Fasting and Postload Nonesterified Fatty Acids and Glucose Dysregulation in Older Adults. - Shitole, Sanyog G; Biggs, Mary L; Ix, Joachim H; Fretts, Amanda M; Tracy, Russell P; Siscovick, David S; Djoussé, Luc; Mukamal, Kenneth J; Kizer, Jorge R (Am J Epidemiol, 2022)
To evaluate the association of nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) with dysglycemia in older adults, NEFA levels were measured among participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (United States; enrolled 1989-1993). Associations with insulin sensitivity and pancreatic β-cell function, and with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), were examined. The sample comprised 2,144 participants (aged 77.9 (standard deviation, 4.5) years). Participant data from the Cardiovascular Health Study visit in 1996-1997 was used with prospective follow-up through 2010. Fasting and postload NEFA showed significant associations with lower insulin sensitivity and pancreatic β-cell function, individually and on concurrent adjustment. Over median follow-up of 9.7 years, 236 cases of DM occurred. Postload NEFA were associated with risk of DM (per standard deviation, hazard ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 1.08, 1.29), but fasting NEFA were not (hazard ratio = 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 0.97, 1.29). The association for postload NEFA persisted after adjustment for putative intermediates, and after adjustment for fasting NEFA. Sex and body mass index modified these associations, which were stronger for fasting NEFA with DM in men but were accentuated for postload NEFA in women and among leaner individuals. Fasting and postload NEFA were related to lower insulin sensitivity and pancreatic β-cell function, but only postload NEFA were associated with increased DM. Additional study into NEFA metabolism could uncover novel potential targets for diabetes prevention in elders.
Keywords: Aged; Blood Glucose; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; Fasting; Fatty Acids, Nonesterified; Female; Glucose; Humans; Insulin; Insulin Resistance; Male; Prospective Studies

Glucose dysregulation and subclinical cardiac dysfunction in older adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study. - Garg, Parveen K; Biggs, Mary L; Kizer, Jorge R; Shah, Sanjiv J; Psaty, Bruce; Carnethon, Mercedes; Gottdiener, John S; Siscovick, David; Mukamal, Kenneth J (Cardiovasc Diabetol, 2022)
OBJECTIVE: We evaluated whether measures of glucose dysregulation are associated with subclinical cardiac dysfunction, as assessed by speckle-tracking echocardiography, in an older population. METHODS: Participants were men and women in the Cardiovascular Health Study, age 65+ years and without coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, or heart failure at baseline. We evaluated fasting insulin resistance (IR) with the homeostatic model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and estimated the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index (ISI) and insulin secretion with an oral glucose tolerance test. Systolic and diastolic cardiac mechanics were measured with speckle-tracking analysis of echocardiograms. Multi-variable adjusted linear regression models were used to investigate associations of insulin measures and cardiac mechanics. RESULTS: Mean age for the 2433 included participants was 72.0 years, 33.6% were male, and 3.7% were black. After adjustment for age, sex, race, site, speckle-tracking analyst, echo image and quality score, higher HOMA-IR, lower Matsuda ISI, and higher insulin secretion were each associated with worse left ventricular (LV) longitudinal strain and LV early diastolic strain rate (p-value < 0.005); however, associations were significantly attenuated after adjustment for waist circumference, with the exception of Matsuda ISI and LV longitudinal strain (increase in strain per standard deviation increment in Matsuda ISI = 0.18; 95% confidence interval = 0.03-0.33). CONCLUSION: In this cross-sectional study of older adults, associations of glucose dysregulation with subclinical cardiac dysfunction were largely attenuated after adjusting for central adiposity.
Keywords: Aged; Cross-Sectional Studies; Female; Glucose; Humans; Insulin Resistance; Male; Ventricular Dysfunction, Left; Ventricular Function, Left

Intake and Sources of Dietary Fiber, Inflammation, and Cardiovascular Disease in Older US Adults. - Shivakoti, Rupak; Biggs, Mary L; Djoussé, Luc; Durda, Peter Jon; Kizer, Jorge R; Psaty, Bruce; Reiner, Alex P; Tracy, Russell P; Siscovick, David; Mukamal, Kenneth J (JAMA Netw Open, 2022)
Importance: Higher intake of dietary fiber has been associated with lower inflammation, but whether there are differences in this association by source of dietary fiber (ie, cereal, vegetable, or fruit) has not been studied to date. Objectives: To evaluate the associations of total fiber intake and source (ie, cereal, vegetable, and fruit fiber intake) with inflammation and to evaluate whether inflammation mediates the inverse association between dietary fiber intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Design, Setting, and Participants: At the baseline visit (1989-1990) of 4125 adults aged 65 years or older in an ongoing US cohort study, dietary intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire among study participants without prevalent CVD (stroke and myocardial infarction) at enrollment. Inflammation was assessed from blood samples collected at baseline with immunoassays for markers of inflammation. Multivariable linear regression models tested the association of dietary fiber intake with inflammation. Also assessed was whether each inflammatory marker and its composite derived from principal component analysis mediated the association of baseline cereal fiber intake with development of CVD (stroke, myocardial infarction, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular death) through June 2015. Data from June 1, 1989, through June 30, 2015, were analyzed. Exposures: Total fiber intake and sources of fiber (cereal, vegetable, and fruit). Main Outcomes and Measures: Systemic markers of inflammation. Cardiovascular disease was the outcome in the mediation analysis. Results: Of 4125 individuals, 0.1% (n = 3) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 4.4% (n = 183) were Black, 0.3% (n = 12) were Native American, 95.0% (n = 3918) were White, and 0.2% (n = 9) were classified as other. Among these 4125 individuals (2473 women [60%]; mean [SD] age, 72.6 [5.5] years; 183 Black individuals [4.4%]; and 3942 individuals of other races and ethnicitites [95.6%] [ie, race and ethnicity other than Black, self-classified by participant]), an increase in total fiber intake of 5 g/d was associated with significantly lower concentrations of C-reactive protein (adjusted mean difference, -0.05 SD; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.01 SD; P = .007) and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (adjusted mean difference, -0.04 SD; 95% CI, -0.07 to -0.01 SD; P < .02) but with higher concentrations of soluble CD163 (adjusted mean difference, 0.05 SD; 95% CI, 0.02-0.09 SD; P = .005). Among fiber sources, only cereal fiber was consistently associated with lower inflammation. Similarly, cereal fiber intake was associated with lower CVD incidence (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81-1.00; 1941 incident cases). The proportion of the observed association of cereal fiber with CVD mediated by inflammatory markers ranged from 1.5% for interleukin 18 to 14.2% for C-reactive protein, and 16.1% for their primary principal component. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that cereal fiber intake was associated with lower levels of various inflammatory markers and lower risk of CVD and that inflammation mediated approximately one-sixth of the association between cereal fiber intake and CVD.
Keywords: Adult; Aged; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cohort Studies; Dietary Fiber; Female; Humans; Inflammation; Middle Aged; Risk Factors

Longitudinal Changes in Hearing and Visual Impairments and Risk of Dementia in Older Adults in the United States. - Hwang, Phillip H; Longstreth, W T; Thielke, Stephen M; Francis, Courtney E; Carone, Marco; Kuller, Lewis H; Fitzpatrick, Annette L (JAMA Netw Open, 2022)
Importance: Hearing and vision problems are individually associated with increased dementia risk, but the impact of having concurrent hearing and vision deficits, ie, dual sensory impairment (DSI), on risk of dementia, including its major subtypes Alzheimer disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD), is not well known. Objective: To evaluate whether DSI is associated with incident dementia in older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) was conducted between 1992 and 1999, with as many as 8 years of follow-up. The multicenter, population-based sample was recruited from Medicare eligibility files in 4 US communities with academic medical centers. Of 5888 participants aged 65 years and older in CHS, 3602 underwent cranial magnetic resonance imaging and completed the modified Mini-Mental State Examination in 1992 to 1994 as part of the CHS Cognition Study. A total of 227 participants were excluded due to prevalent dementia, leaving a total of 3375 participants without dementia at study baseline. The study hypothesis was that DSI would be associated with increased risk of dementia compared with no sensory impairment. The association between the duration of DSI with risk of dementia was also evaluated. Data analysis was conducted from November 2019 to February 2020. Exposures: Hearing and vision impairments were collected via self-report at baseline and as many as 5 follow-up visits. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause dementia, AD, and VaD, classified by a multidisciplinary committee using standardized criteria. Results: A total of 2927 participants with information on hearing and vision at all available study visits were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 74.6 [4.8] years; 1704 [58.2%] women; 455 [15.5%] African American or Black; 2472 [85.5%] White). Compared with no sensory impairment, DSI was associated with increased risk of all-cause dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 2.60; 95% CI, 1.66-2.06; P < .001), AD (HR, 3.67; 95% CI, 2.04-6.60; P < .001) but not VaD (HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.00-4.09; P = .05). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, DSI was associated with increased risk of dementia, particularly AD. Evaluation of hearing and vision in older adults may help to identify those at high risk of developing dementia.
Keywords: Aged; Alzheimer Disease; Cohort Studies; Female; Hearing; Hearing Loss; Humans; Male; Medicare; Prospective Studies; United States; Vision Disorders

Monocyte subsets, T cell activation profiles, and stroke in men and women: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Health Study. - Feinstein, Matthew J; Bůzková, Petra; Olson, Nels C; Doyle, Margaret F; Sitlani, Colleen M; Fohner, Alison E; Huber, Sally A; Floyd, James; Sinha, Arjun; Thorp, Edward B; Landay, Alan; Freiberg, Matthew S; et al. (Atherosclerosis, 2022)
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite mechanistic data implicating unresolving inflammation in stroke pathogenesis, data regarding circulating immune cell phenotypes - key determinants of inflammation propagation versus resolution - and incident stroke are lacking. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively define associations of circulating immune phenotypes and activation profiles with incident stroke. METHODS: We investigated circulating leukocyte phenotypes and activation profiles with incident adjudicated stroke in 2104 diverse adults from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed over a median of 16.6 years. Cryopreserved cells from the MESA baseline examination were thawed and myeloid and lymphoid lineage cell subsets were measured using polychromatic flow cytometry and intracellular cytokine activation staining. We analyzed multivariable-adjusted associations of cell phenotypes, as a proportion of parent cell subsets, with incident stroke (overall) and ischemic stroke using Cox regression models. RESULTS: We observed associations of intermediate monocytes, early-activated CD4 T cells, and both CD4 and CD8 T cells producing interleukin-4 after cytokine stimulation (T and T, respectively) with higher risk for incident stroke; effect sizes ranged from 35% to 62% relative increases in risk for stroke. Meanwhile, differentiated and memory T cell phenotypes were associated with lower risk for incident stroke. In sex-stratified analyses, positive and negative associations were especially strong among men but null among women. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating IL-4 producing T cells and intermediate monocytes were significantly associated with incident stroke over nearly two decades of follow-up. These associations were stronger among men and not among women. Further translational studies are warranted to define more precise targets for prognosis and intervention.
Keywords: Atherosclerosis; CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes; CD8-Positive T-Lymphocytes; Cytokines; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Humans; Incidence; Inflammation; Interleukin-4; Ischemic Stroke; Lymphocyte Activation; Male; Monocytes; Stroke; T-Lymphocyte Subsets

Plasma proteomic signature of decline in gait speed and grip strength. - Liu, Xiaojuan; Pan, Stephanie; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Psaty, Bruce M; Austin, Thomas R; Newman, Anne B; Sanders, Jason L; Wu, Chenkai; Tracy, Russell P; Gerszten, Robert E; Odden, Michelle C (Aging Cell, 2022)
The biological mechanisms underlying decline in physical function with age remain unclear. We examined the plasma proteomic profile associated with longitudinal changes in physical function measured by gait speed and grip strength in community-dwelling adults. We applied an aptamer-based platform to assay 1154 plasma proteins on 2854 participants (60% women, aged 76 years) in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) in 1992-1993 and 1130 participants (55% women, aged 54 years) in the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS) in 1991-1995. Gait speed and grip strength were measured annually for 7 years in CHS and at cycles 7 (1998-2001) and 8 (2005-2008) in FOS. The associations of individual protein levels (log-transformed and standardized) with longitudinal changes in gait speed and grip strength in two populations were examined separately by linear mixed-effects models. Meta-analyses were implemented using random-effects models and corrected for multiple testing. We found that plasma levels of 14 and 18 proteins were associated with changes in gait speed and grip strength, respectively (corrected p < 0.05). The proteins most strongly associated with gait speed decline were GDF-15 (Meta-analytic p = 1.58 × 10 ), pleiotrophin (1.23 × 10 ), and TIMP-1 (5.97 × 10 ). For grip strength decline, the strongest associations were for carbonic anhydrase III (1.09 × 10 ), CDON (2.38 × 10 ), and SMOC1 (7.47 × 10 ). Several statistically significant proteins are involved in the inflammatory responses or antagonism of activin by follistatin pathway. These novel proteomic biomarkers and pathways should be further explored as future mechanisms and targets for age-related functional decline.
Keywords: Adult; Female; Gait; Hand Strength; Humans; Independent Living; Male; Proteomics; Walking Speed

Pooled Cohort Probability Score for Subclinical Airflow Obstruction. - Bhatt, Surya P; Balte, Pallavi P; Schwartz, Joseph E; Jaeger, Byron C; Cassano, Patricia A; Chaves, Paulo H; Couper, David; Jacobs, David R; Kalhan, Ravi; Kaplan, Robert; Lloyd-Jones, Donald; Newman, Anne B; et al. (Ann Am Thorac Soc, 2022)
Early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a public health priority. Airflow obstruction is the single most important risk factor for adverse COPD outcomes, but spirometry is not routinely recommended for screening. To describe the burden of subclinical airflow obstruction (SAO) and to develop a probability score for SAO to inform potential detection and prevention programs. Lung function and clinical data were harmonized and pooled across nine U.S. general population cohorts. Adults with respiratory symptoms, inhaler use, or prior diagnosis of COPD or asthma were excluded. A probability score for prevalent SAO (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70) was developed via hierarchical group-lasso regularization from clinical variables in strata of sex and smoking status, and its discriminative accuracy for SAO was assessed in the pooled cohort as well as in an external validation cohort (NHANES [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey] 2011-2012). Incident hospitalizations and deaths due to COPD (respiratory events) were defined by adjudication or administrative criteria in four of nine cohorts. Of 33,546 participants (mean age 52 yr, 54% female, 44% non-Hispanic White), 4,424 (13.2%) had prevalent SAO. The incidence of respiratory events ( = 14,024) was threefold higher in participants with SAO versus those without (152 vs. 39 events/10,000 person-years). The probability score, which was based on six commonly available variables (age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, and smoking pack-years) was well calibrated and showed excellent discrimination in both the testing sample (C-statistic, 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.82) and in NHANES (C-statistic, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.86). Among participants with predicted probabilities ⩾ 15%, 3.2 would need to undergo spirometry to detect one case of SAO. Adults with SAO demonstrate excess respiratory hospitalization and mortality. A probability score for SAO using commonly available clinical risk factors may be suitable for targeting screening and primary prevention strategies.
Keywords: Adult; Female; Forced Expiratory Volume; Humans; Lung; Male; Middle Aged; Nutrition Surveys; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive; Risk Factors; Spirometry; Vital Capacity

Trimethylamine N-oxide and hip fracture and bone mineral density in older adults: The cardiovascular health study. - Elam, Rachel E; Bůzková, Petra; Barzilay, Joshua I; Wang, Zeneng; Nemet, Ina; Budoff, Matthew J; Cauley, Jane A; Fink, Howard A; Lee, Yujin; Robbins, John A; Wang, Meng; Hazen, Stanley L; et al. (Bone, 2022)
CONTEXT: Gut microbiota-derived metabolite trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) may adversely affect bone by inducing oxidative stress. Whether this translates into increased fracture risk in older adults is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: Determine the associations of plasma TMAO with hip fracture and bone mineral density (BMD) in older adults. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cox hazard models and linear regression stratified by sex examined the associations of TMAO with hip fracture and BMD in the longitudinal cohort of the Cardiovascular Health Study. PARTICIPANTS: 5019 U.S. adults aged ≥65 years. EXPOSURE: Plasma TMAO. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident hip fractures; total hip BMD dual x-ray absorptiometry in a subset (n = 1400). RESULTS: Six hundred sixty-six incident hip fractures occurred during up to 26 years of follow-up (67,574 person-years). After multivariable adjustment, TMAO was not significantly associated with hip fracture (women: hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 1.00[0.92,1.09] per TMAO doubling; men: 1.12[0.95,1.33]). TMAO was also not associated with total hip BMD (women: BMD difference [95% CI] of 0.42 g/cm*100 [-0.34,1.17] per TMAO doubling; men: 0.19[-1.04,1.42]). In exploratory analyses, we found an interaction between body mass index (BMI) and the association of TMAO with hip fracture (P < 0.01). Higher TMAO was significantly associated with risk of hip fracture in adults with overweight or obesity (BMI ≥ 25) (HR [95% CI]:1.17[1.05,1.31]), but not normal or underweight. CONCLUSIONS: Among older US men and women, TMAO was not significantly associated with risk of hip fracture or BMD overall. Exploratory analyses suggested a significant association between higher TMAO and hip fracture when BMI was elevated, which merits further study.
Keywords: Absorptiometry, Photon; Aged; Bone Density; Female; Hip Fractures; Humans; Male; Methylamines; Risk Factors

Association between 5-year change in cardiovascular risk and the incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases: a multi-cohort study. - Yi, Jiayi; Wang, Lili; Guo, Xinli; Ren, Xiangpeng (J Transl Med, 2023)
BACKGROUND: The influence of the historical cardiovascular risk status on future risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the association between 5-year changes in cardiovascular risk and ASCVD incidence. METHODS: We analyzed pooled data from seven community-based prospective cohort studies with up to 20 years of follow-up data. The study populations included White or Black participants aged 40-75 years without prevalent ASCVD. Cardiovascular risk was assessed using the pooled cohort equation and was categorized into non-high (< 20%) or high risk (≥ 20%). Changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk over a 5-year interval were recorded. The main outcome was incident ASCVD. RESULTS: Among 11,026 participants (mean [SD] age, 60.0 [8.1] years), 4272 (38.7%) were female and 3127 (28.4%) were Black. During a median follow-up period of 9.9 years, 2560 (23.2%) ASCVD events occurred. In comparison with individuals showing a consistently high CVD risk, participants whose CVD risk changed from non-high to high (hazard ratio [HR], 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.77) or high to non-high (HR, 0.57; 95% CI 0.41-0.80) and those with a consistently non-high risk (HR, 0.33; 95% CI 0.29-0.37) had a lower risk of incident ASCVD. In comparison with individuals showing a consistently non-high CVD risk, participants whose CVD risk changed from high to non-high (HR, 1.74; 95% CI 1.26-2.41) or from non-high to high risk (HR, 2.04; 95% CI 1.84-2.27) and those with a consistently high risk (HR 3.03; 95% CI 2.69-3.42) also showed an increased risk of incident ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with the same current CVD risk status but different historical CVD risks exhibited varying risks of future ASCVD incidents. Dynamic risk evaluation may enable more accurate cardiovascular risk stratification, and decision-making regarding preventive interventions should take the historical risk status into account.
Keywords: Atherosclerosis; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cohort Studies; Female; Heart Disease Risk Factors; Humans; Incidence; Male; Middle Aged; Prospective Studies; Risk Factors

Association of Obesity With Cognitive Decline in Black and White Americans. - Quaye, Emmanuel; Galecki, Andrzej T; Tilton, Nicholas; Whitney, Rachael; Briceño, Emily M; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Griswold, Michael; Gross, Alden L; Heckbert, Susan R; Hughes, Timothy M; et al. (Neurology, 2023)
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There are disparities in the prevalence of obesity by race, and the relationship between obesity and cognitive decline is unclear. The objective of this study was to determine whether obesity is independently associated with cognitive decline and whether the association between obesity and cognitive decline differs in Black and White adults. We hypothesized that obesity is associated with greater cognitive decline compared with normal weight and that the effect of obesity on cognitive decline is more pronounced in Black adults compared with their White counterparts. METHODS: We pooled data from 28,867 participants free of stroke and dementia (mean, SD: age 61 [10.7] years at the first cognitive assessment, 55% female, 24% Black, and 29% obese) from 6 cohorts. The primary outcome was the annual change in global cognition. We performed linear mixed-effects models with and without time-varying cumulative mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). Global cognition was set to a t-score metric (mean 50, SD 10) at a participant's first cognitive assessment; a 1-point difference represents a 0.1 SD difference in global cognition across the 6 cohorts. The median follow-up was 6.5 years (25th percentile, 75th percentile: 5.03, 20.15). RESULTS: Obese participants had lower baseline global cognition than normal-weight participants (difference in intercepts, -0.36 [95% CI, -0.46 to -0.17]; < 0.001). This difference in baseline global cognition was attenuated but was borderline significant after accounting for SBP and FPG (adjusted differences in intercepts, -0.19 [95% CI, -0.39 to 0.002]; = 0.05). There was no difference in the rate of decline in global cognition between obese and normal-weight participants (difference in slope, 0.009 points/year [95% CI, -0.009 to 0.03]; = 0.32). After accounting for SBP and FPG, obese participants had a slower decline in global cognition (adjusted difference in slope, 0.03 points/year slower [95% CI, 0.01 to 0.05]; < 0.001). There was no evidence that race modified the association between body mass index and global cognitive decline ( = 0.34). DISCUSSION: These results suggest that obesity is associated with lower initial cognitive scores and may potentially attenuate declines in cognition after accounting for BP and FPG.
Keywords: Aged; Black or African American; Cognition; Cognitive Dysfunction; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Obesity; Risk Factors; United States; White

CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, and LIBRA Risk Scores for Estimating Dementia Risk. - Huque, Md Hamidul; Kootar, Scherazad; Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Han, S Duke; Carlson, Michelle C; Lopez, Oscar L; Bennett, David A; Peters, Ruth; Anstey, Kaarin J (JAMA Netw Open, 2023)
IMPORTANCE: While the Australian National University-Alzheimer Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE), and Lifestyle for Brain Health (LIBRA) dementia risk tools have been widely used, a large body of new evidence has emerged since their publication. Recently, Cognitive Health and Dementia Risk Index (CogDrisk) and CogDrisk for Alzheimer disease (CogDrisk-AD) risk tools have been developed for the assessment of dementia and AD risk, respectively, using contemporary evidence; comparison of the relative performance of these risk tools is limited. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, LIBRA, and modified LIBRA (LIBRA with age and sex estimates from ANU-ADRI) in estimating dementia and AD risks (with CogDrisk-AD and ANU-ADRI). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cohort study obtained data from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP), the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study (CHS-CS), and the Health and Retirement Study-Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (HRS-ADAMS). Participants who were free of dementia at baseline were included. The factors were component variables in the risk tools that included self-reported baseline demographics, medical risk factors, and lifestyle habits. The study was conducted between November 2021 and March 2023, and statistical analysis was performed from January to June 2023. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk scores were calculated based on available factors in each of these cohorts. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to measure the performance of each risk score. Multiple imputation was used to assess whether missing data may have affected estimates for dementia risk. RESULTS: Among the 6107 participants in 3 validation cohorts included for this study, 2184 participants without dementia at baseline were available from MAP (mean [SD] age, 80.0 [7.6] years; 1606 [73.5%] female), 548 participants without dementia at baseline were available from HRS-ADAMS (mean [SD] age, 79.5 [6.3] years; 288 [52.5%] female), and 3375 participants without dementia at baseline were available from CHS-CS (mean [SD] age, 74.8 [4.9] years; 1994 [59.1%] female). In all 3 cohorts, a similar AUC for dementia was obtained using CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, and modified LIBRA (MAP cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; HRS-ADAMS cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71-0.79]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.70-0.78]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71-0.79]; CHS-CS cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.67-0.72]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.66-0.72]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.68-0.73]). The CAIDE and LIBRA also provided similar but lower AUCs than the 3 aforementioned tools (eg, MAP cohort: CAIDE AUC, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.46-0.54]; LIBRA AUC, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.48-0.57]). The performance of CogDrisk-AD and ANU-ADRI in estimating AD risks was also similar. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD performed similarly to ANU-ADRI in estimating dementia and AD risks. These results suggest that CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD, with a greater range of modifiable risk factors compared with other risk tools in this study, may be more informative for risk reduction.
Keywords: Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Alzheimer Disease; Australia; Cohort Studies; Female; Heart Disease Risk Factors; Humans; Male; Risk Factors

Effect of 2022 ACC/AHA/HFSA Criteria on Stages of Heart Failure in a Pooled Community Cohort. - Mohebi, Reza; Wang, Dongyu; Lau, Emily S; Parekh, Juhi K; Allen, Norrina; Psaty, Bruce M; Benjamin, Emelia J; Levy, Daniel; Wang, Thomas J; Shah, Sanjiv J; Gottdiener, John S; Januzzi, James L; et al. (J Am Coll Cardiol, 2023)
BACKGROUND: The 2022 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA)/Heart Failure Society of America (HFSA) clinical practice guideline proposed an updated definition for heart failure (HF) stages. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to compare prevalence and prognosis of HF stages according to classification/definition originally described in 2013 and 2022 ACC/AHA/HFSA definitions. METHODS: Study participants from 3 longitudinal cohorts (the MESA [Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis], CHS [Cardiovascular Health Study], and the FHS [Framingham Heart Study]), were categorized into 4 HF stages according to the 2013 and 2022 criteria. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess predictors of progression to symptomatic HF and adverse clinical outcomes associated with each HF stage. RESULTS: Among 11,618 study participants, according to the 2022 staging, 1,943 (16.7%) were healthy, 4,348 (37.4%) were in stage A (at risk), 5,019 (43.2%) were in stage B (pre-HF), and 308 (2.7%) were in stage C/D (symptomatic HF). Compared to the classification/definition originally described in 2013, the 2022 ACC/AHA/HFSA approach resulted in a higher proportion of individuals with stage B HF (increase from 15.9% to 43.2%); this shift disproportionately involved women as well as Hispanic and Black individuals. Despite the 2022 criteria designating a greater proportion of individuals as stage B, the relative risk of progression to symptomatic HF remained similar (HR: 10.61; 95% CI: 9.00-12.51; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: New standards for HF staging resulted in a substantial shift of community-based individuals from stage A to stage B. Those with stage B HF in the new system were at high risk for progression to symptomatic HF.
Keywords: American Heart Association; Atherosclerosis; Cardiology; Female; Heart Failure; Humans; Longitudinal Studies; Prognosis; United States

Evaluating the use of blood pressure polygenic risk scores across race/ethnic background groups. - Kurniansyah, Nuzulul; Goodman, Matthew O; Khan, Alyna T; Wang, Jiongming; Feofanova, Elena; Bis, Joshua C; Wiggins, Kerri L; Huffman, Jennifer E; Kelly, Tanika; Elfassy, Tali; Guo, Xiuqing; Palmas, Walter; et al. (Nat Commun, 2023)
We assess performance and limitations of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for multiple blood pressure (BP) phenotypes in diverse population groups. We compare "clumping-and-thresholding" (PRSice2) and LD-based (LDPred2) methods to construct PRSs from each of multiple GWAS, as well as multi-PRS approaches that sum PRSs with and without weights, including PRS-CSx. We use datasets from the MGB Biobank, TOPMed study, UK biobank, and from All of Us to train, assess, and validate PRSs in groups defined by self-reported race/ethnic background (Asian, Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White). For both SBP and DBP, the PRS-CSx based PRS, constructed as a weighted sum of PRSs developed from multiple independent GWAS, perform best across all race/ethnic backgrounds. Stratified analysis in All of Us shows that PRSs are better predictive of BP in females compared to males, individuals without obesity, and middle-aged (40-60 years) compared to older and younger individuals.
Keywords: Blood Pressure; Ethnicity; Female; Genetic Predisposition to Disease; Genome-Wide Association Study; Humans; Male; Multifactorial Inheritance; Population Health; Risk Factors

High-risk carotid plaques and incident ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation in the Cardiovascular Health Study. - Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Thomas, Gijo; Kamtchum-Tatuene, Joseph; Middeldorp, Melissa E; Sanders, Prashanthan (Eur J Neurol, 2023)
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Whether carotid artery disease could improve stroke risk stratification tools in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. This study was undertaken to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke associated with occlusive and nonocclusive carotid atherosclerotic disease in patients with AF in the prospective population-based Cardiovascular Health Study. METHODS: We included participants aged ≥65 years with AF. We used multivariable Cox regression analysis to explore the risk of ischemic stroke associated with the percentage of carotid stenosis, plaque irregularity, echogenicity, and vulnerability (markedly irregular, ulcerated, or hypoechoic plaques). RESULTS: A total of 1398 participants were included (55.2% female, 61.7% aged 65-74 years). The maximum carotid stenosis was <50%, 50%-99%, and 100% in 94.5%, 5%, and 0.5% of participants, respectively. High-risk plaques based on echogenicity and plaque irregularity were found in 25.6% and 8.9% of participants, respectively. After a median follow-up of 10.9 years (interquartile range = 7.5-15.6), 298 ischemic strokes were recorded. There was no difference in the incidence of ischemic stroke according to the degree of carotid artery stenosis (p = 0.44), plaque echogenicity (low vs. high risk, p = 0.68), plaque irregularity (low vs. high risk, p = 0.55), and plaque vulnerability (p = 0.86). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.28, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.40, p < 0.001). Both maximum grade of stenosis and plaque vulnerability were not associated with incident ischemic stroke (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Neither the degree of carotid stenosis nor the presence of vulnerable plaques was associated with incident ischemic stroke in this cohort of individuals with AF. This suggests that carotid disease was probably not a significant contributor to ischemic stroke in this population.
Keywords: Atrial Fibrillation; Carotid Artery Diseases; Carotid Stenosis; Female; Humans; Ischemic Stroke; Male; Plaque, Atherosclerotic; Prospective Studies; Risk Factors; Stroke

Plasma Ceramides and Sphingomyelins and Sudden Cardiac Death in the Cardiovascular Health Study. - Bockus, Lee B; Jensen, Paul N; Fretts, Amanda M; Hoofnagle, Andrew N; McKnight, Barbara; Sitlani, Colleen M; Siscovick, David S; King, Irena B; Psaty, Bruce M; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Lemaitre, Rozenn N (JAMA Netw Open, 2023)
IMPORTANCE: Sphingolipids, including ceramides and sphingomyelins, may influence the pathophysiology and risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) through multiple biological activities. Whether the length of the fatty acid acylated to plasma sphingolipid species is associated with SCD risk is not known. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the saturated fatty acid length of plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins influences the association with SCD risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of sphingolipid species with SCD risk. The study population included 4612 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study followed up prospectively for a median of 10.2 (IQR, 5.5-11.6) years. Baseline data were collected from January 1992 to December 1995 during annual examinations. Data were analyzed from February 11, 2020, to September 9, 2023. EXPOSURES: Eight plasma sphingolipid species (4 ceramides and 4 sphingomyelins) with saturated fatty acids of 16, 20, 22, and 24 carbons. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Association of plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins with saturated fatty acids of different lengths with SCD risk. RESULTS: Among the 4612 CHS participants included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 77 [5] years; 2724 [59.1%] women; 6 [0.1%] American Indian; 4 [0.1%] Asian; 718 [15.6%] Black; 3869 [83.9%] White, and 15 [0.3%] Other), 215 SCD cases were identified. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins with palmitic acid (Cer-16 and SM-16) were associated with higher SCD risk per higher SD of log sphingolipid levels (hazard ratio [HR] for Cer-16, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.12-1.59]; HR for SM-16, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.12-1.67]). Associations did not differ by baseline age, sex, race, or body mass index. No significant association of SCD with sphingolipids with very-long-chain saturated fatty acids was observed after correction for multiple testing (HR for ceramide with arachidic acid, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.90-1.24]; HR for ceramide with behenic acid, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.10]; HR for ceramide with lignoceric acid, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.09]; HR for sphingomyelin with arachidic acid, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.71-0.98]; HR for sphingomyelin with behenic acid, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.70-1.00]; HR for sphingomyelin with lignoceric acid, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.72-1.03]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this large, population-based cohort study of SCD identified that higher plasma levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 were associated with higher risk of SCD. Future studies are needed to examine the underlying mechanism of these associations.
Keywords: Aged; Ceramides; Cohort Studies; Death, Sudden, Cardiac; Eicosanoic Acids; Fatty Acids; Female; Humans; Male; Sphingolipids; Sphingomyelins

Plasma Trimethylamine--Oxide and Incident Ischemic Stroke: The Cardiovascular Health Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. - Lemaitre, Rozenn N; Jensen, Paul N; Wang, Zeneng; Fretts, Amanda M; Sitlani, Colleen M; Nemet, Ina; Sotoodehnia, Nona; de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C; Zhu, Weifei; Budoff, Matt; Longstreth, W T; Psaty, Bruce M; et al. (J Am Heart Assoc, 2023)
Background The association of circulating trimethylamine--oxide (TMAO) with stroke has received limited attention. To address this gap, we examined the associations of serial measures of plasma TMAO with incident ischemic stroke. Methods and Results We used a prospective cohort design with data pooled from 2 cohorts. The settings were the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), a cohort of older adults, and the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), both in the United States. We measured plasma concentrations of TMAO at baseline and again during the follow-up using high-performance liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. We assessed the association of plasma TMAO with incident ischemic stroke using proportional hazards regression adjusted for risk factors. The combined cohorts included 11 785 participants without a history of stroke, on average 73 (CHS) and 62 (MESA) years old at baseline, including 60% (CHS) and 53% (MESA) women. We identified 1031 total incident ischemic strokes during a median 15-year follow-up in the combined cohorts. In multivariable analyses, TMAO was significantly associated with incident ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratios comparing a doubling of TMAO: 1.11 [1.03-1.18], =0.004). The association was linear over the range of TMAO concentrations and appeared restricted to those without diagnosed coronary heart disease. An association with hemorrhagic stroke was not found. Conclusions Plasma TMAO levels are associated with incident ischemic stroke in a diverse population. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005133.
Keywords: Aged; Atherosclerosis; Female; Humans; Ischemic Stroke; Methylamines; Oxides; Prospective Studies; Risk Factors; Stroke; United States

Substitution of self-reported measures for objectively assessed grip strength and slow walk in the Physical Frailty Phenotype: ramifications for validity. - Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Tian, Jing; Buta, Brian; Walston, Jeremy; Xue, Qian-Li (BMC Geriatr, 2023)
BACKGROUND: Frailty assessment promises to identify older adults at risk for adverse consequences following stressors and target interventions to improve health outcomes. The Physical Frailty Phenotype (PFP) is a widely-studied, well validated assessment but incorporates performance-based slow walk and grip strength criteria that challenge its use in some clinical settings. Variants replacing performance-based elements with self-reported proxies have been proposed. Our study evaluated whether commonly available disability self-reports could be substituted for the performance-based criteria in the PFP while still identifying as "frail" the same subpopulations of individuals. METHODS: Parallel analyses were conducted in 3393 female and 2495 male Cardiovascular Health Study, Round 2 participants assessed in 1989-90. Candidate self-reported proxies for the phenotype's "slowness" and "weakness" criteria were evaluated for comparable prevalence and agreement by mode of measurement. For best-performing candidates: Frailty status (3 + positive criteria out of 5) was compared for prevalence and agreement between the PFP and mostly self-reported versions. Personal characteristics were compared between those adjudicated as frail by (a) only a self-reported version; (b) only the PFP; (c) both, using bivariable analyses and multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Self-reported difficulty walking ½ mile was selected as a proxy for the phenotype's slowness criterion. Two self-reported weakness proxies were examined: difficulty transferring from a bed or chair or gripping with hands, and difficulty as just defined or in lifting a 10-pound bag. Prevalences matched to within 4% between self-reported and performance-based criteria in the whole sample, but in all cases the self-reported prevalence for women exceeded that for men by 11% or more. Cross-modal agreement was moderate, with by-criterion and frailty-wide Kappa statistics of 0.55-0.60 in all cases. Frail subgroups (a), (b), (c) were independently discriminated (p < 0.05) by race, BMI, and depression in women; by age in men; and by self-reported health for both. CONCLUSIONS: Commonly used self-reported disability items cannot be assumed to stand in for performance-based criteria in the PFP. We found subpopulations identified as frail by resultant phenotypes versus the original phenotype to systematically differ. Work to develop self-reported proxies that more closely replicate their objective phenotypic counterparts than standard disability self-reports is needed.
Keywords: Advance Directives; Female; Frailty; Hand Strength; Humans; Male; Phenotype; Self Report

Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations. - Khan, Sadiya S; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Grams, Morgan E; Surapaneni, Aditya; Blaha, Michael J; Carson, April P; Chang, Alexander R; Ciemins, Elizabeth; Go, Alan S; Gutierrez, Orlando M; et al. (Circulation, 2024)
BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; =0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.
Keywords: Adult; Aged; Albumins; American Heart Association; Atherosclerosis; Cardiovascular Diseases; Creatinine; Female; Glycated Hemoglobin; Heart Failure; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors

X-chromosome and kidney function: evidence from a multi-trait genetic analysis of 908,697 individuals reveals sex-specific and sex-differential findings in genes regulated by androgen response elements. - Scholz, Markus; Horn, Katrin; Pott, Janne; Wuttke, Matthias; Kühnapfel, Andreas; Nasr, M Kamal; Kirsten, Holger; Li, Yong; Hoppmann, Anselm; Gorski, Mathias; Ghasemi, Sahar; Li, Man; et al. (Nat Commun, 2024)
X-chromosomal genetic variants are understudied but can yield valuable insights into sexually dimorphic human traits and diseases. We performed a sex-stratified cross-ancestry X-chromosome-wide association meta-analysis of seven kidney-related traits (n = 908,697), identifying 23 loci genome-wide significantly associated with two of the traits: 7 for uric acid and 16 for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), including four novel eGFR loci containing the functionally plausible prioritized genes ACSL4, CLDN2, TSPAN6 and the female-specific DRP2. Further, we identified five novel sex-interactions, comprising male-specific effects at FAM9B and AR/EDA2R, and three sex-differential findings with larger genetic effect sizes in males at DCAF12L1 and MST4 and larger effect sizes in females at HPRT1. All prioritized genes in loci showing significant sex-interactions were located next to androgen response elements (ARE). Five ARE genes showed sex-differential expressions. This study contributes new insights into sex-dimorphisms of kidney traits along with new prioritized gene targets for further molecular research.
Keywords: Androgens; Chromosomes, Human, X; Female; Genetic Predisposition to Disease; Genome-Wide Association Study; Humans; Kidney; Male; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; Response Elements; Tetraspanins