@article {6092, title = {Genome-wide association studies identify CHRNA5/3 and HTR4 in the development of airflow obstruction.}, journal = {Am J Respir Crit Care Med}, volume = {186}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Oct 01}, pages = {622-32}, abstract = {

RATIONALE: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified loci influencing lung function, but fewer genes influencing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are known.

OBJECTIVES: Perform meta-analyses of GWAS for airflow obstruction, a key pathophysiologic characteristic of COPD assessed by spirometry, in population-based cohorts examining all participants, ever smokers, never smokers, asthma-free participants, and more severe cases.

METHODS: Fifteen cohorts were studied for discovery (3,368 affected; 29,507 unaffected), and a population-based family study and a meta-analysis of case-control studies were used for replication and regional follow-up (3,837 cases; 4,479 control subjects). Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV(1) and its ratio to FVC (FEV(1)/FVC) both less than their respective lower limits of normal as determined by published reference equations.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The discovery meta-analyses identified one region on chromosome 15q25.1 meeting genome-wide significance in ever smokers that includes AGPHD1, IREB2, and CHRNA5/CHRNA3 genes. The region was also modestly associated among never smokers. Gene expression studies confirmed the presence of CHRNA5/3 in lung, airway smooth muscle, and bronchial epithelial cells. A single-nucleotide polymorphism in HTR4, a gene previously related to FEV(1)/FVC, achieved genome-wide statistical significance in combined meta-analysis. Top single-nucleotide polymorphisms in ADAM19, RARB, PPAP2B, and ADAMTS19 were nominally replicated in the COPD meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest an important role for the CHRNA5/3 region as a genetic risk factor for airflow obstruction that may be independent of smoking and implicate the HTR4 gene in the etiology of airflow obstruction.

}, keywords = {Aged, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Genome-Wide Association Study, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Nerve Tissue Proteins, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Receptors, Nicotinic, Receptors, Serotonin, 5-HT4, Smoking, Vital Capacity}, issn = {1535-4970}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.201202-0366OC}, author = {Wilk, Jemma B and Shrine, Nick R G and Loehr, Laura R and Zhao, Jing Hua and Manichaikul, Ani and Lopez, Lorna M and Smith, Albert Vernon and Heckbert, Susan R and Smolonska, Joanna and Tang, Wenbo and Loth, Daan W and Curjuric, Ivan and Hui, Jennie and Cho, Michael H and Latourelle, Jeanne C and Henry, Amanda P and Aldrich, Melinda and Bakke, Per and Beaty, Terri H and Bentley, Amy R and Borecki, Ingrid B and Brusselle, Guy G and Burkart, Kristin M and Chen, Ting-Hsu and Couper, David and Crapo, James D and Davies, Gail and Dupuis, Jos{\'e}e and Franceschini, Nora and Gulsvik, Amund and Hancock, Dana B and Harris, Tamara B and Hofman, Albert and Imboden, Medea and James, Alan L and Khaw, Kay-Tee and Lahousse, Lies and Launer, Lenore J and Litonjua, Augusto and Liu, Yongmei and Lohman, Kurt K and Lomas, David A and Lumley, Thomas and Marciante, Kristin D and McArdle, Wendy L and Meibohm, Bernd and Morrison, Alanna C and Musk, Arthur W and Myers, Richard H and North, Kari E and Postma, Dirkje S and Psaty, Bruce M and Rich, Stephen S and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Rochat, Thierry and Rotter, Jerome I and Soler Artigas, Maria and Starr, John M and Uitterlinden, Andr{\'e} G and Wareham, Nicholas J and Wijmenga, Cisca and Zanen, Pieter and Province, Michael A and Silverman, Edwin K and Deary, Ian J and Palmer, Lyle J and Cassano, Patricia A and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Barr, R Graham and Loos, Ruth J F and Strachan, David P and London, Stephanie J and Boezen, H Marike and Probst-Hensch, Nicole and Gharib, Sina A and Hall, Ian P and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Tobin, Martin D and Stricker, Bruno H} } @article {6604, title = {Large-scale genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses of longitudinal change in adult lung function.}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {9}, year = {2014}, month = {2014}, pages = {e100776}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous loci influencing cross-sectional lung function, but less is known about genes influencing longitudinal change in lung function.

METHODS: We performed GWAS of the rate of change in forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) in 14 longitudinal, population-based cohort studies comprising 27,249 adults of European ancestry using linear mixed effects model and combined cohort-specific results using fixed effect meta-analysis to identify novel genetic loci associated with longitudinal change in lung function. Gene expression analyses were subsequently performed for identified genetic loci. As a secondary aim, we estimated the mean rate of decline in FEV1 by smoking pattern, irrespective of genotypes, across these 14 studies using meta-analysis.

RESULTS: The overall meta-analysis produced suggestive evidence for association at the novel IL16/STARD5/TMC3 locus on chromosome 15 (P  =  5.71 {\texttimes} 10(-7)). In addition, meta-analysis using the five cohorts with >=3 FEV1 measurements per participant identified the novel ME3 locus on chromosome 11 (P  =  2.18 {\texttimes} 10(-8)) at genome-wide significance. Neither locus was associated with FEV1 decline in two additional cohort studies. We confirmed gene expression of IL16, STARD5, and ME3 in multiple lung tissues. Publicly available microarray data confirmed differential expression of all three genes in lung samples from COPD patients compared with controls. Irrespective of genotypes, the combined estimate for FEV1 decline was 26.9, 29.2 and 35.7 mL/year in never, former, and persistent smokers, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: In this large-scale GWAS, we identified two novel genetic loci in association with the rate of change in FEV1 that harbor candidate genes with biologically plausible functional links to lung function.

}, keywords = {Adult, Chromosomes, Human, Pair 11, Female, Gene Expression Regulation, Genetic Loci, Genome-Wide Association Study, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Respiration}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0100776}, author = {Tang, Wenbo and Kowgier, Matthew and Loth, Daan W and Soler Artigas, Maria and Joubert, Bonnie R and Hodge, Emily and Gharib, Sina A and Smith, Albert V and Ruczinski, Ingo and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Mathias, Rasika A and Harris, Tamara B and Hansel, Nadia N and Launer, Lenore J and Barnes, Kathleen C and Hansen, Joyanna G and Albrecht, Eva and Aldrich, Melinda C and Allerhand, Michael and Barr, R Graham and Brusselle, Guy G and Couper, David J and Curjuric, Ivan and Davies, Gail and Deary, Ian J and Dupuis, Jos{\'e}e and Fall, Tove and Foy, Millennia and Franceschini, Nora and Gao, Wei and Gl{\"a}ser, Sven and Gu, Xiangjun and Hancock, Dana B and Heinrich, Joachim and Hofman, Albert and Imboden, Medea and Ingelsson, Erik and James, Alan and Karrasch, Stefan and Koch, Beate and Kritchevsky, Stephen B and Kumar, Ashish and Lahousse, Lies and Li, Guo and Lind, Lars and Lindgren, Cecilia and Liu, Yongmei and Lohman, Kurt and Lumley, Thomas and McArdle, Wendy L and Meibohm, Bernd and Morris, Andrew P and Morrison, Alanna C and Musk, Bill and North, Kari E and Palmer, Lyle J and Probst-Hensch, Nicole M and Psaty, Bruce M and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Rotter, Jerome I and Schulz, Holger and Smith, Lewis J and Sood, Akshay and Starr, John M and Strachan, David P and Teumer, Alexander and Uitterlinden, Andr{\'e} G and V{\"o}lzke, Henry and Voorman, Arend and Wain, Louise V and Wells, Martin T and Wilk, Jemma B and Williams, O Dale and Heckbert, Susan R and Stricker, Bruno H and London, Stephanie J and Fornage, Myriam and Tobin, Martin D and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Hall, Ian P and Cassano, Patricia A} } @article {6851, title = {Association of 25-Hydroxyvitamin D status and genetic variation in the vitamin D metabolic pathway with FEV1 in the Framingham Heart Study.}, journal = {Respir Res}, volume = {16}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, pages = {81}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D is associated with lung function in cross-sectional studies, and vitamin D inadequacy is hypothesized to play a role in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Further data are needed to clarify the relation between vitamin D status, genetic variation in vitamin D metabolic genes, and cross-sectional and longitudinal changes in lung function in healthy adults.

METHODS: We estimated the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and cross-sectional forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) in Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring and Third Generation participants and the association between serum 25(OH)D and longitudinal change in FEV1 in Third Generation participants using linear mixed-effects models. Using a gene-based approach, we investigated the association between 241 SNPs in 6 select vitamin D metabolic genes in relation to longitudinal change in FEV1 in Offspring participants and pursued replication of these findings in a meta-analyzed set of 4 independent cohorts.

RESULTS: We found a positive cross-sectional association between 25(OH)D and FEV1 in FHS Offspring and Third Generation participants (P=0.004). There was little or no association between 25(OH)D and longitudinal change in FEV1 in Third Generation participants (P=0.97). In Offspring participants, the CYP2R1 gene, hypothesized to influence usual serum 25(OH)D status, was associated with longitudinal change in FEV1 (gene-based P<0.05). The most significantly associated SNP from CYP2R1 had a consistent direction of association with FEV1 in the meta-analyzed set of replication cohorts, but the association did not reach statistical significance thresholds (P=0.09).

CONCLUSIONS: Serum 25(OH)D status was associated with cross-sectional FEV1, but not longitudinal change in FEV1. The inconsistent associations may be driven by differences in the groups studied. CYP2R1 demonstrated a gene-based association with longitudinal change in FEV1 and is a promising candidate gene for further studies.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, DNA-Binding Proteins, Female, Genetic Variation, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Massachusetts, Metabolic Networks and Pathways, Middle Aged, Nuclear Proteins, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Vitamin D}, issn = {1465-993X}, doi = {10.1186/s12931-015-0238-y}, author = {Hansen, J G and Gao, W and Dupuis, J and O{\textquoteright}Connor, G T and Tang, W and Kowgier, M and Sood, A and Gharib, S A and Palmer, L J and Fornage, M and Heckbert, S R and Psaty, B M and Booth, S L and Cassano, Patricia A} } @article {8097, title = {Discriminative Accuracy of FEV1:FVC Thresholds for COPD-Related Hospitalization and Mortality.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {321}, year = {2019}, month = {2019 06 25}, pages = {2438-2447}, abstract = {

Importance: According to numerous current guidelines, the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a ratio of the forced expiratory volume in the first second to the forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) of less than 0.70, yet this fixed threshold is based on expert opinion and remains controversial.

Objective: To determine the discriminative accuracy of various FEV1:FVC fixed thresholds for predicting COPD-related hospitalization and mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants: The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 4 US general population-based cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study; Cardiovascular Health Study; Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study; and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Participants aged 45 to 102 years were enrolled from 1987 to 2000 and received follow-up longitudinally through 2016.

Exposures: Presence of airflow obstruction, which was defined by a baseline FEV1:FVC less than a range of fixed thresholds (0.75 to 0.65) or less than the lower limit of normal as defined by Global Lung Initiative reference equations (LLN).

Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of COPD hospitalization and COPD-related mortality, defined by adjudication or administrative criteria. The optimal fixed FEV1:FVC threshold was defined by the best discrimination for these COPD-related events as indexed using the Harrell C statistic from unadjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Differences in C statistics were compared with respect to less than 0.70 and less than LLN thresholds using a nonparametric approach.

Results: Among 24 207 adults in the pooled cohort (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 63 [10.5] years; 12 990 [54\%] women; 16 794 [69\%] non-Hispanic white; 15 181 [63\%] ever smokers), complete follow-up was available for 11 077 (77\%) at 15 years. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 3925 participants experienced COPD-related events over 340 757 person-years of follow-up (incidence density rate, 11.5 per 1000 person-years), including 3563 COPD-related hospitalizations and 447 COPD-related deaths. With respect to discrimination of COPD-related events, the optimal fixed threshold (0.71; C statistic for optimal fixed threshold, 0.696) was not significantly different from the 0.70 threshold (difference, 0.001 [95\% CI, -0.002 to 0.004]) but was more accurate than the LLN threshold (difference, 0.034 [95\% CI, 0.028 to 0.041]). The 0.70 threshold provided optimal discrimination in the subgroup analysis of ever smokers and in adjusted models.

Conclusions and Relevance: Defining airflow obstruction as FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 provided discrimination of COPD-related hospitalization and mortality that was not significantly different or was more accurate than other fixed thresholds and the LLN. These results support the use of FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 to identify individuals at risk of clinically significant COPD.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Risk Assessment, Vital Capacity}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2019.7233}, author = {Bhatt, Surya P and Balte, Pallavi P and Schwartz, Joseph E and Cassano, Patricia A and Couper, David and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Yende, Sachin and Sanders, Jason L and Umans, Jason G and Dransfield, Mark T and Chaves, Paulo H and White, Wendy B and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} } @article {8402, title = {Lung function decline in former smokers and low-intensity current smokers: a secondary data analysis of the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.}, journal = {Lancet Respir Med}, volume = {8}, year = {2020}, month = {2020 01}, pages = {34-44}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease.

METHODS: We used data on six US population-based cohorts included in the NHLBI Pooled Cohort Study. We restricted the sample to participants with valid spirometry at two or more exams. Two cohorts recruited younger adults (>=17 years), two recruited middle-aged and older adults (>=45 years), and two recruited only elderly adults (>=65 years) with examinations done between 1983 and 2014. FEV decline in sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers by use of mixed models adjusted for sociodemographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (number of pack-years) and current (number of cigarettes per day) cigarette consumption.

FINDINGS: 25 352 participants (ages 17-93 years) completed 70 228 valid spirometry exams. Over a median follow-up of 7 years (IQR 3-20), FEV decline at the median age (57 years) was 31{\textperiodcentered}01 mL per year (95\% CI 30{\textperiodcentered}66-31{\textperiodcentered}37) in sustained never-smokers, 34{\textperiodcentered}97 mL per year (34{\textperiodcentered}36-35{\textperiodcentered}57) in former smokers, and 39{\textperiodcentered}92 mL per year (38{\textperiodcentered}92-40{\textperiodcentered}92) in current smokers. With adjustment, former smokers showed an accelerated FEV decline of 1{\textperiodcentered}82 mL per year (95\% CI 1{\textperiodcentered}24-2{\textperiodcentered}40) compared to never-smokers, which was approximately 20\% of the effect estimate for current smokers (9{\textperiodcentered}21 mL per year; 95\% CI 8{\textperiodcentered}35-10{\textperiodcentered}08). Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV decline was observed in former smokers for decades after smoking cessation and in current smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (<10 pack-years). With respect to current cigarette consumption, the effect estimate for FEV decline in current smokers consuming less than five cigarettes per day (7{\textperiodcentered}65 mL per year; 95\% CI 6{\textperiodcentered}21-9{\textperiodcentered}09) was 68\% of that in current smokers consuming 30 or more cigarettes per day (11{\textperiodcentered}24 mL per year; 9{\textperiodcentered}86-12{\textperiodcentered}62), and around five times greater than in former smokers (1{\textperiodcentered}57 mL per year; 1{\textperiodcentered}00-2{\textperiodcentered}14). Among participants without prevalent lung disease, associations were attenuated but were consistent with the main results.

INTERPRETATION: Former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers. These results suggest that all levels of smoking exposure are likely to be associated with lasting and progressive lung damage.

FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, and US Environmental Protection Agency.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Case-Control Studies, Ex-Smokers, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Lung, Male, Middle Aged, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (U.S.), Non-Smokers, Respiratory Physiological Phenomena, Smokers, Smoking, Spirometry, United States, Young Adult}, issn = {2213-2619}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(19)30276-0}, author = {Oelsner, Elizabeth C and Balte, Pallavi P and Bhatt, Surya P and Cassano, Patricia A and Couper, David and Folsom, Aaron R and Freedman, Neal D and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and Mathew, Amanda R and Kronmal, Richard A and Loehr, Laura R and London, Stephanie J and Newman, Anne B and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Schwartz, Joseph E and Smith, Lewis J and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin} } @article {9114, title = {Association Between Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry and Clinical Outcomes in US Adults.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {326}, year = {2021}, month = {2021 12 14}, pages = {2287-2298}, abstract = {

Importance: Chronic lung diseases are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Unlike chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, clinical outcomes associated with proportional reductions in expiratory lung volumes without obstruction, otherwise known as preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm), are poorly understood.

Objective: To examine the prevalence, correlates, and clinical outcomes associated with PRISm in US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants: The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study was a retrospective study with harmonized pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts (enrollment, 65 251 participants aged 18 to 102 years of whom 53 701 participants had valid baseline lung function) conducted from 1971-2011 (final follow-up, December 2018).

Exposures: Participants were categorized into mutually exclusive groups by baseline lung function. PRISm was defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second to forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) greater than or equal to 0.70 and FEV1 less than 80\% predicted; obstructive spirometry FEV1:FVC ratio of less than 0.70; and normal spirometry FEV1:FVC ratio greater than or equal to 0.7 and FEV1 greater than or equal to 80\% predicted.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, respiratory-related mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD)-related mortality, respiratory-related events (hospitalizations and mortality), and CHD-related events (hospitalizations and mortality) classified by adjudication or validated administrative criteria. Absolute risks were adjusted for age and smoking status. Poisson and Cox proportional hazards models comparing PRISm vs normal spirometry were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, body mass index, smoking status, cohort, and comorbidities.

Results: Among all participants (mean [SD] age, 53.2 [15.8] years, 56.4\% women, 48.5\% never-smokers), 4582 (8.5\%) had PRISm. The presence of PRISm relative to normal spirometry was significantly associated with obesity (prevalence, 48.3\% vs 31.4\%; prevalence ratio [PR], 1.68 [95\% CI, 1.55-1.82]), underweight (prevalence, 1.4\% vs 1.0\%; PR, 2.20 [95\% CI, 1.72-2.82]), female sex (prevalence, 60.3\% vs 59.0\%; PR, 1.07 [95\% CI, 1.01-1.13]), and current smoking (prevalence, 25.2\% vs 17.5\%; PR, 1.33 [95\% CI, 1.22-1.45]). PRISm, compared with normal spirometry, was significantly associated with greater all-cause mortality (29.6/1000 person-years vs 18.0/1000 person-years; difference, 11.6/1000 person-years [95\% CI, 10.0-13.1]; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.50 [95\% CI, 1.42-1.59]), respiratory-related mortality (2.1/1000 person-years vs 1.0/1000 person-years; difference, 1.1/1000 person-years [95\% CI, 0.7-1.6]; adjusted HR, 1.95 [95\% CI, 1.54-2.48]), CHD-related mortality (5.4/1000 person-years vs 2.6/1000 person-years; difference, 2.7/1000 person-years [95\% CI, 2.1-3.4]; adjusted HR, 1.55 [95\% CI, 1.36-1.77]), respiratory-related events (12.2/1000 person-years vs 6.0/1000 person-years; difference, 6.2/1000 person-years [95\% CI, 4.9-7.5]; adjusted HR, 1.90 [95\% CI, 1.69-2.14]), and CHD-related events (11.7/1000 person-years vs 7.0/1000 person-years; difference, 4.7/1000 person-years [95\% CI, 3.7-5.8]; adjusted HR, 1.30 [95\% CI, 1.18-1.42]).

Conclusions and Relevance: In a large, population-based sample of US adults, baseline PRISm, compared with normal spirometry, was associated with a small but statistically significant increased risk for mortality and adverse cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes. Further research is needed to explore whether this association is causal.

}, keywords = {Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Humans, Lung, Lung Diseases, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Retrospective Studies, Spirometry, United States, Vital Capacity}, issn = {1538-3598}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2021.20939}, author = {Wan, Emily S and Balte, Pallavi and Schwartz, Joseph E and Bhatt, Surya P and Cassano, Patricia A and Couper, David and Daviglus, Martha L and Dransfield, Mark T and Gharib, Sina A and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and London, Stephanie J and Navas-Acien, Ana and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George T and Sanders, Jason L and Smith, Benjamin M and White, Wendy and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} } @article {9156, title = {Pooled Cohort Probability Score for Subclinical Airflow Obstruction.}, journal = {Ann Am Thorac Soc}, volume = {19}, year = {2022}, month = {2022 08}, pages = {1294-1304}, abstract = {

Early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a public health priority. Airflow obstruction is the single most important risk factor for adverse COPD outcomes, but spirometry is not routinely recommended for screening. To describe the burden of subclinical airflow obstruction (SAO) and to develop a probability score for SAO to inform potential detection and prevention programs. Lung function and clinical data were harmonized and pooled across nine U.S. general population cohorts. Adults with respiratory symptoms, inhaler use, or prior diagnosis of COPD or asthma were excluded. A probability score for prevalent SAO (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70) was developed via hierarchical group-lasso regularization from clinical variables in strata of sex and smoking status, and its discriminative accuracy for SAO was assessed in the pooled cohort as well as in an external validation cohort (NHANES [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey] 2011-2012). Incident hospitalizations and deaths due to COPD (respiratory events) were defined by adjudication or administrative criteria in four of nine cohorts. Of 33,546 participants (mean age 52 yr, 54\% female, 44\% non-Hispanic White), 4,424 (13.2\%) had prevalent SAO. The incidence of respiratory events ( = 14,024) was threefold higher in participants with SAO versus those without (152 vs. 39 events/10,000 person-years). The probability score, which was based on six commonly available variables (age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, and smoking pack-years) was well calibrated and showed excellent discrimination in both the testing sample (C-statistic, 0.81; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.82) and in NHANES (C-statistic, 0.83; 95\% CI, 0.80-0.86). Among participants with predicted probabilities ⩾ 15\%, 3.2 would need to undergo spirometry to detect one case of SAO. Adults with SAO demonstrate excess respiratory hospitalization and mortality. A probability score for SAO using commonly available clinical risk factors may be suitable for targeting screening and primary prevention strategies.

}, keywords = {Adult, Female, Forced Expiratory Volume, Humans, Lung, Male, Middle Aged, Nutrition Surveys, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Risk Factors, Spirometry, Vital Capacity}, issn = {2325-6621}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.202109-1020OC}, author = {Bhatt, Surya P and Balte, Pallavi P and Schwartz, Joseph E and Jaeger, Byron C and Cassano, Patricia A and Chaves, Paulo H and Couper, David and Jacobs, David R and Kalhan, Ravi and Kaplan, Robert and Lloyd-Jones, Donald and Newman, Anne B and O{\textquoteright}Connor, George and Sanders, Jason L and Smith, Benjamin M and Sun, Yifei and Umans, Jason G and White, Wendy B and Yende, Sachin and Oelsner, Elizabeth C} }