@article {1034, title = {No advantage of A beta 42-lowering NSAIDs for prevention of Alzheimer dementia in six pooled cohort studies.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {70}, year = {2008}, month = {2008 Jun 10}, pages = {2291-8}, abstract = {

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies show reduced incidence of Alzheimer dementia (AD) in users of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). One hypothesis holds that the subset of NSAIDs known as selective A beta(42)-lowering agents (SALAs) is responsible for this apparent reduction in AD risk.

METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from six prospective studies to obtain a sufficient sample to examine AD risk in users of SALA vs non-SALA NSAIDs.

RESULTS: Of 13,499 initially dementia-free participants (70,863 person-years), 820 developed incident AD. Users of NSAIDs (29.6\%) showed reduced risk of AD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.77, 95\% CI 0.65-0.91). The point estimates were similar for SALAs (aHR 0.87, CI 0.72-1.04) and non-SALAs (aHR 0.75, CI 0.56-1.01). Because 573 NSAID users (14.5\%) reported taking both a SALA and non-SALA, we examined their use alone and in combination. Resulting aHRs were 0.82 (CI 0.67-0.99) for SALA only, 0.60 (CI 0.40-0.90) for non-SALA only, and 0.87 (CI 0.57-1.33) for both NSAIDs (Wald test for differences, p = 0.32). The 40.7\% of participants who used aspirin also showed reduced risk of AD, even when they used no other NSAIDs (aHR 0.78, CI 0.66-0.92). By contrast, there was no association with use of acetaminophen (aHR 0.93, CI 0.76-1.13).

CONCLUSIONS: In this pooled dataset, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use reduced the risk of Alzheimer dementia (AD). However, there was no apparent advantage in AD risk reduction for the subset of NSAIDs shown to selectively lower A beta(42), suggesting that all conventional NSAIDs including aspirin have a similar protective effect in humans.

}, keywords = {Acetaminophen, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Amyloid beta-Peptides, Analgesics, Non-Narcotic, Anti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-Steroidal, Aspirin, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Neuroprotective Agents, Peptide Fragments, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors}, issn = {1526-632X}, doi = {10.1212/01.wnl.0000313933.17796.f6}, author = {Szekely, C A and Green, R C and Breitner, J C S and {\O}stbye, T and Beiser, A S and Corrada, M M and Dodge, H H and Ganguli, M and Kawas, C H and Kuller, L H and Psaty, B M and Resnick, S M and Wolf, P A and Zonderman, A B and Welsh-Bohmer, K A and Zandi, P P} } @article {1025, title = {Plasma amyloid levels and the risk of AD in normal subjects in the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {70}, year = {2008}, month = {2008 May 06}, pages = {1664-71}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between incident Alzheimer disease (AD), and plasma A beta 1-40 and A beta 1-42 levels in normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects in a subgroup of participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study.

METHODS: We determined the plasma A beta 1-40 and A beta 1-42 levels of 274 nondemented subjects (232 normals and 42 with MCI) in 1998-1999 and repeated the measurements in 2002-2003. The mean age of the subjects at baseline was 79.3 +/- 3.6 years. We examined the association between A beta levels and incident AD over the ensuing 4.5 years, controlling for age, cystatin C level (marker of glomerular function), apolipoprotein E-4 allele, Modified-Mini-Mental State Examination scores, and MRI-identified infarcts.

RESULTS: In an unadjusted prospective model in normal subjects, both A beta 1-40 and A beta 1-42 levels in 1998-1999 were associated with incident AD (n = 55) in 2002-2003 (longitudinal analysis). In the fully adjusted multivariate model, neither A beta 1-42 nor A beta 1-40 nor their ratio was associated with incident AD. However, adjustment had a very small effect on point estimates for A beta 1-42, from an odds ratio (OR) of 1.61 (p = 0.007) in the unadjusted model to an OR of 1.46 (p = 0.08) in the fully adjusted model. In 2002-2003 (cross-sectional analysis), only the unadjusted models showed that both peptides were associated with AD.

CONCLUSIONS: Plasma A beta levels are affected by age and by systemic and CNS vascular risk factors. After controlling for these conditions, A beta-40 and A beta 1-42 are weak predictors of conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) in normal subjects and are only weakly associated with AD in cross-sectional analysis. Consequently, plasma levels of A beta do not seem to be useful biomarkers for AD.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Amyloid beta-Peptides, Apolipoprotein E4, Biomarkers, Brain, Cerebrovascular Disorders, Comorbidity, Cross-Sectional Studies, Cystatin C, Cystatins, Female, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Models, Statistical, Neuropsychological Tests, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Reference Values, Risk Factors}, issn = {1526-632X}, doi = {10.1212/01.wnl.0000306696.82017.66}, author = {Lopez, O L and Kuller, L H and Mehta, P D and Becker, J T and Gach, H M and Sweet, R A and Chang, Y F and Tracy, R and DeKosky, S T} } @article {1138, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is a major predictor of the development of atrial fibrillation: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {120}, year = {2009}, month = {2009 Nov 03}, pages = {1768-74}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac rhythm abnormality, is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenditures. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure, AF, and mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The relation between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and AF was studied in 5445 Cardiovascular Health Study participants with the use of relative risk regression for predicting prevalent AF and Cox proportional hazards for predicting incident AF. NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with prevalent AF, with an unadjusted prevalence ratio of 128 for the highest quintile (95\% confidence interval, 17.9 to 913.3; P<0.001) and adjusted prevalence ratio of 147 for the highest quintile (95\% confidence interval, 20.4 to 1064.3; P<0.001) compared with the lowest. After a median follow-up of 10 years (maximum of 16 years), there were 1126 cases of incident AF (a rate of 2.2 per 100 person-years). NT-proBNP was highly predictive of incident AF, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 5.2 (95\% confidence interval, 4.3 to 6.4; P<0.001) for the development of AF for the highest quintile compared with the lowest; for the same contrast, NT-proBNP remained the strongest predictor of incident AF after adjustment for an extensive number of covariates, including age, sex, medication use, blood pressure, echocardiographic parameters, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.0 (95\% confidence interval, 3.2 to 5.0; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based population of older adults, NT-proBNP was a remarkable predictor of incident AF, independent of any other previously described risk factor.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Humans, Immunoassay, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Prevalence, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors}, issn = {1524-4539}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.873265}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Ellinor, Patrick T and Heckbert, Susan R and Christenson, Robert H and DeFilippi, Christopher and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {1132, title = {Association between depressive symptoms and fibrosis markers: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Brain Behav Immun}, volume = {24}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Feb}, pages = {229-35}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: Fibrosis plays an important role in heart failure (HF) and other diseases that occur more frequently with increasing age. Depression is associated with an increased risk of heart failure and other age-related diseases. This study examined the association between depressive symptoms and fibrosis markers in adults aged 65 years and above.

METHODS: Fibrosis markers and depressive symptoms were assessed in 870 participants (age=80.9+/-5.9 yrs, 49\% women) using a case-control design based on heart failure status (307 HF patients and 563 age- and sex-matched controls, of whom 284 with CVD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or hypercholesterolemia) and 279 controls without these CVD risk factors). Fibrosis markers were procollagen type I (PIP), type I collagen (CITP), and procollagen type III (PIIINP). Inflammation markers included C-reactive protein, white blood cell counts and fibrinogen. Depression was assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale using a previously validated cut-off point for depression (CES-D > or = 8). Covariates included demographic and clinical variables.

RESULTS: Depression was associated with higher levels of PIP (median=411.0, inter-quartile range (IQR)=324.4-472.7 ng/mL vs. 387.6, IQR=342.0-512.5 ng/mL, p=0.006) and CITP (4.99, IQR=3.53-6.85 vs. 4.53, IQR=3.26-6.22 microg/L, p=0.024), but not PIIIINP (4.07, IQR=2.75-5.54 microg/L vs. 3.58, IQR=2.71-5.01 microg/L, p=0.29) compared to individuals without depression. Inflammation markers were also elevated in depressed participants (CRP, p=0.014; WBC, p=0.075; fibrinogen, p=0.074), but these inflammation markers did not account for the relationship between depression and fibrosis markers.

CONCLUSIONS: Depression is associated with elevated fibrosis markers and may therefore adversely affect heart failure and other age-related diseases in which extra-cellular matrix formation plays a pathophysiological role.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Cardiovascular Diseases, Collagen Type I, Depression, Electrocardiography, Endomyocardial Fibrosis, Fatigue, Female, Fibrosis, Health Surveys, Heart Failure, Humans, Inflammation Mediators, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors}, issn = {1090-2139}, doi = {10.1016/j.bbi.2009.09.017}, author = {Kop, Willem J and Kuhl, Emily A and Barasch, Eddy and Jenny, Nancy S and Gottlieb, Stephen S and Gottdiener, John S} } @article {1164, title = {Dynamic cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly people. The role of repeated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide testing.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {55}, year = {2010}, month = {2010 Feb 02}, pages = {441-50}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether serial measurement of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in community-dwelling elderly people would provide additional prognostic information to that from traditional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Accurate cardiovascular risk stratification is challenging in elderly people.

METHODS: NT-proBNP was measured at baseline and 2 to 3 years later in 2,975 community-dwelling older adults free of heart failure in the longitudinal CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study). This investigation examined the risk of new-onset heart failure (HF) and death from cardiovascular causes associated with baseline NT-proBNP and changes in NT-proBNP levels, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS: NT-proBNP levels in the highest quintile (>267.7 pg/ml) were independently associated with greater risks of HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.05; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 2.46 to 3.78) and cardiovascular death (HR: 3.02; 95\% CI: 2.36 to 3.86) compared with the lowest quintile (<47.5 pg/ml). The inflection point for elevated risk occurred at NT-proBNP 190 pg/ml. Among participants with initially low NT-proBNP (<190 pg/ml), those who developed a >25\% increase on follow-up to >190 pg/ml (21\%) were at greater adjusted risk of HF (HR: 2.13; 95\% CI: 1.68 to 2.71) and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.91; 95\% CI: 1.43 to 2.53) compared with those with sustained low levels. Among participants with initially high NT-proBNP, those who developed a >25\% increase (40\%) were at higher risk of HF (HR: 2.06; 95\% CI: 1.56 to 2.72) and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.88; 95\% CI: 1.37 to 2.57), whereas those who developed a >25\% decrease to

CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP levels independently predict heart failure and cardiovascular death in older adults. NT-proBNP levels frequently change over time, and these fluctuations reflect dynamic changes in cardiovascular risk.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2009.07.069}, author = {deFilippi, Christopher R and Christenson, Robert H and Gottdiener, John S and Kop, Willem J and Seliger, Stephen L} } @article {1330, title = {Left ventricular ejection fraction assessment in older adults: an adjunct to natriuretic peptide testing to identify risk of new-onset heart failure and cardiovascular death?}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {58}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Sep 27}, pages = {1497-506}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this paper was to determine whether assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) enhances prediction of new-onset heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality over and above N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Elevated NT-proBNP levels are common in older adults and are associated with increased risk of HF.

METHODS: NT-proBNP and LVEF were measured in 4,137 older adults free of HF. Repeat measures of NT-proBNP were performed 2 to 3 years later and echocardiography was repeated 5 years later (n = 2,375), with a median follow-up of 10.7 years. The addition of an abnormal (<55\%) LVEF (n = 317 [7.7\%]) to initially elevated or rising NT-proBNP levels was evaluated to determine risk of HF or cardiovascular mortality. Changes in NT-proBNP levels were also assessed for estimating the risk of conversion from a normal to abnormal LVEF.

RESULTS: For participants with a low baseline NT-proBNP level (<190 pg/ml; n = 2,918), addition of an abnormal LVEF did not improve the estimation of risk of HF and identified a moderate increase in adjusted risk for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio: 1.69 [95\% confidence interval: 1.22 to 2.31]). Among those whose NT-proBNP subsequently increased >=25\% to >=190 pg/ml, an abnormal LVEF was likewise associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality but not HF. Participants with an initially high NT-proBNP level (>=190 pg/ml) were at greater risk overall for both outcomes, and those with an abnormal LVEF were at the highest risk. However, an abnormal LVEF did not improve model classification or risk stratification for either endpoint when added to demographic factors and change in NT-proBNP. An initially elevated NT-proBNP or rising level was associated with an increased risk of developing an abnormal LVEF.

CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of LVEF in HF-free older adults based on NT-proBNP levels should be considered on an individual basis, as such assessments do not routinely improve prognostication.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, Cohort Studies, Death, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Stroke Volume, Survival Rate, Ventricular Function, Left}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2011.06.042}, author = {deFilippi, Christopher R and Christenson, Robert H and Kop, Willem J and Gottdiener, John S and Zhan, Min and Seliger, Stephen L} } @article {1242, title = {N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with sudden cardiac death risk: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Heart Rhythm}, volume = {8}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Feb}, pages = {228-33}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD), the cause of 250,000-450,000 deaths per year, is a major public health problem. The majority of those affected do not have a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure and mortality as well as with sudden death in women.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and SCD in the Cardiovascular Health Study population.

METHODS: The risk of SCD associated with baseline NT-proBNP was examined in 5,447 participants. Covariate-adjusted Cox model regressions were used to estimate the hazard ratios of developing SCD as a function of baseline NT-proBNP.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.5 years (maximum 16), there were 289 cases of SCD. Higher NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with SCD, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 4.2 (95\% confidence interval [2.9, 6.1]; P <.001) in the highest quintile compared with in the lowest. NT-proBNP remained associated with SCD even after adjustment for numerous clinical characteristics and risk factors (age, sex, race, and other associated conditions), with an adjusted hazard ratio for the fifth versus the first quintile of 2.5 (95\% confidence interval [1.6, 3.8]; P <.001).

CONCLUSION: NT-proBNP provides information regarding the risk of SCD in a community-based population of older adults, beyond other traditional risk factors. This biomarker may ultimately prove useful in targeting the population at risk with aggressive medical management of comorbid conditions.

}, keywords = {Age Distribution, Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Female, Humans, Incidence, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Proportional Hazards Models, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution, Time Factors, United States}, issn = {1556-3871}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2010.10.038}, author = {Patton, Kristen K and Sotoodehnia, Nona and DeFilippi, Christopher and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Kronmal, Richard A} } @article {1321, title = {The relationship between serum markers of collagen turnover and cardiovascular outcome in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Circ Heart Fail}, volume = {4}, year = {2011}, month = {2011 Nov}, pages = {733-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: The deposition of collagen fibrils in the myocardial extracellular matrix increases with age and plays a key role in the pathophysiology of heart failure (HF). We sought to determine the predictive value of serum markers of collagen turnover for incident HF and cardiovascular (CV) morbidity, mortality, and all-cause mortality in elderly individuals.

METHODS AND RESULTS: In 880 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (mean age, 77{\textpm}6 years; 48\% women), serum levels of carboxyl-terminal peptide of procollagen type I (PIP), carboxyl-terminal telopeptide of collagen type I (CITP), and amino-terminal peptide of procollagen type III (PIIINP) were measured in 4 groups: HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF; n=146, EF <55\%); HF with preserved EF (HFPEF; n=175, EF >=55\%), control subjects with CV risk factors but not HF (CVD; n=280), and healthy control subjects free of CV disease (n=279). Relationships between these serum markers and outcome at follow-up of 12{\textpm}4 years (range, 3-17 years) was determined in six models including those adjusted for conventional risk factors, renal function, NT-proBNP and agents which interfere with collagen synthesis. For the entire cohort, in unadjusted and adjusted models, both PIIINP and CITP were associated with myocardial infarction, incident HF, hospitalization for HF, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. In healthy control subjects, CITP and PIIINP were associated with all-cause death. In control subjects with risk factors, CITP was associated with incident HF, and in participants with HFPEF, CITP was associated with hospitalization for HF. No collagen biomarker was associated with outcome in participants with HFREF, and PIP was not associated with outcome in the cohort or its subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS: In both healthy and elderly individuals with CV disease at risk of developing HF, CITP and PIIINP are significantly associated with multiple adverse cardiac outcomes including myocardial infarction, HF, and death. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005133.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Case-Control Studies, Cohort Studies, Collagen, Collagen Type I, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Peptide Fragments, Peptides, Predictive Value of Tests, Procollagen, Prospective Studies, Stroke Volume, Survival Rate}, issn = {1941-3297}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.111.962027}, author = {Barasch, Eddy and Gottdiener, John S and Aurigemma, Gerard and Kitzman, Dalane W and Han, Jing and Kop, Willem J and Tracy, Russell P} } @article {1389, title = {Cardiac microinjury measured by troponin T predicts collagen metabolism in adults aged >=65 years with heart failure.}, journal = {Circ Heart Fail}, volume = {5}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Jul 01}, pages = {406-13}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Repeated myocardial microinjuries lead to collagen deposition and fibrosis, thereby increasing the risk of clinical heart failure. Little is known about the longitudinal association between increases in myocardial injury and the biology of collagen synthesis and deposition.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Repeated measures of highly sensitive cardiac troponin T (cTnT) were obtained in participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study (N=353; mean age, 74{\textpm}6 years; 52\% women) at baseline and at 3 years follow-up. Biomarkers of collagen metabolism were obtained at follow-up and included carboxyterminal propeptide of procollagen type I, carboxyterminal telopeptide of type I collagen, and aminoterminal propeptide of procollagen III. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to examine the association between baseline cTnT and changes in cTnT with collagen metabolism markers at follow-up adjusting for demographics, heart failure status, and cardiovascular risk factors. Results indicated that cTnT increases over 3-years were significantly associated with higher levels of carboxyterminal telopeptide of type I collagen (β=0.22, P<0.001) and aminoterminal propeptide of procollagen III (β=0.12, P=0.035) at follow-up when adjusting for demographic, clinical, and biochemical covariates including baseline cTnT. These associations were stronger in patients with heart failure than in control subjects. Conclusions- Increases in myocardial microinjury measured by changes in cTnT adversely affect markers of collagen metabolism. These findings are important to the biology of myocardial fibrosis and tissue repair. Serial evaluation of cTnT combined with collagen metabolism markers may further elucidate the pathophysiology of heart failure.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, Case-Control Studies, Chi-Square Distribution, Collagen, Collagen Type I, Female, Fibrosis, Heart Failure, Humans, Linear Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Myocardium, Peptide Fragments, Peptides, Predictive Value of Tests, Procollagen, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Troponin T, Up-Regulation}, issn = {1941-3297}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.111.965327}, author = {Kop, Willem J and Gottdiener, John S and deFilippi, Christopher R and Barasch, Eddy and Seliger, Stephen L and Jenny, Nancy S and Christenson, Robert H} } @article {1337, title = {Echocardiographic diastolic parameters and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Eur Heart J}, volume = {33}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Apr}, pages = {904-12}, abstract = {

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in the elderly, and shares several risk factors with diastolic dysfunction, including hypertension and advanced age. The purpose of this study is to examine diastolic dysfunction as a risk for incident AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the association of echocardiographic parameters of diastolic function with the incidence of AF in 4480 participants enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study, an ongoing cohort of community-dwelling older adults from four US communities. Participants underwent baseline echocardiography in 1989-1990 and were followed for incident AF on routine follow-up and hospitalizations. After 50 941 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up time 12.1 years), 1219 participants developed AF. In multivariable-adjusted age-stratified Cox models, diastolic echocardiographic parameters were significantly associated with the risk of incident AF. The most significant parameters were the Doppler peak E-wave velocity and left atrial diameter, which demonstrated a positive nonlinear association [HR 1.5 (CI 1.3-1.9) and HR 1.7 (CI 1.4-2.1) for highest vs. lowest quintile, respectively], and Doppler A-wave velocity time integral, which displayed a U-shaped relationship with the risk of AF [HR 0.7 (CI 0.6-0.9) for middle vs. lowest quintile]. Each diastolic parameter displayed a significant association with adjusted NT-proBNP levels, although the nature of the association did not entirely parallel the risk of AF. Further cluster analysis revealed unique patterns of diastolic function that may identify patients at risk for AF.

CONCLUSION: In a community-based population of older adults, echocardiographic measures of diastolic function are significantly associated with an increased risk of AF.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Blood Flow Velocity, Diastole, Echocardiography, Doppler, Female, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Risk Factors, United States, Ventricular Dysfunction, Left}, issn = {1522-9645}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehr378}, author = {Rosenberg, Michael A and Gottdiener, John S and Heckbert, Susan R and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {1365, title = {Echocardiography, natriuretic peptides, and risk for incident heart failure in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {JACC Cardiovasc Imaging}, volume = {5}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Feb}, pages = {131-40}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine the potential utility of echocardiography and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) for heart failure (HF) risk stratification in concert with a validated clinical HF risk score in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Without clinical guidance, echocardiography and natriuretic peptides have suboptimal test characteristics for population-wide HF risk stratification. However, the value of these tests has not been examined in concert with a clinical HF risk score.

METHODS: We evaluated the improvement in 5-year HF risk prediction offered by adding an echocardiographic score and/or NT-proBNP levels to the clinical Health Aging and Body Composition (ABC) HF risk score (base model) in 3,752 participants of the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) (age 72.6 {\textpm} 5.4 years; 40.8\% men; 86.5\% white). The echocardiographic score was derived as the weighted sum of independent echocardiographic predictors of HF. We assessed changes in Bayesian information criterion (BIC), C index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We examined also the weighted NRI across baseline HF risk categories under multiple scenarios of event versus nonevent weighting.

RESULTS: Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, abnormal E/A ratio, enlarged left atrium, and increased left ventricular mass were independent echocardiographic predictors of HF. Adding the echocardiographic score and NT-proBNP levels to the clinical model improved BIC (echocardiography: -43, NT-proBNP: -64.1, combined: -68.9; all p < 0.001) and C index (baseline: 0.746; echocardiography: +0.031, NT-proBNP: +0.027, combined: +0.043; all p < 0.01), and yielded robust IDI (echocardiography: 43.3\%, NT-proBNP: 42.2\%, combined: 61.7\%; all p < 0.001), and NRI (based on Health ABC HF risk groups; echocardiography: 11.3\%; NT-proBNP: 10.6\%, combined: 16.3\%; all p < 0.01). Participants at intermediate risk by the clinical model (5\% to 20\% 5-yr HF risk; 35.7\% of the cohort) derived the most reclassification benefit. Echocardiography yielded modest reclassification when used sequentially after NT-proBNP.

CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, echocardiography and NT-proBNP offer significant HF risk reclassification over a clinical prediction model, especially for intermediate-risk individuals.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiomegaly, Echocardiography, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Risk, Risk Assessment, Ventricular Function, Left}, issn = {1876-7591}, doi = {10.1016/j.jcmg.2011.11.011}, author = {Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P and Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V and deFilippi, Christopher R and Gottdiener, John S and Butler, Javed} } @article {1547, title = {Physical activity, change in biomarkers of myocardial stress and injury, and subsequent heart failure risk in older adults.}, journal = {J Am Coll Cardiol}, volume = {60}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Dec 18}, pages = {2539-47}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between physical activity and changes in levels of highly sensitive troponin T (cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and the subsequent risk of the development of heart failure (HF) in community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: Higher baseline levels of cTnT and NT-proBNP and increases over time correlate with the risk of HF in older adults. Factors modifying these levels have not been identified.

METHODS: NT-proBNP and cTnT were measured at baseline and 2 to 3 years later in adults 65 years of age and older free of HF participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Self-reported physical activity and walking pace were combined into a composite score. An increase was prespecified for NT-proBNP as a >25\% increment from baseline to >=190 pg/ml and for cTnT as a >50\% increment from baseline in participants with detectable levels (>=3 pg/ml).

RESULTS: A total of 2,933 participants free of HF had NT-proBNP and cTnT measured at both time points. The probability of an increase in biomarker concentrations between baseline and follow-up visits was inversely related to the physical activity score. Compared with participants with the lowest score, those with the highest score had an odds ratio of 0.50 (95\% confidence interval: 0.33 to 0.77) for an increase in NT-proBNP and an odds ratio of 0.30 (95\% confidence interval: 0.16 to 0.55) for an increase in cTnT, after adjusting for comorbidities and baseline levels. A higher activity score associated with a lower long-term incidence of HF. Moreover, at each level of activity, an increase in either biomarker still identified those at higher risk.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that moderate physical activity has protective effects on early heart failure phenotypes, preventing cardiac injury and neurohormonal activation.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Male, Motor Activity, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Risk Assessment, Troponin}, issn = {1558-3597}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2012.08.1006}, author = {deFilippi, Christopher R and de Lemos, James A and Tkaczuk, Andrew T and Christenson, Robert H and Carnethon, Mercedes R and Siscovick, David S and Gottdiener, John S and Seliger, Stephen L} } @article {1379, title = {Plasma free fatty acids and risk of atrial fibrillation (from the Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {Am J Cardiol}, volume = {110}, year = {2012}, month = {2012 Jul 15}, pages = {212-6}, abstract = {

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a highly prevalent cardiac arrhythmia in clinical practice, affecting approximately 2.3 million residents of the United States and 4.5 million residents of the European Union. It is unclear whether plasma free fatty acids (FFAs) influence the risk of AF in older adults. The aim of this study was to prospectively examine the association between plasma FFAs and incident AF in a prospective cohort of 4,175 men and women >=65 years old from the Cardiovascular Health Study. Plasma concentrations of FFAs were measured 2 times during the 1992 to 1993 examination. Incident AF was ascertained based on study electrocardiographic and hospitalization records during follow-up. We used Cox regression to estimate relative risks of AF. Average age at baseline was 74.6 {\textpm} 5.1 years. During a mean follow-up of 10.0 years, 1,041 new cases of AF occurred. Crude incidence rates of AF were 23.7, 23.3, 23.9, and 29.7 cases/1,000 person-years across consecutive quartiles of plasma FFAs. There was a positive association between plasma FFAs and risk of AF. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95\% confidence intervals) for incident AF were 1.00 (referent), 1.02 (0.85 to 1.21), 1.05 (0.88 to 1.26), and 1.29 (1.08 to 1.55) from the lowest to highest quartiles of FFAs, respectively. In a secondary analysis restricted to the first 5 years of follow-up, this association persisted. In conclusion, our data show an increased risk of AF with higher plasma FFAs in community-dwelling older adults.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, C-Reactive Protein, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Fatty Acids, Nonesterified, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hypertension, Incidence, Lipoproteins, HDL, Lipoproteins, LDL, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Obesity, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Sex Factors, Triglycerides, United States}, issn = {1879-1913}, doi = {10.1016/j.amjcard.2012.03.010}, author = {Khawaja, Owais and Bartz, Traci M and Ix, Joachim H and Heckbert, Susan R and Kizer, Jorge R and Zieman, Susan J and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Tracy, Russell P and Siscovick, David S and Djouss{\'e}, Luc} } @article {6279, title = {Long-term trajectory of two unique cardiac biomarkers and subsequent left ventricular structural pathology and risk of incident heart failure in community-dwelling older adults at low baseline risk.}, journal = {JACC Heart Fail}, volume = {1}, year = {2013}, month = {2013 Aug}, pages = {353-360}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether the combined trajectories of cardiac biomarkers identify those older adults with initial low levels who have an increased risk for structural heart disease, incident heart failure (HF), and cardiovascular (CV) death.

BACKGROUND: Initial low levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) identify older adults at lower risk for CV events.

METHODS: We performed an observational study among older adults without prevalent HF in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study). NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were measured at baseline and after 2 to 3 years. In those with low baseline levels, a significant increase was defined as cardiac troponin T (cTnT) >50\% and NT-proBNP >25\% increase to >190 pg/ml. Left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular mass were measured by echocardiography at baseline and 5 years. Cox regression was used to estimate the association of change in biomarkers with HF and CV mortality.

RESULTS: Among 2,008 participants with initially low biomarker concentrations, significant increases occurred in 14.8\% for cTnT only, 13.2\% for NT-proBNP only, and 6.1\% for both. After 10 years, cumulative HF incidence was 50.4\% versus 12.2\% among those with both biomarkers versus neither biomarker increased. The adjusted relative risk comparing those with increases in both biomarkers versus neither biomarker was 3.56 for incident HF (95\% confidence interval: 2.56 to 4.97) and 2.98 for CV mortality (95\% confidence interval: 2.98 to 4.26). Among 1,340 participants with serial echocardiography, the frequency of new abnormal left ventricular ejection fraction was 11.8\% versus 4\% for those with increases in both biomarkers versus neither biomarker (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults without HF with initially low cTnT and NT-proBNP, the long-term trajectory of both biomarkers predicts systolic dysfunction, incident HF, and CV death.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Female, Heart Failure, Heart Ventricles, Humans, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Time Factors, Troponin T, Ultrasonography}, issn = {2213-1787}, doi = {10.1016/j.jchf.2013.04.007}, author = {Glick, Danielle and deFilippi, Christopher R and Christenson, Robert and Gottdiener, John S and Seliger, Stephen L} } @article {6601, title = {B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein in the prediction of atrial fibrillation risk: the CHARGE-AF Consortium of community-based cohort studies.}, journal = {Europace}, volume = {16}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Oct}, pages = {1426-33}, abstract = {

AIMS: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95\% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95\% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5\%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95\% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS.

CONCLUSION: B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Europe, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, United States}, issn = {1532-2092}, doi = {10.1093/europace/euu175}, author = {Sinner, Moritz F and Stepas, Katherine A and Moser, Carlee B and Krijthe, Bouwe P and Aspelund, Thor and Sotoodehnia, Nona and Fontes, Jo{\~a}o D and Janssens, A Cecile J W and Kronmal, Richard A and Magnani, Jared W and Witteman, Jacqueline C and Chamberlain, Alanna M and Lubitz, Steven A and Schnabel, Renate B and Vasan, Ramachandran S and Wang, Thomas J and Agarwal, Sunil K and McManus, David D and Franco, Oscar H and Yin, Xiaoyan and Larson, Martin G and Burke, Gregory L and Launer, Lenore J and Hofman, Albert and Levy, Daniel and Gottdiener, John S and K{\"a}{\"a}b, Stefan and Couper, David and Harris, Tamara B and Astor, Brad C and Ballantyne, Christie M and Hoogeveen, Ron C and Arai, Andrew E and Soliman, Elsayed Z and Ellinor, Patrick T and Stricker, Bruno H C and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Heckbert, Susan R and Pencina, Michael J and Benjamin, Emelia J and Alonso, Alvaro} } @article {6337, title = {Circulating fibrosis biomarkers and risk of atrial fibrillation: The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS).}, journal = {Am Heart J}, volume = {167}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 May}, pages = {723-8.e2}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Cardiac fibrosis is thought to play a central role in the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation (AF). Retrospective studies have suggested that circulating fibrosis biomarkers are associated with AF, but prospective studies are limited.

METHODS: We measured circulating levels of 2 fibrosis biomarkers, procollagen type III, N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP) and transforming growth factor β1 among participants of the CHS, a population-based study of older Americans. We used Cox proportional hazards and competing risks models to examine adjusted risk of incident AF over a median follow-up of 8.8 years.

RESULTS: Levels of PIIINP were assessed in 2,935 participants, of whom 767 developed AF. Compared with the median PIIINP level (4.45 μg/L), adjusted hazard ratios (95\% CIs) were 0.85 (0.72-1.00) at the 10th percentile, 0.93 (0.88-0.99) at the 25th percentile, 1.04 (0.95-1.04) at the 75th percentile, and 1.07 (0.90-1.26) at the 90th. Transforming growth factor β1 levels, assessed in 1,538 participants with 408 cases of incident AF, were not associated with AF risk.

CONCLUSION: In older adults, PIIINP levels were associated with risk of incident AF in a complex manner, with an association that appeared to be positive up to median levels but with little relationship beyond that. Further studies are required to confirm and possibly delineate the mechanism for this relationship.

}, keywords = {Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, Cardiomyopathies, Electrocardiography, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay, Female, Fibrosis, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Male, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Transforming Growth Factor beta1, United States}, issn = {1097-6744}, doi = {10.1016/j.ahj.2014.01.010}, author = {Rosenberg, Michael A and Maziarz, Marlena and Tan, Alex Y and Glazer, Nicole L and Zieman, Susan J and Kizer, Jorge R and Ix, Joachim H and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Siscovick, David S and Heckbert, Susan R and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6541, title = {Fibrosis-related biomarkers and incident cardiovascular disease in older adults: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol}, volume = {7}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Aug}, pages = {583-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Fibrotic changes in the heart and arteries have been implicated in a diverse range of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), but whether circulating biomarkers that reflect fibrosis are associated with CVD is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We determined the associations of 2 biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor- β (TGF-β), and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with incident heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We measured circulating TGF-β (n=1371) and PIIINP (n=2568) from plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained events through 2010. Given TGF-β{\textquoteright}s pleiotropic effects on inflammation and fibrogenesis, we investigated potential effect modification by C-reactive protein in secondary analyses. After adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors, PIIINP was associated with total CVD (hazard ratio [HR] per SD=1.07; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.14) and heart failure (HR per SD=1.08; CI, 1.01-1.16) but not myocardial infarction or stroke. TGF-β was not associated with any CVD outcomes in the full cohort but was associated with total CVD (HR per SD=1.16; CI, 1.02-1.31), heart failure (HR per SD=1.16; CI, 1.01-1.34), and stroke (HR per SD=1.20; CI, 1.01-1.42) among individuals with C-reactive protein above the median, 2.3 mg/L (P interaction <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide large-scale, prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis, measured in community-living individuals late in life, are associated with CVD. Further research on whether TGF-β has a stronger fibrogenic effect in the setting of inflammation is warranted.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Biomarkers, C-Reactive Protein, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Fibrosis, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Male, Myocardial Infarction, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke, Time Factors, Transforming Growth Factor beta, United States}, issn = {1941-3084}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCEP.114.001610}, author = {Agarwal, Isha and Glazer, Nicole L and Barasch, Eddy and Biggs, Mary L and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Gottdiener, John S and Ix, Joachim H and Kizer, Jorge R and Rimm, Eric B and Sicovick, David S and Tracy, Russell P and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6336, title = {Fibrosis-related biomarkers and risk of total and cause-specific mortality: the cardiovascular health study.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, volume = {179}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Jun 01}, pages = {1331-9}, abstract = {

Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996-2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95\% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, Cause of Death, Female, Fibrosis, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Likelihood Functions, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Transforming Growth Factor beta}, issn = {1476-6256}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwu067}, author = {Agarwal, Isha and Glazer, Nicole L and Barasch, Eddy and Biggs, Mary L and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Gottdiener, John S and Ix, Joachim H and Kizer, Jorge R and Rimm, Eric B and Siscovick, David S and Tracy, Russell P and Zieman, Susan J and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6588, title = {Risk factors for cardiovascular disease across the spectrum of older age: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Atherosclerosis}, volume = {237}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Nov}, pages = {336-42}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: The associations of some risk factors with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are attenuated in older age; whereas others appear robust. The present study aimed to compare CVD risk factors across older age.

METHODS: Participants (n~=~4883) in the Cardiovascular Health Study free of prevalent CVD, were stratified into three age groups: 65-74, 75-84, 85+ years. Traditional risk factors included systolic blood pressure (BP), LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, obesity, and diabetes. Novel risk factors included kidney function, C-reactive protein (CRP), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP).

RESULTS: There were 1498 composite CVD events (stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death) over 5 years. The associations of high systolic BP and diabetes appeared strongest, though both were attenuated with age (p-values for interaction~=~0.01 and 0.002, respectively). The demographic-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for elevated systolic BP were 1.79 (95\% confidence interval: 1.49, 2.15), 1.59 (1.37, 1.85) and 1.10 (0.86, 1.41) in participants aged 65-74, 75-84, 85+, and for diabetes, 2.36 (1.89, 2.95), 1.55 (1.27, 1.89), 1.51 (1.10, 2.09). The novel risk factors had consistent associations with the outcome across the age spectrum; low kidney function: 1.69 (1.31, 2.19), 1.61 (1.36, 1.90), and 1.57 (1.16, 2.14) for 65-74, 75-84, and 85+ years, respectively; elevated CRP: 1.54 (1.28, 1.87), 1.33 (1.13, 1.55), and 1.51 (1.15, 1.97); elevated NT pro-BNP: 2.67 (1.96, 3.64), 2.71 (2.25, 3.27), and 2.18 (1.43, 3.45).

CONCLUSIONS: The associations of most traditional risk factors with CVD were minimal in the oldest old, whereas diabetes, eGFR, CRP, and NT pro-BNP were associated with CVD across older age.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Pressure, C-Reactive Protein, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cholesterol, HDL, Cholesterol, LDL, Diabetes Complications, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Inflammation, Kidney, Kidney Diseases, Lipids, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Obesity, Peptide Fragments, Risk Factors}, issn = {1879-1484}, doi = {10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2014.09.012}, author = {Odden, Michelle C and Shlipak, Michael G and Whitson, Heather E and Katz, Ronit and Kearney, Patricia M and deFilippi, Chris and Shastri, Shani and Sarnak, Mark J and Siscovick, David S and Cushman, Mary and Psaty, Bruce M and Newman, Anne B} } @article {6235, title = {Troponin T, NT-proBNP, and venous thromboembolism: the Longitudinal Investigation of Thromboembolism Etiology (LITE).}, journal = {Vasc Med}, volume = {19}, year = {2014}, month = {2014 Feb}, pages = {33-41}, abstract = {

Increased levels of plasma troponins and natriuretic peptides are markers of cardiac dysfunction associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Little information exists on cardiac dysfunction and occurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE). In two prospective epidemiological cohorts, we tested the hypothesis that high-sensitivity troponin T (TnT) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are associated positively with VTE occurrence. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) measured plasma TnT and NT-proBNP in 13,719 men or women with no history of venous thrombosis, coronary heart disease, or heart failure and followed them for approximately 10 years for VTE occurrence (n = 348 VTEs). In both ARIC and CHS, TnT was associated positively with incidence of total VTE and provoked VTE, but not with unprovoked VTE: age, race, and sex-adjusted hazard ratios for total VTE in the pooled analysis were 1.00, 0.85, 1.36, 1.51, and 1.98 (p-trend <0.0001) across five categories of TnT. In contrast, the association of NT-proBNP with VTE was positive in ARIC (hazard ratios approximately 2.5-fold for the highest versus lowest NT-proBNP quintiles), but non-existent in CHS.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atherosclerosis, Biomarkers, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Incidence, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Troponin T, Venous Thromboembolism}, issn = {1477-0377}, doi = {10.1177/1358863X14520869}, author = {Folsom, Aaron R and Lutsey, Pamela L and Nambi, Vijay and deFilippi, Christopher R and Heckbert, Susan R and Cushman, Mary and Ballantyne, Christie M} } @article {6805, title = {Associations between metabolic dysregulation and circulating biomarkers of fibrosis: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Metabolism}, volume = {64}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Oct}, pages = {1316-23}, abstract = {

AIM: Fibrosis is one postulated pathway by which diabetes produces cardiac and other systemic complications. Our aim was to determine which metabolic parameters are associated with circulating fibrosis-related biomarkers transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP).

METHODS: We used linear regression to determine the cross-sectional associations of diverse metabolic parameters, including fasting glucose, fasting insulin, body mass index, fatty acid binding protein 4, and non-esterified fatty acids, with circulating levels of TGF-β (n = 1559) and PIIINP (n = 3024) among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

RESULTS: Among the main metabolic parameters we examined, only fasting glucose was associated with TGF-β (P = 0.03). In contrast, multiple metabolic parameters were associated with PIIINP, including fasting insulin, body mass index, and non-esterified fatty acids (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.001, respectively). These associations remained statistically significant after mutual adjustment, except the association between BMI and PIIINP.

CONCLUSIONS: Isolated hyperglycemia is associated with higher serum concentrations of TGF-β, while a broader phenotype of insulin resistance is associated with higher serum PIIINP. Whether simultaneous pharmacologic targeting of these two metabolic phenotypes can synergistically reduce the risk of cardiac and other manifestations of fibrosis remains to be determined.

}, keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Biomarkers, Blood Glucose, Cardiovascular System, Cross-Sectional Studies, Diabetes Complications, Diabetes Mellitus, Fatty Acids, Nonesterified, Female, Fibrosis, Health, Humans, Insulin, Insulin Resistance, Male, Metabolic Diseases, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Transforming Growth Factor beta}, issn = {1532-8600}, doi = {10.1016/j.metabol.2015.07.013}, author = {Agarwal, Isha and Glazer, Nicole L and Barasch, Eddy and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Gottdiener, John S and Ix, Joachim H and Kizer, Jorge R and Rimm, Eric B and Siscovick, David S and King, George L and Mukamal, Ken J} } @article {6665, title = {Fibrosis-related biomarkers and large and small vessel disease: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {Atherosclerosis}, volume = {239}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Apr}, pages = {539-46}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVE: Fibrosis has been implicated in a number of pathological, organ-based conditions of the liver, kidney, heart, and lungs. The objective of this study was to determine whether biomarkers of fibrosis are associated with vascular disease in the large and/or small vessels.

METHODS: We evaluated the associations of two circulating biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD) and subclinical macrovascular (carotid intima-media thickness, flow-mediated vasodilation, ankle-brachial index, retinal vein diameter), and microvascular (retinal artery diameter and retinopathy) disease among older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We measured TGF-β and PIIINP from samples collected in 1996 and ascertained clinical PAD through 2011. Measurements of large and small vessels were collected between 1996 and 1998.

RESULTS: After adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors, TGF-β was associated with incident PAD (hazard ratio [HR]~=~1.36 per doubling of TGF-β, 95\% confidence interval [CI]~=~1.04, 1.78) and retinal venular diameter (1.63~μm per doubling of TGF-β, CI~=~0.23, 3.02). PIIINP was not associated with incident PAD, but was associated with carotid intima-media thickness (0.102~mm per doubling of PIIINP, CI~=~0.029, 0.174) and impaired brachial artery reactivity (-0.20\% change per doubling of PIIINP, CI~=~-0.39,~-0.02). Neither TGF-β nor PIIINP were associated with retinal arteriolar diameter or retinopathy.

CONCLUSIONS: Serum concentrations of fibrosis-related biomarkers were associated with several measures of large vessel disease, including incident PAD, but not with small vessel disease. Fibrosis may contribute to large vessel atherosclerosis in older adults.

}, keywords = {Aged, Ankle Brachial Index, Biomarkers, Brachial Artery, Carotid Artery Diseases, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Fibrosis, Humans, Incidence, Male, Peptide Fragments, Peripheral Arterial Disease, Predictive Value of Tests, Procollagen, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Retinal Diseases, Risk Factors, Transforming Growth Factor beta, United States, Vasodilation}, issn = {1879-1484}, doi = {10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2015.02.020}, author = {Agarwal, Isha and Arnold, Alice and Glazer, Nicole L and Barasch, Eddy and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Fitzpatrick, Annette L and Gottdiener, John S and Ix, Joachim H and Jensen, Richard A and Kizer, Jorge R and Rimm, Eric B and Siscovick, David S and Tracy, Russell P and Wong, Tien Y and Mukamal, Kenneth J} } @article {6801, title = {Higher circulating adiponectin levels are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation in older adults.}, journal = {Heart}, volume = {101}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Sep}, pages = {1368-74}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Adiponectin has cardioprotective properties, suggesting that lower levels seen in obesity and diabetes could heighten risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Among older adults, however, higher adiponectin has been linked to greater incidence of adverse outcomes associated with AF, although recent reports have shown this association to be U-shaped. We postulated that higher adiponectin would be linked to increased risk for AF in older adults in a U-shaped manner.

METHODS: We examined the associations of total and high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin with incident AF among individuals free of prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) participating in a population-based cohort study of older adults (n=3190; age=74{\textpm}5 years).

RESULTS: During median follow-up of 11.4 years, there were 886 incident AF events. Adjusted cubic splines showed a positive and linear association between adiponectin and incident AF. After adjusting for potential confounders, including amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide 1-76, the HR (95\% CI) for AF per SD increase in total adiponectin was 1.14 (1.05 to 1.24), while that for HMW adiponectin was 1.17 (1.08 to 1.27). Additional adjustment for putative mediators, including subclinical CVD, diabetes, lipids and inflammation, did not significantly affect these estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: The present findings demonstrate that higher, not lower, levels of adiponectin are independently associated with increased risk of AF in older adults despite its documented cardiometabolic benefits. Additional work is necessary to determine if adiponectin is a marker of failed counter-regulatory pathways or whether this hormone is directly harmful in the setting of or as a result of advanced age.

}, keywords = {Adiponectin, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, Female, Humans, Incidence, Linear Models, Male, Multivariate Analysis, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Time Factors, United States, Up-Regulation}, issn = {1468-201X}, doi = {10.1136/heartjnl-2014-307015}, author = {Macheret, Fima and Bartz, Traci M and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Ix, Joachim H and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Zieman, Susan J and Siscovick, David S and Tracy, Russell P and Heckbert, Susan R and Psaty, Bruce M and Kizer, Jorge R} } @article {6661, title = {NT-proBNP and troponin T and risk of rapid kidney function decline and incident CKD in elderly adults.}, journal = {Clin J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {10}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Feb 6}, pages = {205-14}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Elevations in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T are associated with poor cardiovascular outcomes. Whether elevations in these cardiac biomarkers are associated with decline in kidney function was evaluated.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, \& MEASUREMENTS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin T were measured at baseline in 3752 participants free of heart failure in the Cardiovascular Health Study. eGFR was determined from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation using serum cystatin C. Rapid decline in kidney function was defined as decline in serum cystatin C eGFR>=30\%, and incident CKD was defined as the onset of serum cystatin C eGFR<60 among those without CKD at baseline (n=2786). Cox regression models were used to examine the associations of each biomarker with kidney function decline adjusting for demographics, baseline serum cystatin C eGFR, diabetes, and other CKD risk factors.

RESULTS: In total, 503 participants had rapid decline in serum cystatin C eGFR over a mean follow-up time of 6.41 (1.81) years, and 685 participants developed incident CKD over a mean follow-up time of 6.41 (1.74) years. Participants in the highest quartile of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (>237 pg/ml) had an 67\% higher risk of rapid decline and 38\% higher adjusted risk of incident CKD compared with participants in the lowest quartile (adjusted hazard ratio for serum cystatin C eGFR rapid decline, 1.67; 95\% confidence interval, 1.25 to 2.23; hazard ratio for incident CKD, 1.38; 95\% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.76). Participants in the highest category of troponin T (>10.58 pg/ml) had 80\% greater risk of rapid decline compared with participants in the lowest category (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95\% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.40). The association of troponin T with incident CKD was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95\% confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.50).

CONCLUSIONS: Elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin T are associated with rapid decline of kidney function and incident CKD. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the mechanisms that may explain this association.

}, keywords = {Age Factors, Aged, Aging, Biomarkers, Cystatin C, Disease Progression, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Incidence, Kidney, Linear Models, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Prospective Studies, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Troponin T, United States, Up-Regulation}, issn = {1555-905X}, doi = {10.2215/CJN.04910514}, author = {Bansal, Nisha and Katz, Ronit and Dalrymple, Lorien and de Boer, Ian and DeFilippi, Christopher and Kestenbaum, Bryan and Park, Meyeon and Sarnak, Mark and Seliger, Stephen and Shlipak, Michael} } @article {6735, title = {Older Adults, "Malignant" Left Ventricular Hypertrophy, and Associated Cardiac-Specific Biomarker Phenotypes to Identify the Differential Risk of New-Onset Reduced Versus Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure: CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).}, journal = {JACC Heart Fail}, volume = {3}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Jun}, pages = {445-55}, abstract = {

OBJECTIVES: This study hypothesized that biomarkers of subclinical myocardial injury (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T [hs-cTnT]) and hemodynamic stress (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) would differentiate heart~failure (HF) risk among older adults with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH).

BACKGROUND: The natural history of LVH, an important risk factor for HF, is heterogeneous.

METHODS: NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were measured at baseline and after 2 to 3 years in older adults without prior HF or myocardial infarction in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study). LVH and left ventricular ejection fraction were determined by echocardiography. HF events were adjudicated over a median of 13.1 years and classified as preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF]). Adjusted risk of HF by LVH and biomarker tertiles, and by LVH and longitudinal increase in each biomarker was estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS: Prevalence of LVH was 12.5\% among 2,347 participants with complete measures. Adjusted risk of HF (N~=~643 events) was approximately 3.8-fold higher among participants with LVH and in the highest biomarker tertile, compared with those with low biomarker levels without LVH (NT-proBNP, hazard ratio [HR]: 3.78; 95\% confidence interval [CI]: 2.78 to 5.15 and hs-cTnT, HR: 3.86; 95\% CI: 2.84 to 5.26). The adjusted risk of HFrEF was 7.8 times higher among those with the highest tertile of hs-cTnT and LVH (HR: 7.83; 95\% CI: 4.43 to 13.83). Those with LVH and longitudinal increases in hs-cTnT or NT-proBNP were approximately 3-fold more likely to develop HF, primarily HFrEF, compared with those without LVH and with stable biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS: The combination of LVH with greater hs-cTnT or NT-proBNP levels, and their longitudinal increase, identifies older adults at highest risk for symptomatic HF, especially HFrEF. These biomarkers may characterize sub-phenotypes in the transition from LVH to HF and suggest modifiable targets for prevention.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Echocardiography, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Phenotype, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Troponin T}, issn = {2213-1787}, doi = {10.1016/j.jchf.2014.12.018}, author = {Seliger, Stephen L and de Lemos, James and Neeland, Ian J and Christenson, Robert and Gottdiener, John and Drazner, Mark H and Berry, Jarett and Sorkin, John and DeFilippi, Christopher} } @article {6660, title = {Urine Collagen Fragments and CKD Progression-The Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Am Soc Nephrol}, volume = {26}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Oct}, pages = {2494-503}, abstract = {

Tubulointerstitial fibrosis is common with ageing and strongly prognostic for ESRD but is poorly captured by eGFR or urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR). Higher urine levels of procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP) mark the severity of tubulointerstitial fibrosis in biopsy studies, but the association of urine PIIINP with CKD progression is unknown. Among community-living persons aged >=65 years, we measured PIIINP in spot urine specimens from the 1996 to 1997 Cardiovascular Health Study visit among individuals with CKD progression (30\% decline in eGFR over 9 years, n=192) or incident ESRD (n=54) during follow-up, and in 958 randomly selected participants. We evaluated associations of urine PIIINP with CKD progression and incident ESRD. Associations of urine PIIINP with cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and death were evaluated as secondary end points. At baseline, mean age ({\textpm}SD) was 78{\textpm}5 years, mean eGFR was 63{\textpm}18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and median urine PIIINP was 2.6 (interquartile range, 1.4-4.2) μg/L. In a case-control study (192 participants, 231 controls), each doubling of urine PIIINP associated with 22\% higher odds of CKD progression (adjusted odds ratio, 1.22; 95\% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.49). Higher urine PIIINP level was also associated with incident ESRD, but results were not significant in fully adjusted models. In a prospective study among the 958 randomly selected participants, higher urine PIIINP was significantly associated with death, but not with incident cardiovascular disease or heart failure. These data suggest higher urine PIIINP levels associate with CKD progression independently of eGFR and ACR in older individuals.

}, keywords = {Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Case-Control Studies, Disease Progression, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Prospective Studies, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic}, issn = {1533-3450}, doi = {10.1681/ASN.2014070696}, author = {Ix, Joachim H and Biggs, Mary L and Mukamal, Kenneth and Djouss{\'e}, Luc and Siscovick, David and Tracy, Russell and Katz, Ronit and Delaney, Joseph A and Chaves, Paulo and Rifkin, Dena E and Hughes-Austin, Jan M and Garimella, Pranav S and Sarnak, Mark J and Shlipak, Michael G and Kizer, Jorge R} } @article {6707, title = {Years of able life in older persons--the role of cardiovascular imaging and biomarkers: the Cardiovascular Health Study.}, journal = {J Am Heart Assoc}, volume = {4}, year = {2015}, month = {2015 Apr}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: As the U.S. population grows older, there is greater need to examine physical independence. Previous studies have assessed risk factors in relation to either disability or mortality, but an outcome that combines both is still needed.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The Cardiovascular Health Study is a population-based, prospective study where participants underwent baseline echocardiogram, measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), and various biomarkers, then followed for up to 18 years. Years of able life (YAL) constituted the number of years the participant was able to perform all activities of daily living. Linear regression was used to model the relationship between selected measures and outcomes, adjusted for confounding variables. Among 4902 participants, mean age was 72.6 {\textpm} 5.4 years, median YAL for males was 8.8 (interquartile range [IQR], 4.3 to 13.8) and 10.3 (IQR, 5.8 to 15.8) for females. Reductions in YAL in the fully adjusted model for females and males, respectively, were: -1.34 (95\% confidence interval [CI], -2.18, -0.49) and -1.41 (95\% CI, -2.03, -0.8) for abnormal left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, -0.5 (95\% CI, -0.78, -0.22) and -0.62 (95\% CI, -0.87, -0.36) per SD increase in LV mass, -0.5 (95\% CI, -0.7, -0.29) and -0.79 (95\% CI, -0.99, -0.58) for IMT, -0.5 (95\% CI, -0.64, -0.37) and -0.79 (95\% CI, -0.94, -0.65) for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, -1.08 (95\% CI, -1.34, -0.83) and -0.73 (95\% CI, -0.97, -0.5) for high-sensitivity troponin-T, and -0.26 (95\% CI, -0.42, -0.09) and -0.23 (95\% CI, -0.41, -0.05) for procollagen-III N-terminal propeptide. Most tested variables remained significant even after adjusting for incident cardiovascular (CV) disease.

CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based cohort, variables obtained by CV imaging and biomarkers of inflammation, coagulation, atherosclerosis, myocardial injury and stress, and cardiac collagen turnover were associated with YAL, an important outcome that integrates physical ability and longevity in older persons.

}, keywords = {Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Echocardiography, Female, Humans, Independent Living, Male, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Procollagen, Prospective Studies, Stroke Volume, Troponin I}, issn = {2047-9980}, doi = {10.1161/JAHA.114.001745}, author = {Alshawabkeh, Laith I and Yee, Laura M and Gardin, Julius M and Gottdiener, John S and Odden, Michelle C and Bartz, Traci M and Arnold, Alice M and Mukamal, Kenneth J and Wallace, Robert B} } @article {8567, title = {Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis.}, journal = {Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol}, volume = {4}, year = {2016}, month = {2016 10}, pages = {840-9}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment.

METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5\%, 5\% to <7{\textperiodcentered}5\%, and >=7{\textperiodcentered}5\%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1{\textperiodcentered}76 (95\% CI 1{\textperiodcentered}56-1{\textperiodcentered}98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2{\textperiodcentered}00 (1{\textperiodcentered}77-2{\textperiodcentered}26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0{\textperiodcentered}012 (0{\textperiodcentered}010-0{\textperiodcentered}014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0{\textperiodcentered}027 (0{\textperiodcentered}019-0{\textperiodcentered}036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0{\textperiodcentered}019 (0{\textperiodcentered}016-0{\textperiodcentered}022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0{\textperiodcentered}028 (0{\textperiodcentered}019-0{\textperiodcentered}038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention.

FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

}, keywords = {Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment}, issn = {2213-8595}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(16)30196-6}, author = {Willeit, Peter and Kaptoge, Stephen and Welsh, Paul and Butterworth, Adam and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Spackman, Sarah and Pennells, Lisa and Gao, Pei and Burgess, Stephen and Freitag, Daniel and Sweeting, Michael and Wood, Angela and Cook, Nancy and Judd, Suzanne and Trompet, Stella and Nambi, Vijay and Olsen, Michael and Everett, Brendan and Kee, Frank and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Salomaa, Veikko and Levy, Daniel and Kauhanen, Jussi and Laukkanen, Jari and Kavousi, Maryam and Ninomiya, Toshiharu and Casas, Juan-Pablo and Daniels, Lori and Lind, Lars and Kistorp, Caroline and Rosenberg, Jens and Mueller, Thomas and Rubattu, Speranza and Panagiotakos, Demosthenes and Franco, Oscar and de Lemos, James and Luchner, Andreas and Kizer, Jorge and Kiechl, Stefan and Salonen, Jukka and Goya Wannamethee, S and de Boer, Rudolf and Nordestgaard, B{\o}rge and Andersson, Jonas and J{\o}rgensen, Torben and Melander, Olle and Ballantyne, Christie and DeFilippi, Christopher and Ridker, Paul and Cushman, Mary and Rosamond, Wayne and Thompson, Simon and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Sattar, Naveed and Danesh, John and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele} } @article {9539, title = {A proteomic analysis of atrial fibrillation in a prospective longitudinal cohort (AGES-Reykjavik study).}, journal = {Europace}, volume = {25}, year = {2023}, month = {2023 Nov 02}, abstract = {

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of comorbidities and mortality. Our aim was to examine causal and predictive relationships between 4137 serum proteins and incident AF in the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 4765 participants, of whom 1172 developed AF. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted for 4137 baseline protein measurements adjusting for known risk factors. Protein associations were tested for replication in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Causal relationships were examined in a bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-statistic was examined as protein levels and an AF-polygenic risk score (PRS) were added to clinical risk models. The proteomic signature of incident AF consisted of 76 proteins, of which 63 (83\%) were novel and 29 (38\%) were replicated in CHS. The signature included both N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-dependent (e.g. CHST15, ATP1B1, and SVEP1) and independent components (e.g. ASPN, AKR1B, and LAMA1/LAMB1/LAMC1). Nine causal candidates were identified (TAGLN, WARS, CHST15, CHMP3, COL15A1, DUSP13, MANBA, QSOX2, and SRL). The reverse causal analysis suggested that most AF-associated proteins were affected by the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide improved the prediction of incident AF events close to baseline with further improvements gained by the AF-PRS at all time points.

CONCLUSION: The AF proteomic signature includes biologically relevant proteins, some of which may be causal. It mainly reflects an NT-proBNP-dependent consequence of the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide is a promising marker for incident AF in the short term, but risk assessment incorporating a PRS may improve long-term risk assessment.

}, keywords = {Atrial Fibrillation, Biomarkers, Endosomal Sorting Complexes Required for Transport, Humans, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Oxidoreductases Acting on Sulfur Group Donors, Peptide Fragments, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Proteomics, Risk Factors}, issn = {1532-2092}, doi = {10.1093/europace/euad320}, author = {Jonmundsson, Thorarinn and Steindorsdottir, Anna E and Austin, Thomas R and Frick, Elisabet A and Axelsson, Gisli T and Launer, Lenore and Psaty, Bruce M and Loureiro, Joseph and Orth, Anthony P and Aspelund, Thor and Emilsson, Valur and Floyd, James S and Jennings, Lori and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Gudmundsdottir, Valborg} }