@article {1447, title = {Properties of the random zero sphygmomanometer.}, journal = {Hypertension}, volume = {21}, year = {1993}, month = {1993 May}, pages = {632-7}, abstract = {

The random zero sphygmomanometer is widely used in studies involving blood pressure measurement because it is believed to eliminate digit preference and reduce measurement error. We performed blood pressure measurements sequentially using random zero and standard sphygmomanometers in random order in 1,356 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Despite adherence to the manufacturer{\textquoteright}s instructions, we observed a substantially nonuniform distribution of zero levels generated by the random zero sphygmomanometer and a disturbing correlation between the zero level and blood pressures taken with the standard sphygmomanometer. With the random zero device, the pooled estimated slopes for the regression of standard systolic and diastolic pressures on the zero level were -0.71 and -0.17, respectively (both p < 0.0001). The only plausible explanation for this relation between the random zero device and the standard device is that by some unknown mechanism the subject{\textquoteright}s blood pressure is influencing the zero level. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures measured with the random zero device were, respectively, 1.65 and 1.84 mm Hg lower (both p < 0.0001) than standard blood pressures. Digit preference was detectable in the uncorrected blood pressure and zero level measured with the random zero device but was eliminated after calculation of the corrected blood pressure. For most epidemiological studies, the random zero sphygmomanometer offers no significant advantage over the standard sphygmomanometer. It may still be useful in those epidemiological studies and clinical trials where blinding is important.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Blood Pressure Determination, Cohort Studies, Diastole, Humans, Regression Analysis, Systole}, issn = {0194-911X}, author = {Kronmal, R A and Rutan, G H and Manolio, T A and Borhani, N O} } @article {1437, title = {Correlates of blood pressure in community-dwelling older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study. Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Hypertension}, volume = {23}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Jan}, pages = {59-67}, abstract = {

Although elevated blood pressure is an important predictor of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the elderly, little information exists on the distribution and risk factor correlates of blood pressure in this group. As part of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort study of 5201 men and women aged 65 to 101 years, we investigated correlates of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Multiple regression analyses were conducted for all participants and a subgroup of 2482 without coronary heart disease and not on antihypertensive therapy (the "healthier" subgroup). In the total group, independent predictors of diastolic blood pressure included heart rate, aortic root dimension, creatinine, hematocrit, alcohol use, and black race (positive associations) and internal carotid artery wall thickness, mitral early/late peak flow velocity, white blood cell count, cigarette smoking, and age (negative associations). Positive predictors of systolic blood pressure included mitral late peak flow velocity, left ventricular mass, common carotid artery wall thickness, serum albumin, factor VII, diabetes, alcohol use, and age; negative predictors were coronary heart disease, uric acid, height, and smoking. In the healthier subgroup, positive predictors of diastolic blood pressure included heart rate, hematocrit, serum albumin, creatinine, and body weight, whereas mitral early/late peak flow velocity, serum potassium, smoking, and age inversely related to diastolic pressure. For the same group, common carotid artery wall thickness, left ventricular mass, serum albumin, factor VII, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and age were directly related to systolic blood pressure, whereas serum potassium was inversely related. Both systolic and diastolic pressures varied considerably by geographic site.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Regression Analysis, United States}, issn = {0194-911X}, author = {Tell, G S and Rutan, G H and Kronmal, R A and Bild, D E and Polak, J F and Wong, N D and Borhani, N O} } @article {1420, title = {A method for using MR to evaluate the effects of cardiovascular disease on the brain: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {AJNR Am J Neuroradiol}, volume = {15}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Oct}, pages = {1625-33}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: To do a pilot study for the Cardiovascular Health Study (a population-based, longitudinal study of coronary heart disease and stroke in adults 65 years of age and older designed to identify risk factors related to cerebrovascular disease, particularly stroke): (a) to determine the feasibility of adding brain MR to the full-scale study; (b) to evaluate the reliability of standardized MR image interpretation in a multicenter study; and (c) to compare the prevalence of stroke determined by MR with that by clinical history.

METHODS: Protocol-defined MR studies were performed in 100 subjects with clinical histories of stroke and 203 subjects without reported histories of stroke. MR scans were independently evaluated by two trained neuroradiologists for the presence of small (< or = 3 mm) and large (> 3 mm) "infarctlike" lesions. The sizes of the cerebral sulci and lateral ventricles and the extent of white matter disease were graded on a scale of 0 to 9.

RESULTS: Eighty percent of the Cardiovascular Health Study participants who were invited to undergo MR studies agreed to do so; 95\% of those agreeing to the procedure successfully completed the exams. Intrareader and interreader reliability of infarctlike lesion identification was high for large lesions (kappa, 0.71 and 0.78, respectively) but not for small lesions (kappa, 0.71 and 0.32, respectively). Relaxed intrareader and interreader kappa scores for sulcal and ventricular sizes and extent of white matter disease were greater than 0.8 MR evidence of infarctlike lesions was present in 77\% of the participants with histories of stroke but was also present in 23\% of the participants without clinical histories of stroke. Seventy-nine percent of the infarctlike lesions were larger than 3 mm.

CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study indicates that a large, prospective, epidemiologic study of elderly subjects using MR scans of the brain for identification of cerebrovascular disease is feasible and that the interpretative results are reproducible, and suggests that MR evidence of stroke is more prevalent than reported clinical history of stroke.

}, keywords = {Aged, Brain, Cerebral Infarction, Cerebral Ventricles, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Cross-Sectional Studies, Diagnosis, Differential, Feasibility Studies, Female, Humans, Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Mass Screening, Observer Variation, Pilot Projects, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0195-6108}, author = {Bryan, R N and Manolio, T A and Schertz, L D and Jungreis, C and Poirier, V C and Elster, A D and Kronmal, R A} } @article {1428, title = {Prevalence and correlates of respiratory symptoms and disease in the elderly. Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {106}, year = {1994}, month = {1994 Sep}, pages = {827-34}, abstract = {

Spirometry was performed by 5,201 elderly participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study during their baseline examination and a subset of the ATS/DLD-78 respiratory questionnaire was administered by trained interviewers. In never smokers (46 percent of the cohort), the overall prevalence of chronic cough was 9 percent, chronic phlegm was 13 percent, attacks of wheezing with dyspnea were 8 percent, and grade 3 dyspnea on exertion was 10 percent. The prevalence of lung disease in current smokers (12 percent of the cohort) was 8/7 percent (men/women) with chronic bronchitis and 14/5 percent with emphysema. Overall, 6 percent reported asthma (a physician-confirmed history) and 12 percent reported hay fever. Using a logistic regression model, attacks of wheezing with dyspnea were strongly associated with a lower FEV1, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and a large waist size (in participants without a diagnosis of asthma, chronic bronchitis, or emphysema). Undiagnosed airways obstruction was twice as likely in women and those with lower income, and was associated with current and former smoking, pack-years of smoking, and chronic cough. Dyspnea on exertion (DOE) was three times or more likely if a participant reported heart failure, coronary heart disease, or emphysema; and much more likely if their FEV1 or FVC was substantially reduced. Dyspnea on exertion was also positively associated with older age, chronic bronchitis or asthma, a larger waist or hip size, pack-years of smoking, and less education. We conclude that DOE and attacks of wheezing with dyspnea are commonly associated with cardiovascular disease and a low FEV1 in those over 65 years and that airways obstruction frequently remains undiagnosed in the elderly.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, California, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Lung Diseases, Male, Maryland, Multivariate Analysis, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Prevalence, Prognosis, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Spirometry, Surveys and Questionnaires}, issn = {0012-3692}, author = {Enright, P L and Kronmal, R A and Higgins, M W and Schenker, M B and Haponik, E F} } @article {1454, title = {Carotid artery measures are strongly associated with left ventricular mass in older adults (a report from the Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Am J Cardiol}, volume = {77}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Mar 15}, pages = {628-33}, abstract = {

Associations of carotid artery diameter and intimal-medial thickness by ultrasound with echocardiographic left ventricular (LV) structure were examined in 3,409 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based study of risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke in men and women aged > or = 65 years. At baseline, sector-guided M-mode echocardiography and B-mode ultrasound were used to evaluate the left ventricle and carotid arteries, respectively. Common carotid artery diameter and intimal-medial thickness were significantly related to LV mass in correlational analysis (r=0.40 and 0.20, respectively, p<0.01), and each was independently associated with LV mass after adjustment for age, gender, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, prior coronary heart disease, electrocardiographic abnormalities, high-density lipoprotein, and factor VII. We speculate that changes in the arterial wall affect impedance to LV ejection leading to increases in LV mass. Further follow-up of this cohort is in progress and will help to determine whether such carotid artery measures could, by exacerbating LV hypertrophy, constitute another important risk factor for adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Carotid Arteries, Cohort Studies, Female, Heart Ventricles, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0002-9149}, author = {Kronmal, R A and Smith, V E and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Polak, J F and Gardin, J M and Manolio, T A} } @article {1465, title = {Current estrogen-progestin and estrogen replacement therapy in elderly women: association with carotid atherosclerosis. CHS Collaborative Research Group. Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {6}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Jul}, pages = {314-23}, abstract = {

The cardioprotective effects of combined estrogen/progestin replacement therapy have been questioned. Therefore, we have compared carotid arterial wall thickening and the prevalence of carotid stenosis in elderly women (> or = 65 years old) currently using replacement estrogen/progestins (E + P) with arterial pathology and its prevalence in women using unopposed estrogens (E). This cross-sectional study used baseline data from all 2962 women participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based study of coronary heart disease and stroke in elderly adults. Users of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were categorized as never (n = 1726), past (n = 787), current E (n = 280), or current E + P (n = 73). Maximal intimal-medial thicknesses of the internal and common carotid arteries and stenosis of the internal carotid arteries were measured by ultrasonography. Current E + P users resembled current E users in most respects, although some lifestyle factors were more favorable among E + P users. Current E + P use and current E use (as compared with no use) were associated with smaller internal carotid wall thicknesses (-0.22 mm; P = 0.003; and -0.09 mm; P = 0.05, respectively) and smaller common carotid wall thicknesses (-0.05 mm; P = 0.03; and -0.02 mm; P = 0.1, respectively) and lower odds ratios (OR) for carotid stenosis (> or = 1\% vs. 0\%); OR = 0.61; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 1.01; and OR = 0.91, 95\% CI: 0.67 to 1.24, respectively), after adjustment for current lifestyle and risk factors. When both groups of current HRT users were compared, there were no significant differences in carotid wall thicknesses or prevalence of carotid stenosis. For this sample of elderly women, both current E + P therapy and current E therapy were associated with decreased measures of carotid atherosclerosis. These measures did not differ significantly between the two groups of HRT users.

}, keywords = {Aged, Arteriosclerosis, Carotid Arteries, Carotid Stenosis, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Cross-Sectional Studies, Databases, Factual, Drug Therapy, Combination, Estrogen Replacement Therapy, Estrogens, Female, Health Status Indicators, Humans, Odds Ratio, Progestins, Reproductive History, Ultrasonography, United States, Women{\textquoteright}s Health}, issn = {1047-2797}, author = {Jonas, H A and Kronmal, R A and Psaty, B M and Manolio, T A and Meilahn, E N and Tell, G S and Tracy, R P and Robbins, J A and Anton-Culver, H} } @article {1463, title = {Short-term predictors of incident stroke in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {27}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Sep}, pages = {1479-86}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Risk factors for incident stroke have been examined in middle-aged persons, but less is known about stroke precursors in the elderly, who suffer the highest rates of stroke. Short-term risk factors for incident stroke were examined in a longitudinal, population-based study including extensive measures of subclinical disease.

METHODS: Prospective study of 5201 women and men aged 65 years and older was undertaken in the multicenter Cardiovascular Health Study.

RESULTS: During an average 3.31-year follow-up, 188 incident strokes occurred. Stroke incidence increased significantly with age and was similar in women and men. Factors associated with increased stroke risk in multivariate analysis included age, aspirin use, diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, higher systolic blood pressure, increased time needed to walk 15 ft. frequent falls, elevated creatinine level, abnormal left ventricular (LV) wall motion and increased LV mass on echocardiography, ultrasound-defined carotid stenosis, and atrial fibrillation. Increased LV mass and carotid stenosis were associated with twofold and threefold increases in incidences of stroke, respectively (P < .001). Aspirin users had a 52\% higher risk of stroke (relative risk, 1.52; 95\% confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.0; P < .007) after adjustment for other factors. This association was present only among aspirin users without prior coronary disease, atrial fibrillation, claudication, or transient ischemic attack, who had an 84\% higher risk (relative risk, 1.84; 95\% confidence interval, 1.2 to 2.8).

CONCLUSIONS: Short-term risk of stroke has a complex relationship with aspirin use and is strongly related to subclinical disease in this sample of older adults. These relationships should be considered in assessing stroke risk in the elderly, in whom recognized and subclinical cardiovascular disease is highly prevalent.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Cardiovascular Physiological Phenomena, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Female, Health Status, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Manolio, T A and Kronmal, R A and Burke, G L and O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Price, T R} } @article {1453, title = {Thickening of the carotid wall. A marker for atherosclerosis in the elderly? Cardiovascular Health Study Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {27}, year = {1996}, month = {1996 Feb}, pages = {224-31}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We investigated the relationships between prevalent coronary heart disease (CHD), clinically manifest atherosclerotic disease (ASD), and major established risk factors for atherosclerosis and intima-media thickness (IMT) in the common carotid arteries (CCA) and internal carotid arteries (ICA) separately and in combination in older adults. We wished to determine whether a noninvasive measurement can serve as an indicator of clinically manifest atherosclerotic disease and to determine which of the two variables, CCA IMT or ICA IMT, is a better correlate.

METHODS: IMT of the CCA and ICA was measured with duplex ultrasound in 5117 of 5201 individuals enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a study of the risk factors and the natural history of cardiovascular disease in adults aged 65 years or more. Histories of CHD, peripheral arterial disease, and cerebrovascular disease were obtained during baseline examination. Risk factors included cholesterol levels, cigarette smoking, elevated blood pressure, diabetes, age, and sex. Relationships between risk factors and IMT were studied by multiple regression analysis and canonical variate analysis. Prediction of prevalent CHD and ASD by IMT measurements in CCAs and ICAs were made by logistic regression, adjusting for age and sex.

RESULTS: IMT measurements of the CCAs and ICAs were greater in persons with CHD and ASD than those without, even after controlling for sex (P < .001). IMT measurements in the ICA were greater than those in the CCA. Risk factors for ASD accounted for 17\% and 18\% of the variability in IMT in the CCA and ICA, respectively. These same risk factors accounted for 25\% of the variability of a composite measurement consisting of the sum of the ICA IMT and CCA IMT. The ability to predict CHD and ASD was greater for ICA IMT (odds ratio [confidence interval]: 1.36 [1.31 to 1.41] and 1.35 [1.25 to 1.44], respectively) than for CCA IMT (1.09 [1.05 to 1.13] and 1.17 [1.09 to 1.25]).

CONCLUSIONS: Whereas CCA IMT is associated with major risk factors for atherosclerosis and existing CHD and ASD in older adults, this association is not as strong as that for ICA IMT. The combination of these measures relates more strongly to existing CHD and ASD and cerebrovascular disease risk factors than either taken alone.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Arteriosclerosis, Blood Pressure, Carotid Artery, Common, Carotid Artery, Internal, Cholesterol, HDL, Cholesterol, LDL, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Diabetic Angiopathies, Electrocardiography, Female, Humans, Male, Medical History Taking, Physical Examination, Prospective Studies, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Sex Characteristics, Smoking, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media, Ultrasonography}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Leary, D H and Polak, J F and Kronmal, R A and Savage, P J and Borhani, N O and Kittner, S J and Tracy, R and Gardin, J M and Price, T R and Furberg, C D} } @article {1488, title = {Incidence of and risk factors for atrial fibrillation in older adults.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {96}, year = {1997}, month = {1997 Oct 07}, pages = {2455-61}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) among older adults during 3 years of follow-up.

METHODS AND RESULTS: In this cohort study, 5201 adults > or = 65 years old were examined annually on four occasions between June 1989 and May 1993. At baseline, participants answered questionnaires and underwent a detailed examination that included carotid ultrasound, pulmonary function tests, ECG, and echocardiography. Subjects with a pacemaker or AF at baseline (n=357) were excluded. New cases of AF were identified from three sources: (1) annual self-reports, (2) annual ECGs, and (3) hospital discharge diagnoses. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to assess baseline risk factors as predictors of incident AF. Among 4844 participants, 304 developed a first episode of AF during an average follow-up of 3.28 years, for an incidence of 19.2 per 1000 person-years. The onset was strongly associated with age, male sex, and the presence of clinical cardiovascular disease. For men 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 years old, the incidences were 17.6 and 42.7, respectively, and for women, 10.1 and 21.6 events per 1000 person-years. In stepwise models, the use of diuretics, a history of valvular heart disease, coronary disease, advancing age, higher levels of systolic blood pressure, height, glucose, and left atrial size were all associated with an increased risk of AF. The use of beta-blockers and high levels of alcohol use, cholesterol, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were associated with a reduced risk of AF.

CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AF in older adults may be higher than estimated by previous population studies. Left atrial size appears to be an important risk factor, and the control of blood pressure and glucose may be important in preventing the development of AF.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Glucose, Blood Pressure, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hospital Records, Humans, Incidence, Male, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0009-7322}, author = {Psaty, B M and Manolio, T A and Kuller, L H and Kronmal, R A and Cushman, M and Fried, L P and White, R and Furberg, C D and Rautaharju, P M} } @article {1489, title = {Use of calcium channel blockers and breast carcinoma risk in postmenopausal women.}, journal = {Cancer}, volume = {80}, year = {1997}, month = {1997 Oct 15}, pages = {1438-47}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The use of calcium channel blockers in an elderly population recently was reported to be associated with the incidence of cancer. The Cardiovascular Health Study, a multisite observational cohort study, provided the opportunity to investigate the epidemiologic association between the use of calcium channel blockers and breast carcinoma risk in 3198 women age > or = 65 years.

METHODS: Standard questionnaires and clinical procedures were administered at four study sites annually from 1989-1990 to 1993-1994. Drug usage was assessed by a medication inventory and hospitalizations for 75 incident invasive breast carcinoma cases were identified using International Classification of Diseases-9 Clinical Modification codes. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess associations between incident breast carcinoma and the use of specific antihypertensive medication including calcium channel blockers.

RESULTS: In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, an elevated risk of breast carcinoma was associated with use of calcium channel blockers (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.57; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-4.49). This association persisted when the comparison group was users of other antihypertensive medication. No associations between the use of other antihypertensive medication with incident breast carcinoma were found. Associations were enhanced by assessment of high dose at baseline (HR: 4.42; 95\% CI, 1.37-14.27) and when calcium channel blockers were combined with estrogen use (HR: 4.48; 95\% CI, 1.58-12.75). The association was found to be strongest for the use of estrogens with immediate release calcium channel blockers (HR: 8.48; 95\% CI, 2.99-24.08).

CONCLUSIONS: Although the number of cases was limited in this observational study, associations found between the use of calcium channel blockers and incident invasive breast carcinoma warrant further investigation. Site specific carcinomas should be included as an outcome of ongoing and planned long term clinical trials using calcium channel blockers.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Breast Neoplasms, Calcium Channel Blockers, Cohort Studies, Estrogens, Female, Humans, Postmenopause, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {0008-543X}, author = {Fitzpatrick, A L and Daling, J R and Furberg, C D and Kronmal, R A and Weissfeld, J L} } @article {1504, title = {Aspirin use and incident stroke in the cardiovascular health study. CHS Collaborative Research Group.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {29}, year = {1998}, month = {1998 May}, pages = {887-94}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Randomized clinical trials testing aspirin in relatively low-risk, middle-aged people have consistently shown small increases in stroke associated with aspirin use. We analyzed the relationship between the regular use of aspirin and incident ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke among people aged 65 years or older participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

METHODS: We conducted a multivariate analysis of incident stroke rates in a prospectively assessed, observational cohort of 5011 elderly people followed for a mean of 4.2 years.

RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 72 years, and 58\% were women. Twenty-three percent used aspirin frequently, and 17\% used aspirin infrequently at study entry. Frequent aspirin use was associated with an increased rate of ischemic stroke compared with nonusers (relative risk= 1.6; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 2.2; P=0.001). After adjustment for other stroke risk factors, women who used aspirin frequently or infrequently at study entry had a 1.8-fold (95\% CI, 1.2 to 2.8) and 1.6-fold (95\% CI, 0.9 to 3.0) increased risk of ischemic stroke, respectively (P<0.01, test for trend), compared with nonusers. In men, aspirin use was not statistically significantly associated with stroke risk. Findings were similar when aspirin use in the years before the incident stroke was used in the modeling. Aspirin use at entry was also associated with a 4-fold (95\% CI, 1.6 to 10.0) increase in risk of hemorrhagic stroke for both infrequent and frequent users of aspirin (P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin use was associated with increased risks of ischemic stroke in women and hemorrhagic stroke overall in this elderly cohort, after adjustment for other stroke predictors. The possibility exists of confounding by reasons for aspirin use rather than cause and effect. Whether regular aspirin use increases stroke risk for elderly people without cardiovascular disease can only be determined by randomized clinical trials.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aspirin, Brain Ischemia, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cerebral Hemorrhage, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Cyclooxygenase Inhibitors, Dose-Response Relationship, Drug, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0039-2499}, author = {Kronmal, R A and Hart, R G and Manolio, T A and Talbert, R L and Beauchamp, N J and Newman, A} } @article {1498, title = {Risk factors for 5-year mortality in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {279}, year = {1998}, month = {1998 Feb 25}, pages = {585-92}, abstract = {

CONTEXT: Multiple factors contribute to mortality in older adults, but the extent to which subclinical disease and other factors contribute independently to mortality risk is not known.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the disease, functional, and personal characteristics that jointly predict mortality in community-dwelling men and women aged 65 years or older.

DESIGN: Prospective population-based cohort study with 5 years of follow-up and a validation cohort of African Americans with 4.25-year follow-up.

SETTING: Four US communities.

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5201 and 685 men and women aged 65 years or older in the original and African American cohorts, respectively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Five-year mortality.

RESULTS: In the main cohort, 646 deaths (12\%) occurred within 5 years. Using Cox proportional hazards models, 20 characteristics (of 78 assessed) were each significantly (P<.05) and independently associated with mortality: increasing age, male sex, income less than $50000 per year, low weight, lack of moderate or vigorous exercise, smoking for more than 50 pack-years, high brachial (>169 mm Hg) and low tibial (< or = 127 mm Hg) systolic blood pressure, diuretic use by those without hypertension or congestive heart failure, elevated fasting glucose level (>7.2 mmol/L [130 mg/dL]), low albumin level (< or = 37 g/L), elevated creatinine level (> or = 106 micromol/L [1.2 mg/dL]), low forced vital capacity (< or = 2.06 mL), aortic stenosis (moderate or severe) and abnormal left ventricular ejection fraction (by echocardiography), major electrocardiographic abnormality, stenosis of internal carotid artery (by ultrasound), congestive heart failure, difficulty in any instrumental activity of daily living, and low cognitive function by Digit Symbol Substitution test score. Neither high-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with mortality. After adjustment for other factors, the association between age and mortality diminished, but the reduction in mortality with female sex persisted. Finally, the risk of mortality was validated in the second cohort; quintiles of risk ranged from 2\% to 39\% and 0\% to 26\% for the 2 cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS: Objective measures of subclinical disease and disease severity were independent and joint predictors of 5-year mortality in older adults, along with male sex, relative poverty, physical activity, smoking, indicators of frailty, and disability. Except for history of congestive heart failure, objective, quantitative measures of disease were better predictors of mortality than was clinical history of disease.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Health Surveys, Humans, Male, Mortality, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {0098-7484}, author = {Fried, L P and Kronmal, R A and Newman, A B and Bild, D E and Mittelmark, M B and Polak, J F and Robbins, J A and Gardin, J M} } @article {1521, title = {Stroke risk in an elderly population with atrial fibrillation.}, journal = {J Gen Intern Med}, volume = {14}, year = {1999}, month = {1999 Jan}, pages = {56-9}, abstract = {

Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased risk of stroke, but the absolute rate of stroke varies widely depending on coexistent vascular disease. We assessed the stroke rate and predictive value of two published schemes for stroke risk stratification in a population-derived cohort of 259 elderly people with nonvalvular AF followed for a median of 5.3 years. The rate of ischemic stroke was 2.8\% per year (95\% confidence interval [CI] 1.9, 3.9). Thirty-one percent were predicted to be at low risk, and their stroke rate was 1.7\% per year (95\% CI 0.6, 3.8). Many people with AF in this population-derived cohort had relatively low rates of stroke. Further studies to reliably stratify stroke risk in patients with AF are needed.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Cohort Studies, Humans, Male, Poisson Distribution, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {0884-8734}, author = {Feinberg, W M and Kronmal, R A and Newman, A B and Kraut, M A and Bovill, E G and Cooper, L and Hart, R G} } @article {666, title = {Hypertension, heart rate, use of antihypertensives, and incident prostate cancer.}, journal = {Ann Epidemiol}, volume = {11}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 Nov}, pages = {534-42}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: Recent studies have reported conflicting results on a possible relationship between hypertension, heart rate, and prostate cancer. A model has been developed suggesting that high blood pressure and high heart rate may both be markers for increased central sympathetic nervous activity, which may result in androgen-mediated stimulation of prostate cancer growth.

METHODS: In this study we examined the associations between hypertension, heart rate, use of antihypertensive medications, and incident prostate cancer in a cohort of 2442 men. Data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), an NHLBI-sponsored observational study of adults age 65 or older in four U.S. communities, were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Seated systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured using a standardized protocol at the initial clinical examination and annually at follow-up visits. Medications data were transcribed by trained interviewers from prescription medication containers brought into the clinic by participants.

RESULTS: A total of 209 cases of incident prostate cancer were identified from either an ICD-9 code of 185 in hospital medical records (n = 130) or by self-report from annual surveillance interviews (n = 79). An average of 5.6 years of follow-up was available for analyses. No associations between blood pressure measures at entry into the study and prostate cancer were found, although these results may have been affected by subsequent treatment of hypertension. An association between resting heart rate (HR) equal to or greater than 80 beats per minute and incident prostate cancer was found compared to men with a rate of less than 60 beats per minute (HR: 1.6, 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-2.5). An inverse association was found between risk of incident prostate cancer and use of any antihypertensive medication (HR: 0.7, 95\% CI: 0.5-0.9). A test of heterogeneity found no difference between use of the specific classes of antihypertensive medication and the association with prostate cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS: These data tend to support the hypothesized causal pathway between vascular disease markers and prostate cancer.

}, keywords = {Aged, Antihypertensive Agents, Cohort Studies, Heart Rate, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Male, Proportional Hazards Models, Prostatic Neoplasms, Risk, United States}, issn = {1047-2797}, doi = {10.1016/s1047-2797(01)00246-0}, author = {Fitzpatrick, A L and Daling, J R and Furberg, C D and Kronmal, R A and Weissfeld, J L} } @article {655, title = {Usefulness of T-axis deviation as an independent risk indicator for incident cardiac events in older men and women free from coronary heart disease (the Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Am J Cardiol}, volume = {88}, year = {2001}, month = {2001 Jul 15}, pages = {118-23}, abstract = {

T-axis shift has been reported to be an indicator of increased mortality risk. We evaluated the association of spatial T-axis deviation with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events in older men and women free from clinically overt CHD. Spatial T-axis deviation was measured from the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram of a subgroup of 4,173 subjects considered free of CHD at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort study of risk factors for CHD and stroke in older men and women. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association of altered repolarization with the risk of incident CHD events. The prevalence of marked T-axis deviation (> or =45 degrees ) was 12\%. During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, there were 161 CHD deaths, 743 deaths from all causes, and 679 incident CHD events. Adjusting for demographic and clinical risk factors, including other electrocardiographic abnormalities, there was a nearly twofold excess risk of CHD death, and approximately a 50\% excess risk of incident CHD and all-cause mortality for those with marked T-axis deviation. From other electrocardiographic abnormalities, only QT prolongation was associated with excess risk for incident CHD comparable to that for abnormal T-axis deviation. These results suggest that T-axis deviation is an easily quantified marker for subclinical disease and an independent indicator for the risk of incident CHD events in older men and women free of CHD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Algorithms, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Electrocardiography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke, Survival Analysis}, issn = {0002-9149}, doi = {10.1016/s0002-9149(01)01604-6}, author = {Rautaharju, P M and Nelson, J C and Kronmal, R A and Zhang, Z M and Robbins, J and Gottdiener, J S and Furberg, C D and Manolio, T and Fried, L} } @article {696, title = {Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of lipoproteins and risk of coronary heart disease in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol}, volume = {22}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Jul 01}, pages = {1175-80}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: Relationships between incident cardiovascular disease and lipoprotein subclass measurements by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were evaluated in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) in a nested case-cohort analysis.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The case group consisted of 434 participants with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and angina diagnosed after entry to the study (1990 to 1995) and the comparison group, 249 "healthy" participants with no prevalent clinical or subclinical disease. By univariate analysis, the median levels for healthy participants versus participants with incident MI and angina were 0 versus 7 mg\% for small low density lipoprotein (LDL), 1501 versus 1680 nmol/L for the number of LDL particles, and 21.6 versus 21.3 for LDL size, and these values were significantly different between "healthy" participants and those with incident MI and angina for women but not men. The levels of less dense LDL, which is most of the total LDL cholesterol among women, was not related to incident MI and angina. For women, large high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), but not small HDLc, levels were significantly higher for healthy participants compared with levels for participants with MI and angina. For men and women, levels of total and very low density lipoprotein triglycerides were higher for the case group than for the healthy group. In multivariate models for women that included triglycerides and HDLc, the number of LDL particles (but not LDL size) remained significantly related to MI and angina.

CONCLUSIONS: Small LDL, the size of LDL particles, and the greater number of LDL particles are related to incident coronary heart disease among older women.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aging, Cardiovascular System, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Female, Health Status, Humans, Lipoproteins, HDL, Lipoproteins, LDL, Lipoproteins, VLDL, Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, Male, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, Biomolecular, Risk Factors, Sex Factors}, issn = {1524-4636}, doi = {10.1161/01.atv.0000022015.97341.3a}, author = {Kuller, Lewis and Arnold, Alice and Tracy, Russell and Otvos, James and Burke, Greg and Psaty, Bruce and Siscovick, David and Freedman, David S and Kronmal, Richard} } @article {704, title = {Relationship between coronary artery calcification and other measures of subclinical cardiovascular disease in older adults.}, journal = {Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol}, volume = {22}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Oct 01}, pages = {1674-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: In the Cardiovascular Health Study, subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CVD events in older adults. The extent to which this measure or its components reflect calcified coronary disease is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) was assessed with electron beam tomography in 414 participants without clinical CVD and examined using cut points (CAC> or =400 and CAC> or =800) and the log(CAC); 274 had subclinical CVD by ankle-arm index, ECG, or carotid ultrasound. Cut points for subclinical disease as previously defined in the Cardiovascular Health Study were examined as well as continuous measures to produce receiver operating characteristic curve curves. A low ankle-arm index was highly specific for a high CAC score. The internal carotid artery intima-media thickness was most strongly correlated with CAC (r=0.30) and was significantly related to both CAC cut points and to the log(CAC) score independently of all other measures.

CONCLUSIONS: In these community-dwelling older adults without clinical CVD, internal carotid artery intima-media thickness was most closely related to CAC. However, 17.5\% of those with a CAC> or =400 would be missed in the ascertainment of subclinical atherosclerosis using the previously published composite of subclinical atherosclerosis. Prospective follow-up will determine whether the CAC score improves prediction of CVD events over other noninvasive measures.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Calcinosis, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Stenosis, Cohort Studies, Coronary Artery Disease, Demography, Female, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Risk Factors, Sensitivity and Specificity, Sex Factors, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Tunica Intima, Tunica Media}, issn = {1524-4636}, doi = {10.1161/01.atv.0000033540.89672.24}, author = {Newman, Anne B and Naydeck, Barbara L and Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim and Edmundowicz, Daniel and O{\textquoteright}Leary, Daniel and Kronmal, Richard and Burke, Gregory L and Kuller, Lewis H} } @article {698, title = {Serum potassium level and dietary potassium intake as risk factors for stroke.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {59}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Aug 13}, pages = {314-20}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have found that low potassium intake and low serum potassium are associated with increased stroke mortality, but data regarding stroke incidence have been limited. Serum potassium levels, dietary potassium intake, and diuretic use in relation to risk for stroke in a prospectively studied cohort were investigated.

METHODS: The study comprised 5,600 men and women older than 65 years who were free of stroke at enrollment. Baseline data included serum potassium level, dietary potassium intake, and diuretic use. Participants were followed for 4 to 8 years, and the incidence and types of strokes were recorded. Low serum potassium was defined as less than 4.1 mEq/L, and low potassium intake as less than 2.4 g/d.

RESULTS: Among diuretic users, there was an increased risk for stroke associated with lower serum potassium (relative risk [RR]: 2.5, p < 0.0001). Among individuals not taking diuretics, there was an increased risk for stroke associated with low dietary potassium intake (RR: 1.5, p < 0.005). The small number of diuretic users with lower serum potassium and atrial fibrillation had a 10-fold greater risk for stroke compared with those with higher serum potassium and normal sinus rhythm.

CONCLUSIONS: A lower serum potassium level in diuretic users, and low potassium intake in those not taking diuretics were associated with increased stroke incidence among older individuals. Lower serum potassium was associated with a particularly high risk for stroke in the small number of diuretic users with atrial fibrillation. Further study is required to determine if modification of these factors would prevent strokes.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Diuretics, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Potassium, Potassium, Dietary, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke}, issn = {0028-3878}, doi = {10.1212/wnl.59.3.314}, author = {Green, D M and Ropper, A H and Kronmal, R A and Psaty, B M and Burke, G L} } @article {738, title = {The association between time since last meal and blood pressure in older adults: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Am Geriatr Soc}, volume = {51}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Jun}, pages = {824-8}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate a postprandial hypotensive (PPH) phenomenon in older adults.

DESIGN: Observational, prospective cohort study composed of baseline and nine follow-up visits.

SETTING: Cardiovascular Health Study, an epidemiological study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in older adults.

PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred eighty-eight community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older.

MEASUREMENTS: Blood pressure and time since last meal were recorded synchronously at baseline and at follow-up clinic visits. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations between time since last meal and blood pressure and to adjust variance estimates to account for repeated blood pressure measures within subjects across fasting times.

RESULTS: Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were lower in the first hour after the last meal and were progressively higher through the fourth hour after the last meal than blood pressures measured immediately after the last meal (0 hour: 133.7/68.8 mmHg; 1st hour: 130.1/66.6 mmHg; 4th hour: 136.5/71.1 mmHg). Changes were significant for systolic and diastolic measures (P <.001 for both). Exploratory analyses suggested that the systolic PPH association was more pronounced in women. Little evidence was found that the degree of systolic or diastolic PPH varied by age, race, prevalent cardiovascular disease, heart rate, ejection fraction, treated hypertension or diabetes mellitus, or body mass index.

CONCLUSION: These data support previous observations that there is a significant drop in blood pressure within 1 hour after a meal in older adults. Time since last meal may be an important factor to consider when measuring blood pressure in older adults, and perhaps national standards need to be set.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Eating, Female, Humans, Hypotension, Male, Postprandial Period, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Time Factors}, issn = {0002-8614}, doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2389.2003.51264.x}, author = {Smith, Nicholas L and Psaty, Bruce M and Rutan, Gale H and Lumley, Thomas and Yanez, David and Chaves, Paulo H M and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {733, title = {Beta2-adrenergic receptor polymorphisms and risk of incident cardiovascular events in the elderly.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {107}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Apr 22}, pages = {2021-4}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms at codons 16 and 27 of the beta2-adrenergic receptor have been associated with altered response to sympathetic stimulation. We examined these polymorphisms in relation to cardiovascular event risk in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 808 black and 4441 white participants (mean age, 73 years) were genotyped for the Arg16Gly and Gln27Glu polymorphisms of the beta2-adrenergic receptor. There were 702 incident coronary events, 438 ischemic strokes, and 1136 combined cardiovascular events during 7 to 10 years of follow-up. Allele frequencies differed by race but not by age or hypertension status. Glu27 carriers had a lower risk of coronary events than Gln27 homozygotes (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95\% CI, 0.70 to 0.95), and there was a suggestion of decreased risk among Gly16 carriers compared with Arg16 homozygotes (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95\% CI, 0.72 to 1.07). There was no association of beta2-adrenergic receptor genotype with ischemic stroke or combined cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS: The Glu27 allele of the beta2-adrenergic receptor was associated with a lower risk of incident coronary events in this elderly population.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Alleles, Brain Ischemia, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Coronary Disease, European Continental Ancestry Group, Follow-Up Studies, Gene Frequency, Humans, Incidence, Linkage Disequilibrium, Polymorphism, Genetic, Receptors, Adrenergic, beta-2, Risk Assessment, Stroke, United States}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/01.CIR.0000065231.07729.92}, author = {Heckbert, Susan R and Hindorff, Lucia A and Edwards, Karen L and Psaty, Bruce M and Lumley, Thomas and Siscovick, David S and Tang, Zhonghua and Durda, J Peter and Kronmal, Richard A and Tracy, Russell P} } @article {717, title = {Multiple imputation of baseline data in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {157}, year = {2003}, month = {2003 Jan 01}, pages = {74-84}, abstract = {

Most epidemiologic studies will encounter missing covariate data. Software packages typically used for analyzing data delete any cases with a missing covariate to perform a complete case analysis. The deletion of cases complicates variable selection when different variables are missing on different cases, reduces power, and creates the potential for bias in the resulting estimates. Recently, software has become available for producing multiple imputations of missing data that account for the between-imputation variability. The implementation of the software to impute missing baseline data in the setting of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a large, observational study, is described. Results of exploratory analyses using the imputed data were largely consistent with results using only complete cases, even in a situation where one third of the cases were excluded from the complete case analysis. There were few differences in the exploratory results across three imputations, and the combined results from the multiple imputations were very similar to results from a single imputation. An increase in power was evident and variable selection simplified when using the imputed data sets.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Analysis of Variance, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Cohort Studies, Data Collection, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Epidemiologic Studies, Female, Humans, Linear Models, Male, Mathematical Computing, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Software, Survival Analysis, United States, Ventricular Remodeling}, issn = {0002-9262}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwf156}, author = {Arnold, Alice M and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {789, title = {The relationship of fasting serum radioimmune insulin levels to incident coronary heart disease in an insulin-treated diabetic cohort.}, journal = {J Clin Endocrinol Metab}, volume = {89}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Jun}, pages = {2852-8}, abstract = {

It is not known whether insulin levels, in the setting of insulin treatment, are an independent risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). We studied a cohort of 116 insulin-treated individuals, 65 yr or older, who were followed for 5.6-9 yr. All were free of CHD at baseline. There were 47 incident CHD events. In Cox proportional hazards modeling, with fasting immune-reactive insulin levels as a continuous variable, the hazard ratio for CHD was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). When insulin levels were divided into intervals, those in the third interval [43-150 microU/ml (258-900 pmol/liter)] had an adjusted 30\% increased relative risk (95\% confidence interval, 0.57, 2.98) compared with those in the first interval [<20 microU/ml (<120 pmol/liter)]. Those in the fourth interval [151-400 microU/ml (906-2400 pmol/liter)] had an adjusted 5.6-fold increased risk (2.3-13.1; P < 0.0001). Approximately 15\% of the cohort had such elevated insulin levels. Immune-reactive insulin levels were strongly correlated with specific insulin, proinsulin, and insulin antibody levels. Markedly elevated fasting immune-reactive insulin levels were an independent risk factor for CHD in this study of insulin-treated older adults. These observational findings should be confirmed through larger prospective studies, given their implications for insulin therapy.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Fasting, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Incidence, Insulin, Male, Radioimmunoassay, Risk Factors}, issn = {0021-972X}, doi = {10.1210/jc.2003-031822}, author = {Kronmal, Richard A and Barzilay, Joshua I and Tracy, Russell P and Savage, Peter J and Orchard, Trevor J and Burke, Gregory L} } @article {772, title = {Traditional and novel risk factors in older adults: cardiovascular risk assessment late in life.}, journal = {Am J Geriatr Cardiol}, volume = {13}, year = {2004}, month = {2004 Mar-Apr}, pages = {69-80}, abstract = {

As a population-based, longitudinal study of nearly 6000 older American adults, the Cardiovascular Health Study provides an excellent opportunity to assess the roles of traditional and novel cardiovascular risk factors in the development of coronary heart disease. Cardiovascular Health Study investigators have analyzed both traditional risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, and smoking, and new risk factors, such as hemostatic factors, inflammatory markers, exposure to infectious agents, and genetic determinants. These analyses have led to several important conclusions. First, older adults without previous cardiovascular events have a tremendous burden of subclinical vascular disease, which may change how physicians view risk factor modification in this age group. Second, some traditional cardiovascular risk factors lose importance as predictors of cardiovascular disease among older adults. Third, even modest elevations in fasting blood glucose or systolic blood pressure-below the levels used to define diabetes or hypertension-may have prognostic implications. Fourth, novel cardiovascular risk factors may add further information about cardiovascular disease risk in older adults. Promising potential candidates identified in the Cardiovascular Health Study include markers of hemostatic activation, fibrinogen, factor VIII coagulant activity, C-reactive protein, and exposure to herpes simplex virus-1 and possibly chlamydia. Future Cardiovascular Health Study investigations will help to clarify which combination of traditional and newer risk factors provides the best estimate of cardiovascular risk for older adults.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Coagulation Factors, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Complications, Female, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Humans, Hypertension, Infections, Inflammation, Lipids, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Obesity, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, Smoking, United States}, issn = {1076-7460}, doi = {10.1111/j.1076-7460.2004.02123.x}, author = {Mukamal, Kenneth J and Kronmal, Richard A and Tracy, Russell P and Cushman, Mary and Siscovick, David S} } @article {883, title = {Genetic Susceptibility to Prostate Cancer: Prostate-specific Antigen and its Interaction with the Androgen Receptor (United States).}, journal = {Cancer Causes Control}, volume = {17}, year = {2006}, month = {2006 Mar}, pages = {187-97}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether directly observed prostate-specific antigen (PSA) promoter diploid haplotype, either alone or in conjunction with androgen receptor (AR) genotype, is associated with prostate cancer risk.

METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within the US population-based Cardiovascular Health Study cohort. Incident prostate cancers were identified by linkage to cancer registry records for the years 1989-2000. We genotyped 193 cases and 391 controls for the PSA -252 G/A and -158 G/A SNPs and the AR CAG microsatellite, and developed methods to directly determine proximal PSA promoter haplotypes. Exact logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and significance levels.

RESULTS: No significant associations were observed between PSA diplotype and prostate cancer overall. Short (< 20) AR CAG repeat lengths were associated with modest increases in the risk of prostate cancer (OR, 1.46; 95\% CI, 0.97-2.19; p = 0.071) that were significant for advanced disease (OR, 1.82; 95\% CI, 1.02-3.26; p = 0.044). Men who possessed two copies of the PSA*2 (-252G/-158G) haplotype and short AR CAG repeat lengths had a 4-fold (95\% CI, 1.05-20.75; exact p = 0.040) increased risk of prostate cancer, and a 7-fold (95\% CI, 1.25-39.78; exact p = 0.026) increased risk of advanced disease.

CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that the PSA*2*2 diplotype in combination with short AR CAG alleles increases a man{\textquoteright}s risk of developing prostate cancer. These findings support an etiologic role in prostate cancer of genetic interactions between polymorphisms that increase AR transactivation strength and those that alter the regulatory regions of target genes such as PSA that are responsive to androgen stimulation.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Tumor, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Genotype, Haplotypes, Humans, Male, Polymorphism, Genetic, Prostate-Specific Antigen, Prostatic Neoplasms, Receptors, Androgen, United States}, issn = {0957-5243}, doi = {10.1007/s10552-005-0454-8}, author = {Sieh, Weiva and Edwards, Karen L and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Srinouanprachanh, Sengkeo L and Farin, Fred M and Monks, Stephanie A and Kronmal, Richard A and Eaton, David L} } @article {1124, title = {Total and cause-specific mortality in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci}, volume = {64}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Dec}, pages = {1251-61}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Few cohort studies have adequate numbers of carefully reviewed deaths to allow an analysis of unique and shared risk factors for cause-specific mortality. Shared risk factors could be targeted for prevention of premature death and the study of longevity.

METHODS: A total of 5,888 community-dwelling persons aged 65 years or older living in four communities in the United States participated in the Cardiovascular Health Study cohort. Participants were initially recruited from 1989 to 1990; an additional 687 black participants were recruited in 1992-1993. The average length of follow-up was 16 years. Total and cause-specific mortality, including cardiovascular disease, stroke, cancer, dementia, pulmonary disease, infection, and other cause, were examined as outcomes. Variables previously associated with total mortality were examined for each cause of death using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS: Multiple risk factors were related to total mortality. When examining specific causes, many factors were related to cardiovascular death, whereas fewer were related to other causes. For most causes, risk factors were specific for that cause. For example, apolipoprotein E epsilon4 was strongly associated for dementia death and forced vital capacity with pulmonary death. Age, male sex, markers of inflammation, and cognitive function were related to multiple causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS: In these older adults, associations of risk factors with a given cause of death were related to specific deficits in that same organ system. Inflammation may represent a common pathway to all causes of death.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Chronic Disease, Cohort Studies, Female, Geriatric Assessment, Health Surveys, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Probability, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Severity of Illness Index, Sex Factors, Survival Analysis, United States}, issn = {1758-535X}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glp127}, author = {Newman, Anne B and Sachs, Michael C and Arnold, Alice M and Fried, Linda P and Kronmal, Richard and Cushman, Mary and Psaty, Bruce M and Harris, Tamara B and Robbins, John A and Burke, Gregory L and Kuller, Lewis H and Lumley, Thomas} } @article {1192, title = {Genome-wide association identifies OBFC1 as a locus involved in human leukocyte telomere biology.}, journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A}, volume = {107}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 May 18}, pages = {9293-8}, abstract = {

Telomeres are engaged in a host of cellular functions, and their length is regulated by multiple genes. Telomere shortening, in the course of somatic cell replication, ultimately leads to replicative senescence. In humans, rare mutations in genes that regulate telomere length have been identified in monogenic diseases such as dyskeratosis congenita and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, which are associated with shortened leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and increased risk for aplastic anemia. Shortened LTL is observed in a host of aging-related complex genetic diseases and is associated with diminished survival in the elderly. We report results of a genome-wide association study of LTL in a consortium of four observational studies (n = 3,417 participants with LTL and genome-wide genotyping). SNPs in the regions of the oligonucleotide/oligosaccharide-binding folds containing one gene (OBFC1; rs4387287; P = 3.9 x 10(-9)) and chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 4 gene (CXCR4; rs4452212; P = 2.9 x 10(-8)) were associated with LTL at a genome-wide significance level (P < 5 x 10(-8)). We attempted replication of the top SNPs at these loci through de novo genotyping of 1,893 additional individuals and in silico lookup in another observational study (n = 2,876), and we confirmed the association findings for OBFC1 but not CXCR4. In addition, we confirmed the telomerase RNA component (TERC) as a gene associated with LTL (P = 1.1 x 10(-5)). The identification of OBFC1 through genome-wide association as a locus for interindividual variation in LTL in the general population advances the understanding of telomere biology in humans and may provide insights into aging-related disorders linked to altered LTL dynamics.

}, keywords = {Cohort Studies, Genome-Wide Association Study, Genotype, Humans, Leukocytes, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Receptors, CXCR4, Telomere, Telomere-Binding Proteins}, issn = {1091-6490}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0911494107}, author = {Levy, Daniel and Neuhausen, Susan L and Hunt, Steven C and Kimura, Masayuki and Hwang, Shih-Jen and Chen, Wei and Bis, Joshua C and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Smith, Erin and Johnson, Andrew D and Gardner, Jeffrey P and Srinivasan, Sathanur R and Schork, Nicholas and Rotter, Jerome I and Herbig, Utz and Psaty, Bruce M and Sastrasinh, Malinee and Murray, Sarah S and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Province, Michael A and Glazer, Nicole L and Lu, Xiaobin and Cao, Xiaojian and Kronmal, Richard and Mangino, Massimo and Soranzo, Nicole and Spector, Tim D and Berenson, Gerald S and Aviv, Abraham} } @article {1247, title = {Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {170}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Nov 22}, pages = {1909-17}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.

METHODS: We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2\%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.

RESULTS: We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95\% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95\% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0\% (AGES) and 63.6\% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64\% of risk.

}, keywords = {African Continental Ancestry Group, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Algorithms, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Pressure, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Electrocardiography, Europe, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Systole, United States}, issn = {1538-3679}, doi = {10.1001/archinternmed.2010.434}, author = {Schnabel, Renate B and Aspelund, Thor and Li, Guo and Sullivan, Lisa M and Suchy-Dicey, Astrid and Harris, Tamara B and Pencina, Michael J and D{\textquoteright}Agostino, Ralph B and Levy, Daniel and Kannel, William B and Wang, Thomas J and Kronmal, Richard A and Wolf, Philip A and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Psaty, Bruce M and Benjamin, Emelia J and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R} } @article {1289, title = {Hospitalization for infection and risk of acute ischemic stroke: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {42}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Jul}, pages = {1851-6}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little is known about the acute precipitants of ischemic stroke, although evidence suggests infections contribute to risk. We hypothesized that acute hospitalization for infection is associated with the short-term risk of stroke.

METHODS: The case-crossover design was used to compare hospitalization for infection during case periods (90, 30, or 14 days before an incident ischemic stroke) and control periods (equivalent time periods exactly 1 or 2 years before stroke) in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort of 5888 elderly participants from 4 US sites. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95\% confidence intervals (95\% CIs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression. Confirmatory analyses assessed hazard ratios of stroke from Cox regression models, with hospitalization for infection as a time-varying exposure.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 669 incident ischemic strokes were observed in participants without a baseline history of stroke. Hospitalization for infection was more likely during case than control time periods; for 90 days before stroke, OR=3.4 (95\% CI, 1.8 to 6.5). The point estimates of risks were higher when we examined shorter intervals: for 30 days, OR=7.3 (95\% CI, 1.9 to 40.9), and for 14 days, OR=8.0 (95\% CI, 1.7 to 77.3). In survival analyses, risk of stroke was associated with hospitalization for infection in the preceding 90 days, adjusted hazard ratio=2.4 (95\% CI, 1.6 to 3.4).

CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization for infection is associated with a short-term increased risk of stroke, with higher risks observed for shorter intervals preceding stroke.

}, keywords = {Bacterial Infections, Brain Ischemia, Cardiology, Cohort Studies, Cross-Over Studies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Odds Ratio, Proportional Hazards Models, Regression Analysis, Risk, Stroke, Time Factors}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.608588}, author = {Elkind, Mitchell S V and Carty, Cara L and O{\textquoteright}Meara, Ellen S and Lumley, Thomas and Lefkowitz, David and Kronmal, Richard A and Longstreth, W T} } @article {1242, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with sudden cardiac death risk: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {8}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Feb}, pages = {228-33}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD), the cause of 250,000-450,000 deaths per year, is a major public health problem. The majority of those affected do not have a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure and mortality as well as with sudden death in women.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and SCD in the Cardiovascular Health Study population.

METHODS: The risk of SCD associated with baseline NT-proBNP was examined in 5,447 participants. Covariate-adjusted Cox model regressions were used to estimate the hazard ratios of developing SCD as a function of baseline NT-proBNP.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.5 years (maximum 16), there were 289 cases of SCD. Higher NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with SCD, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 4.2 (95\% confidence interval [2.9, 6.1]; P <.001) in the highest quintile compared with in the lowest. NT-proBNP remained associated with SCD even after adjustment for numerous clinical characteristics and risk factors (age, sex, race, and other associated conditions), with an adjusted hazard ratio for the fifth versus the first quintile of 2.5 (95\% confidence interval [1.6, 3.8]; P <.001).

CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP provides information regarding the risk of SCD in a community-based population of older adults, beyond other traditional risk factors. This biomarker may ultimately prove useful in targeting the population at risk with aggressive medical management of comorbid conditions.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution, Time Factors, United States}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2010.10.038}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Sotoodehnia, Nona and DeFilippi, Christopher and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {1375, title = {Telomere-associated polymorphisms correlate with cardiovascular disease mortality in Caucasian women: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Mech Ageing Dev}, volume = {133}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 May}, pages = {275-81}, abstract = {

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, it is unclear if LTL has an etiologic role in CVD. To gain insight into the LTL and CVD relationship, a cohort study of CVD mortality and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in OBFC1 and TERC, genes related to LTL, was conducted among 3271 Caucasian participants ages >=65 years enrolled 1989-1990 in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Leukocyte DNA was genotyped for SNPs in OBFC1 (rs4387287 and rs9419958) and TERC (rs3772190) that were previously associated with LTL through genome-wide association studies. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95\% confidence intervals (CIs). The OBFC1 SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.99), and both SNPs were similarly associated with CVD mortality in women. For women, there was a decreased risk of CVD death associated with the minor allele (rs4387287), HR=0.7; 95\% CI: 0.5-0.9 (CC vs. AC) and HR=0.5; 95\% CI: 0.20-1.4 (CC vs. AA) (P-trend <0.01). For men there was no association, HR=1.0; 95\% CI: 0.7-1.3 (CC vs. AC) and HR=1.7; 95\% CI: 0.8-3.6 (CC vs. AA) (P-trend=0.64). These findings support the hypothesis that telomere biology and associated genes may play a role in CVD-related death, particularly among women.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Humans, Leukocytes, Male, Polymorphism, Genetic, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Risk, RNA, Sex Factors, Telomerase, Telomere}, issn = {1872-6216}, doi = {10.1016/j.mad.2012.03.002}, author = {Burnett-Hartman, Andrea N and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Kronmal, Richard A and Psaty, Bruce M and Jenny, Nancy S and Bis, Josh C and Tracy, Russ P and Kimura, Masayuki and Aviv, Abraham} } @article {6001, title = {Blood pressure variability and the risk of all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident stroke in the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am J Hypertens}, volume = {26}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Oct}, pages = {1210-7}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have linked variability in visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure (SBP) to risk of mortality and stroke, independent of the effect of mean SBP level. This study aimed to evaluate whether variability in SBP is associated with all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction (MI), and incident stroke, independent of mean SBP or trends in SBP levels over time.

METHODS: The Cardiovascular Health Study is a longitudinal cohort study of vascular risk factors and disease in the elderly. Participants who attended their first 5 annual clinic visits and experienced no event before the 5th visit were eligible (n = 3,852). Primary analyses were restricted to participants not using antihypertensive medications throughout the first 5 clinic visits (n = 1,642). Intraindividual SBP variables were defined using each participant{\textquoteright}s 5-visit blood pressure measures. Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) per SD increase in intraindividual SBP variability, adjusted for intraindividual SBP mean and change over time.

RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of 9.9 years, there were 844 deaths, 203 MIs, and 195 strokes. Intraindividual SBP variability was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.13; 95\% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.21) and of incident MI (HR = 1.20; 95\%CI = 1.06-1.36), independent of the effect from adjustment factors. Intraindividual SBP variability was not associated with risk of stroke (HR = 1.03; 95\% CI = 0.89-1.21).

CONCLUSIONS: Long-term visit-to-visit SBP variability was independently associated with a higher risk of subsequent mortality and MI but not stroke. More research is needed to determine the relationship of BP variability with cardiovascular risk and the clinical implications.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Pressure, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Mortality, Myocardial Infarction, Risk, Stroke, United States}, issn = {1941-7225}, doi = {10.1093/ajh/hpt092}, author = {Suchy-Dicey, Astrid M and Wallace, Erin R and Mitchell, S V Elkind and Aguilar, Maria and Gottesman, Rebecca F and Rice, Kenneth and Kronmal, Richard and Psaty, Bruce M and Longstreth, W T} } @article {5997, title = {Effects of respiratory and non-respiratory factors on disability among older adults with airway obstruction: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {COPD}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Oct}, pages = {588-96}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: High rates of disability associated with chronic airway obstruction may be caused by impaired pulmonary function, pulmonary symptoms, other chronic diseases, or systemic inflammation.

METHODS: We analyzed data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a longitudinal cohort of 5888 older adults. Categories of lung function (normal; restricted; borderline, mild-moderate, and severe obstruction) were delineated by baseline spirometry (without bronchodilator). Disability-free years were calculated as total years alive and without self-report of difficulty performing \&γτ;1 Instrumental Activities of Daily Living over 6 years of follow-up. Using linear regression, we compared disability-free years by lung disease category, adjusting for demographic factors, body mass index, smoking, cognition, and other chronic co-morbidities. Among participants with airflow obstruction, we examined the association of respiratory factors (FEV1 and dyspnea) and non-respiratory factors (ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, muscle weakness, osteoporosis, depression and cognitive impairment) on disability-free years.

RESULTS: The average disability free years were 4.0 out of a possible 6 years. Severe obstruction was associated with 1 fewer disability-free year compared to normal spirometry in the adjusted model. For the 1,048 participants with airway obstruction, both respiratory factors (FEV1 and dyspnea) and non-respiratory factors (heart disease, coronary artery disease, diabetes, depression, osteoporosis, cognitive function, and weakness) were associated with decreased disability-free years.

CONCLUSIONS: Severe obstruction is associated with greater disability compared to patients with normal spirometery. Both respiratory and non-respiratory factors contribute to disability in older adults with abnormal spirometry.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Cognition Disorders, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Depression, Diabetes Mellitus, Disease Progression, Dyspnea, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Linear Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Muscle Weakness, Myocardial Ischemia, Osteoporosis, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Severity of Illness Index, Spirometry}, issn = {1541-2563}, doi = {10.3109/15412555.2013.781148}, author = {Locke, Emily and Thielke, Stephen and Diehr, Paula and Wilsdon, Anthony G and Barr, R Graham and Hansel, Nadia and Kapur, Vishesh K and Krishnan, Jerry and Enright, Paul and Heckbert, Susan R and Kronmal, Richard A and Fan, Vincent S} } @article {5878, title = {Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {2}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Mar 18}, pages = {e000102}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19\% African Americans, 81\% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95\% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95\% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95\% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95\% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95\% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.

CONCLUSION: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

}, keywords = {African Americans, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, European Continental Ancestry Group, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Iceland, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Netherlands, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Smoking, United States}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.112.000102}, author = {Alonso, Alvaro and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Stepas, Katherine A and Pencina, Michael J and Moser, Carlee B and Sinner, Moritz F and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Ellinor, Patrick T and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Benjamin, Emelia J} } @article {6669, title = {Association between hospitalization for pneumonia and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {313}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jan 20}, pages = {264-74}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) after infection is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hospitalization for pneumonia is associated with an increased short-term and long-term risk of CVD.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: We examined 2 community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5888; enrollment age, >=65 years; enrollment period, 1989-1994) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (ARIC, n = 15,792; enrollment age, 45-64 years; enrollment period, 1987-1989). Participants were followed up through December 31, 2010. We matched each participant hospitalized with pneumonia to 2 controls. Pneumonia cases and controls were followed for occurrence of CVD over 10 years after matching. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD at different time intervals, adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, subclinical CVD, comorbidities, and functional status.

EXPOSURES: Hospitalization for pneumonia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and fatal coronary heart disease).

RESULTS: Of 591 pneumonia cases in CHS, 206 had CVD events over 10 years after pneumonia hospitalization. CVD risk after pneumonia was highest in the first year. CVD occurred in 54 cases and 6 controls in the first 30 days (HR, 4.07; 95\% CI, 2.86-5.27); 11 cases and 9 controls between 31 and 90 days (HR, 2.94; 95\% CI, 2.18-3.70); and 22 cases and 55 controls between 91 days and 1 year (HR, 2.10; 95\% CI, 1.59-2.60). Additional CVD risk remained elevated into the tenth year, when 4 cases and 12 controls developed CVD (HR, 1.86; 95\% CI, 1.18-2.55). In ARIC, of 680 pneumonia cases, 112 had CVD over 10 years after hospitalization. CVD occurred in 4 cases and 3 controls in the first 30 days (HR, 2.38; 95\% CI, 1.12-3.63); 4 cases and 0 controls between 31 and 90 days (HR, 2.40; 95\% CI, 1.23-3.47); 11 cases and 8 controls between 91 days and 1 year (HR, 2.19; 95\% CI, 1.20-3.19); and 8 cases and 7 controls during the second year (HR, 1.88; 95\% CI, 1.10-2.66). After the second year, the HRs were no longer statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Hospitalization for pneumonia was associated with increased short-term and long-term risk of CVD, suggesting that pneumonia may be a risk factor for CVD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atherosclerosis, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Risk Factors}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.18229}, author = {Corrales-Medina, Vicente F and Alvarez, Karina N and Weissfeld, Lisa A and Angus, Derek C and Chirinos, Julio A and Chang, Chung-Chou H and Newman, Anne and Loehr, Laura and Folsom, Aaron R and Elkind, Mitchell S and Lyles, Mary F and Kronmal, Richard A and Yende, Sachin} } @article {8623, title = {A Dyadic Growth Modeling Approach for Examining Associations Between Weight Gain and Lung Function Decline.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {189}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 10 01}, pages = {1173-1184}, abstract = {

The relationship between body weight and lung function is complex. Using a dyadic multilevel linear modeling approach, treating body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) and lung function as paired, within-person outcomes, we tested the hypothesis that persons with more rapid increase in BMI exhibit more rapid decline in lung function, as measured by forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and their ratio (FEV1:FVC). Models included random intercepts and slopes and adjusted for sociodemographic and smoking-related factors. A sample of 9,115 adults with paired measurements of BMI and lung function taken at >=3 visits were selected from a pooled set of 5 US population-based cohort studies (1983-2018; mean age at baseline = 46 years; median follow-up, 19 years). At age 46 years, average annual rates of change in BMI, FEV1, FVC, and FEV1:FVC ratio were 0.22 kg/m2/year, -25.50 mL/year, -21.99 mL/year, and~-0.24\%/year, respectively. Persons with steeper BMI increases had faster declines in FEV1 (r~=~-0.16) and FVC (r~=~-0.26) and slower declines in FEV1:FVC ratio (r~=~0.11) (all P~values <~0.0001). Results were similar in subgroup analyses. Residual correlations were negative (P~<~0.0001), suggesting additional interdependence between BMI and lung function. Results show that greater rates of weight gain are associated with greater rates of lung function loss.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Humans, Linear Models, Lung, Middle Aged, Respiratory Function Tests, Weight Gain}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwaa059}, author = {Cornelius, Talea and Schwartz, Joseph E and Balte, Pallavi and Bhatt, Surya P and Cassano, Patricia A and Currow, David and Jacobs, David R and Johnson, Miriam and Kalhan, Ravi and Kronmal, Richard and Loehr, Laura and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Smith, Benjamin and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} }