and known cardiovascular risk factors. Though these findings have been suggested to represent normal aging, their wide variability and associations with cardiovascular disease argue against their inevitability with advancing age and support the need to identify modifiable risk factors for these abnormalities.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Analysis of Variance, Atrophy, Brain, Cerebral Ventricles, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Sex Factors}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Manolio, T A and Kronmal, R A and Burke, G L and Poirier, V and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Gardin, J M and Fried, L P and Steinberg, E P and Bryan, R N} } @article {1420, title = {A method for using MR to evaluate the effects of cardiovascular disease on the brain: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {AJNR Am J Neuroradiol}, volume = {15}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Oct}, pages = {1625-33}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: To do a pilot study for the Cardiovascular Health Study (a population-based, longitudinal study of coronary heart disease and stroke in adults 65 years of age and older designed to identify risk factors related to cerebrovascular disease, particularly stroke): (a) to determine the feasibility of adding brain MR to the full-scale study; (b) to evaluate the reliability of standardized MR image interpretation in a multicenter study; and (c) to compare the prevalence of stroke determined by MR with that by clinical history.

METHODS: Protocol-defined MR studies were performed in 100 subjects with clinical histories of stroke and 203 subjects without reported histories of stroke. MR scans were independently evaluated by two trained neuroradiologists for the presence of small (< or = 3 mm) and large (> 3 mm) "infarctlike" lesions. The sizes of the cerebral sulci and lateral ventricles and the extent of white matter disease were graded on a scale of 0 to 9.

RESULTS: Eighty percent of the Cardiovascular Health Study participants who were invited to undergo MR studies agreed to do so; 95\% of those agreeing to the procedure successfully completed the exams. Intrareader and interreader reliability of infarctlike lesion identification was high for large lesions (kappa, 0.71 and 0.78, respectively) but not for small lesions (kappa, 0.71 and 0.32, respectively). Relaxed intrareader and interreader kappa scores for sulcal and ventricular sizes and extent of white matter disease were greater than 0.8 MR evidence of infarctlike lesions was present in 77\% of the participants with histories of stroke but was also present in 23\% of the participants without clinical histories of stroke. Seventy-nine percent of the infarctlike lesions were larger than 3 mm.

CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study indicates that a large, prospective, epidemiologic study of elderly subjects using MR scans of the brain for identification of cerebrovascular disease is feasible and that the interpretative results are reproducible, and suggests that MR evidence of stroke is more prevalent than reported clinical history of stroke.

}, keywords = {Aged, Brain, Cerebral Infarction, Cerebral Ventricles, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Cross-Sectional Studies, Diagnosis, Differential, Feasibility Studies, Female, Humans, Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Mass Screening, Observer Variation, Pilot Projects, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0195-6108}, author = {Bryan, R N and Manolio, T A and Schertz, L D and Jungreis, C and Poirier, V C and Elster, A D and Kronmal, R A} } @article {1428, title = {Prevalence and correlates of respiratory symptoms and disease in the elderly. Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {106}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Sep}, pages = {827-34}, abstract = {

Spirometry was performed by 5,201 elderly participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study during their baseline examination and a subset of the ATS/DLD-78 respiratory questionnaire was administered by trained interviewers. In never smokers (46 percent of the cohort), the overall prevalence of chronic cough was 9 percent, chronic phlegm was 13 percent, attacks of wheezing with dyspnea were 8 percent, and grade 3 dyspnea on exertion was 10 percent. The prevalence of lung disease in current smokers (12 percent of the cohort) was 8/7 percent (men/women) with chronic bronchitis and 14/5 percent with emphysema. Overall, 6 percent reported asthma (a physician-confirmed history) and 12 percent reported hay fever. Using a logistic regression model, attacks of wheezing with dyspnea were strongly associated with a lower FEV1, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and a large waist size (in participants without a diagnosis of asthma, chronic bronchitis, or emphysema). Undiagnosed airways obstruction was twice as likely in women and those with lower income, and was associated with current and former smoking, pack-years of smoking, and chronic cough. Dyspnea on exertion (DOE) was three times or more likely if a participant reported heart failure, coronary heart disease, or emphysema; and much more likely if their FEV1 or FVC was substantially reduced. Dyspnea on exertion was also positively associated with older age, chronic bronchitis or asthma, a larger waist or hip size, pack-years of smoking, and less education. We conclude that DOE and attacks of wheezing with dyspnea are commonly associated with cardiovascular disease and a low FEV1 in those over 65 years and that airways obstruction frequently remains undiagnosed in the elderly.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, California, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Lung Diseases, Male, Maryland, Multivariate Analysis, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Prevalence, Prognosis, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Spirometry, Surveys and Questionnaires}, issn = {0012-3692}, author = {Enright, P L and Kronmal, R A and Higgins, M W and Schenker, M B and Haponik, E F} } @article {1439, title = {Respiratory muscle strength in the elderly. Correlates and reference values. Cardiovascular Health Study Research Group.}, journal = {Am J Respir Crit Care Med}, volume = {149}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Feb}, pages = {430-8}, abstract = {

Maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) was assessed in 4,443 ambulatory participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study, 65 yr of age and older, sampled from four communities. Maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) was also measured in 790 participants from a single clinic. Positive predictors of MIP included male sex, FVC, handgrip strength, and higher levels of lean body mass (or low bioelectric resistance). Negative predictors were age, current smoking, self-reported fair to poor general health, and waist size. Both participant and technician learning effects were noted, but there was no independent effect of race, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or diabetes. A healthy subgroup was identified by excluding current smokers, those with fair to poor general health, or an FEV1 less than 65\% of predicted. Mean values determined from the healthy group were 57/116 cm H2O (MIP/MEP) for women, and 83/174 for men. Lower limits of the normal range (fifth percentiles) were 45 to 60\% of the mean predicted values. The reference equations derived from this group of healthy 65 to 85-yr-olds may be used by pulmonary function laboratories and respiratory therapists who evaluate the respiratory muscle strength of elderly patients.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Body Constitution, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Humans, Male, Prospective Studies, Reference Values, Respiratory Function Tests, Respiratory Muscles, Risk Factors, Sex Characteristics, Smoking}, issn = {1073-449X}, doi = {10.1164/ajrccm.149.2.8306041}, author = {Enright, P L and Kronmal, R A and Manolio, T A and Schenker, M B and Hyatt, R E} } @article {1419, title = {Reduced vital capacity in elderly persons with hypertension, coronary heart disease, or left ventricular hypertrophy. The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {107}, year = {1995}, month = {1995 Jan}, pages = {28-35}, abstract = {

The Cardiovascular Health Study provided the opportunity to determine the association of subclinical and clinical cardiovascular disease with pulmonary function in a population sample of elderly adults. Included were 2,955 women and 2,246 men over age 64 years who were recruited for this observational study from four communities and completed extensive examinations that included spirometry, echocardiograms, and blood pressure. Current smokers, past smokers with >20 pack-years of smoking, and persons with a history of asthma, chronic bronchitis, or emphysema were excluded from this analysis, leaving 2,784 (55\%) of the cohort. Systolic hypertension or coronary artery disease was associated with 40- to 100-mL decrements in FEV1, and 50- to 150-mL decrements in FVC, while a history of congestive heart failure was associated with 200 to 300 mL lower FEV1 and FVC values (p < 0.0001), after correcting for age, height, and waist size. Higher left ventricular (LV) mass was also significantly associated with a decrease in FEV1 and FVC in multivariate models. This relationship was strongest with the end-diastolic LV posterior wall thickness component of LV mass. In summary, FEV1 and FVC are reduced in elderly persons with hypertension, ischemic heart disease, higher disease, higher LV mass, and congestive heart failure, though the magnitude of these associations is relatively small unless heart failure supervenes. Substantial decrements in percent predicted FEV1 and FVC should not be attributed to the presence of uncomplicated ischemic heart disease or hypertension alone.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Coronary Disease, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Humans, Hypertension, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Middle Aged, Ventricular Function, Left, Vital Capacity}, issn = {0012-3692}, author = {Enright, P L and Kronmal, R A and Smith, V E and Gardin, J M and Schenker, M B and Manolio, T A} } @article {1454, title = {Carotid artery measures are strongly associated with left ventricular mass in older adults (a report from the Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Am J Cardiol}, volume = {77}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Mar 15}, pages = {628-33}, abstract = {

Associations of carotid artery diameter and intimal-medial thickness by ultrasound with echocardiographic left ventricular (LV) structure were examined in 3,409 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based study of risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke in men and women aged > or = 65 years. At baseline, sector-guided M-mode echocardiography and B-mode ultrasound were used to evaluate the left ventricle and carotid arteries, respectively. Common carotid artery diameter and intimal-medial thickness were significantly related to LV mass in correlational analysis (r=0.40 and 0.20, respectively, p<0.01), and each was independently associated with LV mass after adjustment for age, gender, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, prior coronary heart disease, electrocardiographic abnormalities, high-density lipoprotein, and factor VII. We speculate that changes in the arterial wall affect impedance to LV ejection leading to increases in LV mass. Further follow-up of this cohort is in progress and will help to determine whether such carotid artery measures could, by exacerbating LV hypertrophy, constitute another important risk factor for adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Carotid Arteries, Cohort Studies, Female, Heart Ventricles, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0002-9149}, author = {Kronmal, R A and Smith, V E and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Polak, J F and Gardin, J M and Manolio, T A} } @article {1466, title = {Compensatory increase in common carotid artery diameter. Relation to blood pressure and artery intima-media thickness in older adults. Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {27}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Nov}, pages = {2012-5}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Common carotid artery (CCA) diameter is thought to increase as a consequence of hypertension and may increase as the thickness of the arterial wall increases. The purpose of this study was to determine CCA dimensions and correlate them with clinical features.

METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional, community-based study of adults 65 years of age and older, measuring inner and outer diameter of the CCA in vivo with carotid sonography. Findings were correlated against risk factors for atherosclerosis, CCA intima-media thickness (IMT), and echocardiographically determined left ventricular (LV) mass.

RESULTS: Independent variables showing strong positive associations with outer and inner CCA diameter included age, male sex, height, weight, and systolic blood pressure. As an independent variable, LV mass (r = .40 and r = .37, respectively; P < .00001) had a strong positive relation to inner and outer CCA diameters. The relationship between diameter and IMT was different. In a model that controlled for age, sex, and estimated LV mass, an increase of 1 mm in CCA IMT corresponded to a 1.9 mm increase in the outer diameter of the artery (P < .00001) but was not significantly related to the inner diameter (slope = +0.07 mm; P = .26).

CONCLUSIONS: Increase in the outer diameter of the CCA is associated with subject size, sex, age, echocardiographically estimated LV mass, and CCA IMT. Increases in internal diameter of the CCA have similar relationships but are not related to IMT. This supports the hypothesis that the human CCA dilates as the thickness of the artery wall increases.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Carotid Artery, Common, Cross-Sectional Studies, Echocardiography, Female, Heart Ventricles, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Polak, J F and Kronmal, R A and Tell, G S and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Savage, P J and Gardin, J M and Rutan, G H and Borhani, N O} } @article {1465, title = {Current estrogen-progestin and estrogen replacement therapy in elderly women: association with carotid atherosclerosis. CHS Collaborative Research Group. Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {6}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Jul}, pages = {314-23}, abstract = {

The cardioprotective effects of combined estrogen/progestin replacement therapy have been questioned. Therefore, we have compared carotid arterial wall thickening and the prevalence of carotid stenosis in elderly women (> or = 65 years old) currently using replacement estrogen/progestins (E + P) with arterial pathology and its prevalence in women using unopposed estrogens (E). This cross-sectional study used baseline data from all 2962 women participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based study of coronary heart disease and stroke in elderly adults. Users of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were categorized as never (n = 1726), past (n = 787), current E (n = 280), or current E + P (n = 73). Maximal intimal-medial thicknesses of the internal and common carotid arteries and stenosis of the internal carotid arteries were measured by ultrasonography. Current E + P users resembled current E users in most respects, although some lifestyle factors were more favorable among E + P users. Current E + P use and current E use (as compared with no use) were associated with smaller internal carotid wall thicknesses (-0.22 mm; P = 0.003; and -0.09 mm; P = 0.05, respectively) and smaller common carotid wall thicknesses (-0.05 mm; P = 0.03; and -0.02 mm; P = 0.1, respectively) and lower odds ratios (OR) for carotid stenosis (> or = 1\% vs. 0\%); OR = 0.61; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 1.01; and OR = 0.91, 95\% CI: 0.67 to 1.24, respectively), after adjustment for current lifestyle and risk factors. When both groups of current HRT users were compared, there were no significant differences in carotid wall thicknesses or prevalence of carotid stenosis. For this sample of elderly women, both current E + P therapy and current E therapy were associated with decreased measures of carotid atherosclerosis. These measures did not differ significantly between the two groups of HRT users.

}, keywords = {Aged, Arteriosclerosis, Carotid Arteries, Carotid Stenosis, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Cross-Sectional Studies, Databases, Factual, Drug Therapy, Combination, Estrogen Replacement Therapy, Estrogens, Female, Health Status Indicators, Humans, Odds Ratio, Progestins, Reproductive History, Ultrasonography, United States, Women{\textquoteright}s Health}, issn = {1047-2797}, author = {Jonas, H A and Kronmal, R A and Psaty, B M and Manolio, T A and Meilahn, E N and Tell, G S and Tracy, R P and Robbins, J A and Anton-Culver, H} } @article {1463, title = {Short-term predictors of incident stroke in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {27}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Sep}, pages = {1479-86}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Risk factors for incident stroke have been examined in middle-aged persons, but less is known about stroke precursors in the elderly, who suffer the highest rates of stroke. Short-term risk factors for incident stroke were examined in a longitudinal, population-based study including extensive measures of subclinical disease.

METHODS: Prospective study of 5201 women and men aged 65 years and older was undertaken in the multicenter Cardiovascular Health Study.

RESULTS: During an average 3.31-year follow-up, 188 incident strokes occurred. Stroke incidence increased significantly with age and was similar in women and men. Factors associated with increased stroke risk in multivariate analysis included age, aspirin use, diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, higher systolic blood pressure, increased time needed to walk 15 ft. frequent falls, elevated creatinine level, abnormal left ventricular (LV) wall motion and increased LV mass on echocardiography, ultrasound-defined carotid stenosis, and atrial fibrillation. Increased LV mass and carotid stenosis were associated with twofold and threefold increases in incidences of stroke, respectively (P < .001). Aspirin users had a 52\% higher risk of stroke (relative risk, 1.52; 95\% confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.0; P < .007) after adjustment for other factors. This association was present only among aspirin users without prior coronary disease, atrial fibrillation, claudication, or transient ischemic attack, who had an 84\% higher risk (relative risk, 1.84; 95\% confidence interval, 1.2 to 2.8).

CONCLUSIONS: Short-term risk of stroke has a complex relationship with aspirin use and is strongly related to subclinical disease in this sample of older adults. These relationships should be considered in assessing stroke risk in the elderly, in whom recognized and subclinical cardiovascular disease is highly prevalent.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Cardiovascular Physiological Phenomena, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Female, Health Status, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Manolio, T A and Kronmal, R A and Burke, G L and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Price, T R} } @article {1453, title = {Thickening of the carotid wall. A marker for atherosclerosis in the elderly? Cardiovascular Health Study Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {27}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Feb}, pages = {224-31}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We investigated the relationships between prevalent coronary heart disease (CHD), clinically manifest atherosclerotic disease (ASD), and major established risk factors for atherosclerosis and intima-media thickness (IMT) in the common carotid arteries (CCA) and internal carotid arteries (ICA) separately and in combination in older adults. We wished to determine whether a noninvasive measurement can serve as an indicator of clinically manifest atherosclerotic disease and to determine which of the two variables, CCA IMT or ICA IMT, is a better correlate.

METHODS: IMT of the CCA and ICA was measured with duplex ultrasound in 5117 of 5201 individuals enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a study of the risk factors and the natural history of cardiovascular disease in adults aged 65 years or more. Histories of CHD, peripheral arterial disease, and cerebrovascular disease were obtained during baseline examination. Risk factors included cholesterol levels, cigarette smoking, elevated blood pressure, diabetes, age, and sex. Relationships between risk factors and IMT were studied by multiple regression analysis and canonical variate analysis. Prediction of prevalent CHD and ASD by IMT measurements in CCAs and ICAs were made by logistic regression, adjusting for age and sex.

RESULTS: IMT measurements of the CCAs and ICAs were greater in persons with CHD and ASD than those without, even after controlling for sex (P < .001). IMT measurements in the ICA were greater than those in the CCA. Risk factors for ASD accounted for 17\% and 18\% of the variability in IMT in the CCA and ICA, respectively. These same risk factors accounted for 25\% of the variability of a composite measurement consisting of the sum of the ICA IMT and CCA IMT. The ability to predict CHD and ASD was greater for ICA IMT (odds ratio [confidence interval]: 1.36 [1.31 to 1.41] and 1.35 [1.25 to 1.44], respectively) than for CCA IMT (1.09 [1.05 to 1.13] and 1.17 [1.09 to 1.25]).

CONCLUSIONS: Whereas CCA IMT is associated with major risk factors for atherosclerosis and existing CHD and ASD in older adults, this association is not as strong as that for ICA IMT. The combination of these measures relates more strongly to existing CHD and ASD and cerebrovascular disease risk factors than either taken alone.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Arteriosclerosis, Blood Pressure, Carotid Artery, Common, Carotid Artery, Internal, Cholesterol, HDL, Cholesterol, LDL, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Diabetic Angiopathies, Electrocardiography, Female, Humans, Male, Medical History Taking, Physical Examination, Prospective Studies, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Sex Characteristics, Smoking, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Polak, J F and Kronmal, R A and Savage, P J and Borhani, N O and Kittner, S J and Tracy, R and Gardin, J M and Price, T R and Furberg, C D} } @article {1488, title = {Incidence of and risk factors for atrial fibrillation in older adults.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {96}, year = {1997}, month = {1997 Oct 07}, pages = {2455-61}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) among older adults during 3 years of follow-up.

METHODS AND RESULTS: In this cohort study, 5201 adults > or = 65 years old were examined annually on four occasions between June 1989 and May 1993. At baseline, participants answered questionnaires and underwent a detailed examination that included carotid ultrasound, pulmonary function tests, ECG, and echocardiography. Subjects with a pacemaker or AF at baseline (n=357) were excluded. New cases of AF were identified from three sources: (1) annual self-reports, (2) annual ECGs, and (3) hospital discharge diagnoses. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to assess baseline risk factors as predictors of incident AF. Among 4844 participants, 304 developed a first episode of AF during an average follow-up of 3.28 years, for an incidence of 19.2 per 1000 person-years. The onset was strongly associated with age, male sex, and the presence of clinical cardiovascular disease. For men 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 years old, the incidences were 17.6 and 42.7, respectively, and for women, 10.1 and 21.6 events per 1000 person-years. In stepwise models, the use of diuretics, a history of valvular heart disease, coronary disease, advancing age, higher levels of systolic blood pressure, height, glucose, and left atrial size were all associated with an increased risk of AF. The use of beta-blockers and high levels of alcohol use, cholesterol, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were associated with a reduced risk of AF.

CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AF in older adults may be higher than estimated by previous population studies. Left atrial size appears to be an important risk factor, and the control of blood pressure and glucose may be important in preventing the development of AF.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Glucose, Blood Pressure, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hospital Records, Humans, Incidence, Male, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0009-7322}, author = {Psaty, B M and Manolio, T A and Kuller, L H and Kronmal, R A and Cushman, M and Fried, L P and White, R and Furberg, C D and Rautaharju, P M} } @article {1483, title = {Silent brain infarction on magnetic resonance imaging and neurological abnormalities in community-dwelling older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study. CHS Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {28}, year = {1997}, month = {1997 Jun}, pages = {1158-64}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Infarctlike lesions are frequently detected in symptomatic and asymptomatic older persons undergoing cerebral MRI, but their significance in older adults has not been examined. We determined the prevalence of MRI infarcts in a population-based sample of men and women aged > or = 65 years and related these findings to demographic, cognitive, and neurological status.

METHODS: MRI scanning was performed in 3660 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants after brief neurological examinations and tests of cognitive function. MRIs were read centrally for the presence of an infarct > or = 3 mm in diameter or smaller infarctlike lesions.

RESULTS: MRI infarcts were detected in 1131 of 3647 participants with readable infarct information (31\%) and in 961 of the subgroup of 3397 participants (28\%) without known prior stroke ("silent" MRI infarcts). Smaller infarctlike lesions were found in 196 of 2516 participants who had no MRI infarcts > or = 3 mm. MRI infarcts were more common in participants who were older, had prior stroke, impaired cognition, visual field deficits, slowed repetitive finger tapping (all P < .0001), weakness on toe and heel walking, and history of memory loss, coma, or migraine headaches. Multivariate analysis in those without prior stroke showed strong associations of silent MRI infarcts with older age, history of migraines, lower digit symbol scores, and more abnormalities on neurological examination.

CONCLUSIONS: MRI evidence of brain infarction is common in older men and women without a clinical history of stroke. Their strong associations with impaired cognition and neurological deficits suggest that they are neither silent nor innocuous.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cerebral Infarction, Cognition, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Neurologic Examination}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Price, T R and Manolio, T A and Kronmal, R A and Kittner, S J and Yue, N C and Robbins, J and Anton-Culver, H and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H} } @article {1489, title = {Use of calcium channel blockers and breast carcinoma risk in postmenopausal women.}, journal = {Cancer}, volume = {80}, year = {1997}, month = {1997 Oct 15}, pages = {1438-47}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The use of calcium channel blockers in an elderly population recently was reported to be associated with the incidence of cancer. The Cardiovascular Health Study, a multisite observational cohort study, provided the opportunity to investigate the epidemiologic association between the use of calcium channel blockers and breast carcinoma risk in 3198 women age > or = 65 years.

METHODS: Standard questionnaires and clinical procedures were administered at four study sites annually from 1989-1990 to 1993-1994. Drug usage was assessed by a medication inventory and hospitalizations for 75 incident invasive breast carcinoma cases were identified using International Classification of Diseases-9 Clinical Modification codes. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess associations between incident breast carcinoma and the use of specific antihypertensive medication including calcium channel blockers.

RESULTS: In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, an elevated risk of breast carcinoma was associated with use of calcium channel blockers (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.57; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-4.49). This association persisted when the comparison group was users of other antihypertensive medication. No associations between the use of other antihypertensive medication with incident breast carcinoma were found. Associations were enhanced by assessment of high dose at baseline (HR: 4.42; 95\% CI, 1.37-14.27) and when calcium channel blockers were combined with estrogen use (HR: 4.48; 95\% CI, 1.58-12.75). The association was found to be strongest for the use of estrogens with immediate release calcium channel blockers (HR: 8.48; 95\% CI, 2.99-24.08).

CONCLUSIONS: Although the number of cases was limited in this observational study, associations found between the use of calcium channel blockers and incident invasive breast carcinoma warrant further investigation. Site specific carcinomas should be included as an outcome of ongoing and planned long term clinical trials using calcium channel blockers.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Breast Neoplasms, Calcium Channel Blockers, Cohort Studies, Estrogens, Female, Humans, Postmenopause, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {0008-543X}, author = {Fitzpatrick, A L and Daling, J R and Furberg, C D and Kronmal, R A and Weissfeld, J L} } @article {1504, title = {Aspirin use and incident stroke in the cardiovascular health study. CHS Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {29}, year = {1998}, month = {1998 May}, pages = {887-94}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Randomized clinical trials testing aspirin in relatively low-risk, middle-aged people have consistently shown small increases in stroke associated with aspirin use. We analyzed the relationship between the regular use of aspirin and incident ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke among people aged 65 years or older participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

METHODS: We conducted a multivariate analysis of incident stroke rates in a prospectively assessed, observational cohort of 5011 elderly people followed for a mean of 4.2 years.

RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 72 years, and 58\% were women. Twenty-three percent used aspirin frequently, and 17\% used aspirin infrequently at study entry. Frequent aspirin use was associated with an increased rate of ischemic stroke compared with nonusers (relative risk= 1.6; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 2.2; P=0.001). After adjustment for other stroke risk factors, women who used aspirin frequently or infrequently at study entry had a 1.8-fold (95\% CI, 1.2 to 2.8) and 1.6-fold (95\% CI, 0.9 to 3.0) increased risk of ischemic stroke, respectively (P<0.01, test for trend), compared with nonusers. In men, aspirin use was not statistically significantly associated with stroke risk. Findings were similar when aspirin use in the years before the incident stroke was used in the modeling. Aspirin use at entry was also associated with a 4-fold (95\% CI, 1.6 to 10.0) increase in risk of hemorrhagic stroke for both infrequent and frequent users of aspirin (P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin use was associated with increased risks of ischemic stroke in women and hemorrhagic stroke overall in this elderly cohort, after adjustment for other stroke predictors. The possibility exists of confounding by reasons for aspirin use rather than cause and effect. Whether regular aspirin use increases stroke risk for elderly people without cardiovascular disease can only be determined by randomized clinical trials.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aspirin, Brain Ischemia, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cerebral Hemorrhage, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Cyclooxygenase Inhibitors, Dose-Response Relationship, Drug, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Kronmal, R A and Hart, R G and Manolio, T A and Talbert, R L and Beauchamp, N J and Newman, A} } @article {1518, title = {The effects of measurement error in response variables and tests of association of explanatory variables in change models.}, journal = {Stat Med}, volume = {17}, year = {1998}, month = {1998 Nov 30}, pages = {2597-606}, abstract = {

Biomedical studies often measure variables with error. Examples in the literature include investigation of the association between the change in some outcome variable (blood pressure, cholesterol level etc.) and a set of explanatory variables (age, smoking status etc.). Typically, one fits linear regression models to investigate such associations. With the outcome variable measured with error, a problem occurs when we include the baseline value of the outcome variable as a covariate. In such instances, one can find a relationship between the observed change in the outcome and the explanatory variables even when there is no association between these variables and the true change in the outcome variable. We present a simple method of adjusting for a common measurement error bias that tends to be overlooked in the modelling of associations with change. Additional information (for example, replicates, instrumental variables) is needed to estimate the variance of the measurement error to perform this bias correction.

}, keywords = {Bias, Linear Models}, issn = {0277-6715}, author = {Yanez, N D and Kronmal, R A and Shemanski, L R} } @article {1512, title = {High body fatness, but not low fat-free mass, predicts disability in older men and women: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Am J Clin Nutr}, volume = {68}, year = {1998}, month = {1998 Sep}, pages = {584-90}, abstract = {

Using data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, we studied the relation between body composition (fat mass and fat-free mass, assessed by bioelectrical impedance) and self-reported, mobility-related disability (difficulty walking or stair climbing) in 2714 women and 2095 men aged 65-100 y. In a cross-sectional analysis at baseline (1989-1990), disability was reported by 26.5\% of the women and 16.9\% of the men. A positive association was observed between fat mass and disability. The odds ratio for disability in the highest quintile of fat mass was 3.04 (95\% CI: 2.18, 4.25) for women and 2.77 (95\% CI: 1.82, 4.23) for men compared with those in the lowest quintile. Low fat-free mass was not associated with a higher prevalence of disability. In a longitudinal analysis among persons not reporting disability at baseline, 20.3\% of the women and 14.8\% of the men reported disability 3 y later. Fat mass at baseline was predictive of disability 3 y later, with odds ratios of 2.83 (95\% CI: 1.80, 4.46) for women and 1.72 (95\% CI: 1.03, 2.85) for men in the highest quintile of fat. The increased risk was not explained by age, physical activity, chronic disease, or other potential confounders. Low fat-free mass was not predictive of disability. The results showed that high body fatness is an independent predictor of mobility-related disability in older men and women. These findings suggest that high body fatness in old age should be avoided to decrease the risk of disability.

}, keywords = {Adipose Tissue, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Body Composition, Cross-Sectional Studies, Disability Evaluation, Female, Geriatric Assessment, Health Surveys, Humans, Male, Obesity, Predictive Value of Tests, Walking}, issn = {0002-9165}, doi = {10.1093/ajcn/68.3.584}, author = {Visser, M and Langlois, J and Guralnik, J M and Cauley, J A and Kronmal, R A and Robbins, J and Williamson, J D and Harris, T B} } @article {1498, title = {Risk factors for 5-year mortality in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {279}, year = {1998}, month = {1998 Feb 25}, pages = {585-92}, abstract = {

CONTEXT: Multiple factors contribute to mortality in older adults, but the extent to which subclinical disease and other factors contribute independently to mortality risk is not known.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the disease, functional, and personal characteristics that jointly predict mortality in community-dwelling men and women aged 65 years or older.

DESIGN: Prospective population-based cohort study with 5 years of follow-up and a validation cohort of African Americans with 4.25-year follow-up.

SETTING: Four US communities.

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5201 and 685 men and women aged 65 years or older in the original and African American cohorts, respectively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Five-year mortality.

RESULTS: In the main cohort, 646 deaths (12\%) occurred within 5 years. Using Cox proportional hazards models, 20 characteristics (of 78 assessed) were each significantly (P<.05) and independently associated with mortality: increasing age, male sex, income less than $50000 per year, low weight, lack of moderate or vigorous exercise, smoking for more than 50 pack-years, high brachial (>169 mm Hg) and low tibial (< or = 127 mm Hg) systolic blood pressure, diuretic use by those without hypertension or congestive heart failure, elevated fasting glucose level (>7.2 mmol/L [130 mg/dL]), low albumin level (< or = 37 g/L), elevated creatinine level (> or = 106 micromol/L [1.2 mg/dL]), low forced vital capacity (< or = 2.06 mL), aortic stenosis (moderate or severe) and abnormal left ventricular ejection fraction (by echocardiography), major electrocardiographic abnormality, stenosis of internal carotid artery (by ultrasound), congestive heart failure, difficulty in any instrumental activity of daily living, and low cognitive function by Digit Symbol Substitution test score. Neither high-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with mortality. After adjustment for other factors, the association between age and mortality diminished, but the reduction in mortality with female sex persisted. Finally, the risk of mortality was validated in the second cohort; quintiles of risk ranged from 2\% to 39\% and 0\% to 26\% for the 2 cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS: Objective measures of subclinical disease and disease severity were independent and joint predictors of 5-year mortality in older adults, along with male sex, relative poverty, physical activity, smoking, indicators of frailty, and disability. Except for history of congestive heart failure, objective, quantitative measures of disease were better predictors of mortality than was clinical history of disease.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Health Surveys, Humans, Male, Mortality, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0098-7484}, author = {Fried, L P and Kronmal, R A and Newman, A B and Bild, D E and Mittelmark, M B and Polak, J F and Robbins, J A and Gardin, J M} } @article {1520, title = {Carotid-artery intima and media thickness as a risk factor for myocardial infarction and stroke in older adults. Cardiovascular Health Study Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {N Engl J Med}, volume = {340}, year = {1999}, month = {1999 Jan 07}, pages = {14-22}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The combined thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery is associated with the prevalence of cardiovascular disease. We studied the associations between the thickness of the carotid-artery intima and media and the incidence of new myocardial infarction or stroke in persons without clinical cardiovascular disease.

METHODS: Noninvasive measurements of the intima and media of the common and internal carotid artery were made with high-resolution ultrasonography in 5858 subjects 65 years of age or older. Cardiovascular events (new myocardial infarction or stroke) served as outcome variables in subjects without clinical cardiovascular disease (4476 subjects) over a median follow-up period of 6.2 years.

RESULTS: The incidence of cardiovascular events correlated with measurements of carotid-artery intima-media thickness. The relative risk of myocardial infarction or stroke increased with intima-media thickness (P<0.001). The relative risk of myocardial infarction or stroke (adjusted for age and sex) for the quintile with the highest thickness as compared with the lowest quintile was 3.87 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.72 to 5.51). The association between cardiovascular events and intima-media thickness remained significant after adjustment for traditional risk factors, showing increasing risks for each quintile of combined intima-media thickness, from the second quintile (relative risk, 1.54; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.28), to the third (relative risk, 1.84; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.26 to 2.67), fourth (relative risk, 2.01; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.38 to 2.91), and fifth (relative risk, 3.15; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.19 to 4.52). The results of separate analyses of myocardial infarction and stroke paralleled those for the combined end point.

CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery, as measured noninvasively by ultrasonography, are directly associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease.

}, keywords = {Aged, Carotid Arteries, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Disease-Free Survival, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0028-4793}, doi = {10.1056/NEJM199901073400103}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Polak, J F and Kronmal, R A and Manolio, T A and Burke, G L and Wolfson, S K} } @article {1521, title = {Stroke risk in an elderly population with atrial fibrillation.}, journal = {J Gen Intern Med}, volume = {14}, year = {1999}, month = {1999 Jan}, pages = {56-9}, abstract = {

Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased risk of stroke, but the absolute rate of stroke varies widely depending on coexistent vascular disease. We assessed the stroke rate and predictive value of two published schemes for stroke risk stratification in a population-derived cohort of 259 elderly people with nonvalvular AF followed for a median of 5.3 years. The rate of ischemic stroke was 2.8\% per year (95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.9, 3.9). Thirty-one percent were predicted to be at low risk, and their stroke rate was 1.7\% per year (95\% CI 0.6, 3.8). Many people with AF in this population-derived cohort had relatively low rates of stroke. Further studies to reliably stratify stroke risk in patients with AF are needed.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Humans, Male, Poisson Distribution, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {0884-8734}, author = {Feinberg, W M and Kronmal, R A and Newman, A B and Kraut, M A and Bovill, E G and Cooper, L and Hart, R G} } @article {625, title = {Chlamydia pneumoniae, herpes simplex virus type 1, and cytomegalovirus and incident myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease death in older adults : the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {102}, year = {2000}, month = {2000 Nov 07}, pages = {2335-40}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Whether serological evidence of prior infection with Chlamydia pneumoniae, herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) death remains a source of controversy.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a nested case-control study among participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a cohort study of persons aged >/=65 years. Cases experienced an incident MI and CHD death (n=213). Control subjects were matched to cases by age, sex, clinic, year of enrollment, and month of blood draw (n=405). Serum was analyzed for IgG antibodies to C pneumoniae, HSV-1, and CMV. After adjustment for other risk factors, the risk of MI and CHD death was associated with the presence of IgG antibodies to HSV-1 (odds ratio [OR] 2.0, 95\% CI 1.1 to 3.6) but was not associated with the presence of IgG antibodies to either C pneumoniae (OR 1.1, 95\% CI 0.7 to 1.8) or CMV (OR 1.2, 95\% CI 0.7 to 1.9). Although there was little association with low to moderate C pneumoniae antibody titers (

CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, the presence of IgG antibodies to HSV-1 was associated with a 2-fold increase in the risk of incident MI and CHD death. For C pneumoniae, only high-titer IgG antibodies were associated with an increased risk of MI and CHD death. The presence of IgG antibodies to CMV was not associated with risk among the elderly.

}, keywords = {Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Antibodies, Bacterial, Antibodies, Viral, Case-Control Studies, Chlamydophila pneumoniae, Coronary Disease, Cytomegalovirus, Female, Herpesvirus 1, Human, HIV Antibodies, Humans, Immunoglobulin G, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Risk Factors}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/01.cir.102.19.2335}, author = {Siscovick, D S and Schwartz, S M and Corey, L and Grayston, J T and Ashley, R and Wang, S P and Psaty, B M and Tracy, R P and Kuller, L H and Kronmal, R A} } @article {1528, title = {Neurologic correlates of infarction-like lesion location on magnetic resonance imaging in the cardiovascular health study}, journal = {J. Stroke Cerebrovascular Disease}, volume = {9}, year = {2000}, month = {2000-01-01}, pages = {228}, chapter = {218}, abstract = {Objective: To evaluate and quantify the associations of infarction-like lesion location in the brain with cognitive and physical impairment in an elderly population. Methods: Data from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans for 3647 Cardiovascular Health Study participants were analyzed. Associations between infarction-like lesion location and various neurologic and performance-based measurements were assessed by using regression models. Continuous responses were expressed in percentiles. Models excluding participants with a history of stroke were also examined. Results: Brainstem infarction-like lesions were associated with a severely reduced Mini-Mental State Examination score (difference [d] = 15 percentiles, P < .001), reduced digit-symbol score (d = 12 percentiles, P < .01), increased time to walk 15 feet (d = 15 percentiles, P < .001), and increased odds of a history of dizziness (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5, P <.01). Basal ganglia infarctions were associated with an increased prevalence of visual field deficits (OR = 1.8, P <.001), and cerebellar white matter infarction-like lesions with an increased prevalence of a history of coma (OR = 4.0, P < .01). For those with infarction-like lesions in both the cerebral cortex and brainstem, the degree of sleepiness was substantially elevated (d = 34 percentiles, P < .01). No associations with a history of migraines were detected. After exclusion of those with stroke history, all of these associations persisted. Conclusion: The estimated magnitude and statistical significance of these associations relative to those with no infarction-like lesions provides new information. Further investigation for some of the associations, such as the role of the brainstem in cognitive function and the association of basal ganglia infarction-like lesions with visual field deficits, would be worthwhile.}, keywords = {basal, Brain, Cerebral Cortex, ganglia, Health, history, Infarction, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, methods, Odds Ratio, Population, Prevalence, Stroke}, author = {McClelland, RL and Kronmal, RA and Bryan, RN and Manolio, TA and Herskovits, EH and Kuller, LH and O{\textquoteright}Leary, DH} } @article {666, title = {Hypertension, heart rate, use of antihypertensives, and incident prostate cancer.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {11}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 Nov}, pages = {534-42}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: Recent studies have reported conflicting results on a possible relationship between hypertension, heart rate, and prostate cancer. A model has been developed suggesting that high blood pressure and high heart rate may both be markers for increased central sympathetic nervous activity, which may result in androgen-mediated stimulation of prostate cancer growth.

METHODS: In this study we examined the associations between hypertension, heart rate, use of antihypertensive medications, and incident prostate cancer in a cohort of 2442 men. Data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), an NHLBI-sponsored observational study of adults age 65 or older in four U.S. communities, were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Seated systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured using a standardized protocol at the initial clinical examination and annually at follow-up visits. Medications data were transcribed by trained interviewers from prescription medication containers brought into the clinic by participants.

RESULTS: A total of 209 cases of incident prostate cancer were identified from either an ICD-9 code of 185 in hospital medical records (n = 130) or by self-report from annual surveillance interviews (n = 79). An average of 5.6 years of follow-up was available for analyses. No associations between blood pressure measures at entry into the study and prostate cancer were found, although these results may have been affected by subsequent treatment of hypertension. An association between resting heart rate (HR) equal to or greater than 80 beats per minute and incident prostate cancer was found compared to men with a rate of less than 60 beats per minute (HR: 1.6, 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-2.5). An inverse association was found between risk of incident prostate cancer and use of any antihypertensive medication (HR: 0.7, 95\% CI: 0.5-0.9). A test of heterogeneity found no difference between use of the specific classes of antihypertensive medication and the association with prostate cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS: These data tend to support the hypothesized causal pathway between vascular disease markers and prostate cancer.

}, keywords = {Aged, Antihypertensive Agents, Cohort Studies, Heart Rate, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Male, Proportional Hazards Models, Prostatic Neoplasms, Risk, United States}, issn = {1047-2797}, doi = {10.1016/s1047-2797(01)00246-0}, author = {Fitzpatrick, A L and Daling, J R and Furberg, C D and Kronmal, R A and Weissfeld, J L} } @article {664, title = {Relation of hemodynamics and risk factors to ventricular-vascular interactions in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Hypertens}, volume = {19}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 Oct}, pages = {1893-903}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the interaction between left ventricular (LV) geometry, carotid structure and arterial compliance in relation to hemodynamic stimuli and risk factors (plasma cholesterol, body mass index, insulin resistance, smoking habit, age, sex and race).

DESIGN: Cross-sectional.

METHODS: Echocardiography and carotid ultrasound were performed in 2375 elderly subjects without signs or history of prevalent cardiovascular disease, diabetes or renal disease (795 men; 298 non-whites; 1215 hypertensive), from the cohort of the Cardiovascular Health Study. Arterial compliance was estimated by the prognostically validated ratio of stroke volume to pulse pressure (SV/PP) as the percent deviation (Delta\%) from the value predicted by individual age, heart rate and body weight.

RESULTS: Intima-medial thickness (IMT) was higher in the presence of LV hypertrophy (LVH) in normotensive and hypertensive subjects and was greatest in the presence of concentric LVH. Maximum carotid lumen diameter (CLD) was also higher in the presence of LVH (and was greatest with eccentric LVH, in association with relatively high values for stroke volume). After adjusting for blood pressure, maximum carotid lumen diameter was directly correlated with stroke volume, and IMT to LV mass (all P < 0.001). Similarly, IMT was also related to maximum carotid lumen diameter, independently of prevalent risk factors (P < 0.001). SV/PP-Delta\% was reduced in both groups with concentric LV remodeling (both P < 0.0001) or concentric LVH (both P < 0.05). Adjusting for risk factors did not affect these associations in normotensives, but made them insignificant in hypertensives. In normotensives, IMT was inversely related to SV/PP-Delta\% (P < 0.001), independently of risk factors, whereas no significant relation was found in hypertensives.

CONCLUSIONS: The magnitudes of carotid intima-medial thickness and lumen diameter parallel levels of LV mass and geometry, and are directly related to stroke volume and arterial stiffness; this interaction is most evident in the presence of normal blood pressure, whereas it is affected by other cardiovascular risk factors when arterial hypertension is present.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Carotid Arteries, Compliance, Cross-Sectional Studies, Echocardiography, Female, Hemodynamics, Humans, Hypertension, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Reference Values, Risk Factors, Stroke Volume, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media, Ventricular Function, Left}, issn = {0263-6352}, doi = {10.1097/00004872-200110000-00026}, author = {de Simone, G and McClelland, R and Gottdiener, J S and Celentano, A and Kronmal, R A and Gardin, J M} } @article {655, title = {Usefulness of T-axis deviation as an independent risk indicator for incident cardiac events in older men and women free from coronary heart disease (the Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Am J Cardiol}, volume = {88}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 Jul 15}, pages = {118-23}, abstract = {

T-axis shift has been reported to be an indicator of increased mortality risk. We evaluated the association of spatial T-axis deviation with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events in older men and women free from clinically overt CHD. Spatial T-axis deviation was measured from the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram of a subgroup of 4,173 subjects considered free of CHD at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort study of risk factors for CHD and stroke in older men and women. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association of altered repolarization with the risk of incident CHD events. The prevalence of marked T-axis deviation (> or =45 degrees ) was 12\%. During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, there were 161 CHD deaths, 743 deaths from all causes, and 679 incident CHD events. Adjusting for demographic and clinical risk factors, including other electrocardiographic abnormalities, there was a nearly twofold excess risk of CHD death, and approximately a 50\% excess risk of incident CHD and all-cause mortality for those with marked T-axis deviation. From other electrocardiographic abnormalities, only QT prolongation was associated with excess risk for incident CHD comparable to that for abnormal T-axis deviation. These results suggest that T-axis deviation is an easily quantified marker for subclinical disease and an independent indicator for the risk of incident CHD events in older men and women free of CHD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Algorithms, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke, Survival Analysis}, issn = {0002-9149}, doi = {10.1016/s0002-9149(01)01604-6}, author = {Rautaharju, P M and Nelson, J C and Kronmal, R A and Zhang, Z M and Robbins, J and Gottdiener, J S and Furberg, C D and Manolio, T and Fried, L} } @article {711, title = {Angiotensin II type 1 receptor polymorphisms in the cardiovascular health study: relation to blood pressure, ethnicity, and cardiovascular events.}, journal = {Am J Hypertens}, volume = {15}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Dec}, pages = {1050-6}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The angiotensin II type 1 receptor A1166C polymorphism has been associated with increased risks of hypertension and myocardial infarction in several small studies. We examined the association between this polymorphism and new-onset hypertension, blood pressure (BP) control, and incident cardiovascular events in a large population-based cohort of older adults.

METHODS: Eight hundred self-identified African Americans and 1,371 randomly selected white participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study were genotyped. The median duration of follow-up was 8.1 years.

RESULTS: The A1166C polymorphism was not associated with new-onset hypertension, with BP control, or with incident cardiovascular events in the overall population. In white participants, the CC genotype was associated with higher baseline systolic BP and pulse pressure, compared to the AC or AA genotype. In whites with treated hypertension at baseline, compared to the AA genotype, the CC genotype was associated with increased risks of incident congestive heart failure (hazard ratio = 2.5, 95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-4.9) and incident ischemic stroke (hazard ratio = 2.6, 95\% CI 1.1-6.0). These associations were not observed among white participants without treated hypertension, but the interaction of genotype with treated hypertension on ischemic stroke and heart failure was only marginally significant.

CONCLUSIONS: On the whole, in this large cohort of older adults, the A1166C polymorphism was not associated with BP control or incident cardiovascular events. The subgroup findings in treated hypertensives need to be confirmed in additional studies.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Gene Frequency, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Polymorphism, Genetic, Receptor, Angiotensin, Type 1, Receptors, Angiotensin, United States}, issn = {0895-7061}, doi = {10.1016/s0895-7061(02)03063-7}, author = {Hindorff, Lucia A and Heckbert, Susan R and Tracy, Russell and Tang, Zhonghua and Psaty, Bruce M and Edwards, Karen L and Siscovick, David S and Kronmal, Richard A and Nazar-Stewart, Valle} } @article {675, title = {Fasting and 2-hour postchallenge serum glucose measures and risk of incident cardiovascular events in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {162}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Jan 28}, pages = {209-16}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The contributions of fasting and 2-hour postchallenge glucose level to cardiovascular events remain ill-defined, especially for nondiabetic adults. This study examined the relative predictive power of fasting and 2-hour glucose level on cardiovascular event risk.

METHODS: A total of 4014 community-dwelling adults 65 years or older who participated in the baseline visit of the Cardiovascular Health Study and who were without treated diabetes or previous myocardial infarction or stroke were eligible for analyses. Participants with treated diabetes at baseline were excluded. Incident myocardial infarction or stroke, or coronary death, was the outcome of interest. Age-, sex-, and race-adjusted proportional hazards regression models described individual and joint associations between baseline measures of fasting and 2-hour postchallenge glucose level and event risk.

RESULTS: There were 764 incident cardiovascular events during 8.5 years of follow-up. Fasting glucose level of 115 mg/dL (6.4 mmol/L) or more was associated with an increased cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66 [95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.39-1.98]) in adjusted analyses compared with fasting glucose level less than 115 mg/dL. Two-hour glucose level was associated with a linear risk (HR, 1.02 [95\% CI, 1.00-1.04] per 10 mg/dL [0.6 mmol/L]) that included an additional increase in risk for 2-hour glucose level of 154 mg/dL (8.5 mmol/L) or more (HR, 1.29 [95\% CI, 1.04-1.59]) in adjusted analyses. In joint fasting and 2-hour glucose models, only 2-hour glucose level remained predictive of event risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Two-hour glucose level was better than fasting glucose level alone at identifying older adults at increased risk of major incident cardiovascular events.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Glucose, Cardiovascular Diseases, Fasting, Female, Glucose Tolerance Test, Humans, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Stroke}, issn = {0003-9926}, doi = {10.1001/archinte.162.2.209}, author = {Smith, Nicholas L and Barzilay, Joshua I and Shaffer, Douglas and Savage, Peter J and Heckbert, Susan R and Kuller, Lewis H and Kronmal, Richard A and Resnick, Helaine E and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {696, title = {Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of lipoproteins and risk of coronary heart disease in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol}, volume = {22}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Jul 01}, pages = {1175-80}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: Relationships between incident cardiovascular disease and lipoprotein subclass measurements by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were evaluated in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) in a nested case-cohort analysis.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The case group consisted of 434 participants with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and angina diagnosed after entry to the study (1990 to 1995) and the comparison group, 249 "healthy" participants with no prevalent clinical or subclinical disease. By univariate analysis, the median levels for healthy participants versus participants with incident MI and angina were 0 versus 7 mg\% for small low density lipoprotein (LDL), 1501 versus 1680 nmol/L for the number of LDL particles, and 21.6 versus 21.3 for LDL size, and these values were significantly different between "healthy" participants and those with incident MI and angina for women but not men. The levels of less dense LDL, which is most of the total LDL cholesterol among women, was not related to incident MI and angina. For women, large high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), but not small HDLc, levels were significantly higher for healthy participants compared with levels for participants with MI and angina. For men and women, levels of total and very low density lipoprotein triglycerides were higher for the case group than for the healthy group. In multivariate models for women that included triglycerides and HDLc, the number of LDL particles (but not LDL size) remained significantly related to MI and angina.

CONCLUSIONS: Small LDL, the size of LDL particles, and the greater number of LDL particles are related to incident coronary heart disease among older women.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aging, Cardiovascular System, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Female, Health Status, Humans, Lipoproteins, HDL, Lipoproteins, LDL, Lipoproteins, VLDL, Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, Male, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, Biomolecular, Risk Factors, Sex Factors}, issn = {1524-4636}, doi = {10.1161/01.atv.0000022015.97341.3a}, author = {Kuller, Lewis and Arnold, Alice and Tracy, Russell and Otvos, James and Burke, Greg and Psaty, Bruce and Siscovick, David and Freedman, David S and Kronmal, Richard} } @article {672, title = {A regression model for longitudinal change in the presence of measurement error.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {12}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Jan}, pages = {34-8}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: The analysis of change in measured variables has become quite popular in studies where data are collected repeatedly over time. The authors describe some of the potential pitfalls in the analysis of change when the variable for change is measured with error. They show that regression analysis is often biased, possibly leading to erroneous results.

METHODS: A simple method to correct for measurement error bias in regression models that model change is presented.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The two examples illustrate how measurement error can adversely affect an analysis. The bias-corrected approach yields valid results.

}, keywords = {Aged, Bias, Coronary Disease, Humans, Lipoproteins, Models, Statistical, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors}, issn = {1047-2797}, doi = {10.1016/s1047-2797(01)00280-0}, author = {Yanez, N David and Kronmal, Richard A and Shemanski, Lynn R and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {681, title = {Regression-based variable clustering for data reduction.}, journal = {Stat Med}, volume = {21}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Mar 30}, pages = {921-41}, abstract = {

In many studies it is of interest to cluster states, counties or other small regions in order to obtain improved estimates of disease rates or other summary measures, and a more parsimonious representation of the country as a whole. This may be the case if there are too many to summarize concisely, and/or many regions with a small number of cases. By merging the regions into larger geographic areas, we obtain more cases within each area (and hence lower standard errors for parameter estimates), as well as fewer areas to summarize in terms of disease rates. The resulting clusters should be such that regions within the same cluster are similar in terms of their disease rates. In this paper we present a clustering algorithm which uses data at the subject-specific level in order to cluster the original regions into a reduced set of larger areas. The proposed clustering algorithm expresses the clustering goals in terms of a regression framework. This formulation of the problem allows the regions to be clustered in terms of their association with the response, and confounding variables measured at the subject-specific level may be easily incorporated during the clustering process. Additionally, this framework allows estimation and testing of the association between the areas and the response. The statistical properties and performance of the algorithm were evaluated via simulation studies, and the results are promising. Additional simulations illustrate the importance of controlling for confounding variables during the clustering process, rather than after the clusters are determined. The algorithm is illustrated with data from the Cardiovascular Health Study. Although developed with a specific application in mind, the method is applicable to a wide range of problems.

}, keywords = {Aged, Algorithms, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cluster Analysis, Cognition, Computer Simulation, Humans, Infarction, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Models, Statistical, Regression Analysis}, issn = {0277-6715}, doi = {10.1002/sim.1063}, author = {McClelland, R L and Kronmal, R A} } @article {704, title = {Relationship between coronary artery calcification and other measures of subclinical cardiovascular disease in older adults.}, journal = {Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol}, volume = {22}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Oct 01}, pages = {1674-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: In the Cardiovascular Health Study, subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CVD events in older adults. The extent to which this measure or its components reflect calcified coronary disease is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) was assessed with electron beam tomography in 414 participants without clinical CVD and examined using cut points (CAC> or =400 and CAC> or =800) and the log(CAC); 274 had subclinical CVD by ankle-arm index, ECG, or carotid ultrasound. Cut points for subclinical disease as previously defined in the Cardiovascular Health Study were examined as well as continuous measures to produce receiver operating characteristic curve curves. A low ankle-arm index was highly specific for a high CAC score. The internal carotid artery intima-media thickness was most strongly correlated with CAC (r=0.30) and was significantly related to both CAC cut points and to the log(CAC) score independently of all other measures.

CONCLUSIONS: In these community-dwelling older adults without clinical CVD, internal carotid artery intima-media thickness was most closely related to CAC. However, 17.5\% of those with a CAC> or =400 would be missed in the ascertainment of subclinical atherosclerosis using the previously published composite of subclinical atherosclerosis. Prospective follow-up will determine whether the CAC score improves prediction of CVD events over other noninvasive measures.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Calcinosis, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Stenosis, Cohort Studies, Coronary Artery Disease, Demography, Female, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Risk Factors, Sensitivity and Specificity, Sex Factors, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media}, issn = {1524-4636}, doi = {10.1161/01.atv.0000033540.89672.24}, author = {Newman, Anne B and Naydeck, Barbara L and Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim and Edmundowicz, Daniel and O{\textquoteright}Leary, Daniel and Kronmal, Richard and Burke, Gregory L and Kuller, Lewis H} } @article {698, title = {Serum potassium level and dietary potassium intake as risk factors for stroke.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {59}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Aug 13}, pages = {314-20}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have found that low potassium intake and low serum potassium are associated with increased stroke mortality, but data regarding stroke incidence have been limited. Serum potassium levels, dietary potassium intake, and diuretic use in relation to risk for stroke in a prospectively studied cohort were investigated.

METHODS: The study comprised 5,600 men and women older than 65 years who were free of stroke at enrollment. Baseline data included serum potassium level, dietary potassium intake, and diuretic use. Participants were followed for 4 to 8 years, and the incidence and types of strokes were recorded. Low serum potassium was defined as less than 4.1 mEq/L, and low potassium intake as less than 2.4 g/d.

RESULTS: Among diuretic users, there was an increased risk for stroke associated with lower serum potassium (relative risk [RR]: 2.5, p < 0.0001). Among individuals not taking diuretics, there was an increased risk for stroke associated with low dietary potassium intake (RR: 1.5, p < 0.005). The small number of diuretic users with lower serum potassium and atrial fibrillation had a 10-fold greater risk for stroke compared with those with higher serum potassium and normal sinus rhythm.

CONCLUSIONS: A lower serum potassium level in diuretic users, and low potassium intake in those not taking diuretics were associated with increased stroke incidence among older individuals. Lower serum potassium was associated with a particularly high risk for stroke in the small number of diuretic users with atrial fibrillation. Further study is required to determine if modification of these factors would prevent strokes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Diuretics, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Potassium, Potassium, Dietary, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke}, issn = {0028-3878}, doi = {10.1212/wnl.59.3.314}, author = {Green, D M and Ropper, A H and Kronmal, R A and Psaty, B M and Burke, G L} } @article {676, title = {A stroke prediction score in the elderly: validation and Web-based application.}, journal = {J Clin Epidemiol}, volume = {55}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Feb}, pages = {129-36}, abstract = {

The objective of this study was to construct a prediction model for predicting stroke in an elderly U.S. population, and to assess the accuracy in this population of other previously published prediction models. The subjects were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study: 2,495 men and 3,393 women age 65 years and older at baseline, and followed for 6.3 years. Among 5,711 participants free of baseline stroke, 399 strokes occurred. Sex-specific prediction equations were constructed using study variables that were most importantly related to incident stroke: age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, ECG diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or left ventricular hypertrophy, confirmed history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, time to walk 15 ft, and serum creatinine. The prediction rule was implemented as a risk score and in a Web-based interactive Java applet. Overall, the model predicted 5-year stroke risks ranging from less than 1 to 59\%. The 20\% of subjects in the highest predicted risk group had a 5-year actual stroke incidence rate of 15\%, while the 20\% lowest risk group had a 1\% incidence. Risk scores from two other studies performed well in these study participants. Effective discrimination between low and high stroke risk in the elderly was possible in this cohort with data that are easy to obtain. Evaluation of the generalizability and clinical usefulness of this prediction model requires further research.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Models, Cardiovascular, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, ROC Curve, Stroke, United States}, issn = {0895-4356}, doi = {10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00434-6}, author = {Lumley, Thomas and Kronmal, Richard A and Cushman, Mary and Manolio, Teri A and Goldstein, Steven} } @article {695, title = {Therapy with hydroxymethylglutaryl coenzyme a reductase inhibitors (statins) and associated risk of incident cardiovascular events in older adults: evidence from the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {162}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Jun 24}, pages = {1395-400}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Recommendations to treat older adults with hydroxymethylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease events are supported by a single clinical trial restricted to adults 73 years or younger with low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

METHODS: We investigated the association of statin use with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality during up to 7.3 years{\textquoteright} follow-up of 1250 women and 664 men from the Cardiovascular Health Study. Study participants were 65 years and older and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. They received drug therapy to lower cholesterol levels at baseline or no treatment with a recommendation for therapy according to the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines. Use of these drugs was assessed annually. We used proportional-hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95\% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for confounding variables.

RESULTS: We found 382 incident cardiovascular events (159 myocardial infarctions, 159 strokes, and 64 deaths due to coronary heart disease) and 362 total deaths from June 1, 1989, to May 31, 1997. Compared with no use of drugs to lower cholesterol levels, statin use was associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular events (multivariate HR, 0.44; 95\% CI, 0.27-0.71) and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.56; 95\% CI, 0.36-0.88). Similar associations were observed among participants 74 years or older at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS: Use of statins was associated with decreased risk of incident cardiovascular events among elderly adults. These findings lend support to the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, which recommend therapy for the lowering of cholesterol levels for older adults with hypercholesterolemia.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cholesterol, LDL, Coronary Disease, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors, Hypercholesterolemia, Hypolipidemic Agents, Incidence, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0003-9926}, doi = {10.1001/archinte.162.12.1395}, author = {Lemaitre, Rozenn N and Psaty, Bruce M and Heckbert, Susan R and Kronmal, Richard A and Newman, Anne B and Burke, Gregory L} } @article {753, title = {Alcohol consumption and carotid atherosclerosis in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol}, volume = {23}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Dec}, pages = {2252-9}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: The association of alcohol use with atherosclerosis is inconsistent in previous studies.

METHODS AND RESULTS: For the Cardiovascular Health Study, 5888 adults aged 65 years and older underwent a standardized interview and examination. They reported beer, wine, and liquor use individually and underwent B-mode ultrasonography to determine internal and common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). We compared composite carotid IMT values cross-sectionally using linear regression to adjust for demographic and clinical characteristics. Among 4247 participants free of cardiovascular disease, consumers of 1 to 6 drinks per week had 0.07+/-0.04-mm lower composite IMT and consumers of 14 or more drinks per week had 0.07+/-0.05-mm higher IMT than abstainers (P quadratic trend=0.02). We found similar relationships using internal and common carotid thickness measures and among men and women. The higher IMT associated with heavier alcohol use was particularly strong among 1592 participants with confirmed cardiovascular disease (0.24+/-0.09 mm greater than abstainers). Controlling for HDL cholesterol levels reduced the effect on composite IMT among consumers of 1 to 6 drinks per week by 22\%.

CONCLUSIONS: Relative to older adults who abstain from alcohol, consumption of 1 to 6 drinks per week had an inverse association with carotid atherosclerosis whereas consumption of 14 or more drinks had a positive association.

}, keywords = {Aged, Alcohol Drinking, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Artery Diseases, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Prospective Studies}, issn = {1524-4636}, doi = {10.1161/01.ATV.0000101183.58453.39}, author = {Mukamal, Kenneth J and Kronmal, Richard A and Mittleman, Murray A and O{\textquoteright}Leary, Daniel H and Polak, Joseph F and Cushman, Mary and Siscovick, David S} } @article {738, title = {The association between time since last meal and blood pressure in older adults: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {51}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Jun}, pages = {824-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate a postprandial hypotensive (PPH) phenomenon in older adults.

DESIGN: Observational, prospective cohort study composed of baseline and nine follow-up visits.

SETTING: Cardiovascular Health Study, an epidemiological study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in older adults.

PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred eighty-eight community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older.

MEASUREMENTS: Blood pressure and time since last meal were recorded synchronously at baseline and at follow-up clinic visits. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations between time since last meal and blood pressure and to adjust variance estimates to account for repeated blood pressure measures within subjects across fasting times.

RESULTS: Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were lower in the first hour after the last meal and were progressively higher through the fourth hour after the last meal than blood pressures measured immediately after the last meal (0 hour: 133.7/68.8 mmHg; 1st hour: 130.1/66.6 mmHg; 4th hour: 136.5/71.1 mmHg). Changes were significant for systolic and diastolic measures (P <.001 for both). Exploratory analyses suggested that the systolic PPH association was more pronounced in women. Little evidence was found that the degree of systolic or diastolic PPH varied by age, race, prevalent cardiovascular disease, heart rate, ejection fraction, treated hypertension or diabetes mellitus, or body mass index.

CONCLUSION: These data support previous observations that there is a significant drop in blood pressure within 1 hour after a meal in older adults. Time since last meal may be an important factor to consider when measuring blood pressure in older adults, and perhaps national standards need to be set.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Eating, Female, Humans, Hypotension, Male, Postprandial Period, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2389.2003.51264.x}, author = {Smith, Nicholas L and Psaty, Bruce M and Rutan, Gale H and Lumley, Thomas and Yanez, David and Chaves, Paulo H M and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {733, title = {Beta2-adrenergic receptor polymorphisms and risk of incident cardiovascular events in the elderly.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {107}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Apr 22}, pages = {2021-4}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms at codons 16 and 27 of the beta2-adrenergic receptor have been associated with altered response to sympathetic stimulation. We examined these polymorphisms in relation to cardiovascular event risk in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 808 black and 4441 white participants (mean age, 73 years) were genotyped for the Arg16Gly and Gln27Glu polymorphisms of the beta2-adrenergic receptor. There were 702 incident coronary events, 438 ischemic strokes, and 1136 combined cardiovascular events during 7 to 10 years of follow-up. Allele frequencies differed by race but not by age or hypertension status. Glu27 carriers had a lower risk of coronary events than Gln27 homozygotes (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95\% CI, 0.70 to 0.95), and there was a suggestion of decreased risk among Gly16 carriers compared with Arg16 homozygotes (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95\% CI, 0.72 to 1.07). There was no association of beta2-adrenergic receptor genotype with ischemic stroke or combined cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS: The Glu27 allele of the beta2-adrenergic receptor was associated with a lower risk of incident coronary events in this elderly population.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Alleles, Brain Ischemia, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Coronary Disease, European Continental Ancestry Group, Follow-Up Studies, Gene Frequency, Humans, Incidence, Linkage Disequilibrium, Polymorphism, Genetic, Receptors, Adrenergic, beta-2, Risk Assessment, Stroke, United States}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/01.CIR.0000065231.07729.92}, author = {Heckbert, Susan R and Hindorff, Lucia A and Edwards, Karen L and Psaty, Bruce M and Lumley, Thomas and Siscovick, David S and Tang, Zhonghua and Durda, J Peter and Kronmal, Richard A and Tracy, Russell P} } @article {758, title = {Inflammation as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {108}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Dec 16}, pages = {3006-10}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The presence of systemic inflammation determined by elevations in C-reactive protein (CRP) has been associated with persistence of atrial fibrillation (AF). The relationship between CRP and prediction of AF has not been studied in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS: CRP measurement and cardiovascular assessment were performed at baseline in 5806 subjects enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Patients were followed up for a mean of 6.9+/-1.6 (median 7.8) years. AF was identified by self-reported history and ECGs at baseline and by ECGs and hospital discharge diagnoses at follow-up. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess CRP as a predictor of baseline and future development of AF. At baseline, 315 subjects (5\%) had AF. Compared with subjects in the first CRP quartile (<0.97 mg/L), subjects in the fourth quartile (>3.41 mg/L) had more AF (7.4\% versus 3.7\%, adjusted OR 1.8, 95\% CI 1.2 to 2.5; P=0.002). Of 5491 subjects without AF at baseline, 897 (16\%) developed AF during follow-up. Baseline CRP predicted higher risk for developing future AF (fourth versus first quartile adjusted hazard ratio 1.31, 95\% CI 1.08 to 1.58; P=0.005). When treated as a continuous variable, elevated CRP predicted increased risk for developing future AF (adjusted hazard ratio for 1-SD increase, 1.24; 95\% CI 1.11 to 1.40; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: CRP is not only associated with the presence of AF but may also predict patients at increased risk for future development of AF.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, C-Reactive Protein, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Inflammation, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Risk Factors}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/01.CIR.0000103131.70301.4F}, author = {Aviles, Ronnier J and Martin, David O and Apperson-Hansen, Carolyn and Houghtaling, Penny L and Rautaharju, Pentti and Kronmal, Richard A and Tracy, Russell P and Van Wagoner, David R and Psaty, Bruce M and Lauer, Michael S and Chung, Mina K} } @article {717, title = {Multiple imputation of baseline data in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {157}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Jan 01}, pages = {74-84}, abstract = {

Most epidemiologic studies will encounter missing covariate data. Software packages typically used for analyzing data delete any cases with a missing covariate to perform a complete case analysis. The deletion of cases complicates variable selection when different variables are missing on different cases, reduces power, and creates the potential for bias in the resulting estimates. Recently, software has become available for producing multiple imputations of missing data that account for the between-imputation variability. The implementation of the software to impute missing baseline data in the setting of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a large, observational study, is described. Results of exploratory analyses using the imputed data were largely consistent with results using only complete cases, even in a situation where one third of the cases were excluded from the complete case analysis. There were few differences in the exploratory results across three imputations, and the combined results from the multiple imputations were very similar to results from a single imputation. An increase in power was evident and variable selection simplified when using the imputed data sets.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Analysis of Variance, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Cohort Studies, Data Collection, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Epidemiologic Studies, Female, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Mathematical Computing, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Software, Survival Analysis, United States, Ventricular Remodeling}, issn = {0002-9262}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwf156}, author = {Arnold, Alice M and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {735, title = {Renal insufficiency as a predictor of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in elderly individuals.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {41}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Apr 16}, pages = {1364-72}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between elevated creatinine levels and cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The association of mild to moderate renal insufficiency with cardiovascular outcomes remains unclear.

METHODS: We analyzed data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective population-based study of subjects, aged >65 years, who had a serum creatinine measured at baseline (n = 5,808) and were followed for a median of 7.3 years. Proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of creatinine to all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Renal insufficiency was defined as a creatinine level > or =1.5 mg/dl in men or > or =1.3 mg/dl in women.

RESULTS: An elevated creatinine level was present in 648 (11.2\%) participants. Subjects with elevated creatinine had higher overall (76.7 vs. 29.5/1,000 years, p < 0.001) and cardiovascular (35.8 vs. 13.0/1,000 years, p < 0.001) mortality than those with normal creatinine levels. They were more likely to develop cardiovascular disease (54.0 vs. 31.8/1,000 years, p < 0.001), stroke (21.1 vs. 11.9/1,000 years, p < 0.001), congestive heart failure (38.7 vs. 17/1,000 years, p < 0.001), and symptomatic peripheral vascular disease (10.6 vs. 3.5/1,000 years, p < 0.001). After adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors and subclinical disease measures, elevated creatinine remained a significant predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, total cardiovascular disease (CVD), claudication, and congestive heart failure (CHF). A linear increase in risk was observed with increasing creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS: Elevated creatinine levels are common in older adults and are associated with increased risk of mortality, CVD, and CHF. The increased risk is apparent early in renal disease.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Confidence Intervals, Creatinine, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Intermittent Claudication, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Odds Ratio, Predictive Value of Tests, Survival Analysis}, issn = {0735-1097}, doi = {10.1016/s0735-1097(03)00163-3}, author = {Fried, Linda F and Shlipak, Michael G and Crump, Casey and Bleyer, Anthony J and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A and Kuller, Lewis H and Newman, Anne B} } @article {803, title = {The association between lipid levels and the risks of incident myocardial infarction, stroke, and total mortality: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {52}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Oct}, pages = {1639-47}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between lipid levels and cardiovascular events in older adults.

DESIGN: A prospective population-based study.

SETTING: Four field centers in U.S. communities.

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5,201 adults aged 65 and older living in U.S. communities, plus a recruitment of 687 African Americans 3 years later.

MEASUREMENTS: Fasting lipid measures included low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol, and triglycerides.

RESULTS: At baseline, 1,954 men and 2,931 women were at risk for an incident myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. During an average 7.5-year follow-up, 436 subjects had a coronary event, 332 had an ischemic stroke, 104 a hemorrhagic stroke, and 1,096 died. After adjustment, lipid measures were not major predictors of the outcomes of MI, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total mortality. For total cholesterol and LDL-C, the associations with MI and ischemic stroke were only marginally significant. HDL-C was inversely associated with MI risk (hazard ratio=0.85 per standard deviation of 15.7 mg/dL, 95\% confidence interval=0.76-0.96). For the outcome of ischemic stroke, high levels of HDL-C were associated with a decreased risk in men but not women. Lipid measures were generally only weakly associated with the risks of hemorrhagic stroke or total mortality.

CONCLUSION: In this population-based study of older adults, most lipid measures were weakly associated with cardiovascular events. The association between low HDL-C and increased MI risk was nonetheless strong and consistent.

}, keywords = {African Americans, African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Incidence, Lipids, Male, Mortality, Myocardial Infarction, Population Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke, United States}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2004.52455.x}, author = {Psaty, Bruce M and Anderson, Melissa and Kronmal, Richard A and Tracy, Russell P and Orchard, Trevor and Fried, Linda P and Lumley, Thomas and Robbins, John and Burke, Greg and Newman, Anne B and Furberg, Curt D} } @article {791, title = {The association of fasting glucose levels with congestive heart failure in diabetic adults > or =65 years: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {43}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Jun 16}, pages = {2236-41}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine if fasting glucose levels are an independent risk factor for congestive heart failure (CHF) in elderly individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) with or without coronary heart disease (CHD).

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus and CHF frequently coexist in the elderly. It is not clear whether fasting glucose levels in the setting of DM are a risk factor for incident CHF in the elderly.

METHODS: A cohort of 829 diabetic participants, age > or =65 years, without prevalent CHF, was followed for five to eight years. The Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to determine the risk of CHF by fasting glucose levels. The cohort was categorized by the presence or absence of prevalent CHD.

RESULTS: For a 1 standard deviation (60.6 mg/dl) increase in fasting glucose, the adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHF among participants without CHD at baseline, with or without an incident myocardial infarction (MI) or CHD event on follow-up, was 1.41 (95\% confidence interval 1.24 to 1.61; p < 0.0001). Among those with prevalent CHD at baseline, with or without another incident MI or CHD event on follow-up, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratio was 1.27 (95\% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.58; p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults with DM, elevated fasting glucose levels are a risk factor for incident CHF. The relationship of fasting glucose to CHF differs somewhat by the presence or absence of prevalent CHD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Blood Glucose, Blood Pressure, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Diabetic Angiopathies, Fasting, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Statistics as Topic, Stroke Volume, Ventricular Function, Left}, issn = {0735-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2003.10.074}, author = {Barzilay, Joshua I and Kronmal, Richard A and Gottdiener, John S and Smith, Nicholas L and Burke, Gregory L and Tracy, Russell and Savage, Peter J and Carlson, Michelle} } @article {787, title = {Predictors of falling cholesterol levels in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {14}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 May}, pages = {325-31}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: To estimate 4-year change in serum total cholesterol levels in a population-based sample of older adults and identify independent predictors of cholesterol decline.

METHODS: Prospective study of 2837 adults aged 65 years and older with serum cholesterol measured in 1992-1993 and 1996-1997.

RESULTS: Mean serum cholesterol levels declined 6.3 mg/dl between the two examinations. Declines were greater in white (-7.3 mg/dl) than black (-1.4 mg/dl) participants and in those in good/excellent health (-0.9 mg/dl) vs. fair/poor health (-3.1 mg/dl; both p < 0.01). Factors associated with greater decline on multivariate analysis included age, male gender, and higher white cell count, albumin, and baseline cholesterol. Cholesterol levels declined 2.0 mg/dl per 6 year increment in baseline age and 6.8 mg/dl more in men than women after adjustment for other factors. C-reactive protein levels were unrelated to cholesterol change.

CONCLUSION: Declining cholesterol levels were associated with male gender, advanced age, weight loss, and white blood cell count but not with C-reactive protein levels. The role of declining cholesterol synthesis, due to as yet undefined age-related changes or to cytokine-mediated reductions related to illness, should be examined to help clarify the mechanisms of the sometimes marked declines in cholesterol levels observed at advanced ages.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cholesterol, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Forecasting, Health Status, Humans, Male, Medicare, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sex Distribution, Sex Factors, United States}, issn = {1047-2797}, doi = {10.1016/j.annepidem.2003.09.006}, author = {Manolio, Teri A and Cushman, Mary and Gottdiener, John S and Dobs, Adrian and Kuller, Lewis H and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {789, title = {The relationship of fasting serum radioimmune insulin levels to incident coronary heart disease in an insulin-treated diabetic cohort.}, journal = {J Clin Endocrinol Metab}, volume = {89}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Jun}, pages = {2852-8}, abstract = {

It is not known whether insulin levels, in the setting of insulin treatment, are an independent risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). We studied a cohort of 116 insulin-treated individuals, 65 yr or older, who were followed for 5.6-9 yr. All were free of CHD at baseline. There were 47 incident CHD events. In Cox proportional hazards modeling, with fasting immune-reactive insulin levels as a continuous variable, the hazard ratio for CHD was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). When insulin levels were divided into intervals, those in the third interval [43-150 microU/ml (258-900 pmol/liter)] had an adjusted 30\% increased relative risk (95\% confidence interval, 0.57, 2.98) compared with those in the first interval [<20 microU/ml (<120 pmol/liter)]. Those in the fourth interval [151-400 microU/ml (906-2400 pmol/liter)] had an adjusted 5.6-fold increased risk (2.3-13.1; P < 0.0001). Approximately 15\% of the cohort had such elevated insulin levels. Immune-reactive insulin levels were strongly correlated with specific insulin, proinsulin, and insulin antibody levels. Markedly elevated fasting immune-reactive insulin levels were an independent risk factor for CHD in this study of insulin-treated older adults. These observational findings should be confirmed through larger prospective studies, given their implications for insulin therapy.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Fasting, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Incidence, Insulin, Male, Radioimmunoassay, Risk Factors}, issn = {0021-972X}, doi = {10.1210/jc.2003-031822}, author = {Kronmal, Richard A and Barzilay, Joshua I and Tracy, Russell P and Savage, Peter J and Orchard, Trevor J and Burke, Gregory L} } @article {772, title = {Traditional and novel risk factors in older adults: cardiovascular risk assessment late in life.}, journal = {Am J Geriatr Cardiol}, volume = {13}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Mar-Apr}, pages = {69-80}, abstract = {

As a population-based, longitudinal study of nearly 6000 older American adults, the Cardiovascular Health Study provides an excellent opportunity to assess the roles of traditional and novel cardiovascular risk factors in the development of coronary heart disease. Cardiovascular Health Study investigators have analyzed both traditional risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, and smoking, and new risk factors, such as hemostatic factors, inflammatory markers, exposure to infectious agents, and genetic determinants. These analyses have led to several important conclusions. First, older adults without previous cardiovascular events have a tremendous burden of subclinical vascular disease, which may change how physicians view risk factor modification in this age group. Second, some traditional cardiovascular risk factors lose importance as predictors of cardiovascular disease among older adults. Third, even modest elevations in fasting blood glucose or systolic blood pressure-below the levels used to define diabetes or hypertension-may have prognostic implications. Fourth, novel cardiovascular risk factors may add further information about cardiovascular disease risk in older adults. Promising potential candidates identified in the Cardiovascular Health Study include markers of hemostatic activation, fibrinogen, factor VIII coagulant activity, C-reactive protein, and exposure to herpes simplex virus-1 and possibly chlamydia. Future Cardiovascular Health Study investigations will help to clarify which combination of traditional and newer risk factors provides the best estimate of cardiovascular risk for older adults.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Coagulation Factors, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Complications, Female, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Humans, Hypertension, Infections, Inflammation, Lipids, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Obesity, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, Smoking, United States}, issn = {1076-7460}, doi = {10.1111/j.1076-7460.2004.02123.x}, author = {Mukamal, Kenneth J and Kronmal, Richard A and Tracy, Russell P and Cushman, Mary and Siscovick, David S} } @article {820, title = {Incidence of cardiovascular disease in older Americans: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {53}, year = {2005}, month = {2005 Feb}, pages = {211-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To estimate incidence rates of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older Americans.

DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study using prospectively collected data on cardiovascular events.

SETTING: Four U.S. communities in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS).

PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred eighty-eight participants in CHS, aged 65 or older at enrollment, including 3,393 women (581 African American) and 2,495 men (343 African American).

MEASUREMENTS: At semiannual contacts, participants reported any occurrence of clinical CVD. Medical records were obtained and adjudicated to confirm diagnosis of CVD.

RESULTS: During 10 years of follow-up, incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) per 1,000 person-years was 39.6 (95\% confidence interval (CI)=36.4-43.1) in men and 22.3 (95\% CI=20.4-24.2) in women. Cumulative event rates for CHD and myocardial infarction for women aged 75 and older at baseline were similar to those for men aged 65 to 74. The overall incidence of stroke was similar for men and women (14.7 (95\% CI=13.0-16.6) and 13.7 (95\% CI=12.4-15.1) per 1,000 person-years, respectively), but the risk of stroke increased with age more rapidly in women, resulting in a greater cumulative event rate for stroke in women than in men aged 75 and older. The incidence of congestive heart failure increased 9\% with each year of age over 65 and was greater than 6\% per year in Caucasian men and women aged 85 and older at baseline. Rates were similar in African Americans and Caucasians.

CONCLUSION: The occurrence of new CVD in older Americans is high, indicating that preventive efforts need to be maintained into older ages.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Geriatric Assessment, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Sex Distribution, Survival Rate, United States}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53105.x}, author = {Arnold, Alice M and Psaty, Bruce M and Kuller, Lewis H and Burke, Gregory L and Manolio, Teri A and Fried, Linda P and Robbins, John A and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {913, title = {Body mass index is not a good predictor of bone density: results from WHI, CHS, and EPIDOS.}, journal = {J Clin Densitom}, volume = {9}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Jul-Sep}, pages = {329-34}, abstract = {

Body mass index (BMI) is often used to predict bone mineral density (BMD). This may be flawed. Large epidemiologic studies with BMI and BMD data were analyzed. Weight alone is a better predictor of BMD than BMI. Thus, when selecting individuals for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, weight should be used instead of BMI. Low body mass index (BMI) is frequently suggested as one of the factors that indicates the need for bone mineral density (BMD) screening for osteoporosis. The inclusion of the height-squared term in the denominator of this predictive factor is taken on faith or from other data, but it may not be reasonable in this case. We used data from three large epidemiologic studies to test the BMI, height, and weight as predictors of BMD: (1) the Women{\textquoteright}s Health Initiative (WHI) with 11,390 women; (2) the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) with 1,578 men and women; (3) and EPIDOS with 7,598 women. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry data on one or more BMD sites, the total hip, the femoral neck, and the lumbar spine from the three studies, as well as height and weight were examined. Correlation coefficients for BMI and weight with BMD were compared. Log transformed models were evaluated to compare the strengths of the models. The result of weight alone was a much better predictor of BMD for all sites in the three studies than BMI. Taller participants had larger BMDs than would have been predicted by BMI. In conclusion, BMIs should not be used to select individuals for BMD screening. A regression model using weight alone or weight and height is a better predictor of BMD in all three populations.

}, keywords = {Absorptiometry, Photon, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biometry, Body Height, Body Mass Index, Body Weight, Bone Density, Female, France, Humans, Male, United States}, issn = {1094-6950}, doi = {10.1016/j.jocd.2006.02.005}, author = {Robbins, John and Schott, Anne-Marie and Azari, Rahman and Kronmal, Richard} } @article {900, title = {Factors associated with geographic variations in stroke incidence among older populations in four US communities.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {37}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Aug}, pages = {1980-5}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), we previously observed lower stroke incidence in Allegheny County, PA compared with the other 3 study sites. The purpose of this study was to study possible reasons for the lower stroke incidence in Allegheny County.

METHODS: CHS participants 65 years or older who were stroke-free at baseline (n=5639) were followed between 1989 to 1990 and 2000 for the development of stroke. Risk factors at baseline and their subsequent control were compared among both groups. Site-specific hazard ratios for stroke incidence were calculated using Cox regression models.

RESULTS: The unadjusted hazard ratio for total stroke incidence in Forsyth County, NC; Sacramento County, CA; and Washington County, MD combined compared with Allegheny County, PA was 1.74 (95\% CI: 1.42, 2.14). After adjustment for age and other traditional risk factors, there was modest reduction of the excess hazard in non-Allegheny sites compared with Allegheny County (hazard ratio=1.52, 95\% CI: 1.17, 1.98). Between baseline and the seventh-year visits, control of hypertension, diabetes, lipids, smoking, atrial fibrillation and transient ischemic attack were similar across sites. White matter grade > or = 3 on the baseline brain MRI was less common in Allegheny County (25.8\% versus 36.3\%, respectively; P<0.001) and accounted for 25\% of the excess hazard in non-Allegheny sites compared with Allegheny County.

CONCLUSIONS: Site differences in stroke risk factors at baseline and subsequent control only partially explain site differences in stroke incidence. White matter grade as a possible integrated measure of exposure and control of risk factors may help in explaining geographic variations in stroke incidence.

}, keywords = {Aged, Brain, California, Female, Humans, Incidence, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/01.STR.0000231454.77745.d9}, author = {El-Saed, Aiman and Kuller, Lewis H and Newman, Anne B and Lopez, Oscar and Costantino, Joseph and McTigue, Kathleen and Cushman, Mary and Kronmal, Richard} } @article {883, title = {Genetic Susceptibility to Prostate Cancer: Prostate-specific Antigen and its Interaction with the Androgen Receptor (United States).}, journal = {Cancer Causes Control}, volume = {17}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Mar}, pages = {187-97}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether directly observed prostate-specific antigen (PSA) promoter diploid haplotype, either alone or in conjunction with androgen receptor (AR) genotype, is associated with prostate cancer risk.

METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within the US population-based Cardiovascular Health Study cohort. Incident prostate cancers were identified by linkage to cancer registry records for the years 1989-2000. We genotyped 193 cases and 391 controls for the PSA -252 G/A and -158 G/A SNPs and the AR CAG microsatellite, and developed methods to directly determine proximal PSA promoter haplotypes. Exact logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and significance levels.

RESULTS: No significant associations were observed between PSA diplotype and prostate cancer overall. Short (< 20) AR CAG repeat lengths were associated with modest increases in the risk of prostate cancer (OR, 1.46; 95\% CI, 0.97-2.19; p = 0.071) that were significant for advanced disease (OR, 1.82; 95\% CI, 1.02-3.26; p = 0.044). Men who possessed two copies of the PSA*2 (-252G/-158G) haplotype and short AR CAG repeat lengths had a 4-fold (95\% CI, 1.05-20.75; exact p = 0.040) increased risk of prostate cancer, and a 7-fold (95\% CI, 1.25-39.78; exact p = 0.026) increased risk of advanced disease.

CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that the PSA*2*2 diplotype in combination with short AR CAG alleles increases a man{\textquoteright}s risk of developing prostate cancer. These findings support an etiologic role in prostate cancer of genetic interactions between polymorphisms that increase AR transactivation strength and those that alter the regulatory regions of target genes such as PSA that are responsive to androgen stimulation.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Tumor, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genotype, Haplotypes, Humans, Male, Polymorphism, Genetic, Prostate-Specific Antigen, Prostatic Neoplasms, Receptors, Androgen, United States}, issn = {0957-5243}, doi = {10.1007/s10552-005-0454-8}, author = {Sieh, Weiva and Edwards, Karen L and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Srinouanprachanh, Sengkeo L and Farin, Fred M and Monks, Stephanie A and Kronmal, Richard A and Eaton, David L} } @article {901, title = {Geographic variations in stroke incidence and mortality among older populations in four US communities.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {37}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Aug}, pages = {1975-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. There is limited data on geographic variations in stroke incidence among older US populations who experience the majority of stroke burden. The purpose of this study was to compare stroke incidence and mortality rates in 4 US communities.

METHODS: Participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) who had no history of stroke at baseline (n=5639) were followed for 10 or 7 years in predominantly white (n=5002) and black (n=637) participants, respectively. Incident stroke was validated by a stroke adjudication committee after ascertainment at annual visits, interim telephone contacts, and review of Medicare hospitalization data.

RESULTS: The 2000 US population age and sex standardized total stroke incidence rate for all CHS participants was 17.7 per 1000 person-years (95\% CI: 15.9, 19.5). The rate was significantly lower in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania 9.6/1000 person-years (95\% CI: 7.7, 11.5) than Forsyth County, North Carolina 19.2/1000 person-years (95\% CI: 15.6, 22.8), Sacramento County, California 20.7/1000 person-years (95\% CI: 16.9, 24.5), and Washington County, Maryland 19.8/1000 person-years (95\% CI: 16.1, 23.5). The lower stroke incidence rate in Allegheny County was consistent in gender, race, and age groups. Though not statistically significant, stroke mortality was also lower in Allegheny County than other 3 sites. The 1-month case fatality rate was similar in the 4 sites for all strokes, and by stroke types.

CONCLUSIONS: Understanding geographic variations in stroke incidence may be an important step in improving preventive practices of stroke.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, California, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Stroke}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/01.STR.0000231453.98473.67}, author = {El-Saed, Aiman and Kuller, Lewis H and Newman, Anne B and Lopez, Oscar and Costantino, Joseph and McTigue, Kathleen and Cushman, Mary and Kronmal, Richard} } @article {923, title = {Mortality in pharmacologically treated older adults with diabetes: the Cardiovascular Health Study, 1989-2001.}, journal = {PLoS Med}, volume = {3}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Oct}, pages = {e400}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) confers an increased risk of mortality in young and middle-aged individuals and in women. It is uncertain, however, whether excess DM mortality continues beyond age 75 years, is related to type of hypoglycemic therapy, and whether women continue to be disproportionately affected by DM into older age.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: From the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective study of 5,888 adults, we examined 5,372 participants aged 65 y or above without DM (91.2\%), 322 with DM treated with oral hypoglycemic agents (OHGAs) (5.5\%), and 194 with DM treated with insulin (3.3\%). Participants were followed (1989-2001) for total, cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), and non-CVD/noncancer mortality. Compared with non-DM participants, those treated with OHGAs or insulin had adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for total mortality of 1.33 (95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 to 1.62) and 2.04 (95\% CI, 1.62 to 2.57); CVD mortality, 1.99 (95\% CI, 1.54 to 2.57) and 2.16 (95\% CI, 1.54 to 3.03); CHD mortality, 2.47 (95\% CI, 1.89 to 3.24) and 2.75 (95\% CI, 1.95 to 3.87); and infectious and renal mortality, 1.35 (95\% CI, 0.70 to 2.59) and 6.55 (95\% CI, 4.18 to 10.26), respectively. The interaction of age (65-74 y versus > or =75 y) with DM was not significant. Women treated with OHGAs had a similar HR for total mortality to men, but a higher HR when treated with insulin.

CONCLUSIONS: DM mortality risk remains high among older adults in the current era of medical care. Mortality risk and type of mortality differ between OHGA and insulin treatment. Women treated with insulin therapy have an especially high mortality risk. Given the high absolute CVD mortality in older people, those with DM warrant aggressive CVD risk factor reduction.

}, keywords = {Administration, Oral, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Insulin, Male, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution}, issn = {1549-1676}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.0030400}, author = {Kronmal, Richard A and Barzilay, Joshua I and Smith, Nicholas L and Psaty, Bruce M and Kuller, Lewis H and Burke, Gregory L and Furberg, Curt} } @article {914, title = {New-onset diabetes and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Diabetes Care}, volume = {29}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Sep}, pages = {2012-7}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular risk associated with new-onset diabetes is not well characterized. We hypothesized that risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality would be similar among participants with and without new-onset diabetes in the first years of follow-up and rise over time for new-onset diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) is a longitudinal study of cardiovascular risk factors in adults aged > or =65 years. We used CHS participants to define a cohort (n = 282) with new-onset diabetes during 11 years of follow-up. New-onset diabetes was defined by initiation of antidiabetes medication or by fasting plasma glucose >125 mg/dl among CHS participants without diabetes at study entry. Three CHS participants without diabetes were matched for age, sex, and race to each participant with new-onset diabetes at the time of diabetes identification (n = 837). Survival analysis provided adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS: During a median of 5.9 years of follow-up, there were 352 deaths, of which 41\% were cardiovascular. In adjusted analyses, new-onset diabetes was associated with an HR of 1.9 (95\% CI 1.4-2.5) for all-cause and 2.2 (1.4-3.4) for cardiovascular mortality compared with no diabetes. Mortality risks were elevated within 2 years of onset, especially cardiovascular risk (4.3 [95\% CI 1.7-10.8]), and did not increase over time.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that there may be a mortality differential soon after diabetes onset in older adults and suggest that long-term macrovascular damage from atherosclerosis may not be primarily responsible for increased risk.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atherosclerosis, Blood Glucose, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Complications, Diabetes Mellitus, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Risk Factors, Survival Rate, Time Factors}, issn = {0149-5992}, doi = {10.2337/dc06-0574}, author = {Smith, Nicholas L and Barzilay, Joshua I and Kronmal, Richard and Lumley, Thomas and Enquobahrie, Daniel and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {959, title = {Alcohol consumption and lipoprotein subclasses in older adults.}, journal = {J Clin Endocrinol Metab}, volume = {92}, year = {2007}, month = {2007 Jul}, pages = {2559-66}, abstract = {

CONTEXT: Limited evidence suggests that alcohol intake may be associated with lipoprotein subclass distribution, which could mediate its relationship with coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to determine the relationship of alcohol intake with lipoprotein particle subclasses.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The study included a cross-sectional analysis of 1850 participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study aged 65 yr and older and free of clinical cardiovascular disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Lipoprotein subclass distribution was measured with nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, according to self-reported alcohol intake.

RESULTS: Alcohol intake was associated with total low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles in a U-shaped manner. Consumers of one or more drinks per week had the highest number of large LDL particles, whereas consumers of 7-13 drinks per week had the lowest number of small LDL particles. Alcohol intake was strongly positively associated with large- and medium-sized high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles but had an inverse relationship with concentrations of small HDL particles and small- and medium-sized very-low-density lipoprotein particles. Average particle sizes of all three lipoproteins were positively associated with alcohol intake. Associations were generally stronger among women than men but in similar directions. Beverage type did not consistently modify these findings.

CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake is associated with less total LDL particles, lower levels of small LDL, HDL, and very-low-density lipoprotein particles, and higher levels of large LDL and medium- and large-sized HDL particles in older adults free of prevalent clinical cardiovascular disease.

}, keywords = {Aged, Alcohol Drinking, Cholesterol, Cholesterol, HDL, Cholesterol, LDL, Cholesterol, VLDL, Coronary Disease, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, Male, Prevalence, Risk Factors}, issn = {0021-972X}, doi = {10.1210/jc.2006-2422}, author = {Mukamal, Kenneth J and Mackey, Rachel H and Kuller, Lewis H and Tracy, Russell P and Kronmal, Richard A and Mittleman, Murray A and Siscovick, David S} } @article {922, title = {Leukocyte telomere length and cardiovascular disease in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {165}, year = {2007}, month = {2007 Jan 01}, pages = {14-21}, abstract = {

The telomere length of replicating somatic cells is inversely correlated with age and has been reported to be associated cross-sectionally with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leukocyte telomere length, as expressed by mean terminal restriction fragment (TRF) length, was measured in 419 randomly selected participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study, comprising a community-dwelling cohort recruited in four US communities. The authors investigated associations between TRF length and selected measures of subclinical CVD/risk factors for CVD (data were collected at the 1992/1993 clinic visit) and incident CVD (ascertained through June 2002). In these participants (average age = 74.2 years (standard deviation, 5.2)), mean TRF length was 6.3 kilobase pairs (standard deviation, 0.62). Significant or borderline inverse associations were found between TRF length and diabetes, glucose, insulin, diastolic blood pressure, carotid intima-media thickness, and interleukin-6. Associations with body size and C-reactive protein were modified by gender and age, occurring only in men and in participants aged 73 years or younger. In younger (but not older) participants, each shortened kilobase pair of TRF corresponded with a threefold increased risk of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio = 3.08, 95\% confidence interval: 1.22, 7.73) and stroke (hazard ratio = 3.22, 95\% confidence interval: 1.29, 8.02). These results support the hypotheses that telomere attrition may be related to diseases of aging through mechanisms involving oxidative stress, inflammation, and progression to CVD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, DNA, Female, Humans, Inflammation, Leukocytes, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Oxidative Stress, Pilot Projects, Polymorphism, Restriction Fragment Length, Risk, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Telomere}, issn = {0002-9262}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwj346}, author = {Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Kronmal, Richard A and Gardner, Jeffrey P and Psaty, Bruce M and Jenny, Nancy S and Tracy, Russell P and Walston, Jeremy and Kimura, Masyuki and Aviv, Abraham} } @article {952, title = {The relationship of heart rate and heart rate variability to non-diabetic fasting glucose levels and the metabolic syndrome: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Diabet Med}, volume = {24}, year = {2007}, month = {2007 Aug}, pages = {855-63}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Increased heart rate (HR) and diminished heart rate variability (HRV) are signs of early cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy. We tested the hypotheses that increased HR and diminished HRV are present in people: (i) with increased fasting glucose (FG) levels not in the range of diabetes mellitus (DM), and (ii) in people with the metabolic syndrome (MetS) independent of elevated FG levels.

METHODS: HR and HRV were determined in 1267 adults (mean age 72 years) who had Holter monitoring and FG measures: 536 had normal FG levels (NORM, FG 4.5-5.5 mmol/l), 363 had mildly impaired FG (IFG-1, FG 5.6-6.0 mmol/l), 182 had significantly impaired FG (IFG-2, FG 6.1-6.9 mmol/l) and 178 had DM (FG > 6.9 mmol/l or use of glucose-lowering agents/insulin). HR and HRV in NORM/IFG-1 was further compared by the number of components of the MetS and compared by the presence or absence of MetS in IFG-2/DM.

RESULTS: HRV indices were more impaired in IFG-2 and DM than in NORM or IFG-1. There were few differences in HRV indices between NORM and IFG-1 or between IFG-2 and DM. In NORM/IFG-1 participants, having > or = 2 components of the MetS was associated with a greater decrease in HRV compared with having no or one components. In IFG-2/DM participants, MetS was associated with decreased HRV compared with no MetS.

CONCLUSIONS: Increased HR and diminished HRV occur in the non-diabetic FG range. Diminished HRV is associated with the MetS, independent of FG levels. Both these results suggest that factors associated with increasing non-diabetic FG levels and the MetS play a role in the onset of cardiac autonomic impairment.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Arrhythmias, Cardiac, Blood Glucose, Fasting, Female, Glucose Intolerance, Heart Rate, Humans, Male, Metabolic Syndrome, Risk Factors}, issn = {0742-3071}, doi = {10.1111/j.1464-5491.2007.02163.x}, author = {Stein, P K and Barzilay, J I and Domitrovich, P P and Chaves, P M and Gottdiener, J S and Heckbert, S R and Kronmal, R A} } @article {1048, title = {Inflammatory markers and longitudinal lung function decline in the elderly.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {168}, year = {2008}, month = {2008 Sep 15}, pages = {602-10}, abstract = {

Longitudinal studies examining associations of the inflammatory markers fibrinogen and C-reactive protein (CRP) with lung function decline are sparse. The authors examined whether elevated fibrinogen and CRP levels were associated with greater longitudinal lung function decline in the elderly. The Cardiovascular Health Study measured fibrinogen and CRP in 5,790 Whites and African Americans from four US communities aged 65 years or older in 1989-1990 or 1992-1993. Spirometry was performed in 1989-1990 and 4, 7, and 16 years later. Fibrinogen and CRP were inversely associated with lung function at baseline after adjustment for multiple potential confounders. In mixed models, the rate of decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1))/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio with increasing age was faster among those with higher baseline fibrinogen (-0.032\%/year per standard deviation higher fibrinogen (95\% confidence interval: -0.057, -0.0074)) but not among those with higher CRP (-0.0037\%/year per standard deviation higher CRP (95\% confidence interval: -0.013, 0.0056)). Longitudinal analyses for FEV(1) and FVC yielded results in the direction opposite of that hypothesized, possibly because of the high mortality rate and strong inverse association of FEV(1) and FVC but not FEV(1)/FVC with mortality. An alternative approach to missing data yielded similar results. In conclusion, higher levels of fibrinogen, but not CRP, independently predicted greater FEV(1)/FVC decline in the elderly.

}, keywords = {Aged, C-Reactive Protein, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Fibrinogen, Forced Expiratory Volume, Geriatric Assessment, Humans, Logistic Models, Longitudinal Studies, Lung Volume Measurements, Male, Multicenter Studies as Topic, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Spirometry}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwn174}, author = {Jiang, Rui and Burke, Gregory L and Enright, Paul L and Newman, Anne B and Margolis, Helene G and Cushman, Mary and Tracy, Russell P and Wang, Yuanjia and Kronmal, Richard A and Barr, R Graham} } @article {1138, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is a major predictor of the development of atrial fibrillation: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {120}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Nov 03}, pages = {1768-74}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac rhythm abnormality, is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenditures. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure, AF, and mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The relation between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and AF was studied in 5445 Cardiovascular Health Study participants with the use of relative risk regression for predicting prevalent AF and Cox proportional hazards for predicting incident AF. NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with prevalent AF, with an unadjusted prevalence ratio of 128 for the highest quintile (95\% confidence interval, 17.9 to 913.3; P<0.001) and adjusted prevalence ratio of 147 for the highest quintile (95\% confidence interval, 20.4 to 1064.3; P<0.001) compared with the lowest. After a median follow-up of 10 years (maximum of 16 years), there were 1126 cases of incident AF (a rate of 2.2 per 100 person-years). NT-proBNP was highly predictive of incident AF, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 5.2 (95\% confidence interval, 4.3 to 6.4; P<0.001) for the development of AF for the highest quintile compared with the lowest; for the same contrast, NT-proBNP remained the strongest predictor of incident AF after adjustment for an extensive number of covariates, including age, sex, medication use, blood pressure, echocardiographic parameters, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.0 (95\% confidence interval, 3.2 to 5.0; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based population of older adults, NT-proBNP was a remarkable predictor of incident AF, independent of any other previously described risk factor.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Humans, Immunoassay, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.873265}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Ellinor, Patrick T and Heckbert, Susan R and Christenson, Robert H and DeFilippi, Christopher and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {1124, title = {Total and cause-specific mortality in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci}, volume = {64}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Dec}, pages = {1251-61}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Few cohort studies have adequate numbers of carefully reviewed deaths to allow an analysis of unique and shared risk factors for cause-specific mortality. Shared risk factors could be targeted for prevention of premature death and the study of longevity.

METHODS: A total of 5,888 community-dwelling persons aged 65 years or older living in four communities in the United States participated in the Cardiovascular Health Study cohort. Participants were initially recruited from 1989 to 1990; an additional 687 black participants were recruited in 1992-1993. The average length of follow-up was 16 years. Total and cause-specific mortality, including cardiovascular disease, stroke, cancer, dementia, pulmonary disease, infection, and other cause, were examined as outcomes. Variables previously associated with total mortality were examined for each cause of death using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS: Multiple risk factors were related to total mortality. When examining specific causes, many factors were related to cardiovascular death, whereas fewer were related to other causes. For most causes, risk factors were specific for that cause. For example, apolipoprotein E epsilon4 was strongly associated for dementia death and forced vital capacity with pulmonary death. Age, male sex, markers of inflammation, and cognitive function were related to multiple causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS: In these older adults, associations of risk factors with a given cause of death were related to specific deficits in that same organ system. Inflammation may represent a common pathway to all causes of death.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Chronic Disease, Cohort Studies, Female, Geriatric Assessment, Health Surveys, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Probability, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Severity of Illness Index, Sex Factors, Survival Analysis, United States}, issn = {1758-535X}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glp127}, author = {Newman, Anne B and Sachs, Michael C and Arnold, Alice M and Fried, Linda P and Kronmal, Richard and Cushman, Mary and Psaty, Bruce M and Harris, Tamara B and Robbins, John A and Burke, Gregory L and Kuller, Lewis H and Lumley, Thomas} } @article {1192, title = {Genome-wide association identifies OBFC1 as a locus involved in human leukocyte telomere biology.}, journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A}, volume = {107}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 May 18}, pages = {9293-8}, abstract = {

Telomeres are engaged in a host of cellular functions, and their length is regulated by multiple genes. Telomere shortening, in the course of somatic cell replication, ultimately leads to replicative senescence. In humans, rare mutations in genes that regulate telomere length have been identified in monogenic diseases such as dyskeratosis congenita and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, which are associated with shortened leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and increased risk for aplastic anemia. Shortened LTL is observed in a host of aging-related complex genetic diseases and is associated with diminished survival in the elderly. We report results of a genome-wide association study of LTL in a consortium of four observational studies (n = 3,417 participants with LTL and genome-wide genotyping). SNPs in the regions of the oligonucleotide/oligosaccharide-binding folds containing one gene (OBFC1; rs4387287; P = 3.9 x 10(-9)) and chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 4 gene (CXCR4; rs4452212; P = 2.9 x 10(-8)) were associated with LTL at a genome-wide significance level (P < 5 x 10(-8)). We attempted replication of the top SNPs at these loci through de novo genotyping of 1,893 additional individuals and in silico lookup in another observational study (n = 2,876), and we confirmed the association findings for OBFC1 but not CXCR4. In addition, we confirmed the telomerase RNA component (TERC) as a gene associated with LTL (P = 1.1 x 10(-5)). The identification of OBFC1 through genome-wide association as a locus for interindividual variation in LTL in the general population advances the understanding of telomere biology in humans and may provide insights into aging-related disorders linked to altered LTL dynamics.

}, keywords = {Cohort Studies, Genome-Wide Association Study, Genotype, Humans, Leukocytes, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Receptors, CXCR4, Telomere, Telomere-Binding Proteins}, issn = {1091-6490}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0911494107}, author = {Levy, Daniel and Neuhausen, Susan L and Hunt, Steven C and Kimura, Masayuki and Hwang, Shih-Jen and Chen, Wei and Bis, Joshua C and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Smith, Erin and Johnson, Andrew D and Gardner, Jeffrey P and Srinivasan, Sathanur R and Schork, Nicholas and Rotter, Jerome I and Herbig, Utz and Psaty, Bruce M and Sastrasinh, Malinee and Murray, Sarah S and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Province, Michael A and Glazer, Nicole L and Lu, Xiaobin and Cao, Xiaojian and Kronmal, Richard and Mangino, Massimo and Soranzo, Nicole and Spector, Tim D and Berenson, Gerald S and Aviv, Abraham} } @article {1247, title = {Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {170}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Nov 22}, pages = {1909-17}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.

METHODS: We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2\%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.

RESULTS: We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95\% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95\% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0\% (AGES) and 63.6\% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64\% of risk.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Algorithms, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Pressure, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Electrocardiography, Europe, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Systole, United States}, issn = {1538-3679}, doi = {10.1001/archinternmed.2010.434}, author = {Schnabel, Renate B and Aspelund, Thor and Li, Guo and Sullivan, Lisa M and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Harris, Tamara B and Pencina, Michael J and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Levy, Daniel and Kannel, William B and Wang, Thomas J and Kronmal, Richard A and Wolf, Philip A and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Psaty, Bruce M and Benjamin, Emelia J and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R} } @article {1289, title = {Hospitalization for infection and risk of acute ischemic stroke: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {42}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Jul}, pages = {1851-6}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little is known about the acute precipitants of ischemic stroke, although evidence suggests infections contribute to risk. We hypothesized that acute hospitalization for infection is associated with the short-term risk of stroke.

METHODS: The case-crossover design was used to compare hospitalization for infection during case periods (90, 30, or 14 days before an incident ischemic stroke) and control periods (equivalent time periods exactly 1 or 2 years before stroke) in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort of 5888 elderly participants from 4 US sites. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95\% confidence intervals (95\% CIs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression. Confirmatory analyses assessed hazard ratios of stroke from Cox regression models, with hospitalization for infection as a time-varying exposure.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 669 incident ischemic strokes were observed in participants without a baseline history of stroke. Hospitalization for infection was more likely during case than control time periods; for 90 days before stroke, OR=3.4 (95\% CI, 1.8 to 6.5). The point estimates of risks were higher when we examined shorter intervals: for 30 days, OR=7.3 (95\% CI, 1.9 to 40.9), and for 14 days, OR=8.0 (95\% CI, 1.7 to 77.3). In survival analyses, risk of stroke was associated with hospitalization for infection in the preceding 90 days, adjusted hazard ratio=2.4 (95\% CI, 1.6 to 3.4).

CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization for infection is associated with a short-term increased risk of stroke, with higher risks observed for shorter intervals preceding stroke.

}, keywords = {Bacterial Infections, Brain Ischemia, Cardiology, Cohort Studies, Cross-Over Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Odds Ratio, Proportional Hazards Models, Regression Analysis, Risk, Stroke, Time Factors}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.608588}, author = {Elkind, Mitchell S V and Carty, Cara L and O{\textquoteright}Meara, Ellen S and Lumley, Thomas and Lefkowitz, David and Kronmal, Richard A and Longstreth, W T} } @article {1265, title = {Leukocyte telomere length and mortality in the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci}, volume = {66}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Apr}, pages = {421-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is related to diseases of aging, but studies of mortality have been inconsistent.

METHODS: We evaluated LTL in relation to total mortality and specific cause of death in 1,136 participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study who provided blood samples in 1992-1993 and survived through 1997-1998. LTL was measured by Southern blots of the terminal restriction fragments. Cause of death was classified by a committee of physicians reviewing death certificates, medical records, and informant interviews.

RESULTS: A total of 468 (41.2\%) deaths occurred over 6.1 years of follow-up in participants with mean age of 73.9 years (SD 4.7), 65.4\% female, and 14.8\% African American. Although increased age and male gender were associated with shorter LTLs, African Americans had significantly longer LTLs independent of age and sex (p < .001). Adjusted for age, sex, and race, persons with the shortest quartile of LTL were 60\% more likely to die during follow-up than those within the longest quartile (hazard ratio: 1.61, 95\% confidence interval: 1.22-2.12, p = .001). The association remained after adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Evaluations of cause of death found LTL to be related to deaths due to an infectious disease etiology (hazard ratio: 2.80, 95\% confidence interval: 1.32-5.94, p = .007), whereas a borderline association was found for cardiac deaths (hazard ratio: 1.82, 95\% confidence interval: 0.95-3.49, p = .07) in adjusted models. Risk estimates for deaths due to cancer, dementia, and ischemic stroke were not significant.

CONCLUSION: These data weakly corroborate prior findings of associations between LTL and mortality in the elderly.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Body Mass Index, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Comorbidity, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Hypertension, Leukocytes, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Prospective Studies, Smoking, Stroke, Telomere}, issn = {1758-535X}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glq224}, author = {Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Kronmal, Richard A and Kimura, Masayuki and Gardner, Jeffrey P and Psaty, Bruce M and Jenny, Nancy S and Tracy, Russell P and Hardikar, Sheetal and Aviv, Abraham} } @article {1242, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with sudden cardiac death risk: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {8}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Feb}, pages = {228-33}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD), the cause of 250,000-450,000 deaths per year, is a major public health problem. The majority of those affected do not have a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure and mortality as well as with sudden death in women.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and SCD in the Cardiovascular Health Study population.

METHODS: The risk of SCD associated with baseline NT-proBNP was examined in 5,447 participants. Covariate-adjusted Cox model regressions were used to estimate the hazard ratios of developing SCD as a function of baseline NT-proBNP.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.5 years (maximum 16), there were 289 cases of SCD. Higher NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with SCD, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 4.2 (95\% confidence interval [2.9, 6.1]; P <.001) in the highest quintile compared with in the lowest. NT-proBNP remained associated with SCD even after adjustment for numerous clinical characteristics and risk factors (age, sex, race, and other associated conditions), with an adjusted hazard ratio for the fifth versus the first quintile of 2.5 (95\% confidence interval [1.6, 3.8]; P <.001).

CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP provides information regarding the risk of SCD in a community-based population of older adults, beyond other traditional risk factors. This biomarker may ultimately prove useful in targeting the population at risk with aggressive medical management of comorbid conditions.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution, Time Factors, United States}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2010.10.038}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Sotoodehnia, Nona and DeFilippi, Christopher and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {1407, title = {The impact of height on the risk of atrial fibrillation: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Eur Heart J}, volume = {33}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Nov}, pages = {2709-17}, abstract = {

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia. Increased body size has been associated with AF, but the relationship is not well understood. In this study, we examined the effect of increased height on the risk of AF and explore potential mediators and implications for clinical practice.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined data from 5860 individuals taking part in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a cohort study of older US adults followed for a median of 13.6 (women) and 10.3 years (men). Multivariate linear models and age-stratified Cox proportional hazards and risk models were used, with focus on the effect of height on both prevalent and incident AF. Among 684 (22.6\%) and 568 (27.1\%) incident cases in women and men, respectively, greater height was significantly associated with AF risk [hazard ratio (HR)(women) per 10 cm 1.32, confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.50, P < 0.0001; HR(men) per 10 cm 1.26, CI 1.11-1.44, P < 0.0001]. The association was such that the incremental risk from sex was completely attenuated by the inclusion of height (for men, HR 1.48, CI 1.32-1.65, without height, and HR 0.94, CI 0.85-1.20, with height included). Inclusion of height in the Framingham model for incident AF improved discrimination. In sequential models, however, we found minimal attenuation of the risk estimates for AF with adjustment for left ventricular (LV) mass and left atrial (LA) dimension. The associations of LA and LV size measurements with AF risk were weakened when indexed to height.

CONCLUSION: Independent from sex, increased height is significantly associated with the risk of AF.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Body Height, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Humans, Male, Sex Factors, United States}, issn = {1522-9645}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehs301}, author = {Rosenberg, Michael A and Patton, Kristen K and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Karas, Maria G and Kizer, Jorge R and Zimetbaum, Peter J and Chang, James D and Siscovick, David and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A and Heckbert, Susan R and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {1375, title = {Telomere-associated polymorphisms correlate with cardiovascular disease mortality in Caucasian women: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Mech Ageing Dev}, volume = {133}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 May}, pages = {275-81}, abstract = {

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, it is unclear if LTL has an etiologic role in CVD. To gain insight into the LTL and CVD relationship, a cohort study of CVD mortality and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in OBFC1 and TERC, genes related to LTL, was conducted among 3271 Caucasian participants ages >=65 years enrolled 1989-1990 in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Leukocyte DNA was genotyped for SNPs in OBFC1 (rs4387287 and rs9419958) and TERC (rs3772190) that were previously associated with LTL through genome-wide association studies. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95\% confidence intervals (CIs). The OBFC1 SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.99), and both SNPs were similarly associated with CVD mortality in women. For women, there was a decreased risk of CVD death associated with the minor allele (rs4387287), HR=0.7; 95\% CI: 0.5-0.9 (CC vs. AC) and HR=0.5; 95\% CI: 0.20-1.4 (CC vs. AA) (P-trend <0.01). For men there was no association, HR=1.0; 95\% CI: 0.7-1.3 (CC vs. AC) and HR=1.7; 95\% CI: 0.8-3.6 (CC vs. AA) (P-trend=0.64). These findings support the hypothesis that telomere biology and associated genes may play a role in CVD-related death, particularly among women.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Humans, Leukocytes, Male, Polymorphism, Genetic, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Risk, RNA, Sex Factors, Telomerase, Telomere}, issn = {1872-6216}, doi = {10.1016/j.mad.2012.03.002}, author = {Burnett-Hartman, Andrea N and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Kronmal, Richard A and Psaty, Bruce M and Jenny, Nancy S and Bis, Josh C and Tracy, Russ P and Kimura, Masayuki and Aviv, Abraham} } @article {6001, title = {Blood pressure variability and the risk of all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident stroke in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am J Hypertens}, volume = {26}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Oct}, pages = {1210-7}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have linked variability in visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure (SBP) to risk of mortality and stroke, independent of the effect of mean SBP level. This study aimed to evaluate whether variability in SBP is associated with all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction (MI), and incident stroke, independent of mean SBP or trends in SBP levels over time.

METHODS: The Cardiovascular Health Study is a longitudinal cohort study of vascular risk factors and disease in the elderly. Participants who attended their first 5 annual clinic visits and experienced no event before the 5th visit were eligible (n = 3,852). Primary analyses were restricted to participants not using antihypertensive medications throughout the first 5 clinic visits (n = 1,642). Intraindividual SBP variables were defined using each participant{\textquoteright}s 5-visit blood pressure measures. Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) per SD increase in intraindividual SBP variability, adjusted for intraindividual SBP mean and change over time.

RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of 9.9 years, there were 844 deaths, 203 MIs, and 195 strokes. Intraindividual SBP variability was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.13; 95\% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.21) and of incident MI (HR = 1.20; 95\%CI = 1.06-1.36), independent of the effect from adjustment factors. Intraindividual SBP variability was not associated with risk of stroke (HR = 1.03; 95\% CI = 0.89-1.21).

CONCLUSIONS: Long-term visit-to-visit SBP variability was independently associated with a higher risk of subsequent mortality and MI but not stroke. More research is needed to determine the relationship of BP variability with cardiovascular risk and the clinical implications.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Mortality, Myocardial Infarction, Risk, Stroke, United States}, issn = {1941-7225}, doi = {10.1093/ajh/hpt092}, author = {Suchy-Dicey, Astrid M and Wallace, Erin R and Mitchell, S V Elkind and Aguilar, Maria and Gottesman, Rebecca F and Rice, Kenneth and Kronmal, Richard and Psaty, Bruce M and Longstreth, W T} } @article {5997, title = {Effects of respiratory and non-respiratory factors on disability among older adults with airway obstruction: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {COPD}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Oct}, pages = {588-96}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: High rates of disability associated with chronic airway obstruction may be caused by impaired pulmonary function, pulmonary symptoms, other chronic diseases, or systemic inflammation.

METHODS: We analyzed data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a longitudinal cohort of 5888 older adults. Categories of lung function (normal; restricted; borderline, mild-moderate, and severe obstruction) were delineated by baseline spirometry (without bronchodilator). Disability-free years were calculated as total years alive and without self-report of difficulty performing \&γτ;1 Instrumental Activities of Daily Living over 6 years of follow-up. Using linear regression, we compared disability-free years by lung disease category, adjusting for demographic factors, body mass index, smoking, cognition, and other chronic co-morbidities. Among participants with airflow obstruction, we examined the association of respiratory factors (FEV1 and dyspnea) and non-respiratory factors (ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, muscle weakness, osteoporosis, depression and cognitive impairment) on disability-free years.

RESULTS: The average disability free years were 4.0 out of a possible 6 years. Severe obstruction was associated with 1 fewer disability-free year compared to normal spirometry in the adjusted model. For the 1,048 participants with airway obstruction, both respiratory factors (FEV1 and dyspnea) and non-respiratory factors (heart disease, coronary artery disease, diabetes, depression, osteoporosis, cognitive function, and weakness) were associated with decreased disability-free years.

CONCLUSIONS: Severe obstruction is associated with greater disability compared to patients with normal spirometery. Both respiratory and non-respiratory factors contribute to disability in older adults with abnormal spirometry.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Cognition Disorders, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Depression, Diabetes Mellitus, Disease Progression, Dyspnea, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Linear Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Muscle Weakness, Myocardial Ischemia, Osteoporosis, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Severity of Illness Index, Spirometry}, issn = {1541-2563}, doi = {10.3109/15412555.2013.781148}, author = {Locke, Emily and Thielke, Stephen and Diehr, Paula and Wilsdon, Anthony G and Barr, R Graham and Hansel, Nadia and Kapur, Vishesh K and Krishnan, Jerry and Enright, Paul and Heckbert, Susan R and Kronmal, Richard A and Fan, Vincent S} } @article {8015, title = {Identification of heart rate-associated loci and their effects on cardiac conduction and rhythm disorders.}, journal = {Nat Genet}, volume = {45}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Jun}, pages = {621-31}, abstract = {

Elevated resting heart rate is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. In a 2-stage meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in up to 181,171 individuals, we identified 14 new loci associated with heart rate and confirmed associations with all 7 previously established loci. Experimental downregulation of gene expression in Drosophila melanogaster and Danio rerio identified 20 genes at 11 loci that are relevant for heart rate regulation and highlight a role for genes involved in signal transmission, embryonic cardiac development and the pathophysiology of dilated cardiomyopathy, congenital heart failure and/or sudden cardiac death. In addition, genetic susceptibility to increased heart rate is associated with altered cardiac conduction and reduced risk of sick sinus syndrome, and both heart rate-increasing and heart rate-decreasing variants associate with risk of atrial fibrillation. Our findings provide fresh insights into the mechanisms regulating heart rate and identify new therapeutic targets.

}, keywords = {Animals, Arrhythmias, Cardiac, Gene Frequency, Genetic Loci, Genome-Wide Association Study, Heart Conduction System, Heart Rate, Humans, Metabolic Networks and Pathways, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Quantitative Trait Loci}, issn = {1546-1718}, doi = {10.1038/ng.2610}, author = {den Hoed, Marcel and Eijgelsheim, Mark and Esko, T{\~o}nu and Brundel, Bianca J J M and Peal, David S and Evans, David M and Nolte, Ilja M and Segr{\`e}, Ayellet V and Holm, Hilma and Handsaker, Robert E and Westra, Harm-Jan and Johnson, Toby and Isaacs, Aaron and Yang, Jian and Lundby, Alicia and Zhao, Jing Hua and Kim, Young Jin and Go, Min Jin and Almgren, Peter and Bochud, Murielle and Boucher, Gabrielle and Cornelis, Marilyn C and Gudbjartsson, Daniel and Hadley, David and van der Harst, Pim and Hayward, Caroline and den Heijer, Martin and Igl, Wilmar and Jackson, Anne U and Kutalik, Zolt{\'a}n and Luan, Jian{\textquoteright}an and Kemp, John P and Kristiansson, Kati and Ladenvall, Claes and Lorentzon, Mattias and Montasser, May E and Njajou, Omer T and O{\textquoteright}Reilly, Paul F and Padmanabhan, Sandosh and St Pourcain, Beate and Rankinen, Tuomo and Salo, Perttu and Tanaka, Toshiko and Timpson, Nicholas J and Vitart, Veronique and Waite, Lindsay and Wheeler, William and Zhang, Weihua and Draisma, Harmen H M and Feitosa, Mary F and Kerr, Kathleen F and Lind, Penelope A and Mihailov, Evelin and Onland-Moret, N Charlotte and Song, Ci and Weedon, Michael N and Xie, Weijia and Yengo, Loic and Absher, Devin and Albert, Christine M and Alonso, Alvaro and Arking, Dan E and de Bakker, Paul I W and Balkau, Beverley and Barlassina, Cristina and Benaglio, Paola and Bis, Joshua C and Bouatia-Naji, Nabila and Brage, S{\o}ren and Chanock, Stephen J and Chines, Peter S and Chung, Mina and Darbar, Dawood and Dina, Christian and D{\"o}rr, Marcus and Elliott, Paul and Felix, Stephan B and Fischer, Krista and Fuchsberger, Christian and de Geus, Eco J C and Goyette, Philippe and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Harris, Tamara B and Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa and Havulinna, Aki S and Heckbert, Susan R and Hicks, Andrew A and Hofman, Albert and Holewijn, Suzanne and Hoogstra-Berends, Femke and Hottenga, Jouke-Jan and Jensen, Majken K and Johansson, Asa and Junttila, Juhani and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Kanon, Bart and Ketkar, Shamika and Khaw, Kay-Tee and Knowles, Joshua W and Kooner, Angrad S and Kors, Jan A and Kumari, Meena and Milani, Lili and Laiho, P{\"a}ivi and Lakatta, Edward G and Langenberg, Claudia and Leusink, Maarten and Liu, Yongmei and Luben, Robert N and Lunetta, Kathryn L and Lynch, Stacey N and Markus, Marcello R P and Marques-Vidal, Pedro and Mateo Leach, Irene and McArdle, Wendy L and McCarroll, Steven A and Medland, Sarah E and Miller, Kathryn A and Montgomery, Grant W and Morrison, Alanna C and M{\"u}ller-Nurasyid, Martina and Navarro, Pau and Nelis, Mari and O{\textquoteright}Connell, Jeffrey R and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Christopher J and Ong, Ken K and Newman, Anne B and Peters, Annette and Polasek, Ozren and Pouta, Anneli and Pramstaller, Peter P and Psaty, Bruce M and Rao, Dabeeru C and Ring, Susan M and Rossin, Elizabeth J and Rudan, Diana and Sanna, Serena and Scott, Robert A and Sehmi, Jaban S and Sharp, Stephen and Shin, Jordan T and Singleton, Andrew B and Smith, Albert V and Soranzo, Nicole and Spector, Tim D and Stewart, Chip and Stringham, Heather M and Tarasov, Kirill V and Uitterlinden, Andr{\'e} G and Vandenput, Liesbeth and Hwang, Shih-Jen and Whitfield, John B and Wijmenga, Cisca and Wild, Sarah H and Willemsen, Gonneke and Wilson, James F and Witteman, Jacqueline C M and Wong, Andrew and Wong, Quenna and Jamshidi, Yalda and Zitting, Paavo and Boer, Jolanda M A and Boomsma, Dorret I and Borecki, Ingrid B and van Duijn, Cornelia M and Ekelund, Ulf and Forouhi, Nita G and Froguel, Philippe and Hingorani, Aroon and Ingelsson, Erik and Kivimaki, Mika and Kronmal, Richard A and Kuh, Diana and Lind, Lars and Martin, Nicholas G and Oostra, Ben A and Pedersen, Nancy L and Quertermous, Thomas and Rotter, Jerome I and van der Schouw, Yvonne T and Verschuren, W M Monique and Walker, Mark and Albanes, Demetrius and Arnar, David O and Assimes, Themistocles L and Bandinelli, Stefania and Boehnke, Michael and de Boer, Rudolf A and Bouchard, Claude and Caulfield, W L Mark and Chambers, John C and Curhan, Gary and Cusi, Daniele and Eriksson, Johan and Ferrucci, Luigi and van Gilst, Wiek H and Glorioso, Nicola and de Graaf, Jacqueline and Groop, Leif and Gyllensten, Ulf and Hsueh, Wen-Chi and Hu, Frank B and Huikuri, Heikki V and Hunter, David J and Iribarren, Carlos and Isomaa, Bo and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and Jula, Antti and K{\"a}h{\"o}nen, Mika and Kiemeney, Lambertus A and van der Klauw, Melanie M and Kooner, Jaspal S and Kraft, Peter and Iacoviello, Licia and Lehtim{\"a}ki, Terho and Lokki, Marja-Liisa L and Mitchell, Braxton D and Navis, Gerjan and Nieminen, Markku S and Ohlsson, Claes and Poulter, Neil R and Qi, Lu and Raitakari, Olli T and Rimm, Eric B and Rioux, John D and Rizzi, Federica and Rudan, Igor and Salomaa, Veikko and Sever, Peter S and Shields, Denis C and Shuldiner, Alan R and Sinisalo, Juha and Stanton, Alice V and Stolk, Ronald P and Strachan, David P and Tardif, Jean-Claude and Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur and Tuomilehto, Jaako and van Veldhuisen, Dirk J and Virtamo, Jarmo and Viikari, Jorma and Vollenweider, Peter and Waeber, G{\'e}rard and Widen, Elisabeth and Cho, Yoon Shin and Olsen, Jesper V and Visscher, Peter M and Willer, Cristen and Franke, Lude and Erdmann, Jeanette and Thompson, John R and Pfeufer, Arne and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Newton-Cheh, Christopher and Ellinor, Patrick T and Stricker, Bruno H Ch and Metspalu, Andres and Perola, Markus and Beckmann, Jacques S and Smith, George Davey and Stefansson, Kari and Wareham, Nicholas J and Munroe, Patricia B and Sibon, Ody C M and Milan, David J and Snieder, Harold and Samani, Nilesh J and Loos, Ruth J F} } @article {5878, title = {Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {2}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Mar 18}, pages = {e000102}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19\% African Americans, 81\% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95\% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95\% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95\% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95\% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95\% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.

CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Iceland, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Netherlands, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Smoking, United States}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.112.000102}, author = {Alonso, Alvaro and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Stepas, Katherine A and Pencina, Michael J and Moser, Carlee B and Sinner, Moritz F and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Ellinor, Patrick T and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Benjamin, Emelia J} } @article {6601, title = {B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein in the prediction of atrial fibrillation risk: the CHARGE-AF Consortium of community-based cohort studies.}, journal = {Europace}, volume = {16}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Oct}, pages = {1426-33}, abstract = {

AIMS: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95\% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95\% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5\%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95\% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS.

CONCLUSION: B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Europe, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1532-2092}, doi = {10.1093/europace/euu175}, author = {Sinner, Moritz F and Stepas, Katherine A and Moser, Carlee B and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Wang, Thomas J and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Franco, Oscar H and Yin, Xiaoyan and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Astor, Brad C and Ballantyne, Christie M and Hoogeveen, Ron C and Arai, Andrew E and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Ellinor, Patrick T and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Pencina, Michael J and Benjamin, Emelia J and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {6187, title = {Height and risk of sudden cardiac death: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health studies.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {24}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Mar}, pages = {174-179.e2}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an important cause of mortality in the adult population. Height has been associated with cardiac hypertrophy and an increased risk of arrhythmias but also with decreased risk of coronary heart disease, suggesting a complex association with SCD.

METHODS: We examined the association of adult height with the risk of physician-adjudicated SCD in two large population-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

RESULTS: Over an average follow-up time of 11.7 years in Cardiovascular Health Study, there were 199 (3.6\%) cases of SCD among 5556 participants. In Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, over 12.6 years, there were 227 (1.5\%) cases of SCD among 15,633 participants. In both cohorts, there was a trend toward decreased SCD with taller height. In fixed effects meta-analysis, the pooled hazard ratio per 10 cm of height was 0.84; 95\% confidence interval, 0.73-0.98; P~= .03. The association of increased height with lower risk of SCD was slightly attenuated after inclusion of risk factors associated with height, such as hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy. The association appeared stronger among men than women in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS: In two population-based prospective cohorts of different ages, greater height was associated with lower risk of SCD.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Atherosclerosis, Body Height, Coronary Disease, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Population Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors}, issn = {1873-2585}, doi = {10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.11.008}, author = {Rosenberg, Michael A and Lopez, Faye L and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Adabag, Selcuk and Chen, Lin Y and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Kronmal, Richard A and Siscovick, David S and Alonso, Alvaro and Buxton, Alfred and Folsom, Aaron R and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6338, title = {Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {82}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 May 20}, pages = {1804-12}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS).

METHODS: We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45\% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38\% male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41\% male, median follow-up 12.8 years. Among these participants, 325 ICH events, 2,559 IS events, and 9,909 nonstroke deaths occurred. We developed 10-year cumulative incidence functions for ICH and IS using stratified Cox regression and competing risks analysis. Basic models including only established nonlaboratory risk factors were extended with diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and glomerular filtration rate. The cumulative incidence functions{\textquoteright} performances were cross-validated in each cohort separately by Harrell C-statistic and calibration plots.

RESULTS: High total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio decreased the ICH rates but increased IS rates (p for difference across stroke types <0.001). For both the ICH and IS models, C statistics increased more by model extension in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health Study cohorts. Improvements in C statistics were reproduced by cross-validation. Models were well calibrated in all cohorts. Correlations between 10-year ICH and IS risks were moderate in each cohort.

CONCLUSIONS: We developed and cross-validated cumulative incidence functions for separate prediction of 10-year ICH and IS risk. These functions can be useful to further specify an individual{\textquoteright}s stroke risk.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atherosclerosis, Body Mass Index, Brain Ischemia, Cholesterol, Female, Humans, Incidence, Intracranial Hemorrhages, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke}, issn = {1526-632X}, doi = {10.1212/WNL.0000000000000427}, author = {Ferket, Bart S and van Kempen, Bob J H and Wieberdink, Renske G and Steyerberg, Ewout W and Koudstaal, Peter J and Hofman, Albert and Shahar, Eyal and Gottesman, Rebecca F and Rosamond, Wayne and Kizer, Jorge R and Kronmal, Richard A and Psaty, Bruce M and Longstreth, W T and Mosley, Thomas and Folsom, Aaron R and Hunink, M G Myriam and Ikram, M Arfan} } @article {6669, title = {Association between hospitalization for pneumonia and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {313}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jan 20}, pages = {264-74}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) after infection is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hospitalization for pneumonia is associated with an increased short-term and long-term risk of CVD.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: We examined 2 community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5888; enrollment age, >=65 years; enrollment period, 1989-1994) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (ARIC, n = 15,792; enrollment age, 45-64 years; enrollment period, 1987-1989). Participants were followed up through December 31, 2010. We matched each participant hospitalized with pneumonia to 2 controls. Pneumonia cases and controls were followed for occurrence of CVD over 10 years after matching. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD at different time intervals, adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, subclinical CVD, comorbidities, and functional status.

EXPOSURES: Hospitalization for pneumonia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and fatal coronary heart disease).

RESULTS: Of 591 pneumonia cases in CHS, 206 had CVD events over 10 years after pneumonia hospitalization. CVD risk after pneumonia was highest in the first year. CVD occurred in 54 cases and 6 controls in the first 30 days (HR, 4.07; 95\% CI, 2.86-5.27); 11 cases and 9 controls between 31 and 90 days (HR, 2.94; 95\% CI, 2.18-3.70); and 22 cases and 55 controls between 91 days and 1 year (HR, 2.10; 95\% CI, 1.59-2.60). Additional CVD risk remained elevated into the tenth year, when 4 cases and 12 controls developed CVD (HR, 1.86; 95\% CI, 1.18-2.55). In ARIC, of 680 pneumonia cases, 112 had CVD over 10 years after hospitalization. CVD occurred in 4 cases and 3 controls in the first 30 days (HR, 2.38; 95\% CI, 1.12-3.63); 4 cases and 0 controls between 31 and 90 days (HR, 2.40; 95\% CI, 1.23-3.47); 11 cases and 8 controls between 91 days and 1 year (HR, 2.19; 95\% CI, 1.20-3.19); and 8 cases and 7 controls during the second year (HR, 1.88; 95\% CI, 1.10-2.66). After the second year, the HRs were no longer statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Hospitalization for pneumonia was associated with increased short-term and long-term risk of CVD, suggesting that pneumonia may be a risk factor for CVD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atherosclerosis, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Risk Factors}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.18229}, author = {Corrales-Medina, Vicente F and Alvarez, Karina N and Weissfeld, Lisa A and Angus, Derek C and Chirinos, Julio A and Chang, Chung-Chou H and Newman, Anne and Loehr, Laura and Folsom, Aaron R and Elkind, Mitchell S and Lyles, Mary F and Kronmal, Richard A and Yende, Sachin} } @article {6668, title = {Association between left atrial abnormality on ECG and vascular brain injury on MRI in the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {46}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Mar}, pages = {711-6}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Emerging evidence suggests that atrial disease is associated with vascular brain injury in the absence of atrial fibrillation.

METHODS: The Cardiovascular Health Study prospectively enrolled community-dwelling adults aged >=65 years. Among participants who underwent MRI, we examined associations of ECG left atrial abnormality with brain infarcts and leukoaraiosis. P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was the primary measure of left atrial abnormality; P-wave area and duration were secondary predictors. We excluded participants with atrial fibrillation before or on their index ECG. Primary outcomes were incident infarcts and worsening leukoaraiosis from initial to follow-up scan ≈5 years later. Secondary outcomes were prevalent infarcts and degree of leukoaraiosis on initial MRI. Relative risk (RR) and linear regression models were adjusted for vascular risk factors.

RESULTS: Among 3129 participants with >=1 scan, each SD increase in P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was associated with a 0.05-point (95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.0003-0.10) higher baseline white matter grade on a 10-point scale. P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was associated with prevalent infarcts of any type (RR per SD, 1.09; 95\% CI, 1.04-1.16) and more so with prevalent nonlacunar infarcts (RR per SD, 1.22; 95\% CI, 1.08-1.38). Among 1839 participants with 2 scans, P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was associated with worsening leukoaraiosis (RR per SD, 1.09; 95\% CI, 1.01-1.18), but not with incident infarcts (RR per SD, 1.06; 95\% CI, 0.93-1.20). Sensitivity analyses adjusting for incident atrial fibrillation found similar results. P-wave area and duration were not associated with outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS: ECG left atrial abnormality is associated with vascular brain injury in the absence of documented atrial fibrillation.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Brain, Brain Infarction, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cerebrovascular Trauma, Electrocardiography, Female, Heart Atria, Heart Diseases, Humans, Linear Models, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Treatment Outcome}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.114.007762}, author = {Kamel, Hooman and Bartz, Traci M and Longstreth, W T and Okin, Peter M and Thacker, Evan L and Patton, Kristen K and Stein, Phyllis K and Gottesman, Rebecca F and Heckbert, Susan R and Kronmal, Richard A and Elkind, Mitchell S V and Soliman, Elsayed Z} } @article {6808, title = {Intermediate and long-term risk of new-onset heart failure after hospitalization for pneumonia in elderly adults.}, journal = {Am Heart J}, volume = {170}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Aug}, pages = {306-12}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is associated with high risk of heart failure (HF) in the short term (30 days) postinfection. Whether this association persists beyond this period is unknown.

METHODS: We studied 5,613 elderly (>=65 years) adults enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study between 1989 and 1994 at 4 US communities. Participants had no clinical diagnosis of HF at enrollment, and they were followed up through December 2010. Hospitalizations for pneumonia were identified using validated International Classification of Disease Ninth Revision codes. A centralized committee adjudicated new-onset HF events. Using Cox regression, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of new-onset HF at different time intervals after hospitalization for pneumonia.

RESULTS: A total of 652 participants hospitalized for pneumonia during follow-up were still alive and free of clinical diagnosis of HF by day 30 posthospitalization. Relative to the time of their hospitalization, new-onset HF occurred in 22 cases between 31 and 90 days (HR 6.9, 95\% CI 4.46-10.63, P < .001), 14 cases between 91 days and 6 months (HR 3.2, 95\% CI 1.88-5.50, P < .001), 20 cases between 6 months and 1 year (HR 2.6, 95\% CI 1.64-4.04, P < .001), 76 cases between 1 and 5 years (HR 1.7, 95\% CI 1.30-2.12, P < .001), and 71 cases after 5 years (HR 2.0, 95\% CI 1.56-2.58, P < .001). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses using stringent definitions of pneumonia and extreme assumptions for potential informative censoring.

CONCLUSION: Hospitalization for pneumonia is associated with increased risk of new-onset HF in the intermediate and long term. Studies should characterize the mechanisms of this association in order to prevent HF in elderly pneumonia survivors.

}, keywords = {Aged, Disease Progression, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Forecasting, Heart Failure, Hospitalization, Humans, Incidence, Inpatients, Male, Patient Readmission, Pneumonia, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {1097-6744}, doi = {10.1016/j.ahj.2015.04.028}, author = {Corrales-Medina, Vicente F and Taljaard, Monica and Yende, Sachin and Kronmal, Richard and Dwivedi, Girish and Newman, Anne B and Elkind, Mitchell S V and Lyles, Mary F and Chirinos, Julio A} } @article {7124, title = {Brain natriuretic peptide and insulin resistance in older adults.}, journal = {Diabet Med}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 Apr 21}, abstract = {

AIMS: Higher levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) have been associated with a decreased risk of diabetes in adults, but whether BNP is related to insulin resistance in older adults has not been established.

METHODS: N-Terminal (NT)-proBNP was measured among Cardiovascular Health Study participants at the 1989-1990, 1992-1993 and 1996-1997 examinations. We calculated measures of insulin resistance [homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), Gutt index, Matsuda index] from fasting and 2-h concentrations of glucose and insulin among 3318 individuals with at least one measure of NT-proBNP and free of heart failure, coronary heart disease and chronic kidney disease, and not taking diabetes medication. We used generalized estimating equations to assess the cross-sectional association of NT-proBNP with measures of insulin resistance. Instrumental variable analysis with an allele score derived from nine genetic variants (single nucleotide polymorphisms) within or near the NPPA and NPPB loci was used to estimate an un-confounded association of NT-proBNP levels on insulin resistance.

RESULTS: Lower NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher insulin resistance even after adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and other risk factors (P~<~0.001 for all four indices). Although the genetic score was strongly related to measured NT-proBNP levels amongst European Americans (F statistic~=~71.08), we observed no association of genetically determined NT-proBNP with insulin resistance (P~=~0.38; P~=~0.01 for comparison with the association of measured levels of NT-proBNP).

CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, lower NT-proBNP is associated with higher insulin resistance, even after adjustment for traditional risk factors. Because related genetic variants were not associated with insulin resistance, the causal nature of this association will require future study. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

}, issn = {1464-5491}, doi = {10.1111/dme.13139}, author = {Kim, F and Biggs, M L and Kizer, J R and Brutsaert, E F and de Fillipi, C and Newman, A B and Kronmal, R A and Tracy, R P and Gottdiener, J S and Djouss{\'e}, L and de Boer, I H and Psaty, B M and Siscovick, D S and Mukamal, K J} } @article {7243, title = {Development and Validation of a Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction Model for the General Population.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {134}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 Sep 13}, pages = {806-16}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Most sudden cardiac death (SCD) events occur in the general population among persons who do not have any prior history of clinical heart disease. We sought to develop a predictive model of SCD among US adults.

METHODS: We evaluated a series of demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic measures in participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) (n=13 677) and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) (n=4207) who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Our initial objective was to derive a SCD prediction model using the ARIC cohort and validate it in CHS. Independent risk factors for SCD were first identified in the ARIC cohort to derive a 10-year risk model of SCD. We compared the prediction of SCD with non-SCD and all-cause mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, we evaluated whether the SCD prediction equation was better at predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Disease Pooled Cohort risk equation.

RESULTS: There were a total of 345 adjudicated SCD events in our analyses, and the 12 independent risk factors in the ARIC study included age, male sex, black race, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes mellitus, serum potassium, serum albumin, high-density lipoprotein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and QTc interval. During a 10-year follow-up period, a model combining these risk factors showed good to excellent discrimination for SCD risk (c-statistic 0.820 in ARIC and 0.745 in CHS). The SCD prediction model was slightly better in predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort risk equations (c-statistic 0.808 in ARIC and 0.743 in CHS). Only the SCD prediction model, however, demonstrated similar and accurate prediction for SCD using both the original, uncalibrated score and the recalibrated equation. Finally, in the echocardiographic subcohort, a left ventricular ejection fraction <50\% was present in only 1.1\% of participants and did not enhance SCD prediction.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to derive and validate a generalizable risk score that provides well-calibrated, absolute risk estimates across different risk strata in an adult population of white and black participants without a clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular disease.

}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.116.023042}, author = {Deo, Rajat and Norby, Faye L and Katz, Ronit and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Adabag, Selcuk and deFilippi, Christopher R and Kestenbaum, Bryan and Chen, Lin Y and Heckbert, Susan R and Folsom, Aaron R and Kronmal, Richard A and Konety, Suma and Patton, Kristen K and Siscovick, David and Shlipak, Michael G and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {7123, title = {Measures of Body Size and Composition and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older People: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {183}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 Jun 1}, pages = {998-1007}, abstract = {

Various anthropometric measures, including height, have been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). This raises questions about the appropriateness of using ratio measures such as body mass index (BMI), which contains height squared in its denominator, in the evaluation of AF risk. Among older adults, the optimal anthropometric approach to risk stratification of AF remains uncertain. Anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance measures were obtained from 4,276 participants (mean age = 72.4 years) free of cardiovascular disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up (1989-2008), 1,050 cases of AF occurred. BMI showed a U-shaped association, whereas height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, fat mass, and fat-free mass were linearly related to incident AF. The strongest adjusted association occurred for height (per each 1-standard-deviation increment, hazard ratio = 1.38, 95\% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.51), which exceeded all other measures, including weight (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95\% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.29). Combined assessment of log-transformed weight and height showed regression coefficients that departed from the 1 to -2 ratio inherent in BMI, indicating a loss of predictive information. Risk estimates for AF tended to be stronger for hip circumference than for waist circumference and for fat-free mass than for fat mass, which was explained largely by height. These findings highlight the prominent role of body size and the inadequacy of BMI as determinants of AF in older adults.

}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwv278}, author = {Karas, Maria G and Yee, Laura M and Biggs, Mary L and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Ix, Joachim H and Zieman, Susan J and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Rosenberg, Michael A and Kronmal, Richard A and Heckbert, Susan R and Kizer, Jorge R} } @article {7451, title = {REPEATED MEASUREMENTS OF BLOOD PRESSURE AND CHOLESTEROL IMPROVES CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK PREDICTION: AN INDIVIDUAL-PARTICIPANT-DATA META-ANALYSIS.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, year = {2017}, month = {2017 May 26}, abstract = {

The added value of incorporating information from repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction has not been rigorously assessed. We used data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration on 191,445 adults (38 cohorts from across 17 countries with data from 1962-2014) with~>~1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative means of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modelling of the repeated measurements were compared to models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analysed across studies. Compared to the single time point model, the cumulative means and the longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95\% CI: 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared to the single time point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative means model and 0.0177 (0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction.

}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwx149}, author = {Paige, Ellie and Barrett, Jessica and Pennells, Lisa and Sweeting, Michael and Willeit, Peter and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge G and Psaty, Bruce M and Goldbourt, Uri and Best, Lyle G and Assmann, Gerd and Salonen, Jukka T and Nietert, Paul J and Verschuren, Wm Monique and Brunner, Eric J and Kronmal, Richard A and Salomaa, Veikko and Bakker, Stephan Jl and Dagenais, Gilles R and Sato, Shinichi and Jansson, Jan-H{\r a}kan and Willeit, Johann and Onat, Altan and de la C{\'a}mara, Agustin G{\'o}mez and Roussel, Ronan and V{\"o}lzke, Henry and Dankner, Rachel and Tipping, Robert W and Meade, Tom W and Donfrancesco, Chiara and Kuller, Lewis H and Peters, Annette and Gallacher, John and Kromhout, Daan and Iso, Hiroyasu and Knuiman, Matthew and Casiglia, Edoardo and Kavousi, Maryam and Palmieri, Luigi and Sundstr{\"o}m, Johan and Davis, Barry R and Nj{\o}lstad, Inger and Couper, David and Danesh, John and Thompson, Simon G and Wood, Angela} } @article {7682, title = {Atrial Cardiopathy and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {49}, year = {2018}, month = {2018 Apr}, pages = {980-986}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Emerging evidence suggests that an underlying atrial cardiopathy may result in thromboembolism before atrial fibrillation (AF) develops. We examined the association between various markers of atrial cardiopathy and the risk of ischemic stroke.

METHODS: The CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) prospectively enrolled community-dwelling adults >=65 years of age. For this study, we excluded participants diagnosed with stroke or AF before baseline. Exposures were several markers of atrial cardiopathy: baseline P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V, left atrial dimension on echocardiogram, and N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), as well as incident AF. Incident AF was ascertained from 12-lead electrocardiograms at annual study visits for the first decade after study enrollment and from inpatient and outpatient Medicare data throughout follow-up. The primary outcome was incident ischemic stroke. We used Cox proportional hazards models that included all 4 atrial cardiopathy markers along with adjustment for demographic characteristics and established vascular risk factors.

RESULTS: Among 3723 participants who were free of stroke and AF at baseline and who had data on all atrial cardiopathy markers, 585 participants (15.7\%) experienced an incident ischemic stroke during a median 12.9 years of follow-up. When all atrial cardiopathy markers were combined in 1 Cox model, we found significant associations with stroke for P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V (hazard ratio per 1000 μV*ms 1.04; 95\% confidence interval, 1.001-1.08), log-transformed NT-proBNP (hazard ratio per doubling of NT-proBNP, 1.09; 95\% confidence interval, 1.03-1.16), and incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95\% confidence interval, 1.67-2.48) but not left atrial dimension (hazard ratio per cm, 0.96; 95\% confidence interval, 0.84-1.10).

CONCLUSIONS: In addition to clinically apparent AF, other evidence of abnormal atrial substrate is associated with subsequent ischemic stroke. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that thromboembolism from the left atrium may occur in the setting of several different manifestations of atrial disease.

}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.117.020059}, author = {Kamel, Hooman and Bartz, Traci M and Elkind, Mitchell S V and Okin, Peter M and Thacker, Evan L and Patton, Kristen K and Stein, Phyllis K and deFilippi, Christopher R and Gottesman, Rebecca F and Heckbert, Susan R and Kronmal, Richard A and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Longstreth, W T} } @article {8042, title = {Harmonization of Respiratory Data From 9 US Population-Based Cohorts: The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {187}, year = {2018}, month = {2018 Nov 01}, pages = {2265-2278}, abstract = {

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs) are the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. To support investigations into CLRD risk determinants and new approaches to primary prevention, we aimed to harmonize and pool respiratory data from US general population-based cohorts. Data were obtained from prospective cohorts that performed prebronchodilator spirometry and were harmonized following 2005 ATS/ERS standards. In cohorts conducting follow-up for noncardiovascular events, CLRD events were defined as hospitalizations/deaths adjudicated as CLRD-related or assigned relevant administrative codes. Coding and variable names were applied uniformly. The pooled sample included 65,251 adults in 9 cohorts followed-up for CLRD-related mortality over 653,380 person-years during 1983-2016. Average baseline age was 52 years; 56\% were female; 49\% were never-smokers; and racial/ethnic composition was 44\% white, 22\% black, 28\% Hispanic/Latino, and 5\% American Indian. Over 96\% had complete data on smoking, clinical CLRD diagnoses, and dyspnea. After excluding invalid spirometry examinations (13\%), there were 105,696 valid examinations (median, 2 per participant). Of 29,351 participants followed for CLRD hospitalizations, median follow-up was 14 years; only 5\% were lost to follow-up at 10 years. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study provides a harmonization standard applied to a large, US population-based sample that may be used to advance epidemiologic research on CLRD.

}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwy139}, author = {Oelsner, Elizabeth C and Balte, Pallavi P and Cassano, Patricia A and Couper, David and Enright, Paul L and Folsom, Aaron R and Hankinson, John and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and Kaplan, Robert and Kronmal, Richard and Lange, Leslie and Loehr, Laura R and London, Stephanie J and Navas Acien, Ana and Newman, Anne B and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Schwartz, Joseph E and Smith, Lewis J and Yeh, Fawn and Zhang, Yiyi and Moran, Andrew E and Mwasongwe, Stanford and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin and Barr, R Graham} } @article {7820, title = {Left atrial diameter and vascular brain injury on MRI: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Neurology}, year = {2018}, month = {2018 Aug 29}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association left atrial diameter (LAD) and vascular brain injury on brain MRI.

METHODS: We analyzed data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a prospective cohort of community-dwelling adults >=65 years old. LAD was measured from 2-dimensional transthoracic echocardiograms. Among CHS participants who underwent brain MRI, we examined associations of LAD with brain infarcts and leukoaraiosis. Primary outcomes (number for analysis) were prevalent infarcts (2,327) and degree of leukoaraiosis on initial MRI (2,315). Secondary outcomes were prevalent nonlacunar infarcts (2,327), incident infarcts (939), incident nonlacunar infarcts (1,185), and degree of leukoaraiosis on follow-up MRI adjusted for initial MRI (1,158). Relative risk (RR) and linear regression models were adjusted for demographics, vascular risk factors, and potential confounders.

RESULTS: Mean age of the 2,335 participants with initial brain MRI was 72.0 {\textpm} 4.8 years; 38.7\% were men; and 29.0\% participants had prevalent infarcts. In multivariable, fully adjusted models, LAD was associated with prevalent infarcts (RR 1.20, 95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.34) and prevalent nonlacunar infarcts (RR 1.28, 95\% CI 1.06-1.54) but not with leukoaraiosis (-0.08, 95\% CI -0.17 to 0.07), incident infarcts (RR 1.00, 95\% CI 0.78-1.29), nonlacunar infarcts (RR 0.98, 95\% CI 0.67-1.42), or worsening leukoaraiosis (-0.04, 95\% CI -0.10 to 0.02).

CONCLUSION: LAD is independently associated with prevalent brain infarcts, particularly nonlacunar infarcts, but not leukoaraiosis. Larger studies are needed to determine associations with incident infarct risk and whether this risk in patients with left atrial enlargement can be reduced with anticoagulant agents.

}, issn = {1526-632X}, doi = {10.1212/WNL.0000000000006228}, author = {Yaghi, Shadi and Bartz, Traci M and Kronmal, Richard and Kamel, Hooman and Gottdiener, John and Longstreth, W T and Elkind, Mitchell S V} } @article {7670, title = {Serum Androgens and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Older Men: The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Clin Cardiol}, year = {2018}, month = {2018 Apr 19}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Decline in serum androgens is common among older men and has been associated with cardiovascular disease, although its role in risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been well defined.

HYPOTHESIS: Low serum androgens are associated with an increased risk of AF.

METHODS: We examined the prospective associations between testosterone, its more active metabolite dihydrotestosterone (DHT), and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG) with risk of AF among 1019 otherwise healthy men of average age 76.3{\textpm}4.9 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

RESULTS: After median follow-up of 9.5 years, 304 (30\%) men developed AF. We detected a nonlinear association with risk of incident AF in both free and total DHT, in which subjects with the lowest levels had a higher risk of incident AF. After adjustment for demographics, clinical risk factors, left atrial diameter, and serum NT-proBNP levels, men with free DHT less than 0.16 ng/dL were at increased risk compared with men with higher levels (HR 1.48, CI 1.01-2.17, p<0.05). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the increased risk was not cutpoint-specific, with a significant association noted up to cutpoints less than ~0.2 ng/dL. We also detected a complex nonlinear association between SHBG and incident AF, in which subjects in the middle quintile (52.9 - 65.3 nmol/L) had increased risk.

CONCLUSION: Among older men, low free DHT is associated with an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation. Further studies are needed to explore mechanisms for this association.

}, issn = {1932-8737}, doi = {10.1002/clc.22965}, author = {Rosenberg, Michael A and Shores, Molly M and Matsumoto, Alvin M and B{\r u}zkov{\'a}, Petra and Lange, Leslie A and Kronmal, Richard A and Heckbert, Susan R and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {7980, title = {Albuminuria, Lung Function Decline, and Risk of Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.}, journal = {Am J Respir Crit Care Med}, volume = {199}, year = {2019}, month = {2019 Feb 01}, pages = {321-332}, abstract = {

RATIONALE: Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs), including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, are the fourth leading cause of death. Prior studies suggest that albuminuria, a biomarker of endothelial injury, is increased in patients with COPD.

OBJECTIVES: To test whether albuminuria was associated with lung function decline and incident CLRDs.

METHODS: Six U.S. population-based cohorts were harmonized and pooled. Participants with prevalent clinical lung disease were excluded. Albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) was measured in spot samples. Lung function was assessed by spirometry. Incident CLRD-related hospitalizations and deaths were classified via adjudication and/or administrative criteria. Mixed and proportional hazards models were used to test individual-level associations adjusted for age, height, weight, sex, race/ethnicity, education, birth year, cohort, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, renal function, hypertension, diabetes, and medications.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 10,961 participants with preserved lung function, mean age at albuminuria measurement was 60 years, 51\% were never-smokers, median albuminuria was 5.6 mg/g, and mean FEV decline was 31.5 ml/yr. For each SD increase in log-transformed albuminuria, there was 2.81\% greater FEV decline (95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-4.76\%; P = 0.0047), 11.02\% greater FEV/FVC decline (95\% CI, 4.43-17.62\%; P = 0.0011), and 15\% increased hazard of incident spirometry-defined moderate-to-severe COPD (95\% CI, 2-31\%, P = 0.0021). Each SD log-transformed albuminuria increased hazards of incident COPD-related hospitalization/mortality by 26\% (95\% CI, 18-34\%, P < 0.0001) among 14,213 participants followed for events. Asthma events were not significantly associated. Associations persisted in participants without current smoking, diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS: Albuminuria was associated with greater lung function decline, incident spirometry-defined COPD, and incident COPD-related events in a U.S. population-based sample.

}, issn = {1535-4970}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.201803-0402OC}, author = {Oelsner, Elizabeth C and Balte, Pallavi P and Grams, Morgan E and Cassano, Patricia A and Jacobs, David R and Barr, R Graham and Burkart, Kristin M and Kalhan, Ravi and Kronmal, Richard and Loehr, Laura R and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Schwartz, Joseph E and Shlipak, Michael and Tracy, Russell P and Tsai, Michael Y and White, Wendy and Yende, Sachin} } @article {8620, title = {Association of Nonobstructive Chronic Bronchitis With Respiratory Health Outcomes in Adults.}, journal = {JAMA Intern Med}, volume = {180}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 05 01}, pages = {676-686}, abstract = {

Importance: Chronic bronchitis has been associated with cigarette smoking as well as with e-cigarette use among young adults, but the association of chronic bronchitis in persons without airflow obstruction or clinical asthma, described as nonobstructive chronic bronchitis, with respiratory health outcomes remains uncertain.

Objective: To assess whether nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes in adult ever smokers and never smokers.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included 22 325 adults without initial airflow obstruction (defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] of <0.70) or clinical asthma at baseline. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts. Thus present study is based on data from 5 of these cohorts. Participants were enrolled from August 1971 through May 2007 and were followed up through December 2018.

Exposures: Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was defined by questionnaire at baseline as both cough and phlegm for at least 3 months for at least 2 consecutive years.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Lung function was measured by prebronchodilator spirometry. Hospitalizations and deaths due to chronic lower respiratory disease and respiratory disease-related mortality were defined by events adjudication and administrative criteria. Models were stratified by smoking status and adjusted for anthropometric, sociodemographic, and smoking-related factors. The comparison group was participants without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis.

Results: Among 22 325 adults included in the analysis, mean (SD) age was 53.0 (16.3) years (range, 18.0-95.0 years), 58.2\% were female, 65.9\% were non-Hispanic white, and 49.6\% were ever smokers. Among 11 082 ever smokers with 99 869 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (300 [2.7\%]) had accelerated decreases in FEV1 (4.1 mL/y; 95\% CI, 2.1-6.1 mL/y) and FVC (4.7 mL/y; 95\% CI, 2.2-7.2 mL/y), increased risks of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95\% CI, 1.7-2.7), and greater respiratory disease-related (HR, 2.0; 95\% CI, 1.1-3.8) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95\% CI, 1.3-1.8) compared with ever smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Among 11 243 never smokers with 120 004 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (151 [1.3\%]) had greater rates of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (HR, 3.1; 95\% CI, 2.1-4.5) compared with never smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was not associated with FEV1:FVC decline or incident airflow obstruction. The presence of at least 1 of the component symptoms of nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (ie, chronic cough or phlegm), which was common in both ever smokers (11.0\%) and never smokers (6.7\%), was associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes.

Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes, particularly in ever smokers, and may be a high-risk phenotype suitable for risk stratification and targeted therapies.

}, keywords = {Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Asthma, Bronchitis, Chronic, Female, Humans, Lung, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Respiratory Function Tests, Smokers, Smoking, Young Adult}, issn = {2168-6114}, doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.0104}, author = {Balte, Pallavi P and Chaves, Paulo H M and Couper, David J and Enright, Paul and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and Kronmal, Richard A and Loehr, Laura R and London, Stephanie J and Newman, Anne B and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Schwartz, Joseph E and Smith, Benjamin M and Smith, Lewis J and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} } @article {8623, title = {A Dyadic Growth Modeling Approach for Examining Associations Between Weight Gain and Lung Function Decline.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {189}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 10 01}, pages = {1173-1184}, abstract = {

The relationship between body weight and lung function is complex. Using a dyadic multilevel linear modeling approach, treating body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) and lung function as paired, within-person outcomes, we tested the hypothesis that persons with more rapid increase in BMI exhibit more rapid decline in lung function, as measured by forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and their ratio (FEV1:FVC). Models included random intercepts and slopes and adjusted for sociodemographic and smoking-related factors. A sample of 9,115 adults with paired measurements of BMI and lung function taken at >=3 visits were selected from a pooled set of 5 US population-based cohort studies (1983-2018; mean age at baseline = 46 years; median follow-up, 19 years). At age 46 years, average annual rates of change in BMI, FEV1, FVC, and FEV1:FVC ratio were 0.22 kg/m2/year, -25.50 mL/year, -21.99 mL/year, and~-0.24\%/year, respectively. Persons with steeper BMI increases had faster declines in FEV1 (r~=~-0.16) and FVC (r~=~-0.26) and slower declines in FEV1:FVC ratio (r~=~0.11) (all P~values <~0.0001). Results were similar in subgroup analyses. Residual correlations were negative (P~<~0.0001), suggesting additional interdependence between BMI and lung function. Results show that greater rates of weight gain are associated with greater rates of lung function loss.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Humans, Linear Models, Lung, Middle Aged, Respiratory Function Tests, Weight Gain}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwaa059}, author = {Cornelius, Talea and Schwartz, Joseph E and Balte, Pallavi and Bhatt, Surya P and Cassano, Patricia A and Currow, David and Jacobs, David R and Johnson, Miriam and Kalhan, Ravi and Kronmal, Richard and Loehr, Laura and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Smith, Benjamin and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} } @article {8402, title = {Lung function decline in former smokers and low-intensity current smokers: a secondary data analysis of the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.}, journal = {Lancet Respir Med}, volume = {8}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 01}, pages = {34-44}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease.

METHODS: We used data on six US population-based cohorts included in the NHLBI Pooled Cohort Study. We restricted the sample to participants with valid spirometry at two or more exams. Two cohorts recruited younger adults (>=17 years), two recruited middle-aged and older adults (>=45 years), and two recruited only elderly adults (>=65 years) with examinations done between 1983 and 2014. FEV decline in sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers by use of mixed models adjusted for sociodemographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (number of pack-years) and current (number of cigarettes per day) cigarette consumption.

FINDINGS: 25 352 participants (ages 17-93 years) completed 70 228 valid spirometry exams. Over a median follow-up of 7 years (IQR 3-20), FEV decline at the median age (57 years) was 31{\textperiodcentered}01 mL per year (95\% CI 30{\textperiodcentered}66-31{\textperiodcentered}37) in sustained never-smokers, 34{\textperiodcentered}97 mL per year (34{\textperiodcentered}36-35{\textperiodcentered}57) in former smokers, and 39{\textperiodcentered}92 mL per year (38{\textperiodcentered}92-40{\textperiodcentered}92) in current smokers. With adjustment, former smokers showed an accelerated FEV decline of 1{\textperiodcentered}82 mL per year (95\% CI 1{\textperiodcentered}24-2{\textperiodcentered}40) compared to never-smokers, which was approximately 20\% of the effect estimate for current smokers (9{\textperiodcentered}21 mL per year; 95\% CI 8{\textperiodcentered}35-10{\textperiodcentered}08). Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV decline was observed in former smokers for decades after smoking cessation and in current smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (<10 pack-years). With respect to current cigarette consumption, the effect estimate for FEV decline in current smokers consuming less than five cigarettes per day (7{\textperiodcentered}65 mL per year; 95\% CI 6{\textperiodcentered}21-9{\textperiodcentered}09) was 68\% of that in current smokers consuming 30 or more cigarettes per day (11{\textperiodcentered}24 mL per year; 9{\textperiodcentered}86-12{\textperiodcentered}62), and around five times greater than in former smokers (1{\textperiodcentered}57 mL per year; 1{\textperiodcentered}00-2{\textperiodcentered}14). Among participants without prevalent lung disease, associations were attenuated but were consistent with the main results.

INTERPRETATION: Former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers. These results suggest that all levels of smoking exposure are likely to be associated with lasting and progressive lung damage.

FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, and US Environmental Protection Agency.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Case-Control Studies, Ex-Smokers, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Lung, Male, Middle Aged, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (U.S.), Non-Smokers, Respiratory Physiological Phenomena, Smokers, Smoking, Spirometry, United States, Young Adult}, issn = {2213-2619}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(19)30276-0}, author = {Oelsner, Elizabeth C and Balte, Pallavi P and Bhatt, Surya P and Cassano, Patricia A and Couper, David and Folsom, Aaron R and Freedman, Neal D and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and Mathew, Amanda R and Kronmal, Richard A and Loehr, Laura R and London, Stephanie J and Newman, Anne B and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Schwartz, Joseph E and Smith, Lewis J and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin} } @article {9160, title = {Lung function impairment and risk of incident heart failure: the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.}, journal = {Eur Heart J}, volume = {43}, year = {2022}, month = {2022 06 14}, pages = {2196-2208}, abstract = {

AIMS: The aim is to evaluate associations of lung function impairment with risk of incident heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were pooled across eight US population-based cohorts that enrolled participants from 1987 to 2004. Participants with self-reported baseline cardiovascular disease were excluded. Spirometry was used to define obstructive [forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) <0.70] or restrictive (FEV1/FVC >=0.70, FVC <80\%) lung physiology. The incident HF was defined as hospitalization or death caused by HF. In a sub-set, HF events were sub-classified as HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF <50\%) or preserved EF (HFpEF; EF >=50\%). The Fine-Gray proportional sub-distribution hazards models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, smoking, and cardiovascular risk factors. In models of incident HF sub-types, HFrEF, HFpEF, and non-HF mortality were treated as competing risks. Among 31 677 adults, there were 3344 incident HF events over a median follow-up of 21.0 years. Of 2066 classifiable HF events, 1030 were classified as HFrEF and 1036 as HFpEF. Obstructive [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.17, 95\% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.27] and restrictive physiology (adjusted HR 1.43, 95\% CI 1.27-1.62) were associated with incident HF. Obstructive and restrictive ventilatory defects were associated with HFpEF but not HFrEF. The magnitude of the association between restrictive physiology and HFpEF was similar to associations with hypertension, diabetes, and smoking.

CONCLUSION: Lung function impairment was associated with increased risk of incident HF, and particularly incident HFpEF, independent of and to a similar extent as major known cardiovascular risk factors.

}, keywords = {Adult, Heart Failure, Hospitalization, Humans, Lung, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (U.S.), Prognosis, Risk Factors, Stroke Volume, United States}, issn = {1522-9645}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehac205}, author = {Eckhardt, Christina M and Balte, Pallavi P and Barr, Robert Graham and Bertoni, Alain G and Bhatt, Surya P and Cuttica, Michael and Cassano, Patricia A and Chaves, Paolo and Couper, David and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and Kronmal, Richard and Lange, Leslie and Loehr, Laura and London, Stephanie J and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Rosamond, Wayne and Sanders, Jason and Schwartz, Joseph E and Shah, Amil and Shah, Sanjiv J and Smith, Lewis and White, Wendy and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} }