@article {6767, title = {Ventricular Ectopy as a Predictor of Heart Failure and Death.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {66}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jul 14}, pages = {101-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Studies of patients presenting for catheter ablation suggest that premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) are a modifiable risk factor for congestive heart failure (CHF). The relationship among PVC frequency, incident CHF, and mortality in the general population remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine whether PVC frequency ascertained using a 24-h Holter monitor is a predictor of a decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), incident CHF, and death in a population-based cohort.

METHODS: We studied 1,139 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants who were randomly assigned to 24-h ambulatory electrocardiography (Holter) monitoring and who had a normal LVEF and no history of CHF. PVC frequency was quantified using Holter studies, and LVEF was measured from baseline and 5-year echocardiograms. Participants were followed for incident CHF and death.

RESULTS: Those in the upper quartile versus the lowest quartile of PVC frequency had a multivariable-adjusted, 3-fold greater odds of a 5-year decrease in LVEF (odds ratio [OR]: 3.10; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 1.42 to 6.77; p = 0.005), a 48\% increased risk of incident CHF (HR: 1.48; 95\% CI: 1.08 to 2.04; p = 0.02), and a 31\% increased risk of death (HR: 1.31; 95\% CI: 1.06 to 1.63; p = 0.01) during a median follow-up of >13 years. Similar statistically significant results were observed for PVCs analyzed as a continuous variable. The specificity for the 15-year risk of CHF exceeded 90\% when PVCs included at least 0.7\% of ventricular beats. The population-level risk for incident CHF attributed to PVCs was 8.1\% (95\% CI: 1.2\% to 14.9\%).

CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based sample, a higher frequency of PVCs was associated with a decrease in LVEF, an increase in incident CHF, and increased mortality. Because of the capacity to prevent PVCs through medical or ablation therapy, PVCs may represent a modifiable risk factor for CHF and death.

}, keywords = {Aged, Catheter Ablation, Echocardiography, Electrocardiography, Ambulatory, Female, Forecasting, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Risk Factors, Stroke Volume, Ventricular Premature Complexes}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2015.04.062}, author = {Dukes, Jonathan W and Dewland, Thomas A and Vittinghoff, Eric and Mandyam, Mala C and Heckbert, Susan R and Siscovick, David S and Stein, Phyllis K and Psaty, Bruce M and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Gottdiener, John S and Marcus, Gregory M} }