TY - JOUR T1 - Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk - Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration. JF - PLoS One Y1 - 2018 A1 - Lorenz, Matthias W A1 - Gao, Lu A1 - Ziegelbauer, Kathrin A1 - Norata, Giuseppe Danilo A1 - Empana, Jean Philippe A1 - Schmidtmann, Irene A1 - Lin, Hung-Ju A1 - McLachlan, Stela A1 - Bokemark, Lena A1 - Ronkainen, Kimmo A1 - Amato, Mauro A1 - Schminke, Ulf A1 - Srinivasan, Sathanur R A1 - Lind, Lars A1 - Okazaki, Shuhei A1 - Stehouwer, Coen D A A1 - Willeit, Peter A1 - Polak, Joseph F A1 - Steinmetz, Helmuth A1 - Sander, Dirk A1 - Poppert, Holger A1 - Desvarieux, Moïse A1 - Ikram, M Arfan A1 - Johnsen, Stein Harald A1 - Staub, Daniel A1 - Sirtori, Cesare R A1 - Iglseder, Bernhard A1 - Beloqui, Oscar A1 - Engström, Gunnar A1 - Friera, Alfonso A1 - Rozza, Francesco A1 - Xie, Wuxiang A1 - Parraga, Grace A1 - Grigore, Liliana A1 - Plichart, Matthieu A1 - Blankenberg, Stefan A1 - Su, Ta-Chen A1 - Schmidt, Caroline A1 - Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka A1 - Veglia, Fabrizio A1 - Völzke, Henry A1 - Nijpels, Giel A1 - Willeit, Johann A1 - Sacco, Ralph L A1 - Franco, Oscar H A1 - Uthoff, Heiko A1 - Hedblad, Bo A1 - Suarez, Carmen A1 - Izzo, Raffaele A1 - Zhao, Dong A1 - Wannarong, Thapat A1 - Catapano, Alberico A1 - Ducimetiere, Pierre A1 - Espinola-Klein, Christine A1 - Chien, Kuo-Liong A1 - Price, Jackie F A1 - Bergström, Göran A1 - Kauhanen, Jussi A1 - Tremoli, Elena A1 - Dörr, Marcus A1 - Berenson, Gerald A1 - Kitagawa, Kazuo A1 - Dekker, Jacqueline M A1 - Kiechl, Stefan A1 - Sitzer, Matthias A1 - Bickel, Horst A1 - Rundek, Tatjana A1 - Hofman, Albert A1 - Mathiesen, Ellisiv B A1 - Castelnuovo, Samuela A1 - Landecho, Manuel F A1 - Rosvall, Maria A1 - Gabriel, Rafael A1 - de Luca, Nicola A1 - Liu, Jing A1 - Baldassarre, Damiano A1 - Kavousi, Maryam A1 - de Groot, Eric A1 - Bots, Michiel L A1 - Yanez, David N A1 - Thompson, Simon G KW - Aged KW - Cardiovascular Diseases KW - Carotid Intima-Media Thickness KW - Female KW - Humans KW - Intersectoral Collaboration KW - Male KW - Middle Aged KW - Prognosis KW - Risk Factors AB -

AIMS: Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS: From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93-1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89-1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07-1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05-1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05-1.20) in group C.

CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

VL - 13 IS - 4 ER -