@article {675, title = {Fasting and 2-hour postchallenge serum glucose measures and risk of incident cardiovascular events in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, volume = {162}, year = {2002}, month = {2002 Jan 28}, pages = {209-16}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The contributions of fasting and 2-hour postchallenge glucose level to cardiovascular events remain ill-defined, especially for nondiabetic adults. This study examined the relative predictive power of fasting and 2-hour glucose level on cardiovascular event risk.

METHODS: A total of 4014 community-dwelling adults 65 years or older who participated in the baseline visit of the Cardiovascular Health Study and who were without treated diabetes or previous myocardial infarction or stroke were eligible for analyses. Participants with treated diabetes at baseline were excluded. Incident myocardial infarction or stroke, or coronary death, was the outcome of interest. Age-, sex-, and race-adjusted proportional hazards regression models described individual and joint associations between baseline measures of fasting and 2-hour postchallenge glucose level and event risk.

RESULTS: There were 764 incident cardiovascular events during 8.5 years of follow-up. Fasting glucose level of 115 mg/dL (6.4 mmol/L) or more was associated with an increased cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66 [95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.39-1.98]) in adjusted analyses compared with fasting glucose level less than 115 mg/dL. Two-hour glucose level was associated with a linear risk (HR, 1.02 [95\% CI, 1.00-1.04] per 10 mg/dL [0.6 mmol/L]) that included an additional increase in risk for 2-hour glucose level of 154 mg/dL (8.5 mmol/L) or more (HR, 1.29 [95\% CI, 1.04-1.59]) in adjusted analyses. In joint fasting and 2-hour glucose models, only 2-hour glucose level remained predictive of event risk.

CONCLUSIONS: Two-hour glucose level was better than fasting glucose level alone at identifying older adults at increased risk of major incident cardiovascular events.

}, keywords = {Aged, Blood Glucose, Cardiovascular Diseases, Fasting, Female, Glucose Tolerance Test, Humans, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment, Stroke}, issn = {0003-9926}, doi = {10.1001/archinte.162.2.209}, author = {Smith, Nicholas L and Barzilay, Joshua I and Shaffer, Douglas and Savage, Peter J and Heckbert, Susan R and Kuller, Lewis H and Kronmal, Richard A and Resnick, Helaine E and Psaty, Bruce M} } @article {1194, title = {Validation of the health ABC heart failure model for incident heart failure risk prediction: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circ Heart Fail}, volume = {3}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Jul}, pages = {495-502}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The recently developed and internally validated Health ABC HF model uses 9 routinely available clinical variables to determine incident heart failure risk. In this study, we sought to externally validate the Health ABC HF model.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Observed 5-year incidence of heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for new-onset heart failure, was compared with 5-year risk estimates derived from the Health ABC HF model among participants without heart failure at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up, 400 of 5335 (7.5\%) participants developed heart failure over 5 years versus 364 (6.8\%) predicted by the Health ABC HF model (predicted-to-observed ratio, 0.90). Observed versus predicted 5-year heart failure probabilities were 3.2\% versus 2.8\%, 9.0\% versus 7.0\%, 15.9\% versus 13.7\%, and 24.6\% versus 30.8\% for the <5\%, 5\% to 10\%, 10\% to 20\%, and >20\% 5-year risk categories, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) was 14.72 (degrees of freedom, 10; P=0.14), and the C index was 0.74 (95\% CI, 0.72 to 0.76). Calibration and discrimination demonstrated adequate performance across sex and race overall; however, risk was underestimated in white men, especially in the 5\% to 10\% risk category. Model performance was optimal when participants with normal left ventricular function at baseline were assessed separately. Performance was consistent across age groups. Analyses with death as a competing risk yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS: The Health ABC HF model adequately predicted 5-year heart failure risk in a large community-based study, providing support for the external validity of the model. This tool may be used to identify individuals to whom to target heart failure prevention efforts.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Disease Progression, Echocardiography, Doppler, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Severity of Illness Index, Sex Distribution, Survival Analysis, United States}, issn = {1941-3297}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.109.904300}, author = {Kalogeropoulos, Andreas and Psaty, Bruce M and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki and Smith, Andrew L and Smith, Nicholas L and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Wilson, Peter W F and Newman, Anne B and Harris, Tamara B and Butler, Javed} }