@article {6193, title = {Epidemiology and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors for pneumonia in community-dwelling older Americans: analysis of three cohorts.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {144}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Sep}, pages = {1008-1017}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals.

METHODS: This was a cohort study in three population-based cohorts of community-dwelling individuals. A derivation cohort (n = 16,260) was used to determine incidence and survival and develop a risk prediction model. The prediction model was validated in two cohorts (n = 8,495). The primary outcome was 10-year risk of pneumonia hospitalization.

RESULTS: The crude and age-adjusted incidences of pneumonia were 6.71 and 9.43 cases/1,000 person-years (10-year risk was 6.15\%). The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 16.5\% and 31.5\%. Although age was the most important risk factor (range of crude incidence rates, 1.69-39.13 cases/1,000 person-years for each 5-year increment from 45-85 years), 38\% of pneumonia cases occurred in adults \< 65 years of age. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 12.5\% and 25.7\% in those \< 65 years of age. Although most comorbidities were associated with higher risk of pneumonia, reduced lung function was the most important risk factor (relative risk = 6.61 for severe reduction based on FEV1 by spirometry). A clinical risk prediction model based on age, smoking, and lung function predicted 10-year risk (area under curve [AUC] = 0.77 and Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] C statistic = 0.12). Model discrimination and calibration were similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC = 0.77; HL C statistic, 0.65) but lower in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.62; HL C statistic, 0.45). The model also calibrated well in blacks and younger adults. C-reactive protein and IL-6 were associated with higher pneumonia risk but did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonia hospitalization is common and associated with high mortality, even in younger healthy adults. Long-term risk of pneumonia can be predicted in community-dwelling adults with a simple clinical risk prediction model.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Community-Acquired Infections, Comorbidity, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hospitalization, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Survival Rate, Time Factors}, issn = {1931-3543}, doi = {10.1378/chest.12-2818}, author = {Yende, Sachin and Alvarez, Karina and Loehr, Laura and Folsom, Aaron R and Newman, Anne B and Weissfeld, Lisa A and Wunderink, Richard G and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Mukamal, Kenneth J and London, Stephanie J and Harris, Tamara B and Bauer, Doug C and Angus, Derek C} } @article {6669, title = {Association between hospitalization for pneumonia and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {313}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jan 20}, pages = {264-74}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) after infection is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hospitalization for pneumonia is associated with an increased short-term and long-term risk of CVD.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: We examined 2 community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5888; enrollment age, >=65 years; enrollment period, 1989-1994) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (ARIC, n = 15,792; enrollment age, 45-64 years; enrollment period, 1987-1989). Participants were followed up through December 31, 2010. We matched each participant hospitalized with pneumonia to 2 controls. Pneumonia cases and controls were followed for occurrence of CVD over 10 years after matching. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD at different time intervals, adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, subclinical CVD, comorbidities, and functional status.

EXPOSURES: Hospitalization for pneumonia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and fatal coronary heart disease).

RESULTS: Of 591 pneumonia cases in CHS, 206 had CVD events over 10 years after pneumonia hospitalization. CVD risk after pneumonia was highest in the first year. CVD occurred in 54 cases and 6 controls in the first 30 days (HR, 4.07; 95\% CI, 2.86-5.27); 11 cases and 9 controls between 31 and 90 days (HR, 2.94; 95\% CI, 2.18-3.70); and 22 cases and 55 controls between 91 days and 1 year (HR, 2.10; 95\% CI, 1.59-2.60). Additional CVD risk remained elevated into the tenth year, when 4 cases and 12 controls developed CVD (HR, 1.86; 95\% CI, 1.18-2.55). In ARIC, of 680 pneumonia cases, 112 had CVD over 10 years after hospitalization. CVD occurred in 4 cases and 3 controls in the first 30 days (HR, 2.38; 95\% CI, 1.12-3.63); 4 cases and 0 controls between 31 and 90 days (HR, 2.40; 95\% CI, 1.23-3.47); 11 cases and 8 controls between 91 days and 1 year (HR, 2.19; 95\% CI, 1.20-3.19); and 8 cases and 7 controls during the second year (HR, 1.88; 95\% CI, 1.10-2.66). After the second year, the HRs were no longer statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Hospitalization for pneumonia was associated with increased short-term and long-term risk of CVD, suggesting that pneumonia may be a risk factor for CVD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atherosclerosis, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Risk Factors}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.18229}, author = {Corrales-Medina, Vicente F and Alvarez, Karina N and Weissfeld, Lisa A and Angus, Derek C and Chirinos, Julio A and Chang, Chung-Chou H and Newman, Anne and Loehr, Laura and Folsom, Aaron R and Elkind, Mitchell S and Lyles, Mary F and Kronmal, Richard A and Yende, Sachin} } @article {8623, title = {A Dyadic Growth Modeling Approach for Examining Associations Between Weight Gain and Lung Function Decline.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {189}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 10 01}, pages = {1173-1184}, abstract = {

The relationship between body weight and lung function is complex. Using a dyadic multilevel linear modeling approach, treating body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) and lung function as paired, within-person outcomes, we tested the hypothesis that persons with more rapid increase in BMI exhibit more rapid decline in lung function, as measured by forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and their ratio (FEV1:FVC). Models included random intercepts and slopes and adjusted for sociodemographic and smoking-related factors. A sample of 9,115 adults with paired measurements of BMI and lung function taken at >=3 visits were selected from a pooled set of 5 US population-based cohort studies (1983-2018; mean age at baseline = 46 years; median follow-up, 19 years). At age 46 years, average annual rates of change in BMI, FEV1, FVC, and FEV1:FVC ratio were 0.22 kg/m2/year, -25.50 mL/year, -21.99 mL/year, and~-0.24\%/year, respectively. Persons with steeper BMI increases had faster declines in FEV1 (r~=~-0.16) and FVC (r~=~-0.26) and slower declines in FEV1:FVC ratio (r~=~0.11) (all P~values <~0.0001). Results were similar in subgroup analyses. Residual correlations were negative (P~<~0.0001), suggesting additional interdependence between BMI and lung function. Results show that greater rates of weight gain are associated with greater rates of lung function loss.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Body Mass Index, Cohort Studies, Humans, Linear Models, Lung, Middle Aged, Respiratory Function Tests, Weight Gain}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwaa059}, author = {Cornelius, Talea and Schwartz, Joseph E and Balte, Pallavi and Bhatt, Surya P and Cassano, Patricia A and Currow, David and Jacobs, David R and Johnson, Miriam and Kalhan, Ravi and Kronmal, Richard and Loehr, Laura and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Smith, Benjamin and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} }