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Stroke Risk Model

A Prognostic Model for Stroke Risk in the Elderly: The stroke model below gives an approximate prediction of the risk of stroke over the next 5 years for people over 70 who have not had a stroke before. This is not a substitute for advice from a medical professional. Only your doctor can tell you what treatments may be suitable to reduce your risk of stroke.

The maximum risk score in the CHS cohort was approximately 50 points. The stroke model has not been tested at higher risks than this and may become unreliable. The construction of the model is described in the paper S-63, Prediction of the Risk of Stroke in the Elderly.

 

 

 

Risk points

 

Risk points

Systolic pressure   Age

Men

Women

<120mmHg

0

70 and under

0

0

120-129

1

71-77

3

5

130-139

3

78-84

6

10

140-149

5

85-91

9

15

150-159

7

92+

12

20

160-169

9

History of heart disease

5

1

170-179

11

Atrial Fibrillation by ECG

16

5

180+

13

     

15 ft walk time:

1/sec
(max 20)

Total Risk Score

5 year stroke risk

0-5

2.0%

1.5%

LVH by ECG

6

6-10

3.2%

2.0%

Creatinine > 1.25 mg/dl

2

11-15

5.0%

3.5%

ADA Diabetes grade:

 

15-20

7.7%

5.5%

Impaired fasting glucose

4

21-25

12%

8.5%

Diabetes

6

26-30

18%

13%

   

31-35

26%

20%

   

36-40

38%

29%

   

41-45

53%

41%