@article {1195, title = {Prevalence of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis in the general population: an individual participant data meta-analysis.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {41}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Jun}, pages = {1294-7}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In the discussion on the cost-effectiveness of screening, precise estimates of severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis are vital. Accordingly, we assessed the prevalence of moderate and severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis by age and sex using pooled cohort data.

METHODS: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis (23 706 participants) of 4 population-based studies (Malm{\"o} Diet and Cancer Study, Troms{\o}, Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study). Outcomes of interest were asymptomatic moderate (> or =50\%) and severe carotid stenosis (> or =70\%).

RESULTS: Prevalence of moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis ranged from 0.2\% (95\% CI, 0.0\% to 0.4\%) in men aged <50 years to 7.5\% (5.2\% to 10.5\%) in men aged > or =80 years. For women, this prevalence increased from 0\% (0\% to 0.2\%) to 5.0\% (3.1\% to 7.5\%). Prevalence of severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis ranged from 0.1\% (0.0\% to 0.3\%) in men aged <50 years to 3.1\% (1.7\% to 5.3\%) in men aged > or =80. For women, this prevalence increased from 0\% (0.0\% to 0.2\%) to 0.9\% (0.3\% to 2.4\%).

CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis in the general population ranges from 0\% to 3.1\%, which is useful information in the discussion on the cost-effectiveness of screening.

}, keywords = {Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Carotid Stenosis, Female, Humans, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Severity of Illness Index, Sex Factors}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.581058}, author = {de Weerd, Marjolein and Greving, Jacoba P and Hedblad, Bo and Lorenz, Matthias W and Mathiesen, Ellisiv B and O{\textquoteright}Leary, Daniel H and Rosvall, Maria and Sitzer, Matthias and Buskens, Erik and Bots, Michiel L} } @article {6557, title = {Prediction of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis in the general population: identification of high-risk groups.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {45}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Aug}, pages = {2366-71}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Because of a low prevalence of severe carotid stenosis in the general population, screening for presence of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) is not warranted. Possibly, for certain subgroups, screening is worthwhile. The present study aims to develop prediction rules for the presence of ACAS (>50\% and >70\%).

METHODS: Individual participant data from 4 population-based cohort studies (Malm{\"o} Diet and Cancer Study, Troms{\o} Study, Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study; totaling 23 706 participants) were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine which variables predict presence of ACAS (>50\% and >70\%). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed, and bootstrapping was used to correct for overfitting.

RESULTS: Age, sex, history of vascular disease, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio, diabetes mellitus, and current smoking were predictors of stenosis (>50\% and >70\%). The calibration of the model was good confirmed by a nonsignificant Hosmer and Lemeshow test for moderate (P=0.59) and severe stenosis (P=0.07). The models discriminated well between participants with and without stenosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve corrected for over optimism of 0.82 (95\% confidence interval, 0.80-0.84) for moderate stenosis and of 0.87 (95\% confidence interval, 0.85-0.90) for severe stenosis. The regression coefficients of the predictors were converted into a score chart to facilitate practical application.

CONCLUSIONS: A clinical prediction rule was developed that allows identification of subgroups with high prevalence of moderate (>50\%) and severe (>70\%) ACAS. When confirmed in comparable cohorts, application of the prediction rule may lead to a reduction in the number needed to screen for ACAS.

}, keywords = {Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, Carotid Stenosis, Female, Humans, Life Style, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Registries, Risk, Smoking}, issn = {1524-4628}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.114.005145}, author = {de Weerd, Marjolein and Greving, Jacoba P and Hedblad, Bo and Lorenz, Matthias W and Mathiesen, Ellisiv B and O{\textquoteright}Leary, Daniel H and Rosvall, Maria and Sitzer, Matthias and de Borst, Gert Jan and Buskens, Erik and Bots, Michiel L} } @article {7846, title = {Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk - Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration.}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {13}, year = {2018}, month = {2018}, pages = {e0191172}, abstract = {

AIMS: Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS: From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95\% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93-1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89-1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07-1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05-1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05-1.20) in group C.

CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Female, Humans, Intersectoral Collaboration, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Risk Factors}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0191172}, author = {Lorenz, Matthias W and Gao, Lu and Ziegelbauer, Kathrin and Norata, Giuseppe Danilo and Empana, Jean Philippe and Schmidtmann, Irene and Lin, Hung-Ju and McLachlan, Stela and Bokemark, Lena and Ronkainen, Kimmo and Amato, Mauro and Schminke, Ulf and Srinivasan, Sathanur R and Lind, Lars and Okazaki, Shuhei and Stehouwer, Coen D A and Willeit, Peter and Polak, Joseph F and Steinmetz, Helmuth and Sander, Dirk and Poppert, Holger and Desvarieux, Mo{\"\i}se and Ikram, M Arfan and Johnsen, Stein Harald and Staub, Daniel and Sirtori, Cesare R and Iglseder, Bernhard and Beloqui, Oscar and Engstr{\"o}m, Gunnar and Friera, Alfonso and Rozza, Francesco and Xie, Wuxiang and Parraga, Grace and Grigore, Liliana and Plichart, Matthieu and Blankenberg, Stefan and Su, Ta-Chen and Schmidt, Caroline and Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka and Veglia, Fabrizio and V{\"o}lzke, Henry and Nijpels, Giel and Willeit, Johann and Sacco, Ralph L and Franco, Oscar H and Uthoff, Heiko and Hedblad, Bo and Suarez, Carmen and Izzo, Raffaele and Zhao, Dong and Wannarong, Thapat and Catapano, Alberico and Ducimetiere, Pierre and Espinola-Klein, Christine and Chien, Kuo-Liong and Price, Jackie F and Bergstr{\"o}m, G{\"o}ran and Kauhanen, Jussi and Tremoli, Elena and D{\"o}rr, Marcus and Berenson, Gerald and Kitagawa, Kazuo and Dekker, Jacqueline M and Kiechl, Stefan and Sitzer, Matthias and Bickel, Horst and Rundek, Tatjana and Hofman, Albert and Mathiesen, Ellisiv B and Castelnuovo, Samuela and Landecho, Manuel F and Rosvall, Maria and Gabriel, Rafael and de Luca, Nicola and Liu, Jing and Baldassarre, Damiano and Kavousi, Maryam and de Groot, Eric and Bots, Michiel L and Yanez, David N and Thompson, Simon G} }