@article {6554, title = {Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {311}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Jun 25}, pages = {2518-2531}, abstract = {

IMPORTANCE: The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of -57\% or greater) is a late event.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.

RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95\% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of -57\% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95\% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of -30\%. However, changes of -30\% or greater (6.9\% [95\% CI, 6.4\%-7.4\%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of -57\% (0.79\% [95\% CI, 0.52\%-1.06\%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99\% (95\% CI, 95\%-100\%) for estimated GFR change of -57\%, was 83\% (95\% CI, 71\%-93\%) for estimated GFR change of -40\%, and was 64\% (95\% CI, 52\%-77\%) for estimated GFR change of -30\% vs 18\% (95\% CI, 15\%-22\%) for estimated GFR change of 0\%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77\% (95\% CI, 71\%-82\%), 60\% (95\% CI, 56\%-63\%), and 50\% (95\% CI, 47\%-52\%) vs 32\% (95\% CI, 31\%-33\%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30\% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, Creatinine, Disease Progression, Endpoint Determination, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Reference Values, Risk}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.6634}, author = {Coresh, Josef and Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Sang, Yingying and Ballew, Shoshana H and Appel, Lawrence J and Arima, Hisatomi and Chadban, Steven J and Cirillo, Massimo and Djurdjev, Ognjenka and Green, Jamie A and Heine, Gunnar H and Inker, Lesley A and Irie, Fujiko and Ishani, Areef and Ix, Joachim H and Kovesdy, Csaba P and Marks, Angharad and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Shalev, Varda and Shankar, Anoop and Wen, Chi Pang and de Jong, Paul E and Iseki, Kunitoshi and Stengel, B{\'e}n{\'e}dicte and Gansevoort, Ron T and Levey, Andrew S} } @article {9917, title = {Association Between Cigarette Smoking~and Subclinical Markers of Cardiovascular Harm.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {85}, year = {2025}, month = {2025 Mar 18}, pages = {1018-1034}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular harm.

OBJECTIVES: The study sought to explore the detailed relationships between smoking intensity, pack-years, and~time since cessation with inflammation, thrombosis, and subclinical atherosclerosis markers of cardiovascular harm.

METHODS: We included 182,364 participants (mean age 58.2 years, 69.0\% female) from 22 cohorts of the Cross Cohort Collaboration with self-reported smoking status, including smoking intensity and/or pack-years, and concurrent subclinical marker measurements. Markers were categorized into 3 domains: inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, glycoprotein acetylation), thrombosis (fibrinogen, D-dimer), and subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium, carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and ankle-brachial index). Utilizing multivariate regression models and restricted cubic splines, we assessed associations of smoking status, intensity, pack-years, time since cessation, and subclinical markers.

RESULTS: A total of 15.3\% of participants currently smoke (mean 16.7 cigarettes/day, mean 30.0 pack-years), and 34.6\% of participants formerly smoked (median 19.0 years since quitting, mean 22.4 pack-years). Participants with a history of smoking showed higher levels of all subclinical markers compared with those who have never smoked, with stronger associations observed in those currently smoke. Among participants who currently smoke, smoking intensity showed a clear dose-response relationship with all markers, except for D-dimer, specifically with incremental 1\% to 9\% higher levels of subclinical markers per 10 cigarettes. After 20 cigarettes, the patterns appeared to plateau for blood markers, while they continued to increase for atherosclerosis markers. Among those who have ever smoked, robust dose-response relationships were observed for pack-years with all subclinical markers, with incremental 1\% to 9\% higher levels per 10 pack-years. The dose-response effects persisted after 20 pack-years for all markers, though with a milder slope. Among participants who smoked formerly, there were substantially lower levels of biomarkers with longer time since quitting, and most markers were not different compared with those who have never smoked by 30 years, except for the coronary artery calcium score, which remained 19\% higher even beyond quitting after 30 years.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking-relevant parameters show strong and dose-response relationships across 3 domains of subclinical markers of cardiovascular harm. The sensitivity of the tested subclinical markers to small increments in cigarette exposure suggests potential value in the regulation of new and existing tobacco products.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atherosclerosis, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Cigarette Smoking, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2024.12.032}, author = {Yao, Zhiqi and Tasdighi, Erfan and Dardari, Zeina A and Jha, Kunal K and Osuji, Ngozi and Rajan, Tanuja and Boakye, Ellen and Rodriguez, Carlos J and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Simonsick, Eleanor M and Lima, Jo{\~a}o A C and Widome, Rachel and Cohen, Debbie L and Appel, Lawrence J and Khera, Amit and Hall, Michael E and Judd, Suzanne E and Cole, Shelley A and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Benjamin, Emelia J and Lotufo, Paulo A and Bensenor, Isabela M and El Khoudary, Samar R and Barinas-Mitchell, Emma and Janssen, Imke and Psaty, Bruce M and Eaton, Charles B and Lamonte, Michael J and Cawthon, Peggy M and Orwoll, Eric S and Irvin, Marguerite R and Bhatnagar, Aruni and DeFilippis, Andrew P and El-Shahaway, Omar and Blaha, Michael J} }