04434nas a2200361 4500008004100000022001400041245008300055210006900138260001600207300001300223490000600236520343700242653000903679653002203688653002203710653001403732653001903746653001103765653003103776653001103807653000903818653001703827100002303844700002203867700002703889700001403916700002503930700002003955700002203975700001703997700002204014856003604036 2023 eng d a2574-380500aCogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, and LIBRA Risk Scores for Estimating Dementia Risk.0 aCogDrisk ANUADRI CAIDE and LIBRA Risk Scores for Estimating Deme c2023 Aug 01 ae23314600 v63 a

IMPORTANCE: While the Australian National University-Alzheimer Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE), and Lifestyle for Brain Health (LIBRA) dementia risk tools have been widely used, a large body of new evidence has emerged since their publication. Recently, Cognitive Health and Dementia Risk Index (CogDrisk) and CogDrisk for Alzheimer disease (CogDrisk-AD) risk tools have been developed for the assessment of dementia and AD risk, respectively, using contemporary evidence; comparison of the relative performance of these risk tools is limited.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, LIBRA, and modified LIBRA (LIBRA with age and sex estimates from ANU-ADRI) in estimating dementia and AD risks (with CogDrisk-AD and ANU-ADRI).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cohort study obtained data from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP), the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study (CHS-CS), and the Health and Retirement Study-Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (HRS-ADAMS). Participants who were free of dementia at baseline were included. The factors were component variables in the risk tools that included self-reported baseline demographics, medical risk factors, and lifestyle habits. The study was conducted between November 2021 and March 2023, and statistical analysis was performed from January to June 2023.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk scores were calculated based on available factors in each of these cohorts. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to measure the performance of each risk score. Multiple imputation was used to assess whether missing data may have affected estimates for dementia risk.

RESULTS: Among the 6107 participants in 3 validation cohorts included for this study, 2184 participants without dementia at baseline were available from MAP (mean [SD] age, 80.0 [7.6] years; 1606 [73.5%] female), 548 participants without dementia at baseline were available from HRS-ADAMS (mean [SD] age, 79.5 [6.3] years; 288 [52.5%] female), and 3375 participants without dementia at baseline were available from CHS-CS (mean [SD] age, 74.8 [4.9] years; 1994 [59.1%] female). In all 3 cohorts, a similar AUC for dementia was obtained using CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, and modified LIBRA (MAP cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; HRS-ADAMS cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71-0.79]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.70-0.78]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71-0.79]; CHS-CS cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.67-0.72]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.66-0.72]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.68-0.73]). The CAIDE and LIBRA also provided similar but lower AUCs than the 3 aforementioned tools (eg, MAP cohort: CAIDE AUC, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.46-0.54]; LIBRA AUC, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.48-0.57]). The performance of CogDrisk-AD and ANU-ADRI in estimating AD risks was also similar.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD performed similarly to ANU-ADRI in estimating dementia and AD risks. These results suggest that CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD, with a greater range of modifiable risk factors compared with other risk tools in this study, may be more informative for risk reduction.

10aAged10aAged, 80 and over10aAlzheimer Disease10aAustralia10aCohort Studies10aFemale10aHeart Disease Risk Factors10aHumans10aMale10aRisk Factors1 aHuque, Md, Hamidul1 aKootar, Scherazad1 aEramudugolla, Ranmalee1 aHan, Duke1 aCarlson, Michelle, C1 aLopez, Oscar, L1 aBennett, David, A1 aPeters, Ruth1 aAnstey, Kaarin, J uhttps://chs-nhlbi.org/node/9480