TY - JOUR T1 - Lifetime risk for heart failure among white and black Americans: cardiovascular lifetime risk pooling project. JF - J Am Coll Cardiol Y1 - 2013 A1 - Huffman, Mark D A1 - Berry, Jarett D A1 - Ning, Hongyan A1 - Dyer, Alan R A1 - Garside, Daniel B A1 - Cai, Xuan A1 - Daviglus, Martha L A1 - Lloyd-Jones, Donald M KW - Adolescent KW - Adult KW - African Americans KW - Age Factors KW - Aged KW - Anthropometry KW - Body Mass Index KW - Cardiovascular Diseases KW - Cohort Studies KW - European Continental Ancestry Group KW - Female KW - Health Surveys KW - Heart Failure KW - Humans KW - Kaplan-Meier Estimate KW - Male KW - Middle Aged KW - Predictive Value of Tests KW - Prognosis KW - Risk Assessment KW - Severity of Illness Index KW - Sex Factors KW - Survival Analysis KW - Time Factors KW - United States KW - Young Adult AB -

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to estimate lifetime risk for heart failure (HF) by sex and race.

BACKGROUND: Prior estimates of lifetime risk for developing HF range from 20% to 33% in predominantly white cohorts. Short-term risks for HF appear higher for blacks than whites, but only limited comparisons of lifetime risk for HF have been made.

METHODS: Using public-release and internal datasets from National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored cohorts, we estimated lifetime risks for developing HF to age 95 years, with death free of HF as the competing event, among participants in the CHA (Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry), ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), and CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) cohorts.

RESULTS: There were 39,578 participants (33,652 [85%] white; 5,926 [15%] black) followed for 716,976 person-years; 5,983 participants developed HF. At age 45 years, lifetime risks for HF through age 95 years in CHA and CHS were 30% to 42% in white men, 20% to 29% in black men, 32% to 39% in white women, and 24% to 46% in black women. Results for ARIC demonstrated similar lifetime risks for HF in blacks and whites through age 75 years (limit of follow-up). Lifetime risk for HF was higher with higher blood pressure and body mass index at all ages in both blacks and whites, and did not diminish substantially with advancing index age.

CONCLUSIONS: These are among the first data to compare lifetime risks for HF between blacks and whites. Lifetime risks for HF are high and appear similar for black and white women, yet are somewhat lower for black compared with white men due to competing risks.

VL - 61 IS - 14 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23500287?dopt=Abstract ER -