@article {6301, title = {Lower estimated GFR and higher albuminuria are associated with adverse kidney outcomes. A collaborative meta-analysis of general and high-risk population cohorts.}, journal = {Kidney Int}, volume = {80}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Jul}, pages = {93-104}, abstract = {

Both a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria are known risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To determine their joint contribution to ESRD and other kidney outcomes, we performed a meta-analysis of nine general population cohorts with 845,125 participants and an additional eight cohorts with 173,892 patients, the latter selected because of their high risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD). In the general population, the risk for ESRD was unrelated to eGFR at values between 75 and 105 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) but increased exponentially at lower levels. Hazard ratios for eGFRs averaging 60, 45, and 15 were 4, 29, and 454, respectively, compared with an eGFR of 95, after adjustment for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors. Log albuminuria was linearly associated with log ESRD risk without thresholds. Adjusted hazard ratios at albumin-to-creatinine ratios of 30, 300, and 1000 mg/g were 5, 13, and 28, respectively, compared with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 5. Albuminuria and eGFR were associated with ESRD, without evidence for multiplicative interaction. Similar associations were found for acute kidney injury and progressive CKD. In high-risk cohorts, the findings were generally comparable. Thus, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria are risk factors for ESRD, acute kidney injury and progressive CKD in both general and high-risk populations, independent of each other and of cardiovascular risk factors.

}, keywords = {Aged, Albuminuria, Cohort Studies, Creatinine, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {1523-1755}, doi = {10.1038/ki.2010.531}, author = {Gansevoort, Ron T and Matsushita, Kunihiro and van der Velde, Marije and Astor, Brad C and Woodward, Mark and Levey, Andrew S and de Jong, Paul E and Coresh, Josef} } @article {6086, title = {Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without diabetes: a meta-analysis.}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {380}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Nov 10}, pages = {1662-73}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is characterised by low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria, and is associated with adverse outcomes. Whether these risks are modified by diabetes is unknown.

METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without diabetes.

FINDINGS: We analysed data for 1,024,977 participants (128,505 with diabetes) from 30 general population and high-risk cardiovascular cohorts and 13 chronic kidney disease cohorts. In the combined general population and high-risk cohorts with data for all-cause mortality, 75,306 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 8{\textperiodcentered}5 years (SD 5{\textperiodcentered}0). In the 23 studies with data for cardiovascular mortality, 21,237 deaths occurred from cardiovascular disease during a mean follow-up of 9{\textperiodcentered}2 years (SD 4{\textperiodcentered}9). In the general and high-risk cohorts, mortality risks were 1{\textperiodcentered}2-1{\textperiodcentered}9 times higher for participants with diabetes than for those without diabetes across the ranges of eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). With fixed eGFR and ACR reference points in the diabetes and no diabetes groups, HR of mortality outcomes according to lower eGFR and higher ACR were much the same in participants with and without diabetes (eg, for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1{\textperiodcentered}73 m(2) [vs 95 mL/min per 1{\textperiodcentered}73 m(2)], HR 1{\textperiodcentered}35; 95\% CI 1{\textperiodcentered}18-1{\textperiodcentered}55; vs 1{\textperiodcentered}33; 1{\textperiodcentered}19-1{\textperiodcentered}48 and at ACR 30 mg/g [vs 5 mg/g], 1{\textperiodcentered}50; 1{\textperiodcentered}35-1{\textperiodcentered}65 vs 1{\textperiodcentered}52; 1{\textperiodcentered}38-1{\textperiodcentered}67). The overall interactions were not significant. We identified much the same findings for ESRD in the chronic kidney disease cohorts.

INTERPRETATION: Despite higher risks for mortality and ESRD in diabetes, the relative risks of these outcomes by eGFR and ACR are much the same irrespective of the presence or absence of diabetes, emphasising the importance of kidney disease as a predictor of clinical outcomes.

FUNDING: US National Kidney Foundation.

}, keywords = {Aged, Albuminuria, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Diabetic Nephropathies, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors}, issn = {1474-547X}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61350-6}, author = {Fox, Caroline S and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Woodward, Mark and Bilo, Henk J G and Chalmers, John and Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers and Lee, Brian J and Perkins, Robert M and Rossing, Peter and Sairenchi, Toshimi and Tonelli, Marcello and Vassalotti, Joseph A and Yamagishi, Kazumasa and Coresh, Josef and de Jong, Paul E and Wen, Chi-Pang and Nelson, Robert G} } @article {6554, title = {Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {311}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Jun 25}, pages = {2518-2531}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of -57\% or greater) is a late event.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.

RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95\% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of -57\% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95\% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of -30\%. However, changes of -30\% or greater (6.9\% [95\% CI, 6.4\%-7.4\%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of -57\% (0.79\% [95\% CI, 0.52\%-1.06\%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99\% (95\% CI, 95\%-100\%) for estimated GFR change of -57\%, was 83\% (95\% CI, 71\%-93\%) for estimated GFR change of -40\%, and was 64\% (95\% CI, 52\%-77\%) for estimated GFR change of -30\% vs 18\% (95\% CI, 15\%-22\%) for estimated GFR change of 0\%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77\% (95\% CI, 71\%-82\%), 60\% (95\% CI, 56\%-63\%), and 50\% (95\% CI, 47\%-52\%) vs 32\% (95\% CI, 31\%-33\%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30\% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, Creatinine, Disease Progression, Endpoint Determination, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Reference Values, Risk}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.6634}, author = {Coresh, Josef and Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Sang, Yingying and Ballew, Shoshana H and Appel, Lawrence J and Arima, Hisatomi and Chadban, Steven J and Cirillo, Massimo and Djurdjev, Ognjenka and Green, Jamie A and Heine, Gunnar H and Inker, Lesley A and Irie, Fujiko and Ishani, Areef and Ix, Joachim H and Kovesdy, Csaba P and Marks, Angharad and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Shalev, Varda and Shankar, Anoop and Wen, Chi Pang and de Jong, Paul E and Iseki, Kunitoshi and Stengel, B{\'e}n{\'e}dicte and Gansevoort, Ron T and Levey, Andrew S} }